Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

There is also no evidence of the wave unwinding - and with another "beat the record at any cost" quarter, they will try to deliver as much as possible. This means wave good bye to wave ending plans

Note that while the U.S. wave probably won't be unwound in Q2 (as expected), the crazy global end of Q1 rush probably won't be repeated.

So part of the wave might be unwound: in-transit might go from 10k to 15k?

 

[dqd88]

Yes, it's your rose colored glasses - things can always get worse, sometimes much worse: high-tech human civilization is a marvel of defying entropy.

If you feel the urge to roll the dice I'd advise against using margin and would suggest using vanilla call options instead, as far out dated as possible.

If we are indeed around +20% from the bottom it's still a good moment to buy 1-2 years out LEAPs. You can leverage your money up to 1:100 that way, by buying increasingly less likely strike prices. (Once we are above $300 again don't forget those protective PUTs either for your vanilla shares position.)

If you are right you'll also have the help of ~45 million shares worth of shorts who sold on the way down and who will be covering, helping the stock price on the way up.

If you are right you can earn much more than with margin - but if you are wrong you'll know in advance the amount of money you have lost. With margin and a black swan event you can end up not just losing 100% of your investment but you can lose more and can end up being in serious debt.

Thanks for the advice. I may just print this out and use it as a guide. I have hesitated getting into options as it's just one more thing to learn and I don't know that I can afford the time, though I do see the utility/advantages of options. It's hard enough just keeping up on the reading about Tesla.

 

[CorneliusXX]

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I think Tesla could produce substantially better press releases and informational packets for lazy journamalists to use. This is quite different from paid advertising. They may even be doing it, hiring the "absolute unit" guy and so on.

It's really communications and is not so different from customer support.

I am against paying for advertising placement.

Agreed, this seems like the best low cost entry into controlling the narrative. If future articles are written that state information going against these information packets the relevant journalists can be easily called out for being lazy/dishonest.

If there is little change in the narrative then an alternative strategy can be devised.

 

[dqd88]

I also came away with an overall positive feeling, but one thing is nagging and that is battery supply. The 24 GWh they are producing now covers about 350,000 Model 3 in Fremont per year. But in 2020-2021 we have coming up:

- GF3 at probably an average of 3000 to 5000 cars per week in 2020, which means 200,000 cars (10 GWh, only smaller SR+) and probably 300,000 to 400,000 in 2021 (15-20 GWh).
- Model Y starting mass production in the fall of 2020 and eventually going to outproduce Model S, 3, X. That could mean several hundred thousand cars in 2021 (although it might cannibalize Model 3 a bit), so 15 GWh.
- Semi starting production at the end of 2020, with each semi consuming a lot of batteries. 5,000 semi's at 800 KWh in 2021 would need 4 GWh.
- Pickup truck starting mass production probably somewhere at the end of 2021. It will likely not have a small battery. Cyber punk will be first, a more regular truck will have to wait for more batteries.
- Roadster in 2021: 10,000 x 200 KWh = 2 GWh.
- Energy storage ramping up. Expected to triple this year to 3 GWh, we were told yesterday. And growth will not slow down in 2020/2021, so 5 GWh and 8-10 GWh in those years maybe.

All in all this could mean a need for a steady state production of 70-75 GWh per year at the end of 2021. They expect to hit 35 GWh early next year and need to more than double that in less than two years time! If I remember well Elon yesterday said they would start physical expansion of GF1, although no timeline was given. It is definitely necessary, as there is a limit to what output improvement of existing lines can achieve. Hopefully they also manage to get a lot of GWh-capacity online in China to cover the 15-20 GWh needed there in the medium term (and more if they plan on reaching 1 million cars in China).

JB and Drew have their work cut out.

Thanks for the insights. I agree that this is of critical importance and seems to be the largest hurdle. Per the shareholder's meeting, JB and Drew seemed to allude that they have some tricks up their sleeve to achieve the needed capacity. At least we know, per Elon, that they won't release a model without knowing that the battery supply will be there. I'm guessing the maxwell technology is a critical piece in getting to the 70-75 GWh, and locking down some mining source/operations does make sense imo. Security along the entire supply chain will be critical to sustain such insane output. Does each Gigafactory max out around 50 GWh (assuming physical space is fully built out)?

 

[CorneliusXX]

You know what actually pisses me off? That Tesla doesn’t sell merch at the damn showrooms/service centers. Why? Seriously wtf? Merch is an impulse purchase.

Agreed. Due to their brand they could easily have some very popular merch. In addition to the usual clothing, posters, etc they could have the following:

• little battery packs for charging your phone in the shape of a powerwall
• Keychains in the shape of the tesla key card
• Solar phone chargers
• Matresses, sleeping bags, window shades, etc designed for the car in camping mode

These sorts of items could be made in house if desired as they use the same materials already used in their products. Most of them are also highly visible and carried around frequently so more people will see them.

 

[dqd88]

if tesla stock continues to rise i really recommend watching this youtube channel

over the coming months
hes short 46% of his money.

This guy is an honest-to-god flat earther. I've used that term in jest at the shorts, but it's actually true.

(note, I don't think this guy is dumb. A bit crazy, yes. Sadly, sometimes the crazies win. Irks me that some crazy shorts are making money off Tesla. After all is said and done though they'll likely be in the red).

 

[SPadival]

Tasha Keeney hard at work on CNN

Elon should consider stealing her from ARK (sorry Cathie ) and make her head of PR. She knows her stuff and maintained her poise/cool despite a bunch of CNBC keyboard warrior bros talking over her.

 

[schonelucht]

Elon should consider stealing her from ARK (sorry Cathie ) and make her head of PR. She knows her stuff and maintained her poise/cool despite a bunch of CNBC keyboard warrior bros talking over her.

Tesla doesn't have a good track record with former bull analysts in their PR team. Andrea lasted all but 10 months?

 

[schonelucht]

I can think of three ways:
- Inventory buildup (to unwind the "wave")
- Parts inventory buildup (to address service problems)
- Massive expansion of service centers (this actually happened)

The wave didn't unwind this quarter, it wouldn't be surprising to me if there are less cars in transit this time around than last quarter. I am also skeptical service center expansion would be such a massive immediate cash drain but parts certainly could do it.

 

[Green46]

Call a Media Day, once ever couple of years, invite all the main media, car media, tech media. Make it a big thing where people will actually want to attend.
Show stats regarding fires, let them understand how incorrect this perception is.
Show company growth so they understand the company is not doomed (at least very un-likely).
Show achievements of Musk & Co so they can end the rhetoric of liar and fwad.

That would allow no more excuses, when new FUD comes out. And it will come out. Never forget that media is owned by entrenched forces, so ultimately they will continue to lie & deceit as they are told.

Nokia didn't have trilliions to spend, and centuries of relationships to fight Apple. Oil does.

 

[SO16]

Thanks for your help once again! I ended up replying with the following:

If a journalist thinks that something doesn't pass the “smell test”, what would be the next course of action? Should that journalist ask more questions to clarify the situation and present to their readers a more complete and accurate story? Or should journalists run with a sentence that would make great clickbait?

When taken in full context, Elon may not believe it is worth clarifying. When I listened to his presentation (and probably most shareholders who know anything about Tesla), probably thought nothing of what he said there because we know the situation. We knew that AP 2 cars and above will hopefully be capable of FSD which can in turn be used as a Robotaxi. After all, this was a presentation meant for investors who probably know a bit about the company.

I am for the media and journalism. In fact, the public needs good journalists now more than ever. But when questionable tactics are taken or a rush to print without due diligence is done, people lose faith in the reporting. Journalistic integrity needs to be there. Unbiased and fact based is all an article should be about. If the media wonders why they are being attacked, they really don’t need to look very far to see why.

Here is my response to his. Gotta say I was somewhat surprised.



Thank you. Greatly appreciated.

On Jun 12, 2019, at 9:24 PM, Mitchell, Russ <[email protected]> wrote:

Ok. You’re the only person who has complained about this, and I get my share of hate mail. But thanks for your thoughtful argument, I’ll seriously think about it.

R

 

[dqd88]

Is TroyTeslike legit? I know nothing about him. He/she doesn't seem to post on this thread often. He's got Q2 at 80k deliveries. That sounds low. Anyone else have an estimate they'd like to share? The range seems to be 80k-93k. But that's a big range.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Damn. I ate Chipotle with double steak, sushi, 2 chicken egg rolls, and a hamburger today. Sorry for the 4% drop guys. I’ll go vegan tomorrow and see if it helps TSLA.

Are you bulking or just a fatty?

 

[SPadival]

Tesla doesn't have a good track record with former bull analysts in their PR team. Andrea lasted all but 10 months?

I wasn’t talking about investor relations. Besides, you don’t know what were the personal circumstances for Andrea leaving.

 

[UncaNed]

OK, I went on Twitter this afternoon and saw that I had like 30 notifications! Well that never happens to me. Looking at it it was all about a reply I gave to some bloke who wanted to accelerate Tesla's demise.

My reply was just a simple question: "Why?" Tesla has about 30 thousand employees who will all lose their jobs with its demise and many more people who get in trouble because they rely on the pay cheques. Why do you want Tesla's demise?

Reading trough the many reactions people stated that they did not want Tesla's demise but that it should file for chapter 11 immediately and restructure. I mean what are these guys thinking. So Elon should file Chapeter 11 with the courts now and they really think the courts will approve? So they think Tesla cannot pay the bills now and Tesla has not a s..t load of money coming each day due to all deliveries? And if you see how many "likes" these posts get.....
Have these guys no sense of reality?

Then there was another one who said that Elon wasn't allowed to talk because of some SEC rule. I replied, since when aren't people allowed to talk? Yes, but he lies all the time.. My reply, yes he exaggerates and has his timing off but lies all the time is a bit of an exaggeration..

Then again another one. Tesla is already in demise but Wall Street doesn't know it yet. I mean, on which planet are these guys living. I just showed them all the sales from 2011 onwards and asked them what is demise in that stat. No reaction

Then there was another one who was complaining about Tesla as being a fraud employer... My reaction was then why does everyone want to work there and why does it get overall positive reviews? No answer

Oh and the biggest one was that Elon was a fraud. I asked in what way? Again he exaggerates and his timelines are off but in the end he always delivers. Yes, he also made mistakes but to call him a fraud?

What I have learned is that these TSLAQ people are really "foam mouthed" fanatics who really cannot keep it straight anymore. I think a lot of them need to seek help because some of them aren't really well at all.

Are they AI bots?

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Is it just me or this rotating thing is something?

 

[mongo]

Is it just me or this rotating thing is something?

View attachment 418744

Model 3 wheel without aero cap?

(DVD > VHS for playback)

 

[AlexS]

Is TroyTeslike legit? I know nothing about him. He/she doesn't seem to post on this thread often. He's got Q2 at 80k deliveries. That sounds low. Anyone else have an estimate they'd like to share? The range seems to be 80k-93k. But that's a big range.

He will update his numbers in the end of the month he said, he is usually very close with numbers. I was also expecting 75 - 80k before leaked e-mail.

Wish I knew amount of cars on each ship

Can someone get numbers from Mexico, all data I find doesn't list any Teslas, hard to belive that there are 0 Teslas sold in April and May in Mexico?

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Model 3 wheel without aero cap?

(DVD > VHS for playback)

The edges are pretty sharp, does not look like the wheel

 

[EVMeister]

Are you bulking or just a fatty?

Or maybe he's one of those annoying high-metabolism inner fatties.