Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

am not remotely impressed by them, but I think they're stumbling their way slowly to the right process to eventually develop self-driving. I think they might get it done in a decade or two.

Wow, complete capitulation by neroden here. Imminent FSD secured.

 

[TNEVol]

I had one of these converted S vehicles come out for a tire swap earlier this year. It was a pre-facelift P85 with a bunch of dings. Surely cheaper for Tesla to return it into a mobile service vehicle and get an ICE truck off the road than to fix it up and resell.

This makes me sad. My 2013 P85 has 120k miles and I still get more comments and thumbs up than our M3 by far. Every week almost for the P85 and maybe 10 times in over a year for the M3. I thought briefly about trading it in on a PM3 but Tesla wouldn't give me much and the M3 doesn't really excite me enough to give away a damn good looking great running car, maybe the pickup will. Sentimental but couldn't stand it being used as a service vehicle.

 

[shrspeedblade]

This makes me sad. My 2013 P85 has 120k miles and I still get more comments and thumbs up than our M3 by far. Every week almost for the P85 and maybe 10 times in over a year for the M3. I thought briefly about trading it in on a PM3 but Tesla wouldn't give me much and the M3 doesn't really excite me enough to give away a damn good looking great running car, maybe the pickup will. Sentimental but couldn't stand it being used as a service vehicle.

A black/tan P85 is a damn fine looking car, with the performance to match. While waiting for the Model 3 one almost incited me into a move of financial irresponsibility! (Beyond investing in $TSLA, I mean. )

 

[anthonyj]

Sigh. So much ignorance.

It's the animals being raised by humans for their later murder that's the driver in GHG emissions.

If you care about TSLA's mission, replace your ICE vehicles with EV's, get solar on your roof, and stop eating and wearing animals:

www.cowspiracy.com

Damn. I ate Chipotle with double steak, sushi, 2 chicken egg rolls, and a hamburger today. Sorry for the 4% drop guys. I’ll go vegan tomorrow and see if it helps TSLA.

 

[UncaNed]

It sounds like the focus on profits is switching to a focus on growth at the expense of profits. Not saying this is the wrong thing to do at this time but I am afraid it will be a headwind for the share price. I hope the Q2 report will demonstrate a clear path toward future profitability.

...reinforcing that its the right thing to do. The sooner Tesla grows bigger, the higher TSLA SP should grow.

 

[gene]

(Please no debate from audiophiles on lossiness, the point is historical - that CDs won by being more convenient).

Except CD's did not win. CD's are now obsolete yet LP's are an actively sought out source and LP turntables abound. www.generubinaudio.com

In addition your statement "CD's being equal to the master" is absolutely false. I am a professional in the audio industry as well as a performing violinist. A CD approaches a digital master barely but in comparison to an analog master tape, a CD is a joke. Compared to an analog master, any digital format fails in engagement, pace, and timing. I have the feeling it may have been too long since you have been around un-amplified acoustic music.

In studying the technique of famous violinists, I and other professionals, must use analog to discern the subtleties of the observed violinist's techniques. Digital will not resolve the emotion and as well the critical timing is shifted.

BTW : Carl, I seem to always agree with your posts about Tesla and TSLA, I just think in this case, you made a poor analogy.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Except CD's did not win. CD's are now obsolete yet LP's are an actively sought out source and LP turntables abound. www.generubinaudio.com

In addition your statement "CD's being equal to the master" is absolutely false. I am a professional in the audio industry as well as a performing violinist. A CD approaches a digital master barely but in comparison to an analog master tape, a CD is a joke. Compared to an analog master, any digital format fails in engagement, pace, and timing. I have the feeling it may have been too long since you have been around un-amplified acoustic music.

In studying the technique of famous violinists, I and other professionals, must use analog to discern the subtleties of the observed violinist's techniques. Digital will not resolve the emotion and as well the critical timing is shifted.

BTW : Carl, I seem to always agree with your posts about Tesla and TSLA, I just think in this case, you made a poor analogy.

I just knew this response was coming. Anyone want to make a comparison to BYND now, to trigger another group?

 

[VValleyEV]

These are very highly-trusted and revered publications, and deservedly so?? What did you drink? To me it's obvious these guys have an agenda going against Tesla. I think media is one of the most corrupted field today. They can't survive in the internet age if they are not corrupted.

I agree that absolutely these three have an agenda going against Tesla.

My point is that these are mainstream old school institutions with high quality reporting in most areas, and high trust ratings. They are not anti-science, and they do not push pseudo-science. It just seems nuts to me that they have an agenda to bash Tesla.

FYI this proved interesting:
These are the most — and the least — trusted news sources in the U.S.

 

[dqd88]

Agree, agree, agree


Tesla has a stronger board than most companies I've invested in. Most corporate boards are sinecures -- look at ExxonMobil or Berkshire Hathaway.


Mr. Galloway doesn't understand buisness. He's a professor of marketing.


That's because he doesn't understand any sort of business at all. All he understands is marketing.

"Sinecures" - Learned a new word, thanks

 

[Sparky]

...Oh and the biggest one was that Elon was a fraud. I asked in what way? Again he exaggerates and his timelines are off but in the end he always delivers. Yes, he also made mistakes but to call him a fraud?

What I have learned is that these TSLAQ people are really "foam mouthed" fanatics who really cannot keep it straight anymore. I think a lot of them need to seek help because some of them aren't really well at all.

When I saw the shareholders' presentation, It seemed like it was getting about 40% of Musk's attention. His mind seemed to be working other problems. I've started to adapt to the idea that he just "sees" differently and can't necessarily express things in linear, calendar terms. It can be frustrating. Perhaps that quirk stimulates some lizard part of TSLAQs' neurons. Dunno.

Yet, it's not mere daydreaming. Among E.M.'s talents are long-term un-distracted focus on cost efficiency borne from thousands of design decisions that result in things like the peerless Model 3 battery-drive train (as JLR, Audi & others now know). Under-promised and over-delivered. Same with rockets. Study the new Raptor motor. A myriad of design choices all pointing to cost efficiency for interplanetary travel.

This quote from a book by historian Wallace Stegner seems descriptive to me: “His clock was set on pioneer time. He met trains that had not yet arrived, he waited on platforms that hadn’t yet been built, beside tracks that might never be laid.”

 

[Artful Dodger]

Semi OT

Three motors is still clearly an interim step. As Rimac knew, there will eventually be one motor per wheel. It makes the suspension more complicated, and at the moment that means more expensive. I wonder when Tesla will develop a four-motor design with low unsprung weight which they consider cheap enough to mass produce -- I'm sure every engineer working on the drivetrain wants to do that.

Three motors are the optimal engineering solution for a roadgoing sportscar. The Roadster2 accelerates at about 1.5 g from a standstill. Weight transfer during acceleration puts 2/3rds of the available traction on the rear axle, 1/3rd on the front. Three identical motors handles this situation perfectly.

A four motor design creates extra weight and/or complexity. Which means 3 motors beats 4 in a streetable car.

The Rimac is barely an engineering exercise, it's even in the name: "Concept One". Meanwhile, Tesla has already demonstrated torque vectoring with the Model 3 P "track mode". Software and OTA updates wins this race.

 

[StealthP3D]

You can call it feature complete when you have a system that does that and knows what to do with the stuff it sees. But the fact that the feature is there doesn't mean the implementation is good enough for L4 driving. I don't see any other reasonable interpretation of why Elon would call it "feature complete".

Industry standard for "feature complete" is that you have all the right stuff in the right places, but it might crash on corner cases, not able to deal with more than trivial input size, not be able to function in all target environments etc.

Exactly. It's too bad we need to explain this but "feature complete" does not mean it can safely perform the included features without human oversight. A human driver still needs to be present to oversee the safe operation. In time it should improve to the point that human oversight is not required.

I will say this. As much as I think FSD will come sooner than the naysayers think, even after it's approved for FSD without human monitoring, I will still monitor it as long as I have a steering wheel and brake in front of me. Heck, I do that with competent human drivers so I don't know why I wouldn't do that even if the computer is more competent than a good human driver.

 

[Fact Checking]

In addition your statement "CD's being equal to the master" is absolutely false. I am a professional in the audio industry as well as a performing violinist. A CD approaches a digital master barely but in comparison to an analog master tape, a CD is a joke. Compared to an analog master, any digital format fails in engagement, pace, and timing. I have the feeling it may have been too long since you have been around un-amplified acoustic music.

Even in the digital space CD quality is not master quality:

• CD quality is 44.1 KHz at 16 bit depth,
• high quality digital sound sample libraries that top professionals collect and create during their careers are often 193 kHz at 24 bit depth - sometimes even 32 bits floating,
• higher bit depth means more track remastering and mixing degrees of freedom when creating new music: you can shift the volume and frequency of the tracks and do other transformations without losing resolution,
• but on top equipment there's even an audible difference between 16 bit and 24 bit sound sources: 24 bits has more dynamic depth: every bit gives about 6 dB depth, so 16 bits is 96 dB range, while high end equipment has a dynamic range of 110+ dB.

So perfectly mastered CDs can get pretty close, they are by no means equivalent to high end "master" files - and that can be said on a solidly scientific basis.

 

[Fact Checking]

You are myopic in this sense. In my wildest picture, musk industries will produce an Army of AI controlled robots that automatically mine and colonize the entire solar system. That is value of multiple of $100T, not valuation.

When writing that "Musk Industries will be earning trillions of profits" I quoted their profit in Ceres New Yen we beltalowda are using, of course - not in the worthless UN Dollars you Inners are still using, to pochuye ke?

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

"Sinecures" - Learned a new word, thanks

Haha should I feel proud that I knew this word as a non-native speaker?

 

[Carl Raymond]

Even in the digital space CD quality is not master quality:

• CD quality is 44.1 KHz at 16 bit depth,
• high quality digital sound sample libraries that top professionals collect and create during their careers are often 193 kHz at 24 bit depth - sometimes even 32 bits floating,
• higher bit depth means more track remastering and mixing degrees of freedom when creating new music: you can shift the volume and frequency of the tracks and do other transformations without losing resolution,
• but on top equipment there's even an audible difference between 16 bit and 24 bit sound sources: 24 bits has more dynamic depth: every bit gives about 6 dB depth, so 16 bits is 96 dB range, while high end equipment has a dynamic range of 110+ dB.

So perfectly mastered CDs can get pretty close, they are by no means equivalent to high end "master" files - and that can be said on a solidly scientific basis.

OT

There is a thing called a “glass master”, digitally equivalent to the product, unless there is a flaw in the product. Apologies if I used the wrong word but that is what I meant when using the word “master”.

Sorry I started it. Religion, politics, audio. Now I know.

 

[Fact Checking]

Only question is, till when will they keep making cars for US market and when will they switch over. Will they take off last week of June / do scheduled maintenance ?

The July 4th week and the surrounding weekend days are customarily a suitable shutdown week.

 

[Fact Checking]

OT

There is a thing called a “glass master”, digitally equivalent to the product, unless there is a flaw in the product. Apologies if I used the wrong word but that is what I meant when using the word “master”.

Sorry I started it. Religion, politics, audio. Now I know.

I see - that's not what is usually meant as "master recordings": master audio files owned by record companies, even if they are single track and don't contain the artist's tracks and other metadata anymore, are often at higher bit rates and almost always at higher bit depths and are thus digitally much richer than what goes on the CD or any other distribution format. For example 44.1 kHz 24 bit uncompressed WAV files are common.

(The true original master recordings that musicians/ artists rarely share even with record labels are even higher bit rate, or even analog as @gene mentioned: beyond the audiophile angle there's very high end studio equipment that has dynamic range beyond even the highest end digital DACs. When you create music these usually small and imperceptible sources of digital quantization errors can quickly accumulate. This is particularly important for classical music where pieces can often have a natural dynamic range of 80+ dB and you'd want to have good resolution in each regime.)

 

[dqd88]

OK, I went on Twitter this afternoon and saw that I had like 30 notifications! Well that never happens to me. Looking at it it was all about a reply I gave to some bloke who wanted to accelerate Tesla's demise.

My reply was just a simple question: "Why?" Tesla has about 30 thousand employees who will all lose their jobs with its demise and many more people who get in trouble because they rely on the pay cheques. Why do you want Tesla's demise?

Reading trough the many reactions people stated that they did not want Tesla's demise but that it should file for chapter 11 immediately and restructure. I mean what are these guys thinking. So Elon should file Chapeter 11 with the courts now and they really think the courts will approve? So they think Tesla cannot pay the bills now and Tesla has not a s..t load of money coming each day due to all deliveries? And if you see how many "likes" these posts get.....
Have these guys no sense of reality?

Then there was another one who said that Elon wasn't allowed to talk because of some SEC rule. I replied, since when aren't people allowed to talk? Yes, but he lies all the time.. My reply, yes he exaggerates and has his timing off but lies all the time is a bit of an exaggeration..

Then again another one. Tesla is already in demise but Wall Street doesn't know it yet. I mean, on which planet are these guys living. I just showed them all the sales from 2011 onwards and asked them what is demise in that stat. No reaction

Then there was another one who was complaining about Tesla as being a fraud employer... My reaction was then why does everyone want to work there and why does it get overall positive reviews? No answer

Oh and the biggest one was that Elon was a fraud. I asked in what way? Again he exaggerates and his timelines are off but in the end he always delivers. Yes, he also made mistakes but to call him a fraud?

What I have learned is that these TSLAQ people are really "foam mouthed" fanatics who really cannot keep it straight anymore. I think a lot of them need to seek help because some of them aren't really well at all.

Their odd behavior and arguing styles have for the longest time been a mystery to me; I find them somewhat interesting from a psychology standpoint. Many of them have ties to auto dealerships (owner, part-owner, employee, etc), and they are straight up angry. They hate Elon for not "playing by the rules." They want Tesla to die. They are not capable of having rational arguments. I used to try, but have decided it's just not worth it. They are not capable of being objective. That said, I do try to expose myself to the short theses. I try to be critical of my own analysis and assumptions.
The bears that are close to rational thinkers are usually shorting Tesla because of weaknesses in the traditional metrics of financial health (along with other qualitative stuff like Elon's habits). I don't think it is entirely irrational to have a skeptical position on Tesla. It is nearly impossible to create a viable car company, so it is quite rational to give any car company a very low chance of survival. What Elon has done is virtually impossible. He beat the odds and the bears just can't accept it.

 

[RobStark]

Top 10 Sellers Among all Cars

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