I also came away with an overall positive feeling, but one thing is nagging and that is battery supply. The 24 GWh they are producing now covers about 350,000 Model 3 in Fremont per year. But in 2020-2021 we have coming up:
- GF3 at probably an average of 3000 to 5000 cars per week in 2020, which means 200,000 cars (10 GWh, only smaller SR+) and probably 300,000 to 400,000 in 2021 (15-20 GWh).
- Model Y starting mass production in the fall of 2020 and eventually going to outproduce Model S, 3, X. That could mean several hundred thousand cars in 2021 (although it might cannibalize Model 3 a bit), so 15 GWh.
- Semi starting production at the end of 2020, with each semi consuming a lot of batteries. 5,000 semi's at 800 KWh in 2021 would need 4 GWh.
- Pickup truck starting mass production probably somewhere at the end of 2021. It will likely not have a small battery. Cyber punk will be first, a more regular truck will have to wait for more batteries.
- Roadster in 2021: 10,000 x 200 KWh = 2 GWh.
- Energy storage ramping up. Expected to triple this year to 3 GWh, we were told yesterday. And growth will not slow down in 2020/2021, so 5 GWh and 8-10 GWh in those years maybe.
All in all this could mean a need for a steady state production of 70-75 GWh per year at the end of 2021. They expect to hit 35 GWh early next year and need to more than double that in less than two years time! If I remember well Elon yesterday said they would start physical expansion of GF1, although no timeline was given. It is definitely necessary, as there is a limit to what output improvement of existing lines can achieve. Hopefully they also manage to get a lot of GWh-capacity online in China to cover the 15-20 GWh needed there in the medium term (and more if they plan on reaching 1 million cars in China).
JB and Drew have their work cut out.