Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[goinfraftw]

In a few years? He's obviously richer than me right now, haha. Over 100x the shares I have!

Being a 7-year investor and putting in half of my life savings at that time in the company has helped. What hasn't is caring more about mission than money in my personal wealth. I could have went FAANG after the initial run-up to ~$300 back then and divested out...then been much richer. I choose to be a 10-20 year investor in this company because I think it's the best bet to do good and be a value add in the world going forward. Unfortunately, hedge and institutional fund hell has overtaken what should be a growth story even now.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Being a 7-year investor and putting in half of my life savings at that time in the company has helped. What hasn't is caring more about mission than money in my personal wealth. I could have went FAANG after the initial run-up to ~$300 back then and divested out...then been much richer. I choose to be a 10-20 year investor in this company because I think it's the best bet to do good and be a value add in the world going forward. Unfortunately, hedge and institutional fund hell has overtaken what should be a growth story even now.

;-) Yes, time in investing helps, as well as a deeper pool to utilize.

Haha, it's more funny towards me since I've just started investing into TSLA (I've a TSP that I just let exist in the background), and I'm over here dealing in incriments of 3-5 stocks at a time. Small fish comparative, certainly!

 

[electrichapp]

misinformation affects perception of tesla and affects the stock price. we need more videos like this one

 

[carterm2]

Chamath Palihapitiya said that buying bonds in Tesla was like free options on the stock without the downside risk of holding the stock.

This is quite a statement, but I don't think the upside is as favorable as owning the stock...

Can someone clarify this for me as I have never purchased an individual company's bond before.

Thanks.

 

[DaveT]

At least TSLA isn't NIO.

 

[electrichapp]

At least TSLA isn't NIO.

LOL. NIO is the aspiring "tesla of china". and tesla is soon going to have an operational factory in china whereas nio doesn't have a factory. it will be byd and tesla that is going to be big in china

 

[sunny-value]

Chamath Palihapitiya said that buying bonds in Tesla was like free options on the stock without the downside risk of holding the stock.

This is quite a statement, but I don't think the upside is as favorable as owning the stock...

Can someone clarify this for me as I have never purchased an individual company's bond before.

Thanks.

The bonds are paying just above 9% at current prices. So if Tesla doesn't go bankrupt, you're earning 9% a year. If it goes through a reorganization and continues to operate after, it wipes out the old equity and you would become one of the new owners. However the true downside would be if it went into BK and pieces were auctioned off for cash...then you'd just get what is called "recovery" value. Whether you think this is a good bet or not greatly depends on your views of the future of its cash flow and profitability/BK risk. If you think the SP will recover and go into the 500s within 5-10 years, then its better to buy equity now (or a bit lower). If you think its headed for BK but not the worst kind and want to be a future equity owner, then what CP is saying might make sense. If you think its headed for the bad kind of BK (auction block) then nothing other than shorting the stock would do well.

 

[LN1_Casey]

At least TSLA isn't NIO.

My coworker, who was the one that lead to to actually personally invest, has been dogging through NIO's ups and downs. So this made me laugh.

Edit: And woot! Top of page 3000.

 

[jerry33]

Chamath Palihapitiya said that buying bonds in Tesla was like free options on the stock without the downside risk of holding the stock.

This is quite a statement, but I don't think the upside is as favorable as owning the stock...

Can someone clarify this for me as I have never purchased an individual company's bond before.

Thanks.

With convertible bonds you get interest on your money and later they can become shares at the price that was set when you purchased the bonds.

EDITED for correctness.

 

[Pras]

Chamath Palihapitiya said that buying bonds in Tesla was like free options on the stock without the downside risk of holding the stock.

This is quite a statement, but I don't think the upside is as favorable as owning the stock...

Can someone clarify this for me as I have never purchased an individual company's bond before.

Thanks.

He was talking about convertibles and not just bonds. Big difference.

 

[Nocturnal]

That might be true, if the game is closed, i.e. new participants can’t join. But because anyone can participate in stock
market, that is not the case. There’s always possibility for a new player to join and betray others.

Anyone, who thinks that TSLA is undervalued, can buy.

That assumes that analysts are actually good at picking stocks. The data suggests they are not.

Chamath Palihapitiya said that buying bonds in Tesla was like free options on the stock without the downside risk of holding the stock.

This is quite a statement, but I don't think the upside is as favorable as owning the stock...

Can someone clarify this for me as I have never purchased an individual company's bond before.

Thanks.

Bonds will get paid off if the company goes under etc. Bonds also can't appreciate like a stock can.

An important facet of the Prisoners' Dilemma is that the prisoners can't communicate with each other. You can bet that the investors get hints about what is going on with the other investors, even if they don't actually collude. So they can all hold tight until they all run for the exits together. And don't forget there are other players in the game besides the Tesla investors, who can be applying pressure for their own reasons, eg. media and big oil.

Just in general, I have zero confidence that they don't do exactly this.

 

[Maitri982]

The bonds are paying just above 9% at current prices. So if Tesla doesn't go bankrupt, you're earning 9% a year. If it goes through a reorganization and continues to operate after, it wipes out the old equity and you would become one of the new owners. However the true downside would be if it went into BK and pieces were auctioned off for cash...then you'd just get what is called "recovery" value. Whether you think this is a good bet or not greatly depends on your views of the future of its cash flow and profitability/BK risk. If you think the SP will recover and go into the 500s within 5-10 years, then its better to buy equity now (or a bit lower). If you think its headed for BK but not the worst kind and want to be a future equity owner, then what CP is saying might make sense. If you think its headed for the bad kind of BK (auction block) then nothing other than shorting the stock would do well.

Yield is about 4.7% today. I just bought some more. also, these are convertible bonds, which means they can be converted to stock at a predefined price around I think $300 per share. So this is how you participate in upside on the stock with minimal risk to the downside if Tesla goes belly up since these bonds are first in line to be paid off by an acquirer of Tesla.

 

[sunny-value]

Yield is about 4.7% today. I just bought some more. also, these are convertible bonds, which means they can be converted to stock at a predefined price around I think $300 per share. So this is how you participate in upside on the stock with minimal risk to the downside if Tesla goes belly up since these bonds are first in line to be paid off by an acquirer of Tesla.

I wasn't talking about the converts. I was talking about the 2025 bonds with 5.3 coupon cusip 88160RAE1. The converts have a lower yield because they come with embedded call options struck around 309. So if the SP rises above that they can pay you in stock at that price.

 

[dqd88]

yeah, agreed. there's a bit of unfortunate conflict here -- transition to electric is easiest for people with garages, which statistically trends older, and be more suburban / rural people. meanwhile, Tesla's maximum level of appeal is probably among younger people and city dwellers, both of whom are statistically very unlikely to park in a garage that they own.

providing a means of convenient charging for street parkers, be they urban or suburban, is a problem Tesla has not successfully tackled yet, and it's the single biggest hurdle i have in convincing people to buy one. I have several friends who are amazed by my car and who have gone to the trouble to spec and price one of their own, but who end up balking because they know they'll be parking on the street at an apartment complex or townhome community or whatever, and they wouldn't be able to charge over night.

i don't have a solution, but if Tesla were to solve that, they'd increase sales tremendously.

I don't understand why there aren't more superchargers at shopping centers, grocery stores, restaurants, startbucks's, ikea, etc. This seems to me a no-brainer as it would fit perfectly into people's daily routine.
Also, why doesn't tesla push more for/partner with RE development companies to integrate chargers into apartment communities and parking garages? (I know there are some here and there, but should be much more commonplace)

 

[mongo]

I don't understand why there aren't more superchargers at shopping centers, grocery stores, restaurants, startbucks's, ikea, etc. This seems to me a no-brainer as it would fit perfectly into people's daily routine.
Also, why doesn't tesla push more for/partner with RE development companies to integrate chargers into apartment communities and parking garages? (I know there are some here and there, but should be much more commonplace)

Superchargers are overkill for those locations (esp with new charge rates and 80% limit). Destination or urban chargers work better for in town top ups, and are lower cost.
(Based on the time we spend shopping, Starbucks would be a quick stop)

 

[FreqFlyer]

Its easy to talk about and analyze Tesla, its financials and prodcuts. But the people are what really makes Tesla and they work they do that has a bearing on the SP. Found this article enlightening.

Work With Us | TESLA DESIGN STUDIO

 

[sunny-value]

I don't understand why there aren't more superchargers at shopping centers, grocery stores, restaurants, startbucks's, ikea, etc. This seems to me a no-brainer as it would fit perfectly into people's daily routine.
Also, why doesn't tesla push more for/partner with RE development companies to integrate chargers into apartment communities and parking garages? (I know there are some here and there, but should be much more commonplace)

When I was in my 20s and living in an apartment I did not want to own a car (lived in NYC). I took the subway. Which was electric.

 

[jerry33]

I don't understand why there aren't more superchargers at shopping centers, grocery stores, restaurants, startbucks's, ikea, etc. This seems to me a no-brainer as it would fit perfectly into people's daily routine.
Also, why doesn't tesla push more for/partner with RE development companies to integrate chargers into apartment communities and parking garages? (I know there are some here and there, but should be much more commonplace)

1. Each requires negotiation with the property owner (often not the business), in a decent location, and permits by the city. This all takes time, and one person can only do so many in a year. I'm not saying there is only one person doing them, but the number of people assigned to this task is limited. Tesla has averaged about 100 locations a year over the past six years.
2. Many apartment communities have management or owner's associations that always resist anything new. Some states have passed laws to help this situation, but it's a very, very slow process because it doesn't hit their pocketbooks yet.
3. Parking garages generally look at EV space like they do handicapped space--reduced revenue because they're empty most of the time, so the busier the parking garage is, the less likely they are to put in charging stalls. (Until they are forced to by people parking elsewhere--that's a ways away still.)
4. If you've ever been to a Starbucks, the parking lot is almost always 100% filled. They have zero incentive to put in charging stalls. (and if they did there's a 95% chance it will be ICEd).

 

[kbM3]

In autonomy day Elon went full hype mode and talked about FSD this year and regulators approval for robotaxis 2020. Problem is, that no one believes him any more. Even bulls here don’t believe him.

That’s what the non-tech savvy investors heard.

What tech savvy people heard is that Tesla has a commanding lead in data which is critical for machine learning and a very convincing argument why LIDAR is a dead end.

 

[dqd88]

1. Each requires negotiation with the property owner (often not the business), in a decent location, and permits by the city. This all takes time, and one person can only do so many in a year. I'm not saying there is only one person doing them, but the number of people assigned to this task is limited. Tesla has averaged about 100 locations a year over the past six years.
2. Many apartment communities have management or owner's associations that always resist anything new. Some states have passed laws to help this situation, but it's a very, very slow process because it doesn't hit their pocketbooks yet.
3. Parking garages generally look at EV space like they do handicapped space--reduced revenue because they're empty most of the time, so the busier the parking garage is, the less likely they are to put in charging stalls. (Until they are forced to by people parking elsewhere--that's a ways away still.)
4. If you've ever been to a Starbucks, the parking lot is almost always 100% filled. They have zero incentive to put in charging stalls. (and if they did there's a 95% chance it will be ICEd).

Maybe Starbucks is a bad one. How about Target (big parking lot)? I see some ev chargers in wal-mart lots. You'd think Target would be more progressive than wal-mart.