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Tesla can't afford to lose the FSD race.

Yes, they can. Worst case they provide EVs to the winner, who will pay handsomely for lowest cost per mile vehicles with million mile drive trains.

Having said that, I do back Tesla to win. They have the data, the chip, the desire, the genius, the OTA advantage.
 
What frustrates me is that Waymo is just robotaxi company that will either sell FSD to someone else, or have to pay money for a fleet and yet... I wish $TSLA were valued like a robotaxi company :(

$TSLA market cap ~$44B
Waymo worth $175B

Waymo is worth $100 billion more than previous estimates, Morgan Stanley says (GOOGL) | Markets Insider

The 175B fantasy number comes from Morgan Stanley alone, and even they only count Waymo as worth 35b when valuing Google. Nobody has invested a penny at either valuation.

Electrek.Co on Twitter
"Waymo self-driving cars coming to Lyft’s network in Phoenix"
10 cars, almost certainly with safety drivers. If they're restricted to the same geofence as Waymo One it's a joke.

The only interesting thing in Waymo's blog post is they claim 1000+ riders. That's far more than I've heard, even assuming it includes those still under NDA in their beta program.
 
That would be the kindergarten variety.

Real developers follow a procedure by which documentation, release information and unit tests(*) are all updated along with the actual code.

(*) Some believe that the unit tests should be written by a separate group of coders who only rely on the documentation (since this helps to test also the documentation), in which case the non-test coder gets to write more detailed documentation (instead of just writing "see unit test code for examples").

Real developers write expressive code.

As for the rest, sensible developers deliver what their situation requires and their business can afford.

Are you in a feature race between apps in a company dangling by a financial thread (unit tests? documentation? what're you on?)?

Are you writing the control system for a nuclear missile (now let's get really formal)?

I once lead a team of 3 iOS devs whose app was expected to deliver nearly much as the Android version which had a team of 15 devs. Granted Objective-C is good and now swift is a-*effing*-mazing for productivity, but there weren't any luxuries. We did share a team to add automated UI tests for us, but precious few unit tests and our expressive code was the documentation. Still, we reached 4.5 stars in the years I was there (and it has continued to keep that rating or higher) in the App Store beating competing products from Apple, Amazon, Google, and some others. Then again, it wasn't a brake system for a car, either.

We can't always work in ideal circumstances.

BTW, if you're in traditional automotive, now would be a good time to consider a more aggressive or at least a somewhat less starry eyed stance. Just sayin.' ;)
 
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Yeah, this is madness. But the thing is Waymo is private equity, and I'm not sure I actually believe those valuations. There's something weird going on where private equity is MASSIVELY overvalued relative to public equity -- a good time to stay out of private equity...

One rule of thumb for investment is to get out when the public teacher's pension fund gets in.
 
Many many many patients are issued that would never stand up to litigation. The US patent office is quite happy to patent most anything and let the merits of it be fought out in court if it comes to that.
To be slightly fair to the PTO, they generally don't have the funding to hire the necessary people to begin to understand which patents are ridiculous and which aren't, so they just keep rubber stamping them rather than denying them as it's safer for them to do that and let the courts sort it out, than to deny it and get into trouble themselves - they're just doing what they can with what they've been given. Ideally together with legislative fixes to the patent system and courts, we'd also better fund the PTO so it had the subject matter experts it needed.
 
He just did allow dilution of his position. I worked out how much he needed to buy to avoid dilution in the current issuance -- a lot more than he bought.
So you think Elon wants Google or Apple to come in and gobble up all the shares not owned be Elon? Maybe enough to have seats on the board? Again, the idea that Tesla is for sale is silly. Elon is the poison pill. They won't do it without being asked in by Elon because Elon will leave and they wouldn't want that. He buys to maintain as much as possible to make hostile takeovers harder.
 
If you are RTing your car or a fleet of cars you may not care if the color is off a shade, just fix it and let’s get going, save me the 3+ days of downtime for paint. The body shop that was fixing The Fast Lane’s M3 said the body panels were inexpensive from Tesla.

If you don't care what the car looks like running a budget robotaxi firm why care about damaged panels or bumper covers as long as the car runs?

If you are using the car for personal transportation or anything other than a rock bottom lowest price robotaxi then you do care what the car looks like.

I don't see Tesla Network running a Beverly Hillbillies Clampett robotaxi service.
 
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Domesticating the house cat was way harder, we have been working at that for 10k years and still aren't quite there. ;)

Consider also though, Manhattan project and going to the Moon when computers could work only slightly faster than humans with pen and paper.


Basic rules:

1) don't run into things that you shouldn't. people, real cars, not OK...pine cone on road OK. object detection critical for this.
2) stay in driveable area
3) plan your path and adjust speed accordingly...e.g. slow down for curves. Know your lane (left turn lane, middle lane, etc)
4) slow down when conditions warrant (ice, snow, heavy rain)
5) know when to stop, yield, slow down. Stop signs, red lights, yellow lights, policeman with hand up

Lotta scenarios within just these 5 rules.
 
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Yeah, this is madness. But the thing is Waymo is private equity, and I'm not sure I actually believe those valuations. There's something weird going on where private equity is MASSIVELY overvalued relative to public equity -- a good time to stay out of private equity...
I doubt any of those private investors would pay for Waymo at that valuation. If Waymo ever goes public, I bet they'll happily sell at some fraction of that. Don't private companies also have much more lenient reporting/disclosure requirements?

Edit - neroden beat me to it.
 
OT

Edit: Move everything out of cities near sea level. No more NYC, San Francisco, Singapore, maybe London as financial centers.
Every government agency should be looking to reduce exposure to sea level rise. That being said, San Francisco is plenty hilly and will exist as a city (in somewhat truncated fashion) long after Manhattan disappears beneath the waves. Better yet, why not act decisively and prevent things from getting that bad? Enter Tesla, of course.

1) don't run into things that you shouldn't. people, real cars, not OK...pine cone on road OK. object detection critical for this.
Haha, if you think it's okay to run into pinecones, you clearly haven't seen a Coulter cone such as we have around here. They're so big and heavy that people call them "widow makers".
 
Elon has said in several quarterly calls that switching cell suppliers in vehicles requires safety retesting. It's much more difficut to do in vehicles than energy products, which is why they don't do it in the cars.
Thanks on clarifying the safety required on cell suppliers. I was referring to cells used in energy products. Why not source cells outside Panasonic and ramp up Powerwall production? There was an article that states Tesla still only supplies ~10% of inquiries. We are talking about four years after unveiling the Powerwall product.
 
I am like 5 drinks in and am waiting patiently for BladdersFull's deep analysis of Tesla's neural net versus mobileeye. Anyone else getting antsy waiting for this?

I got the patents and chip thing down now I think:

MobileEye: 8==========D

Tesla: 8===D

Does that sum it up?

I do wonder about his motivations here. He doesn't own a Tesla and he isn't an investor in TSLA, yet he spends a lot of time on this forum spreading the gospel: Mobileye=Good, Tesla=The Suck

He's going to continue to be disappointed with Mobileye's tech as it's deployed in the field. Since they rely on OEM's to develop solutions with their products and integrate them into their cars it's going to continue to be very slow going. Tesla's full stack control, access to data and agile approach will continue to lead in real deployed capabilities in the field.

Already we saw that in about 2 year's time Tesla was able to completely develop their own tech that is arguably better than Mobileye's. I'm talking about real, deployed tech in cars on the road, not some powerpoint slide.

We'll know Tesla's won when Mobileye starts the lawsuits over Tesla's infringement on their software patents.
 
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That's w hat I thought, but I've been wondering if the next US expiration is really going to be a big deal. I would expect it to follow the same model as all the other expirations, but it's so SOON after the last expiration that it might not.
Does anyone know why Tesla doesn't put public fight to get a level-playing field in EV credits? Punishing US made cars is a good argument. A supporting argument is that no other countries cap EV credits based on the production number from an individual manufacturer. A level playing field is way more important for Tesla than having any EV credits. It was a very bad move when the Nevada senator forced republicans to keep the current EV credits in the Republican tax change. Ro Khanna, a new silicon valley congressman, is planning to change EV credits linked to production in USA. But there are probably little supports, given that the news was not reported by any major news organization.
 
Thanks on clarifying the safety required on cell suppliers. I was referring to cells used in energy products. Why not source cells outside Panasonic and ramp up Powerwall production? There was an article that states Tesla still only supplies ~10% of inquiries. We are talking about four years after unveiling the Powerwall product.

To my knowledge they ARE trying to do that.