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Agree with unwinding the wave is necessary. But it's not credible at the P&D report to use unwinding the wave as the reason for missing the delivery number. Tesla/Zach specifically guided at Q3 earnings that the delivery number would be very close to the production. To be credible on unwinding...

What if Elon decides to buy other pieces to complement Twitter? His vision of X is way bigger than Twitter, and he may decide that buying the technology/market is a better option than building from scratch. What if Elon decides to do something else in large scale? Elon is now accustomed to the...

Elon might have already started x.com development. Even if he ends up buying Twitter, he could replace the existing Twitter code with a clean new code. That would also make it easier to change Twitter culture.

This is typical Tesla/Elon communication style. Does Tesla ever clearly communicate any of their production delays and executions? Does Tesla even explain why S&X revamp had delayed for months after missing the announced January delivery? Why does the production of power walls always way behind...

Biggest risk is that Elon, unlike Jobs 2.0 and Bezos, continues failing to put a strong management team in place.

It looks like the interior is still not up to the (luxury) standard of high end European cars. This is not an issue for tech-oriented buyers, but seems to be a turnoff for main stream buyers, especially the Chinese consumers.

It seems that exercising deep ITM calls is mostly for the psychological reason. Your exercise cost is fixed, and the value of exercised stock is the same regardless of when you exercise the option. Let's say you exercise a $300 call when the stock price is at $1,000. And for whatever reasons...

I hope not - better guide under 900k. It's best to keep the standard practice of managing wall street - guide conservatively, then beat estimates & raise guidance. Tesla has been doing much better after Zach becomes the CFO. Elon couldn't keep his lip sealed at Q3 Q&A, and gave away 2021...

Yahoo is still showing $8.26b/$0.54. Tesla is the only company that analysts keep changing their estimates till the earnings release. Tesla should do away with the P&D release. There is no need for that additional transparency given that Tesla now is executing consistently. And the P&D number...

Yes! The Steven Job's way to unveil a product - announcing a product only when it is ready. Maybe we should ask Elon what the objectives are to have an event so far ahead of the reality. There were times when Tesla showcased a product years ahead of the delivery for specific causes - the solar...

That will be after the market close on Friday before a long weekend. Would it be announced 10 trading days prior rather than two calendar weeks?

There are few posts discussing the seemly "low" China July Model 3 numbers. Is anyone concerned? Tesla China Model 3, July production: 12,571, delivery: 11,014 The sustained production rate is ~3,150/week. I remembered there were rumored reports a couple of months ago to reach 4,000...

Yes, following the productions and watching the demands! You've only counted ~1.5M in 2022 for the 2 M-ish total. It seems 1.7M is more realistic by adding ~200k Y from Texas. There was a rumor that Texas will start with a general assembly line for Y. It does make sense that Texas also produces...

Well said. These country health officials are not elected, they don't have as much pressure from the economic impacts. Besides, most bay area companies do fine with work at home. There are actually 6 criteria for loosening the restrictions. The three directly related to Corvid-19 spread and...

The argument of Elon being honest is baloney. Why didn't Elon tweet stock price overvalued when Tesla was raising capital two months ago? Why didn't he call out the government of China? He's simply out of control in dealing his own emotions, and rant recklessly. The board needs to step in! His...

That's the problem. The main value was supposed to succeed in the market of core truck buyers, take up market shares, and bring in large revenue and profits. The share price ought to go lower as now even the imagination of such a business is taken away. There is hope though, as a few small...

Those analysts are covered as they've already figured out the strategy - trashing Tesla with demands issue, while keeping a high delivery estimate.

Excellent post on Elon's weakness and a few critical thoughts - focusing on current quarter has halved demand, should have delivered M3s to all markets from the get-go, .... Strength: vision, hard-working, incredible drive to achieve goals, ability to dive in and fix problems Weakness...

Elon's hubris is likely to wreck this one. He's already twitted the truck will look "futuristic". X and Y are already too futuristic for many people - neither resembles the look of a typical SUV. It's better to move forward slower, like the original model S did, as people have strong existing...

The ev-sales blogspot Model 3 numbers are inconsistent. The China April data showed March sales 3,738 [6,738('19) - 3,000(Apr)], while March data showed March(=Q1) sales 5,300. March data: EV Sales: China March 2019 April data: EV Sales: China April 2019 It looks like Tesla needs...

The number 5,300 China Q1 deliveries is from a post on Apr 25 by RobStark, showing a link to China March and Q1 registrations. The numbers of ships to China are listed on Tesla Carrier tracking sheet.

> (EU+US ~= 55k) ... some random number for China to get perhaps 65-70k total Model 3s ... There were 8 ships to China in Q1, yet only 5,300 model 3s delivered. Does anyone know if Tesla has delivered all those model 3s that were shipped but not delivered in Q1? There are 4 more ships to China...

Underestimation is the result of the get-it-done-fast culture. It's expected to give all-out efforts and get key objectives achieved ASAP. It's still appreciated if the project is late or running into under-scoped problems as long as 100+% efforts are made. But it's not acceptable for a plan...

Tesla is likely aware of some delivery problems. They may not know the severity. But the past efforts probably just addressed specific problems and didn't solve the issues as whole. Besides, a not well-thought-out fix could introduce another problem. The delivery issues are likely complex and...

Does anyone know why Tesla doesn't put public fight to get a level-playing field in EV credits? Punishing US made cars is a good argument. A supporting argument is that no other countries cap EV credits based on the production number from an individual manufacturer. A level playing field is way...

Thanks on clarifying the safety required on cell suppliers. I was referring to cells used in energy products. Why not source cells outside Panasonic and ramp up Powerwall production? There was an article that states Tesla still only supplies ~10% of inquiries. We are talking about four years...

Any ideas on why Tesla doesn't source the Powerwall cells outside (Samsung, LG, ...)? Panasonic is supply constrained, so there are no reasons for them to block other suppliers. Tesla could raise the price if cells from other suppliers are more expensive. Tesla is still nowhere close to meeting...

Thanks! The China misery M3 number explains why Q1 delivery numbers were so far below the "logical & evidence-based" projections in the TMC board. China was ~10,000 below the educated guess (5,300 vs 15,000). It's beyond reasoning that Tesla could have messed up the deliveries so badly - in a...

The most likely headline: "Tesla Q1 earnings miss estimates". The question is how the stock price will react. On one hand, the stock price is already quite low and expectations are low. On the other hand, the earnings number will most likely missed the consensus by a lot, and shorts are ready to...

Well said. Yes, it would have been better with limited Musk. There are times to groom the executives and let executives take charge and shine through. It's also good for retaining and recruiting. He just cannot help himself from inserting himself into conversations - happened all the time in...

> * Why wasn't Model 3 production at least 10K higher than it was? ... Yes, it's concerning not knowing why. It's probably even more concerning if the US demand is the culprit. The deliveries are ~60k with likely numbers in each region: China: ~13k, EU: 22k (EU registrations counted by TMC...

How do you come up with 20.5k S/X when InsideEVs put only 8,875 for US? If we scale InsideEVs deliveries numbers, the S/X would come out as 15,400 [ 27,550(4q18, S/X deliveries) * 8,875(1q19-US-InsideEvs)/15,875(4q18-US) ]. The actual number will sure differ, but it's one way to give us some...

The numbers of these "evident-based" deliveries estimates in US/EU/CN do not match with the productions. If Tesla has a sub par March deliveries as estimated by InsideEVs, the total deliveries won't be very good. Let's say Tesla has sustained 6,500/week Model 3 production rate, the total...

Contrary to the prevailing view here on the board, both bear and bull analysts who spoke out in the last two weeks share the view that Tesla will miss the consensus Model 3 deliveries. It feels like a repeat of Q3, 2018.

Does the expected Q1 loss refer to GAAP or non-GAAP? It seems to be GAAP as various one-time charges are the main contributors for the expected loss. But most tech companies use non-GAAP figures when talking about profitability.

Tesla should still source cells from Samsung/LG for Powerwall. Given the current demands and competitions, Tesla can raise price compensating higher cell cost to maintain the same margin. Powerwall production is still so limited even though the product was unveiled almost four years ago.

The Model 3 production number of 80k+ in Q1 seems too rosy. Why did Tesla guide total production only 360k~400k if so many Model 3's can be produced in Q1 at the Fremont factory alone?

The primary purpose of saving Solar City is to preserve the infallible image of Elon - totally worth the cost of dilution. Unfortunately, Elon didn't hold his end of bargain and broke down last year. The GF2 story is likely more true than false. The poor ramp-up of solar panel production speaks...

Not sure how you get $1500. But the number implies that a SR M3 priced at $35k has the same 20% gross margin with a MR priced at $44k. ($44k * 20% - $1.5k)/$35k = 21%. 4Q ER could also be a risky time - if earnings drop too much (say M3 asp drops $5k) or the concerns of demands are not dispatched.

The GAAP EPS is $1.09 with the GAAP profits of $200m, using 183 millions shares of diluted shares listed in luvb2b's sheet. That is quite a drop of $1.75 reported in Q3.

The likely drop of s/x units could explain why Elon wrote tiny profit in 1q19. It's otherwise a puzzling statement, knowing that EU and China will boost sales of the premium M3. It takes more than three M3s to make up the loss of one s/x, given that s/x is twice the price of M3 and 1.5x of the...

Great, you all set to unveil the "conservative" Q4 cash flow number :) Hmm... wasn't aware that Troy's survey can show ASP, and it only dropped $23k - quite a surprise considering the MR effect and his sheet showed AWD% dropped 23% (46%@q4 vs 69%@q3).

Good work. But your M3 gross profit margin might be too optimistic. We know AWD% has fallen off a cliff since the end of Oct. The ASP will go down, probably over 10%, with the high percentage of MR/RWD sold. The better production process and more M3s produced will help the margin. The net effect...

Not easy. There are other unknowns to estimate M3 gross profit even if you have the delivery #. You still need AWD%, MR%, and more guesstimates on M3 ASP & gross margin.

Most likely no leak of quarterly production this time. Electrek hasn't reported any leaked production number for a while.

Elon is needy, but he should stop giving those interviews that reveal his inner thoughts and Tesla "secrets". This type of interviews only hurts Tesla and his own image. Cannot see anything good coming out of telling the world that Tesla was weeks from death due to the model 3 production ramp...

The new chairperson is a "business as usual" pick - no impact or disruption to Tesla. It's most likely neutral to the stock price. It's a disappointed choice. Tesla has a chance to bring in someone who is strong in business, operation, manufacturing, or technology, someone who can complement...

Off Tesla topic here. Mark is smart, shrewd, ambitious and hard-working. And that goes along with a low moral standard and the lack of creativity. Mark is paranoid of budding threats, and buys any emerging harder-to-copy threat outright. If a target company rejects, he would still copy features...

Good points on how to frame the messages on medium-range Model 3. It's odd to announce the unexpected MR with a few words on twitter and leave the media to define the purpose. I wish there is a way that the board could collectively, such as though a curated entry, pass good ideas and feedback to...

> ... Elon is being thrown into a very complicated and messy battle. ... Here is a different perspective. The 2018 Elon has brought the mess to himself, and he has sagged further and further away from core business with each distraction. Those actions pulled down Tesla along with its ardent...