Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

Here is the catalysator, just in the wrong direction:
"Tesla warns 'self-driving package' buyers that activation is 'very far away' due to regulations."
Especially "very far" here in the EU. Sooner in the US.

Another Fred Lambert Story on Electrek.
Tesla warns ‘self-driving package’ buyers that activation is ‘very far away’ due to regulations

Shush - don't tell neroden. He is going to be unbearable. This combined with:

I told you he is always right...

 

[KarenRei]

Not off topic Brexit.

Teresa May has lost 2 votes in Parliament in 24 hrs. This is the second:
Fresh Brexit setback for May in MPs' vote
The first was tying her hands on a no deal.

By my calculation, May has to provide an alternative plan by Friday 18th - sameday as options fireworks day...
Popcorn & Ambien mandatory.

Agreed, Brexit news isn't OT. So long as we don't get into discussing Brexit itself... again.... on end...

 

[EVMeister]

Here comes MMD actual.

 

[Krugerrand]

OT:



That's a myth. The fact is that:

• Ripping off the band-aid from a serious or partially healed wound can cause injuries, cause infection, prolong healing and cause extra scabbing.
• The pain is actually not mandatory. The best method to remove the band-aid is pain-free, i.e. when removing a band-aid from a child do it with some planning and intelligence applied: medical alcohol will dissolve the adhesive and will also help disinfect, but simply taking a warm bath will also weaken the adhesive and the band-aid will peel off.

Ripping off the band-aid is the lazy, painful, harmful solution.

Nor is the analogy even remotely accurate: the better analogy for Brexit would be for example to unilaterally take the Netflix or Spotify apps out of the iOS single market. It sure won't increase Netflix and Spotify sales and revenue, right?

(And that would be a more justified move, because the iOS tax is 30% of revenue - while the 'EU tax' is only 1% of revenue (GDP), a good deal of which is recycled back into the UK.)

Anyway, March 29 is only 2.5 months away, so we'll all see the negative effects of Brexit.

Because that’s not actually what he was suggesting in the first place.

 

[Zaxxon]

Tesla soon will be giving away billion $ worth of roadsters, its not good for the profit.

ONE BILLION DOLLARS? Uhh. They're likely to top out around 100 people getting full discounts. Those receiving less than full discounts will in large part be covered by the margin of the vehicle--eg Tesla may average a 50% discount for those that take advantage but do not have full 100% discounts coming, but may have 25% margin (those with much lower discounts are unlikely to cash them in given the high cost of the car). So let's say another 200 at 50% discount on average. The Roadster is a high-margin vehicle, but it's low-volume, so 25% margin seems extremely conservative.

That means cost to Tesla for 'free' Roadsters is $187.5k apiece after accounting for margin guesstimate. For the additional 200 at 50% discount, $250k - $125k customer payment - $62.5k margin = $62.5k cost to Tesla. But wait! Winners have been told they'll be taxed on the value of the car, meaning Tesla is likely writing these off in some manner. So our absolute high-end cost for the program is likely ($187.5k x 100) + ($62.5k x 200) = $31.25M, minus any tax benefits accruing to Tesla.

And they end up with hundreds of halo cars on the road to attract attention.

Far from a billion-dollar give-away, it's a relatively cheap marketing investment.

 

[jbcarioca]

...

• Yet selecting FSD is a valid way to future-proof your Tesla and increase resale value. We don't know how much the HW3 upgrade is going to cost.
• Buying FSD is also a valid way to help Tesla - with the future-proofing a small bonus. Anecdotally a number of TMC members indicated that they bought the FSD option for such reasons.

.

Indeed! Those are the reasons why I have bought the option twice thus far. I do not actually expect it to come anytime soon, but I am more than willing to subsidize the effort. As for resale value, I doubt it's really worth much but if it is, great!

 

[mongo]

ONE BILLION DOLLARS? Uhh. They're likely to top out around 100 people getting full discounts. Those receiving less than full discounts will in large part be covered by the margin of the vehicle--eg Tesla may average a 50% discount for those that take advantage but do not have full 100% discounts coming, but may have 25% margin (those with much lower discounts are unlikely to cash them in given the high cost of the car). So let's say another 200 at 50% discount on average. The Roadster is a high-margin vehicle, but it's low-volume, so 25% margin seems extremely conservative.

That means cost to Tesla for 'free' Roadsters is $187.5k apiece after accounting for margin guesstimate. For the additional 200 at 50% discount, $250k - $125k customer payment - $62.5k margin = $62.5k cost to Tesla. But wait! Winners have been told they'll be taxed on the value of the car, meaning Tesla is likely writing these off in some manner. So our absolute high-end cost for full write-offs is likely ($187.5k x 100) + ($62.5k x 200) = $31.25M, minus any tax benefits accruing to Tesla.

And they end up with hundreds of halo cars on the road to attract attention.

Far from a billion-dollar give-away, it's a relatively cheap marketing investment.

And those referrals have some profit attached due to sales, plus the winners will give their friends test rides (demo fleet).

 

[Nocturnal]

ONE BILLION DOLLARS? Uhh. They're likely to top out around 100 people getting full discounts. Those receiving less than full discounts will in large part be covered by the margin of the vehicle--eg Tesla may average a 50% discount for those that take advantage but do not have full 100% discounts coming, but may have 25% margin (those with much lower discounts are unlikely to cash them in given the high cost of the car). So let's say another 200 at 50% discount on average. The Roadster is a high-margin vehicle, but it's low-volume, so 25% margin seems extremely conservative.

That means cost to Tesla for 'free' Roadsters is $187.5k apiece after accounting for margin guesstimate. For the additional 200 at 50% discount, $250k - $125k customer payment - $62.5k margin = $62.5k cost to Tesla. But wait! Winners have been told they'll be taxed on the value of the car, meaning Tesla is likely writing these off in some manner. So our absolute high-end cost for the program is likely ($187.5k x 100) + ($62.5k x 200) = $31.25M, minus any tax benefits accruing to Tesla.

And they end up with hundreds of halo cars on the road to attract attention.

Far from a billion-dollar give-away, it's a relatively cheap marketing investment.

To be fair part of my objection is that I'm not getting one.

And it is certainly hard to quantify the value of Tesla fanboys on Youtube etc.

 

[Singer3000]

Not off topic Brexit.

Teresa May has lost 2 votes in Parliament in 24 hrs. This is the second:
Fresh Brexit setback for May in MPs' vote
The first was tying her hands on a no deal.

By my calculation, May has to provide an alternative plan by Friday 18th - sameday as options fireworks day...
Popcorn & Ambien mandatory.

No, it’s by Monday 21st. Fridays are a duvet/golf/pub day for MPs so that doesn’t count as one of the three “sitting days” stipulated in the vote.

To be specific, it also doesn’t say May needs to provide an “alternative plan”. Ah least for now, she remains free to continue banging her head against a wall and say that her Plan B is the same as her Plan A.

Relevance to Tesla: anyone sweating that next Fri (or even the following Mon) will see a Brexit inspired crash of a certain Nasdaq-listed EV producer can probably relax. No doubt those posters with strong views on Brexit might see things differently.

 

[loco]

Agreed, Brexit news isn't OT. So long as we don't get into discussing Brexit itself... again.... on end...

I'm genuinely interested. Not making fun or anything. How does Brexit impact Tesla the Company or TSLA stock price?
Tesla is not making cars in the UK.
Do they have important suppliers there?
Is the UK a major market for Tesla, like US, China or the EU?

The only way I see it impact the stock price is via worsening macro, which I would expect to be temporary and mostly affect British socks and companies with significant business in the UK.

So what is the importance of Brexit to Tesla?

 

[Hogfighter]

I'm genuinely interested. Not making fun or anything. How does Brexit impact Tesla the Company or TSLA stock price?
Tesla is not making cars in the UK.
Do they have important suppliers there?
Is the UK a major market for Tesla, like US, China or the EU?

The only way I see it impact the stock price is via worsening macro, which I would expect to be temporary and mostly affect British socks and companies with significant business in the UK.

So what is the importance of Brexit to Tesla?

Brexit has the possibility of bringing on a worldwide recession.

 

[KarenRei]

I'm genuinely interested. Not making fun or anything. How does Brexit impact Tesla the Company or TSLA stock price?
Tesla is not making cars in the UK.
Do they have important suppliers there?
Is the UK a major market for Tesla, like US, China or the EU?

The only way I see it impact the stock price is via worsening macro, which I would expect to be temporary and mostly affect British socks and companies with significant business in the UK.

So what is the importance of Brexit to Tesla?

It's a significant macro issue. Affects the whole EU economy (although its impacts are of course most pronounced in the UK).

 

[scaesare]

I am glad he got screw. Who in their right mind wants to rebuild salvage Tesla's. I really don't get why his channel is so successful. That guy is a brute he almost burn down his friends shop the other day; he is probably going to kill himself at some point with the way he handles batteries and high voltage components.

I see you have an April 1st join date... surely this is a satirical account just for entertainment purposes?

 

[KarenRei]

I see you have an April 1st join date... surely this is a satirical account just for entertainment purposes?

Probably not. That battery project he did was seriously reckless. And they didn't even know how you're supposed to put out a li-ion battery fire. I mean, come on... that should be the first thing you look up before you even start on the project. Just google "How do I not kill myself or burn down my workshop when working with large lithium-ion battery packs?"

At least (if I remember the video right) he didn't try to blame that fire on Tesla.

 

[Todd Burch]

Batman pattern confirmed.

 

[KarenRei]

Nice to be back to > +1%

 

[juanmedina]

I see you have an April 1st join date... surely this is a satirical account just for entertainment purposes?

No really. That guy is dangerous is teaching stupid kids how to incorrectly work on EV's handling batteries and HV systems carelessly.

I worked on all my cars and I am all for that. There is nothing really to work on our cars anyway other than suspension, brakes, wheels and tires which is the same as any other car.

That guy is worse than shorts the majority of his subscribers and not pro Tesla and you can easily tell by their comments. Take a look and see how many "Tesla is going bankrupt" you fine. What percentage of the population wants to diy a salvage Tesla anyway? I bet you it is insignificant.

I work for an EV manufacturing and just torquing something not to spec can be catastrophic. He thinks is all fun and games until someone gets hurt.

 

[cheshire cat]

No, it’s by Monday 21st. Fridays are a duvet/golf/pub day for MPs so that doesn’t count as one of the three “sitting days” stipulated in the vote.

To be specific, it also doesn’t say May needs to provide an “alternative plan”. Ah least for now, she remains free to continue banging her head against a wall and say that her Plan B is the same as her Plan A.

Relevance to Tesla: anyone sweating that next Fri (or even the following Mon) will see a Brexit inspired crash of a certain Nasdaq-listed EV producer can probably relax. No doubt those posters with strong views on Brexit might see things differently.

No indeed, Europe and the Euro are far more important to Tesla sales than U.K. If we ever get a 3 we can buy

 

[cheshire cat]

No really. That guy is dangerous is teaching stupid kids how to incorrectly work on EV's handling batteries and HV systems carelessly.

I worked on all my cars and I am all for that. There is nothing really to work on our cars anyway other than suspension, brakes, wheels and tires which is the same as any other car.

That guy is worse than shorts the majority of his subscribers and not pro Tesla and you can easily tell by their comments. Take a look and see how many "Tesla is going bankrupt" you fine. What percentage of the population wants to diy a salvage Tesla anyway? I bet you it is insignificant.

I work for an EV manufacturing and just torquing something not to spec can be catastrophic. He thinks is all fun and games until someone gets hurt.

"Calm down dear it' s only an infomercial"

 

[scaesare]

No really. That guy is dangerous is teaching stupid kids how to incorrectly work on EV's handling batteries and HV systems carelessly.

I worked on all my cars and I am all for that. There is nothing really to work on our cars anyway other than suspension, brakes, wheels and tires which is the same as any other car.

That guy is worse than shorts the majority of his subscribers and not pro Tesla and you can easily tell by their comments. Take a look and see how many "Tesla is going bankrupt" you fine. What percentage of the population wants to diy a salvage Tesla anyway? I bet you it is insignificant.

I work for an EV manufacturing and just torquing something not to spec can be catastrophic. He thinks is all fun and games until someone gets hurt.

Given this is how I spent last weekend, I think we'll have to agree to disagree: