Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Causalien]

OT:



That's a myth. The fact is that:

• Ripping off the band-aid from a serious or partially healed wound can cause injuries and prolong healing and cause extra scabbing.
• The pain is actually not mandatory. The best method to remove the band-aid is pain-free, i.e. when removing a band-aid from a child do it with some planning and intelligence applied: medical alcohol will dissolve the adhesive and will also help disinfect, but simply taking a warm bath will also weaken the adhesive and the band-aid will peel off.

Ripping the band-aid off is the lazy, painful, harmful solution.

Nor is the analogy even remotely accurate: the better analogy for Brexit would be for example to unilaterally take the Netflix or Spotify apps out of the iOS single market. It sure won't increase Netflix and Spotify sales and revenue, right?

(And that would be a more justified move, because the iOS tax is 30% of revenue - while the 'EU tax' is only 1% of revenue (GDP), a good deal of which is recycled back into the UK.)

Anyway, March 29 is only 2.5 months away, so we'll all see the negative effects of Brexit.

Good to know. Now I wonder if the rethinking needs to apply to my trading and investing decisions.

 

[KarenRei]

OT:



That's a myth. The fact is that:

• Ripping off the band-aid from a serious or partially healed wound can cause injuries and prolong healing and cause extra scabbing.
• The pain is actually not mandatory. The best method to remove the band-aid is pain-free, i.e. when removing a band-aid from a child do it with some planning and intelligence applied: medical alcohol will dissolve the adhesive and will also help disinfect, but simply taking a warm bath will also weaken the adhesive and the band-aid will peel off.

Ripping the band-aid off is the lazy, painful, harmful solution.

Nor is the analogy even remotely accurate: the better analogy for Brexit would be for example to unilaterally take the Netflix or Spotify apps out of the iOS single market. It sure won't increase Netflix and Spotify sales and revenue, right?

(And that would be a more justified move, because the iOS tax is 30% of revenue - while the 'EU tax' is only 1% of revenue (GDP), a good deal of which is recycled back into the UK.)

Anyway, March 29 is only 2.5 months away, so we'll all see the negative effects of Brexit.

I can't help but remember all of the "Grexit" proponents talking about how it was going to be fine, nothing was going to be interrupted, what's to worry about....

That didn't last long after it happened and reality struck.

Greece was certainly in a weaker position than the UK. But these sorts of situations are never pretty.

ED: Wait a minute, how did I get suckered into talking about Brexit in this thread? :Þ

 

[lklundin]

I can't help but remember all of the "Grexit" proponents talking about how it was going to be fine, nothing was going to be interrupted, what's to worry about....

That didn't last long after it happened and reality struck.

Greece was certainly in a weaker position than the UK. But these sorts of situations are never pretty.

ED: Wait a minute, how did I get suckered into talking about Brexit in this thread? :Þ

Since you ask, I am guessing:

You identify with Pippi Longstocking when she was envious of her friends Tommy and Annika that she didn't have any summer holidays (because she didn't actually attend school).

 

[shlokavica22]

Nice:

Chinese premier meets with Tesla's Musk as trade talks end
Posted on Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 By The Associated Press

BEIJING (AP) — 8:00 p.m.

...

Li told Musk he hoped Tesla can become an "in-depth participant in China's opening and a promoter of the stability of Chinese-U.S. relations."​

Looking at the video and the way it's reported by the Chinese, my take is this- GF3 is not just about TSLA.
It will be used by the Chinese as a showcase for their capabilities. After all, GF3 is the biggest foreign project from this kind in the area.
The probability of GF3 being build faster than stated today is quite big imho.

And there you have it! It gets even better than what I thought- TSLA will be showcase for a new era of US/China economic relationship.
Not only the trade talks will end well, but TSLA won't be allowed to fail in China.

 

[Fact Checking]

And there you have it! It gets even better than what I thought- TSLA will be showcase for a new era of US/China economical relationship.
Not only the trade talks will end well, but TSLA won't be allowed to fail in China.

Yeah, and also note that the AP report didn't fully quote what Premier Li said at the meeting, which was:

"We hope you [Tesla] can get a firm foothold and expand the market. We hope you [Tesla] can become an in-depth participant in China's opening and a promoter of the stability of Chinese-U.S. relations."​

Note the first sentence: China not only wants Tesla to be present in the Chinese market, they want Tesla to expand the EV market in China, and is publicly proclaiming this at the highest levels.

It doesn't get any more supportive!

 

[shlokavica22]

Yeah, and also note that the AP report didn't fully quote what Premier Li said at the meeting, which was:

"We hope you [Tesla] can get a firm foothold and expand the market. We hope you [Tesla] can become an in-depth participant in China's opening and a promoter of the stability of Chinese-U.S. relations."​

Note the first sentence: China not only wants Tesla to be present in the Chinese market, they want Tesla to expand the EV market in China, and is publicly proclaiming this at the highest levels.

It doesn't get any more supportive!

Even better- a video of that was posted by Elon:

TicToc by Bloomberg on Twitter

 

[Cattledog]

Nice:

Chinese premier meets with Tesla's Musk as trade talks end
Posted on Wednesday, January 9th, 2019 By The Associated Press

BEIJING (AP) — 8:00 p.m.

China's top economic official, Premier Li Keqiang, has met with the CEO of electric car brand Tesla Inc., Elon Musk.

Musk and other businessmen met with Li on Wednesday in Beijing at the Great Hall of the People.

Tesla broke ground this week in Shanghai on its first factory outside the United States. Musk says production of Tesla's Model 3 will start late this year.

Li told Musk he hoped Tesla can become an "in-depth participant in China's opening and a promoter of the stability of Chinese-U.S. relations."​

Wow. As if space colonization and reversing global warming weren't enough, throw in promoter of international peace. With hobbies of tunnel drilling and artificial intelligence. Young Elon Musk just might have a future after all...

 

[lklundin]

Yeah, and also note that the AP report didn't fully quote what Premier Li said at the meeting, which was:

"We hope you [Tesla] can get a firm foothold and expand the market. We hope you [Tesla] can become an in-depth participant in China's opening and a promoter of the stability of Chinese-U.S. relations."​

Note the first sentence: China not only wants Tesla to be present in the Chinese market, they want Tesla to expand the EV market in China, and is publicly proclaiming this at the highest levels.

It doesn't get any more supportive!

Yes, how many points will the SP gain on this?

10?

(Naturally, with the concurrent state-level negociations, it is hard to know).

 

[KarenRei]

Yes, how many points will the SP gain on this?

10?

(Naturally, with the concurrent state-level negociations, it is hard to know).

Premarket? -0,77 (-0,23%)

 

[Tslynk67]

I can't help but remember all of the "Grexit" proponents talking about how it was going to be fine, nothing was going to be interrupted, what's to worry about....

That didn't last long after it happened and reality struck.

Greece was certainly in a weaker position than the UK. But these sorts of situations are never pretty.

ED: Wait a minute, how did I get suckered into talking about Brexit in this thread? :Þ

 

[Fact Checking]

Yes, how many points will the SP gain on this?

It's all conditional on how concrete the actual China/U.S. agreement is at the moment. Is it going to happen this week? On a set day in a couple of weeks? In the uncertain future? Was there a setback?

Once there's a China/U.S. trade agreement in place then all other things equal Tesla SP to teh moon:

• ~$50m per quarter cost reduction,
• China car tariffs will be at the low 25% that worked for Tesla in the past (not the punitive 40% import tax),
• NASDAQ will catapult, AAPL in particular. TSLA will correlate up with them - there's a 30% gap to NASDAQ highs from a few months ago ...
  
• Tesla got a really, really sweet deal for Shanghai Gigafactory capex, on the back of China/U.S. trade tensions. That benefit won't go away and gives Tesla a massive foothold in the largest EV market on the planet. That small dance move Elon performed in Shanghai? Totally justified!

But to what extent a China trade agreement is in place is still unclear - there's nothing official AFAICS.

 

[Tslynk67]

Premarket? -0,77 (-0,23%)

Bugger-all volume in pre today...

 

[lklundin]

Wow. As if space colonization and reversing global warming weren't enough, throw in promoter of international peace. With hobbies of tunnel drilling and artificial intelligence. Young Elon Musk just might have a future after all...

Actually, since global warming and its rising sea levels can cause massive, global conflict (e.g. due to the migration of a significant portion of the population of the Indian subcontinent), Elon Musk may with his Secret Master Plan already be doing more than anyone else for international peace.

 

[lklundin]

Premarket? -0,77 (-0,23%)

Right, but that is up from today's earlier premarket, which was around 3$ down....

One thing I feel certain about, is that today will see more volatility than yesterday's afternoon.

 

[winfield100]

OT:



I'd expect:

• The cables themselves to be insulated and encapsulated in plastic (including the gap between them) - i.e. they'd be designed to be completely arc free even if a section of the tunnel is completely submerged in water. Since there's no UV damage underground the expected life time of the plastic encapsulation would be several decades.
  
• I'd also expect the tunnel to be segmented, with regular 'walls' separating the sections. Each segment is designed to be able to be fully submerged yet functional.

Arc gap (in air) should be fine. If this calculator is accurate:

High Voltage Arc Gap Calculator​

Then minimum arc distance for 1 MeV DC is about 15 cm - so the 4.2 meter Boring tunnel diameter should be more than enough - assuming proper plastic encapsulation of the cables.

Additional notes:

• Dedicated utility tunnels are so well protected that in principle it would also be possible to eventually lay superconducting lines, which would allow transfer at much lower voltages as well:
  • World's first superconducting power line paves the way for billions of dollars in savings, more nuclear power stations - ExtremeTech
• With such low tunneling costs it would also make sense to eventually build redundancy into the system: 3 parallel tunnels at a healthy distance from each other (~1 km), one of which tunnels can always be taken down for maintenance/upgrades.
• I'm sure better power distribution topologies are possible as well once low tunneling cost materializes. New industrial complexes could be approached with utility tunnels, from the nearest (underground) power distribution point.

Hiding all power lines underground is what is done in modern communities anyway.

Kinda OT
http://asrc.albany.edu/people/facul...wer outage/availability of PV resource-04.pdf
Power lines
August 14, 2003 grid collapsed in north east US and parts Canada
$8-$11 billions in losses
Could have been avoided by combo PV and _batteries_ about 500megawatt distributed (kinda like a VPP eh) (like Australia is doing)
Island of Kaua’i just put in another PV/battery in Koloa)
Future is heading at us faster and faster

 

[shlokavica22]

Credit to u/ektomtapeter for this beauty (posted originally here- I designed a print ad for Tesla in the style of a 70s Volkswagen advertisement)

That slogan is a killer!

 

[Fact Checking]

.

Actually, since global warming and its rising sea levels can cause massive, global conflict

Sadly global warming is probably already causing global conflicts - the Syrian conflict was significantly amplified by a drought cycle very likely linked to global warming:

(The bottom right red area of drought includes Syria.)

BTW., the climatology future of Syria might be rosier: there are indications that higher water temperatures in the Mediterranean are causing increased cyclonic activity, which could eventually transport more rain eastward (in the general direction of the jet stream).

The flip side will be more probable "Medicanes" for southern Europe:

 

[Fact Checking]

I can't help but remember all of the "Grexit" proponents talking about how it was going to be fine, nothing was going to be interrupted, what's to worry about....

Yeah.

Fortunately the UK still has its own currency and has sovereign debt denominated in its own currency, so Brexit is probably not going to be nearly as disruptive as even the possibility of Grexit was for Greece.

Still a lot of people are going to get hurt in the UK.

 

[mongo]

• It's misleading: Tesla sales staff had been anti-selling the FSD option for years and the take-rate had been very low all along.
• It's a necessity to downplay the FSD option: a customer buying FSD must be absolutely clear that the timing is uncertain. Tesla sales staff must anti-sell the FSD option, otherwise they'd be exposed to false advertising charges and generally would piss off customers unnecessarily. The honesty of the Tesla sales experience extends to the FSD option, and that's good.
  
• It's also immaterial what Tesla sales staff says: it's very unlikely that they have some special channel of communications to the Autopilot group, being updated about FSD progress, right? They'll be notified of FSD capabilities the moment Tesla goes official with their first set of FSD features. In fact Fred will probably receive leaked FSD plans way before Tesla sales staff is informed ...
  
• Yet selecting FSD is a valid way to future-proof your Tesla and increase resale value. We don't know how much the HW3 upgrade is going to cost.
• Buying FSD is also a valid way to help Tesla - with the future-proofing a small bonus. Anecdotally a number of TMC members indicated that they bought the FSD option for such reasons.

Fred's click-bait articles, which almost invariably do the baiting at the expense of Tesla, are starting to become a net negative.

Fred does post positive things also:
A robot company stages Tesla crash as a PR stunt, media buys it
But it is not his job to be pro-Tesla (anti-net-negative) anyway.

The article seems factual, what conclusions people draw from it are debatable.
Speaking of that article specifically, was it click bait? Did the story differ from the headline?
Are advisors 'Tesla' telling/ warning/ advising purchasers that FSD arrival is not immediate?

• Sales staff were not as involved in FSD previously since people configured on-line. Now that FSD requires a specific request, that are more in the loop. There is no direct leading or implication, nor mention that this is a change.
  
• So it is factual (but not a recent development). I agree down selling is the proper course, but that makes the article obvious (to us), not negative
  
• That speaks to whether the data advisors are provide is accurate, not what the data advisors are providing.
• FSD was a waste (and will be till it exists) for anyone who car was totaled, or their lease ended, or sold the vehicle. Unless they got 100% back on the option price at sale (which they wouldn't), the buyer paid with no return.
• Yes, buying FSD helps Tesla, and that is a reason for people to do it, but they should be aware that that will be the only result for a while. Also not a negation of the article.

"He doth damn with faint praise" could be applied, but all news/fact article should be praise free anyway. Lack of praise doesn't mean it is outright negative or false.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Kim Jong Un was visiting China at the same time as Elon. I’m guessing the real purpose of his visit was to test drive the newest Teslas. Maybe a solar roof for his palace too.