Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[willow_hiller]

I quote the article:
"... people with higher IQs are actually more susceptible to the gambler’s fallacy than people who score less well on standardised tests. It could be that the more intelligent people overthink the patterns and believe that they are smart enough to predict what comes next."

I'm seeing patterns everywhere!!!
Just sayin'

If the Gambler's Fallacy is the faulty assumption that events aren't statistically independent, one also needs to be wary of the opposite.

Assuming that negative events would be statistically independent was one of the causes of the 2008 financial collapse. Too many quants thinking: "Sure, this mortgage has a high probability of default, but if I bundle it together in a security with hundreds of other mortgages, that will significantly decrease the risk." What they failed to realize was that the chance of default for one mortgage was influenced by the same factors that would cause the others to default as well...

 

[Tim S]

Holy crap, look at that, we're in the unprecedented scenario of having the stock price drop to where to was, erm, last Monday...

View attachment 514647

Actually Tuesday. Last Monday was a holiday.

 

[Tslynk67]

Actually Tuesday. Last Monday was a holiday.

Damn you sir!

So even less than a week!!!

 

[Cherry Wine]

Lot of money waiting at $799.

Update: still tons of money (even more, actually) waiting between here and $799. ~$115M at the time of this post.

On a personal note, began the process of washing some losses from sold covered calls from Q3'19 earnings today. Currently sitting on losses of 900% with those bad boys. Yikes.

 

[winfield100]

Montana Skeptic has an insane article on Seeking Derpa about Tesla's 10k. The lack of actual analysis and insane confirmation bias was something to behold. This kind of thing just solidifies in my mind the idea that most fund managers aren't that bright or even well educated in valuation or general business.

OT
@Nocturnal
If you _read_ Montana’s bio , he __used__ to manage a $1 Billion portfolio and is __recently__ retired, after shorting Tesla for years and writing ?over? 100 negative articles about Tesla.
however, all is sweetness and light and most likely greatly diminished portfolio values.
<smiles> to the SA scrapers, alohaha

 

[Nocturnal]

OT
@Nocturnal
If you _read_ Montana’s bio , he __used__ to manage a $1 Billion portfolio and is __recently__ retired, after shorting Tesla for years and writing ?over? 100 negative articles about Tesla.
however, all is sweetness and light and most likely greatly diminished portfolio values.
<smiles> to the SA scrapers, alohaha

That's the best part.

Do all growth story companies attract this sort of conspiracy nuttery? Or is there something special about how Tesla combines tech, green energy, and Elon's personality that attracts the crazies? I know Amazon had it's share of dedicated shorts in the past, but I don't recall them being this crazy. I suppose social media's amplifying effect could be a factor. Prior to that people couldn't sit around and feed off each other.

 

[vikings123]

Update: still tons of money (even more, actually) waiting between here and $799. ~$115M at the time of this post.

Are you saying MMs might actually manipulate a drop to 799? If the SP holds where it is now maybe we can expect the 799 buyer(s) to bid higher?

 

[ZenMan]

Are you saying MMs might actually manipulate a drop to 799? If the SP holds where it is now maybe we can expect the 799 buyer(s) to bid higher?

No. Most likely MM pin will be $850 or $900 this week.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I quote the article:
"... people with higher IQs are actually more susceptible to the gambler’s fallacy than people who score less well on standardised tests. It could be that the more intelligent people overthink the patterns and believe that they are smart enough to predict what comes next."

I'm seeing patterns everywhere!!!
Just sayin'

Funny. But I've seen this a lot. Academics can believe the weirdest things and doggedly hold onto those positions. Contra your supposition, I think it has to do with the way "smart" people's brains work. They have very good short term working memory (they can keep many concepts and ideas in working memory at the same time, and thus can do very complex reasoning), as well as very good long term memory. All this to say that their brains clamp onto ideas very solidly.

I mean, I've been around engineers long enough (I'm in software) to have seen tons of technical "religious" arguments. Which programming language is better, which source code control system, which OS, etc., etc. Engineers will clamp onto positions and never let go.

Sorry for the OT!

 

[lafrisbee]

That's the best part.

Do all growth story companies attract this sort of conspiracy nuttery? Or is there something special about how Tesla combines tech, green energy, and Elon's personality that attracts the crazies? I know Amazon had it's share of dedicated shorts in the past, but I don't recall them being this crazy. I suppose social media's amplifying effect could be a factor. Prior to that people couldn't sit around and feed off each other.

yes, just in the average world most people are nuts. And then there is the Money world.
My belief is that big oil and the automotive industry actually pay "shorts" to attack TSLA. I stress that I didn't believe all the hype until I actually listened to a few of the "Short experts" about why they were telling the public at large to not buy TSLA. They were picking distortional events and presenting them as the norm. And many other things. It just was obvious that they were not trying to make any money, and couldn't from their position. So I had to agree... Two large industry sectors are playing hardball. They have contracted professionals to try and delay Telsa world domination.

 

[M3Rider]

Meanwhile...

Last time we were @850, 6/2022 1600c was $100

Today @840 6/2022 1800c is $100. 1600c is more.

 

[generalenthu]

Pretty light volume day today for a major move. While the stock moved pretty much 2x what nasdaq moved (which is expected), my model is showing a hedge need of ~5.5 million shares sold (for a 840 price as of this writing). using the 4x rule of thumb I have been using, we are a decent bit shy of of the 22 million shares volume (trending towards a 16 mill day?)

In other words, market makers are likely net long TSLA now and would be looking to flatten out later in the day or tomorrow at the most. Expect weakness for a bit longer, especially if the broader market doesn't bounce back lifting all boats tonight / tomorrow. I put in a small hedge by selling 900/920 verticals for this weeks expiry.

 

[Nocturnal]

This has been a really tough day for me guys. I went from being up about 4x on my Tesla investments down to only being up 3.9x. It's going to be a lean Christmas this year.

 

[Driver Dave]

Seeing a lot of headlines like:

"Tesla's stock falls amid fears of global spread of COVID-19"

Without the added:

"Like All Other Stocks Today"

 

[Artful Dodger]

Fun Fact:

3-yr old Model Xs (2017 with 30-60K km) going for about $100-120K CAD here (that's ~$75-90K USD). If you can find one.

Buying the dip may be a 'thing' with TSLA; Not so much with Tesla products...

Cheers!

 

[humbaba]

I've seen some comments about this being a "light" trading day. I suppose so, currently Market Watch is reporting a mere 81% of the 65 day average. But at 13.2MM shares traded that is more than 100% of the average volume from not terribly long ago. So, yes, given the general increase in volume recently it is a light trading day, but I haven't adjusted yet and to me a light trading day means around 5MM shares traded and 2MM shares for a particularly light day.

The trading just seems to have followed the broader market with some increased downside and minimized upside. Just kinda boring after seeing breakouts and shrugging off of macros.

 

[EVMeister]

Guys, I'm weak. I sold my first ever Tesla shares today, at $840!

Only a small portion of my holdings for a few DIY projects at home. And leftovers will go towards a deposit on a LR Model 3 later in the year. Ultimately makes very little difference to my long term strategy, which is very much buy and hold.

 

[wipster]

Montana Skeptic has an insane article on Seeking Derpa about Tesla's 10k. The lack of actual analysis and insane confirmation bias was something to behold. This kind of thing just solidifies in my mind the idea that most fund managers aren't that bright or even well educated in valuation or general business.

Fossi is the definition of insane, not bright, and not well educated (even though Larry may have attended college, he certainly didn't pay much attention to the Prof). Maybe he needs the money from the clicks because he literally lost his shorts because of his shorts.

 

[EV forever]

I have a friend whom I trust that has a Model Y reservation, as do I. He got a phone call this morning inviting him to attend a Model Y event in Vegas this Saturday. He can't go. I can find no confirmation that anything is happening this weekend, but his is the last day of Feb with deliveries expected in March. Interesting........

He has an invitation and he can’t go? I am only 5 hours away from Vegas, can I go in his place.

 

[wipster]

Guys, I'm weak. I sold my first ever Tesla shares today, at $840!

Only a small portion of my holdings for a few DIY projects at home. And leftovers will go towards a deposit on a LR Model 3 later in the year. Ultimately makes very little difference to my long term strategy, which is very much buy and hold.

EV, ya gotta do what ya gotta do, don't sweat it. It should be at new ATH's soon so you can put your deposit down and in the interim your model 3 to be will probably have an even longer range!