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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Tesla always produces in batches. That's the most efficient way. So cars for overseas are produced first and cars for North America are produced last (each quarter). Note that this even applies to options. Cars configured each specific way (tires, interior, paint, motors, etc.) are all produced in a batch. (This is based on reading the delivery topics--particularly when a new model is produced and all the complaints about how I ordered before he did but he got his car first).
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lafrisbee
Active Member
If the numbers are even half as good as the source claims then $4200 will be low. By just halving the cost of the batteries Tesla would go to five digits in 3 years...or less. The only thing that would make it take that long is how soon could investors actually believe it.Note that this was written by Eva Fox of Tesmanian, and Tesmanian is run by Vincent Yu who is founding member of the Third Row Tesla podcast who recently interviewed Elon.
With that in mind, I think we should give this Tesmanian leak from "sources familiar with the matter" some credence:
"From a source familiar with this issue, it became known that the new Tesla battery will have at least 30% more capacity and will be several times cheaper to manufacture. The production process will be extremely efficient and will significantly save on capital costs for equipment. In this scenario, a 130kWh pack seems possible. It also became known that the new cell will have a diameter of approximately 1.57 inches. The new battery will have a different form factor, so most likely it will be used for Semi and/or Cybertruck."While a 30% increase in energy density is fantastic in itself and a game changer, "several times cheaper to manufacture" is the really big disclosure IMO, which would be incredible news - if true then Tesla will dominate not just personal vehicles, but also:
...
"That is, in such battery cells there is more power, more energy storage, it has a higher charging speed and faster manufacturing speed, as well as much cheaper production."
"Maxwell has been working on this technology for more than 6 years, trying to improve it, perhaps this is what Musk talking about 'It's gonna blow your mind.'"
TSLA = $4,200 secured?
- Heavy duty trucks (Tesla Semi)
- Energy storage
- Mass transportation (buses need big batteries)
- Maybe even shipping: <$30/kWh battery costs makes EV freight ocean shipping a no-brainer: big ships would require 200-500 MWh packs - but EV shipping could also shorten transportation time, which would monopolize the medium time-critical cargo business. China->EU shipping time from 4 weeks to 2 weeks, US-EU shipping cut from 20 days to 10 days perhaps? If I was a country with cheap electricity and a healthy maritime transportation industry (Norway...) I'd be watching this space very closely.
It's got to be some surreal, synchronistic twist of fate that, two days after the most blatant, manipulative use of the Madoff Exemption that I've ever seen, the eponymous author of the market maker exemption is asking for early release from his (what was it) 150 year sentence. As it is said, "you can't make this stuff up". It is probably unlikely that his plea is granted and it would be impossible for him to fully atone for his crimes, but he could write an unbelievable ending to his saga and to the two decades of financial crimes by brokers and hedge funds abetted by his market maker exemption AND the removal of the uptick rule in 2007, an action that I'm quite sure he had a hand in.
Bernie Madoff, IMO, is the single person who has the ability (information) to put an end to the illegal shenanigans that now characterize our markets. I recall an interview with Madoff, a few years into his sentence where he described the origin of his exemption. I think it was some sort of meeting with the SEC board and brokers. (At the time, it is my understanding that Madoff was being considered as the next chairman of the SEC). Madoff proposed the exemption, ostensibly, in order to give market makers a tool to maintain fair, orderly and liquid markets. His comment to the board at the time was something like: "let's give it a try. If it doesn't work, we can always go back to what we have now". During this interview, he admitted that his biggest regret was that after using this exemption himself (shorting without borrowing), he realized that he could just stay short, never delivering shares, i.e., permanent FTDs. That's what he did. Regarding the removal of the uptick rule, there is no particular source that I am aware of that describes Madoff being involved in the process. However, given his stature in the industry and his cozy relationship with the SEC, I am sure he could/would have interesting things to say about how the uptick removal was shoe-horned into the regs.
Interesting times. Onward.
Do you mean Electric Shipping Ships? Aka Boats?Energy storage
TSLA = $4,200 secured?
- Mass transportation (buses need big batteries)
- Maybe even shipping: <$30/kWh battery costs makes EV freight ocean shipping a no-brainer: big ships would require 200-500 MWh packs - but EV shipping could also shorten transportation time, which would monopolize the medium time-critical cargo business. China->EU shipping time from 4 weeks to 2 weeks, US-EU shipping cut from 20 days to 10 days perhaps? If I was a country with cheap electricity and a healthy maritime transportation industry (Norway...) I'd be watching this space very closely.
lafrisbee
Active Member
I taught health and guided adults. Simplistically but true....
"People are born beautiful, That is why the young are so often attractive. However the more bad things you do the less attractive you remain."
Short distance ferries are ripe but not long distance bunker fuel container shops. They use ultra cheap fuel in insane quantities. The cost of a battery to fuel the trip would be so high it would not pay back. But with these new price decreases, diesel trains could be doomed, and 200 mile or less ships would be a good target. With trains you do get some benefit from brake regen as well.
I didn't think Mick Jagger did all that many bad things.
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Yah. makes sense. My concern is that the inventory draw down depleted any carry over into the first quarter and we could see yet another crazy rush to get cars in customers hands the second half of the quarter. Its hard to get info but I get the impression that very few cars have been delivered so far this quarter due to logistics etc. I suspect a big rush is coming...again.
Because of the importance placed on the silly quarterly financials, there will always be a rush at the end of the quarter. When GF3 and GF4 are both producing, the rush will be less, but it will still be there. Financials always look better when every product made is sold in that quarter.
Rashomon
Member
There was no mention of the cell length in the article, only the diameter. Perhaps the cells are longer if they're intended for mainly the Semi and CyberTruck. Tesla's recent patent shows modules with cells perpendicular to planar surfaces, so it's difficult to see how the cells could be longer than, say, 80mm and still fit in M3, MS, and MX. At even 70mm length, this is a huge increase in energy per cell, essentially a factor of almost 5, to perhaps 85Wh per cell instead of the 18Wh of current 2170s, so packs would have almost 80 percent fewer (but larger) cells for a given energy. Tesla and Musk have previously criticized large-cell packs because the increased energy in a single shorted cell made fire containment harder, so they must be comfortable they haven't gone too large with these cells.
Battery Day has already blown my mind if any of this is true. The immediate promise is large decreases in cost of both cells and battery packs (higher auto margins or much more volume at lower car retail prices) as well as the potential for ranges in top-line Tesla models to increase by 30 percent. But as previously mentioned, announced Semi and CyberTruck prices have had something like this built-in since the announcements.
larmor
Active Member
If there is really is a cheaper battery with improved storage, then home installation grid independent would be a reality-- solar would then make more sense, and could probably exit the grid, using only utility for backup, emergency...Note that this was written by Eva Fox of Tesmanian, and Tesmanian is run by Vincent Yu who is founding member of the Third Row Tesla podcast who recently interviewed Elon.
With that in mind, I think we should give this Tesmanian leak from "sources familiar with the matter" some credence:
"From a source familiar with this issue, it became known that the new Tesla battery will have at least 30% more capacity and will be several times cheaper to manufacture. The production process will be extremely efficient and will significantly save on capital costs for equipment. In this scenario, a 130kWh pack seems possible. It also became known that the new cell will have a diameter of approximately 1.57 inches. The new battery will have a different form factor, so most likely it will be used for Semi and/or Cybertruck."While a 30% increase in energy density is fantastic in itself and a game changer, "several times cheaper to manufacture" is the really big disclosure IMO, which would be incredible news - if true then Tesla will dominate not just personal vehicles, but also:
...
"That is, in such battery cells there is more power, more energy storage, it has a higher charging speed and faster manufacturing speed, as well as much cheaper production."
"Maxwell has been working on this technology for more than 6 years, trying to improve it, perhaps this is what Musk talking about 'It's gonna blow your mind.'"
TSLA = $4,200 secured?
- Heavy duty trucks (Tesla Semi)
- Energy storage
- Mass transportation (buses need big batteries)
- Maybe even shipping: <$30/kWh battery costs makes EV freight ocean shipping a no-brainer: big ships would require 200-500 MWh packs - but EV shipping could also shorten transportation time, which would monopolize the medium time-critical cargo business. China->EU shipping time from 4 weeks to 2 weeks, US-EU shipping cut from 20 days to 10 days perhaps? If I was a country with cheap electricity and a healthy maritime transportation industry (Norway...) I'd be watching this space very closely.
Only a question of time until batteries get cheap enough to be used on long distance container ships.
And totally necessary as well, these things are extremely bad a lot of reasons, many of which (not all) can get solved with electrification:
Wikipeda: Environmental impact of shipping
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MarketWatch - this morning: Trump promises 100,000 new ‘high-paying’ auto jobs — here’s why it’s not that simple
Andy O
Member
Besides the energy efficiency, electric propulsion would eliminate the constant deep thudding of the existing engines, a transformation greatly to be desired.
The points you raise contribute to my suspicion that there is nothing illegal going on here.
The scale of the alleged illegal manipulation is so vast that it could only be done by a major institution subject to constant scrutiny. And there’s no way to hide it: it couldn’t be more obvious and noteworthy.
So it can’t be that the SEC doesn’t notice, so then what, the SEC is in cohoots with this miscreant institution?
This is what usually happens to conspiracy theories: as they are subjected to questioning, they need to involve ever greater levels of conspiracy to hold together.
Soon, it’s an international cabal to defraud us longs out of our rightful winnings in the market.
Except that in the last 6 months this cabal has been remarkably inept, letting us have enough scraps to now be able to buy private islands.
Simple, if you include Tesla's new GF for CT and Semi
[ Expect an announcement prior to elections ]
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Bunker fuel is not so cheap anymore since the ban on high sulfur bunker fuel went into effect January this year:
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