There's too much technical risk in rolling out both a new manufacturing facility and a new generation battery technology at the same time. And no need. The current process 2170s are fit for purpose, profitable, and the fastest route to market. This is a slam dunk decision.
The road from prototype to first production does not go through the company's least expensive, highest volume model. As I wrote here
last (Mar 31) spring (Apr 1), look for the high tech bty cell rollout in a low volume car, like
Plaid (Apr 5) S/X and Roadster. Next I'd look for them in Semi, since that is a product without a current supply of battery cells and would be the ultimate high-use test case for the 'million mile bty' which could happen in just 3 years with a Semi in '2-a-day' cargo run service between Sparks and Fremont.
Agree with you here. I also believe Tesla will retain the 2170 form factor, because it will ease the enginneer work and lessen the cost to switch manufacturing to the new tech when they're ready. But the story for at least the next year or two will be continuing with the existing supply chain for 2170s in the bread'n'butter Models 3/Y, while preparing for the future.
Folks tend to overestimate what Tesla can do in the short term, and underestimate what they can do in the long term (more on that below). I think a battery development road map in April (Bty Day) will help people understand how Tesla plans to grow bty supply, which allows the vehicles we already know about to enter production.
I think the "Model 2" is going to become profitable at the $25K base price point because of (by then proven) 'Maxcells' with a ~30% reduction in cost per kwh capacity. I predict this will be the first unique product from GF4/Berlin phase 3 starting in ~2023/24. I look for a 34 kwh bty pack at the $70/kwh price point, in a Ford Focus / Eurohatch equvalent design.
I also think that Tesla has a roadmap to a ~50% reduction in bty costs. In addtion to the Maxwell roadmap, Elon recently commented that bty 'modules' are an artifact of poor organizational design, and in the future there will be no separate 'module' and 'pack' teams, only a single 'bty' team. Look for a significant cost reduction when simplified.
A $50/kwh cost at the pack level enables the "Model 1" designed-in-China "World Car" by 2024/25. This may be a 2-3 seater (Smart Car equivalent) with a 17 kwh pack, <1,000kg curb weight and anonymous-only robotaxi-enabled (no steering wheel or control pedals). It may also be not be largely sold to customers, but may become the basis for corporate robotaxi fleets in the large, congested cities of India, SE Asia, Africa, and S. America. Where people don't have $10K cash/credit for a car, they may have a cell phone and a dollar for a convenient ride, which is what they want, as opposed to 'car ownership'. Further, the effect on people's health by reducing smog and pollution will be a positive feedback for futher Tesla sales and fleet expansion. It's the virtuous cycle, and the World is eager for it to begin
Overall exciting times for Tesla investors. I also expect this transition to take 10 years, even if the roll-out begins close to the schedule I've outlined above. But by 2030, Tesla could well have annual capacity of 3M Models 3/Y, 6M Model 2, and 10M Model 1. Then 1 million of everything else (S/X, Roadter, Cybertruck, Semi) gets us to a cool 20M Tesla per year, and allows the EV transition to be functionally complete by 2040 with about one third of a billion Teslas on the road (Yes, 333M Teslas by 2040)
That's my crystal ball view for 2020-40. Have I missed anything?
Cheers!
