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Just got the information an hour ago from a well known automaker that does not get enough battery cells/packs for the production hence they had to go down in output

So at least one German auto maker can now reassure the public, their government and their investors that the German BEV competition not only has arrived, but has now also caught up with Tesla - since this German auto maker is now also production constrained. :)
 
That’s why analysts questions on the earnings call are so dry, they try their best to avoid asking the questions that would reveal Tesla’s strength, and it’s getting harder and harder.
What did AJ ask for the past few calls? “Weapon grade AI”, “Starlink on Teslas”, come on...

Yes, and the questions keep straining credibility more and more.

I suspect the analyst that asked about Starlink on Tesla's was trying to get Musk to say it didn't make sense to put Starlink on Tesla's but that Musk didn't want to give him the pleasure so he said something to the effect of "Well, I suppose it would work if someone wanted to do that but we don't have any immediate plans to do so".

In hindsight, I would have liked him to say "Due to my position at SpaceX, I think it would be best if I didn't comment on any plans we may or may not have to incorporate Starlink into Teslas". :p
 
That battery module patent is really clever, I take my hat off to the patent lawyers who wrote that, it describes everything, while being opaque about what the real innovations are.

What I think it is describing is a new way to manufacture cells, a module at a time.

1. The cell casing for a group of modules is created as a single unit. [ cheaper, faster, no waste material ]
2. Those cells are filled with electrolyte in parallel. [ faster ]
3. Instead of an end cap, the collector plate(s) are used to seal the cell. [ cheaper ]
4. The collector plate(s) are used connect to the anode and cathode, and contain the circuitry to connect them in parallel. [ cheaper, more robust ]
5. Modules (collector plates) have overlaps, which allows them to be connected together in series. [ cheaper ]
6. Protection systems which where on a per cell basis are now on a per module basis. [ fewer redundant systems, cheaper ]
7. Optimisation of battery, module and cell at the same time. [ cheaper, faster, better energy density ]
8. Better more consistent cooling. [ longer lasting, higher power ]
9. Dry electrode cells (Maxwell) eliminate drying ovens, which may make this scheme possible.
10. "This system-level design may be performed such that all the discrete, high precision, high-part-count operations occur in the same part of the manufacturing process, whereby reducing complexity and improving net cell to system yield."

This was filed in March so given time for drafting, this is the state of Tesla's thinking about 9 (Edit: now 12) months ago. I'm not sure how solid state electrolyte fits in with this.

I agree that the wording of this particular patent is cleverly constructed to cover a great many possible variations to the key design aspects, thus preventing future potential 3rd party variations from being able to claim any significant steps without infringing the art described.

Having written one or two patents, and read many more, I can see that this one has a well above average number of claims over the prior art, which, when combined with the clever all-encompassing multi-layered description, will give any competitor a hard time on improving it without infringement. Those competitors will have to come up with something radically different, or just accept Tesla’s design is best in the medium term, the most efficient to construct at scale, and that they ought to try and licence it, or just give up! A bit of a win win for Te$la.


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Just got the information an hour ago from a well known automaker that does not get enough battery cells/packs for the production hence they had to go down in output and the line is even partly standing while the supplier ask for a lot more money to restart delivery. Crisis meetings are ongoing here at Friday night, CEO is pissed as they did not tell him until a few days ago. Mid Management was shaking because they did not know how to convey the message.

Its what me and many other have predicted and it became true now. BTW, thats not public info and appreciate if that does not leave this forum.

Implications are extremely severe as I do not see that situation to change soon unless you have your own battery tech and production.

All I can hope for is that they start in large scale production in Europe and understand now how critical it is leaving their former wrong strategy. Its silly that they did not see it coming, incredibly dumb.

Tesla will in my opinion not benefit from that as their demand is going through the roof anyway and with lower output from other brands we have lower adoption rate from the broader consumer group.

While Tesla and all competitors are battery constrained, Tesla might as well start producing its proposed vehicle types ASAP. Demand would greatly outpace current supply, meaning prices at first could be set quite high, resulting in large profit margins. They could be labeled limited-edition "Signature" models. Then when battery production accelerates and factory capacity increases, prices could be lowered. Battery Day may lend more color to this. :cool:
 
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Tesla will always suffer the “problem” of having a much higher percentage of their fleet within warranty. I’m too lazy to look it up, but assume Tesla’s current fleet is 1M vehicles and assume 50% growth:

2020: 600k cars sold
2021: 900k
2022: 1.3M
2023: 2M

I.e. on Dec. 31st 2023, 4.8M vehicles will still be in warranty and only 1M out.

So whereas a non-growing auto company has an 80/20 ratio of cars out of warranty, Tesla will have a 20/80 ratio, and thus suffer this handicap, as long as the growth rate stays so strong.
An interesting (but obvious to mathematicians) fact about exponential growth: when applied to forums like this, the proportion of "newbies" is constant. When applied to fleets, the proportion of cars under warranty is constant (unless warranty terms change, of course).
 
My apologies if this has already been covered (I couldn't find it), but CNN is reporting that Tesla is temporarily shutting down GF3 to halt the spread of the corona virus. Has anyone else heard this? I think for the short term it may be a prudent move, but I'm wondering what, if any, effect it may have on the SP.

What think you all?

Old news already delivered in Tesla's Wednesday conference call and discounted by the market.

TheVerge - 4 days ago: Tesla says China has ordered its Shanghai factory shut down over coronavirus fears
 
My apologies if this has already been covered (I couldn't find it), but CNN is reporting that Tesla is temporarily shutting down GF3 to halt the spread of the corona virus. Has anyone else heard this? I think for the short term it may be a prudent move, but I'm wondering what, if any, effect it may have on the SP.

What think you all?

If the situation impacted Tesla’s US production supply chain it would impact the share price heavily.

Until, that happens, and that looks unlikely, Tesla is still in a breakout pattern with nearly every indicator screaming buy.

I wouldn’t be surprised to top 700-720 by Tuesday. Keep in mind Tesla closed above both 600 and 650 in the past 72 hours of trading. There will be unnatural upward pressure.
 
H
gtrpyr1, excellent post. I can't agree more with your last statement: "It amazes me how little the average person knows about EVs."

All here on TMC, whether from years past or just recently found, are at an amazing advantage over the general population on Tesla, we are the 0.001% that truly know were Tesla is headed. I say Tesla instead of EV because if it was not for Tesla, the EV future outcome would be very different and take significantly longer to scale. So I will add to gtrpyr1's statement "It amazes me how little the average person knows about EVs, and even how littler the average person knows about Tesla."

Step 1 - Learn about EVs
Step 2 - Learn which is the best EV
Step 3 - Direct your resources accordingly

I used to thinkr that I was part of the 1% early investors, but instead from what I've seen, more like 0.1%. A great misjudgement as the strategies used should be different.
 
I agree that the wording of this particular patent is cleverly constructed to cover a great many possible variations to the key design aspects, thus preventing future potential 3rd party variations from being able to claim any significant steps without infringing the art described.

Having written one or two patents, and read many more, I can see that this one has a well above average number of claims over the prior art, which, when combined with the clever all-encompassing multi-layered description, will give any competitor a hard time on improving it without infringement. Those competitors will have to come up with something radically different, or just accept Tesla’s design is best in the medium term, the most efficient to construct at scale, and that they ought to try and licence it, or just give up! A bit of a win win for Te$la.


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I think since Tesla has open sourced their patents to those that do not claim infringement against Tesla, this is more of a defensive approach than an attempt to stifle or gain licensing fees from others.
All Our Patent Are Belong To You

It's ours. You can use it, but we won't let you limit us.
 
If anything what was revealed in the interview is bad news: turns out the direction they were taking a year ago is not workable and they have to change course and develop some new stuff. Sure they're making progress and learning, but by the sounds of it they have to rework a whole bunch of stuff and they aren't done with that. Sure the project to speed up training is important but there's a bigger problem of simply not being done with solving the core problem.

Wrong a year back, realised it and take new approach. Other companies dream of being agile like that! Imagine if they didn't realise and kept on the wrong path, or even worse, realised it, but someone in the management layers didn't want to lose face, so kept them on the wrong path to cover his ass.

Etc.
 
Thank you for pointing out the positive feedback loop related to S&P inclusion.

If a fund acquires a 0.35% holding in TSLA at the T=0 price immediately following S&P inclusion and then the share price doubles so that the fund needs a 0.70% holding, they will already have it since the shares they acquired will have doubled in value, but if the price rises as they acquire the shares, which is quite likely in view of the huge number of shares needed, the fund will, at the time of re-weighting, have to buy more shares, but not double. The number will depend on how rapidly the price rose as they were acquiring their first set of shares. This loop likely reoccurs and makes a nice and interesting integration situation, as you said.
A trenchant correction - thank you. I ran the numbers and the rising tide effect does indeed lift the investment boat....BUT, as you also hinted, there is something of a Prisoners' Dilemma here. It behooves Fund Mgr. A to get his entire allotment of shares instantly, so that he derives 100% of the incoming tide and 0% of the higher cost to achieve it. Whoever is slow off the mark, to the extent he or she is slow, is arithmatically ('tho not exponentially) the underperformer.
As I see it, extracting all exogenous effects, this exercise is a SURE THING. That is not often the case in the investment world.

Advice.