Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Remus]

It comes down to the battery pack cost. The car companies have a bigger motivator than Tesla to bring down battery pack costs. Tesla is trying to save the world, the car companies are not, they are trying to make money. All the gadgets and technology we have around us that improves our lives is because someone was trying to make money, not save the world.

Intel has a bigger motivator than ARM producers to bring down power. When Intel's next generation low power chip hit market, ARM/qualcomm is dead.

 

[Fact Checking]

I think the whole market makers as manipulators idea is fairly exaggerated. Oh yes, Hedge funds and even some big individual investors would try to manipulate stocks.

For eg., the price action we are seeing now can simply be attributed to call option buyers cashing out. A market maker would hedge the sale of a call by buying equivalent number of shares (1 call contract = 100 long shares, 1 put contract = 100 short shares). So, when that call is closed, the equivalent action is to sell the shares bought earlier to hedge the call writing.

When someone buys a 100 put contracts the MM (or counterparty) could short 10,000 shares. They have to do it fairly immediately to hedge properly. I'll try to look up some option volumes to see how much of the stock volume is driven by the option volume.

ps : Ofcourse this is simplistic. I guess hedging that MMs do is much more sophisticated.

This is called "delta hedging", and that's plausible, except that this is not what is happening, and this can be proven via market statistics: both short term and long term expiries have been bid up, with open interest increasing on most series, and with more volume on calls than on puts.

For example here's how the open interest of tomorrow's options expiry has developed over the past couple of days, on the most popular strike price ($330):

Open interest only increased after earnings, with a very minor pullback yesterday. In most other options series we can see similar trends - and new calls purchased outnumber puts.

By your logic the TSLA share price should have increased monotonically after earnings, not decreased.

 

[pyromatter]

 

[Runarbt]

Ask not what the effort to decarbonize the world can do for you, but ask what can you do for the effort to decarbonize the world.

hold your breath ?

 

[Todd Burch]

Toyota is playing catch up in the EV arena.

Have you paid attention to Toyota lately? They're not playing catch up in the EV arena. They're not in the arena. They don't even have their sneakers on. They are all-in on fuel cell technology, which is ONLY better than battery tech in terms of refueling time. And by the time it's viable, batteries will likely be just as good in that area as well.

 

[Remus]

The biggest threat to Tesla is other car companies flooding the market with EVs, along with their bad habbit of discounting. Today, when one thinks of EV they think Tesla, because frankly, its the only real capable EV on the market.. How long will Tesla hold such strong brand power, that is the question. What happens when the consumer has a choice between a Toyota, Honda or Tesla capable EV?

The biggest threat to AWS is IBM/Oracle/Cisco flooding the market with their own cloud offerings, with their pervasive sales channels and sophisticated pricing strategy.

 

[woodisgood]

Can you guys help me out with this question that keeps plaguing me. So, there are 2 predominant thoughts on climate change. First, there is the belief that the science on man-made climate change is obvious and we need to take immediate action to fix the damage we've done. The 2nd train of thought is that the whole thing is a hoax and there have always been cycles of cooling and heating. And strangely, these 2 train of thoughts are split almost 50-50 among Americans. But, my question is not about climate change, or why people believe what they believe. We all know the facts and the arguments.

What I do want to know is this. Those who don't believe in climate change ride around in big SUVs and trucks (or whatever particular vehicle they chose to drive). They live by their creed. They only consider the vehicle when making a choice - the environment has no impact on their decision. However, on the other side, people are VERY passionate about the climate and protecting it. So much so that I see on here where poster's kids are buying trees with their lawn cutting proceeds.

So that leads me to the question. In America, we have over 200 million adults. Since the poverty rate is around 14%, that leaves about 172 million adult Americans who could possibly afford an EV. If we split that number into 2, that leaves us with 86 million adults not living in poverty that believe in climate change. Yet, EVs make up about ~2% of car sales in America. Tesla has literally sold around 500,000 cars in the U.S. in its entire existence.

So, please tell me, if people are SURE that climate change is real, and they believe that emissions are causing so many issues, WHY in the heck do they still chose to drive around in an ICEV? I mean, we're talking 87 MILLION PEOPLE!! Do you realize how much impact 87 million people could have? If they can't afford a $35k Tesla, surely they can afford a $15k used Leaf.

People simply can't make ANY sacrifice for what they believe in. I can almost guarantee you those people riding around in Camrys and Accords live in houses way bigger than they need and spend a ton of money going out to eat every month. Moving to a Model 3 would be so easy.

Or is it possible that not as many people truly believe in climate change as we think? One or the other is true, because otherwise EVs would be almost 50% of sales in the U.S.

People may believe in it, but perhaps not sure how far away the truly detrimental/devastating effects are (people are short-term focused) and how much individual behavior change can actually impact what's already in motion (pessimism about ability to change global trajectory). "What good will it do for the planet if I drive an EV but my 10 neighbors don't?"

Without organized and cohesive policies and goals, people don't want to sacrifice for no reason. With focused mandates such as certain cities/states adopting incentives (and ultimately taxes, e.g. carbon tax, ICE tax, etc.), you will see people who believe in climate change move quickly to follow the plan. There just hasn't been strong leadership on the issue, and most people need to be told what to do AND incentivized to do it.

 

[humbaba]

There's some more SHOCK** for Porsche posted today of the Blue Plaid prototype hot lapping at the Nürburgring :

TESLA MODEL S PLAID SPIED TESTING ON THE NURBURGRING | Carspotter Jeroen

Some hot takes from the video:

• JEBUS! That sucker is FAST!!
• the sound a full tilt is AMAZING! turbine-like whoosh of endless POWER!!
• 1st ever vid of a Plaid S at full speed** down the back straight Döttinger Höhe
• Anyone with Google Earth and a Video Editor (to obtain distance/time) want to estimate the Plaid S top speed demonstrated in this video?

As always, the Plaid Model S has achingly beautiful good looks, with punch to match. Like a Russian spy in a blue satin dress and spike heels, she'll have your heart and eat it too.

Cheers!

Well, Market Watch is trying to help Porsche out by repeating an autotrader story[1] that tries to give the impression that Tesla's Model S only advantage is range and price, and that naturally the Taycan will catch up with both over time. In the meantime, the Taycan's advantage is acceleration/performance.

They never actually say the Taycan outperforms the Model S. After all, that would be a lie.

Unfortunately for Porsche, no matter how much media outlets mislead video like @Artful Dodge posted will make it out and many people will see it. When Tesla finally goes for a record time no one will care that the Taycan does not have a record time on Nürburgring, but it won't matter because it will be absolutely smoked. There will be all sorts of claims that it isn't a production car, that Tesla cheated, etc., but no one will be able to contradict the fact that Tesla did it.

They (media, legacy makers) are losing control of the narrative. While Toyota is producing compliance EVs for the Chinese and European markets, Tesla will be producing affordable, compelling EVs (Model 3 & Y) and halo cars that smoke any ICE (Model S, Roadster 2). And, if you want a Faberge egg on wheels, you can get a Model X, which in addition to being a work of art will also have smoking stats.

At least some of the Porsche engineers have to be wishing they worked at Tesla.

1) The 2020 Porsche Taycan: Watch out, Tesla

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Here:
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

If he's paywalled, here's a basic summary:
Nafnlaus on Twitter

A section specifically on service (and charging) is due out momentarily.

Thank you.

 

[Nocturnal]

People may believe in it, but perhaps not sure how far away the truly detrimental/devastating effects are (people are short-term focused) and how much individual behavior change can actually impact what's already in motion (pessimism about ability to change global trajectory). "What good will it do for the planet if I drive an EV but my 10 neighbors don't?"

Without organized and cohesive policies and goals, people don't want to sacrifice for no reason. With focused mandates such as certain cities/states adopting incentives (and ultimately taxes, e.g. carbon tax, ICE tax, etc.), you will see people who believe in climate change move quickly to follow the plan. There just hasn't been strong leadership on the issue, and most people need to be told what to do AND incentivized to do it.

Classic prisoner's dilemma.

 

[Remus]

They are still developing FC with the help of the Japanese government. Regarding EV competition, ignore at your own peril.

nobody is ignoring the EV competition, we just been waited for 7 freaking years and counting.

 

[humbaba]

nobody is ignoring the EV competition, we just been waited for 7 freaking years and counting.

 

[Zaxxon]

Have you paid attention to Toyota lately? They're not playing catch up in the EV arena. They're not in the arena. They don't even have their sneakers on. They are all-in on fuel cell technology, which is ONLY better than battery tech in terms of refueling time. And by the time it's viable, batteries will likely be just as good in that area as well.

Um, fuel cells are not even close to better than battery tech in terms of refueling time. If I want to refuel my Mirai, I first need to tow it 1,100 miles from Denver to CA, fill it up, then tow it back.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

This story is typical. If someone is going to buy a Kia Sorento, they don't go scour the Kia forums to see how reliable the Sorento is or if people are having issues. However, because Tesla is a new car company and also happen to make electric cars, people are unsure. So they do a ton more research. What they don't understand is that these negative stories exist for every car manufacturer. People don't go on forums and tell how great their service was or how well their car has held up (ie, no or few repairs). This is true of not only cars, but any product. But, it affects Tesla much more because of the heightened worry in buying a car from an unknown car maker.

If you go over to the X, S, or 3 forums on TMC (which I do regularly), you would be mighty tempted to sell your shares and run. There are some nightmares over there. But again, you have to keep it in perspective. People with success stories think that's the norm and see no reason to post it.

I hear ya. I go to the Leaf board frequently just to see if there are any changes coming for the 2020 Eplus as I have one on order. Lots of negative stories there as well. But being a leaf owner for four years without a single glitch and a single visit to the shop for a complimentary tire rotate and software update I kinda take it all with a grain of salt. However. It wouldn’t hurt to have a thread here about positive service experiences as well. I think it would provide some balance for those of us who are non owners. And specifically ranger success stories for those of us who live no where near a service centre. (Interior BC Canada).

Cheers.

 

[Skipdd]

The biggest threat to AWS is IBM/Oracle/Cisco flooding the market with their own cloud offerings, with their pervasive sales channels and sophisticated pricing strategy.

Think this is probably OT, and maybe you are being fascetious, but no way that statement is correct. IBM and Oracle have pretty much ceded the IaaS market to AWS and Microsoft. IBM is gambling they can make a play with containerization, but they don’t have a great track record of managing acquisitions, nor in leveraging their innovations, e.g., Watson and AI. Oracle just acknowledged they are focusing on DBaaS and not trying to take share in IaaS. It’s AWS amd MS, with Google trying to still stay in the game.

 

[woodisgood]

Classic prisoner's dilemma.

Indeed. Trapped in a prison of our own design, an escape tunnel available, and demons in our head whispering "it's too dark down that tunnel."

 

[Remus]

Think this is probably OT, and maybe you are being fascetious, but no way that statement is correct. IBM and Oracle have pretty much ceded the IaaS market to AWS and Microsoft. IBM is gambling they can make a play with containerization, but they don’t have a great track record of managing acquisitions, nor in leveraging their innovations, e.g., Watson and AI. Oracle just acknowledged they are focusing on DBaaS and not trying to take share in IaaS. It’s AWS amd MS, with Google trying to still stay in the game.

did you block the poster I replied to?

 

[canoemore]

People may believe in it, but perhaps not sure how far away the truly detrimental/devastating effects are (people are short-term focused) and how much individual behavior change can actually impact what's already in motion (pessimism about ability to change global trajectory). "What good will it do for the planet if I drive an EV but my 10 neighbors don't?"

Without organized and cohesive policies and goals, people don't want to sacrifice for no reason. With focused mandates such as certain cities/states adopting incentives (and ultimately taxes, e.g. carbon tax, ICE tax, etc.), you will see people who believe in climate change move quickly to follow the plan. There just hasn't been strong leadership on the issue, and most people need to be told what to do AND incentivized to do it.

Agreed re: people's short-term thinking. I think a good test of this hypothesis will be whether sales of solar and powerwall in California spike in the aftermath of fires that bring the consequences of climate change roaring into people's short-term focus via personal experience.

 

[jerry33]

The only real question is - is this finally the time for EVs to gain that momentum? I know a LOT of people here think so, but there are 10 times more people on the other side who believe it's just a passing fad (or an environmentalists movement that's being forced on everyone).

That's only true if the respondents are politicians, car dealers, or oil industry folks. Having shown my car in many places over the years (including local car shows where the majority of people are showing their ICE vehicles) almost no one thinks EVs are a passing fad. Most think there isn't enough range and/or too expensive, but once they actually see the car, sit in it (they already know about the performance) it's like "Wow!". Same goes for the general public events (except they often don't know about the performance aspects).

 

[Artful Dodger]

I haven't owned a Model S since 2016. I will buy a tri-motor Model S as soon as they are available to order. Will trade a V12 Ferrari for it.

Lol, next time I'm thru Bozeman I'll expect a ride! But not in the Ferrari...

I normally watch with sound off, but your comment made me turn it on. Holy cow!

She S3XY AF, ain't she?

Cheers!