Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

9 cars per truck for U.S. team driver transport trucks:

"An American commercial car carrier typically fits between 5 and 9 cars, depending on the car size and trailer model (capacity is limited by an 80,000 lb weight cap that a road vehicle is subject to under U.S. law."​

Note that the total capacity of 9 cars includes 1 carried over the truck cab, which of course won't work with current Tesla Semi's, due to the aero fairing.

Tesla Cars Could Deliver Themselves In ~1 Year (If Regulators Approved), Tesla Buys Trucking Companies In The Meantime | CleanTechnica



Or, the production rate has increased and so has shipping. Don't think of it as a wave, think of it as a tsunami flood.

Likely 7K Model 3s per week right now, headed to 10K/wk by 2020Q1.

Cheers!

Everything that's been hinted or leaked so far has reinforced the narrative that Q3 will be higher production. Wouldn't be surprised if the average for model 3 for all of Q3 is closer to 7,500/week than 7,000/week

 

[Artful Dodger]

More likely because you're HW 2.5/3 which reads road-signs for the speed (or is that a thing in the USA), but mine didn't/doesn't, takes it from the map.

The hardware doesn't read the roadsigns, that's a software function. Same NN running on all versions of the hdw right now, including those with the new FSD computer. Elon said it will be 2019Q4 before some differences in performance emerge between it and older hdw processors. This is likely to include the NN reading roadsigns (speed, stopsigns) and traffic lights) which is one of the capabilities holding back release of the next generaltion of Tesla's software.

TL;dr Currently available Tesla's don't read traffic signs, regardless of hardware version.

 

[Mokuzai]

Insurance site is back up, I'm getting lower quotes now.

 

[Thekiwi]

9 cars per truck for U.S. team driver transport trucks:

"An American commercial car carrier typically fits between 5 and 9 cars, depending on the car size and trailer model (capacity is limited by an 80,000 lb weight cap that a road vehicle is subject to under U.S. law."​

Note that the total capacity of 9 cars includes 1 carried over the truck cab, which of course won't work with current Tesla Semi's, due to the aero fairing.

Tesla Cars Could Deliver Themselves In ~1 Year (If Regulators Approved), Tesla Buys Trucking Companies In The Meantime | CleanTechnica



Or, the production rate has increased and so has shipping. Don't think of it as a wave, think of it as a tsunami flood.

Likely 7K Model 3s per week right now, headed to 10K/wk by 2020Q1.

Cheers!

Anyone know the rough cost of trucking a car across the US, and also if part/most of that cost is recouped by a cheaper rate to ship from east coast to Europe compared to west coast departure?

Somewhere in The Boring Company offices there is a map of the 55 mile width Bering Strait separating North America from Russia...

Bering Strait crossing - Wikipedia

 

[M3Rider]

Insurance site is back up, I'm getting lower quotes now.

Reddit
Tesla Insurance is Back Up : teslamotors

 

[Zaxxon]

Am I the only one who cares that I-40 also has a hole that can be filled by a single SC near Fort Smith, Arkansas? Maybe not the "last big hole" but to many traveling east-west in the lower 48, filling this hole on I-40 is much more useful than the North Dakota route. No disrespect to ND intended.

I certainly wasn't trying to imply that it's the only or even most important hole. But by size, it is far and away the largest remaining. It looks bad on a map, and jumps out to the eye immediately. And while the temptation may be to laugh at ND's tiny population, this is a major interstate (and inter-country) route that's being opened up.

 

[kengchang]

Anyone know the rough cost of trucking a car across the US, and also if part/most of that cost is recouped by a cheaper rate to ship from east coast to Europe compared to west coast departure?

Somewhere in The Boring Company offices there is a map of the 55 mile width Bering Strait separating North America from Russia...

Bering Strait crossing - Wikipedia

How Much Does A Truck Driver Make Per Mile?
Trucker are paid 28~40 cents per mile. So 2900 miles from Fremont to Philly = .40*2900 = $1160 / 9 cars = ~$130/car

 

[kengchang]

Insurance site is back up, I'm getting lower quotes now.

Seems competitive if I factor in 15-25% multi policy discount and 10% multi car discount

 

[deffu]

Previous quote 179.48/m, new quote 109.63/m. current insurance at 104.2/m with bundle discount from a house and highest coverage.
It's getting competitive

 

[RobStark]

Insurance site is back up, I'm getting lower quotes now.

It's Fred's fault.

 

[EVNow]

Everything that's been hinted or leaked so far has reinforced the narrative that Q3 will be higher production. Wouldn't be surprised if the average for model 3 for all of Q3 is closer to 7,500/week than 7,000/week

Assuming 12 weeks, 7k/wk would be 84k and 7.5k would be 90k.

Assuming 13 weeks, 7k/wk would be 91k and 7.5k would be 97k.

My current 3 production estimate is 78k. We might get a slightly better idea once august delivery estimates are out.​

 

[EVNow]

How Much Does A Truck Driver Make Per Mile?
Trucker are paid 28~40 cents per mile. So 2900 miles from Fremont to Philly = .40*2900 = $1160 / 9 cars = ~$130/car

Ofcourse there are other costs.

 

[KarenRei]

Assuming 12 weeks, 7k/wk would be 84k and 7.5k would be 90k.

Assuming 13 weeks, 7k/wk would be 91k and 7.5k would be 97k.

My current 3 production estimate is 78k. We might get a slightly better idea once august delivery estimates are out.​

Sounds way too low to me. That'd be the expected number if they made no production improvements at all this quarter and just kept constant at the end-of-Q2 rate.

 

[KSilver2000]

Yup, like everyone else, my new quote is competitive. Just about 10% more than my current policy premium. The big question though is how is their claims procedure and resolution handling service.

Too many question marks for me to be one of the first to sign up without any real world claims handling review.

I can wait since it’s not any cheaper than what I’m currently paying.

 

[Doggydogworld]

How Much Does A Truck Driver Make Per Mile?
Trucker are paid 28~40 cents per mile. So 2900 miles from Fremont to Philly = .40*2900 = $1160 / 9 cars = ~$130/car

That's just the driver, it doesn't include fuel, etc. It costs roughly a grand to ship a single car, probably ~600 per car if you fill the trailier.

 

[EVNow]

Sounds way too low to me. That'd be the expected number if they made no production improvements at all this quarter and just kept constant at the end-of-Q2 rate.

Yes.

The assumption is that the deliveries will only be marginally better than Q2 ~98k. To hold the inventory somewhat steady would mean a modest increase in 3 production to 78k from 72k.

If the orders are higher, they could increase production (if they can). We should also check where the battery production is at.

ps : Also, the deliveries are what is needed for break-even non-gaap EPS (with my other ASP, margin etc assumptions). Yahoo shows analyst estimates that are even lower (Revenue of 6.34B vs my 6.5B) and (EPS of -0.45 vs 0.1).

 

[Artful Dodger]

That's great but do they have a service center?

No, but their USB music works grate.

 

[Carl Raymond]

No, but their USB music works grate.

I see the word "Tesla" creeping back into this disqus page. Not that I'm stalking - it's just a page I've checked habitually for about 4 years for interesting Tesla insights.

Disqus Profile - neroden

 

[HG Wells]

No, but their USB music works grate.

Yes, USB low bit rates grate on your ears.

 

[Reinhard]

Sounds way too low to me. That'd be the expected number if they made no production improvements at all this quarter and just kept constant at the end-of-Q2 rate.

Q2 produced 72,531 Model 3s or 5579 per week
Q1 produced 62,950 Model 3s or 4842 per week

TSLA may have achieved a burst rate of 7000 per week at the end of Q2, but it would be difficult for them to sustain it for the entire quarter (I may be wrong).

If the same improvement occurs in Q3 as it did in Q2, I would expect 737 more models 3 per week on average. This would yield:

Q3 production 82,108 Model 3s or 6316 per week