Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Sure, let's look at Driver's License, as you mentioned it and I have some background with that in particular.

Just because a statute alludes to something as being a "violation" doesn't mean the state can punish someone over it.

Driver's license is a good example, as I have successfully tested this in court. Twice.

There are only punishment clauses for those who have applied for and hold a Driver license.

Driving on expired license has a punishment clause​

Driving on revoked license has a punishment clause​

Driving on suspended license has a punishment clause​

There's no punishment clause for a non-commercial person for "Driving without a license*,"
mostly because such a statute would impair a person's freedom, which is a reserved right in the US.

The definition for "license" for the Driver's License section of the state code supports this:

​

6) “License” means an authorization to operate a motor vehicle that is issued under or granted by the laws of this state. The term includes:​

(A) a driver’s license;​

(B) the privilege of a person to operate a motor vehicle regardless of whether the person holds a driver’s license; and​

(C) a nonresident’s operating privilege.​

​

*Caveat: Commercial drivers must hold a driver's license. That is is required and has a punishment clause, because the state may regulate commerce.

Most people do not have a working understanding of common law (the basis of law in the US) and are taken advantage of in inferior (kangaroo) courts, such as Justice of the Peace and City courts. Mostly because they do not know how to exercise their right to a trial in a superior court of record where the presumption of jurisdiction can be successfully challenged.


How in the wide world of sports does this in any way relate to the Investment Thread?

Tesla and FSD are likely subject to being required to stop at stop signs because FSD is acting in commerce.
People are paying for a service. States can regulate commerce. FSD is likely treated as a commercial driver, under the law.

Non-commercial drivers who slow-roll should not be held to this requirement as jurisdiction is not applicable to them, as long as there is no actual injured party** bringing charges. Modeling the behavior of non-commercial drivers may leave some situations where what most people do would be prohibited by law for a commercial driver to do. School busses and tanker trucks having mandatory stop for all railroad crossing might be a good example.

**the "state" routinely masquerades as the injured party for non-commercial traffic violations.
If an objection is not raised in arraignment for a "court of record" over this, the rules of court allow the cause to proceed on the presumption that both sides are in agreement about jurisdiction being applicable. In my experience, the prosecution will try to steamroll though arraignment as if it doesn't exist. I had to speak up and have an affidavit in the record for my claims.

Here's the rub, the state is a "body politic" and is not a "legal person" in court (human, or a corporation, association, etc. registered with the state).

I have successfully had cases dismissed by applying this strategy in arraignment for courts of record. It was a pain to take time for court in order to prove this, and it was a matter of principle for me, as I started out trying to prove someone else wrong. In the end the court supported how that person had been right, and I now know with demonstrable certainty that traffic laws being enforced on non-commercial drivers, with no injured party, are a complete sham.

I take it you are not in Michigan nor travel through it...

(1) A person whose operator's or chauffeur's license or registration certificate has been suspended or revoked, whose application for license has been denied, or who has never applied for a license, shall not operate a motor vehicle on a highway or other place open to the general public or generally accessible to motor vehicles, including an area designated for the parking of motor vehicles, within this state.
(3) Except as otherwise provided in this section, a person who violates subsection (1) or (2) is guilty of a misdemeanor punishable as follows:
(a) For a first violation, by imprisonment for not more than 93 days or a fine of not more than $500.00, or both. Unless the vehicle was stolen or used with the permission of a person who did not knowingly permit an unlicensed driver to operate the vehicle, the registration plates of the vehicle shall be canceled by the secretary of state on notification by a peace officer.
(b) For a violation that occurs after a prior conviction, by imprisonment for not more than 1 year or a fine of not more than $1,000.00, or both. Unless the vehicle was stolen, the registration plates of the vehicle shall be canceled by the secretary of state on notification by a peace officer.

 

[aubreymcfato]

From the Washington Post (sorry, political but I think quite important)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/09/trump-oil-industry-campaign-money/

 

[GatorMeat]

Mods:

It's like we're talking Nationalism here, trying to decide who should be in this country after leaving the border unattended.

Obviously there is subjectivity on post quality/intentions, but over time should be pretty clear the motives, especially after weeks of repeat attacks. This goes double for the people who insist on feeding the trolls after repeat warnings from multiple directions - was obvious to many here.

If you were on vacation or just checked out for a few weeks while FSD was rolling, fine let us know next time. You are forgiven. I even thought at one point... what if TMC was influence externally (money or pressure). Sounds woke I know. But the battle is pretty real out there and something unusual happened the past few week on TMC. My only evidence is that nothing is adding up, key people have left, and it appears that the FUD is scoring big time.

So what happened to just removing or suspending the nagging people that are either FUD or Disgruntled to the Moon? My ignore list is still in play and necessary (up until yesterday anyway). I might be on your list if the goal is monolithic and uninterrupted - that's fine. Just keep in mind, I don't downvote, I speak from the heart, and this place needs more people from Canada or elsewhere.

Anything to mute this thread into some good ol' boy's club is indeed a failure on the mission. Unless I completely missed the point of this thread.

The theme should be to Get Rid of the NAG. Not throw out the baby with the bathwater.

The stock is broken and down over 50% from it's ATH. Lots of long time investors have left the stock. Why would a forum of ultra-bulls still thrive in this environment? They have sold off their holdings and left. Most rational ultra-bulls of the past have sobered up and if they are still in the stock they are pissed off. Even the ones that have a single digit cost basis. You cannot rationalize the loss many portfolios have taken while the rest of tech stocks are hitting ATH.

Elon is the head of the two worst performing tech companies of the last 3 years in Twitter and TSLA. He broke TSLA with his Twitter acquisition and his new role as influencer. That cannot be denied. Sure other, smaller factors are involved, but Elon's affair with public attention and his $40B breakup with $TSLA is #1. Now the BOD in name only wants to give Elon his $56B back. Many have had enough.

Some other posters left years ago and rode the Elon pump to become paid Tesla influencers and helped to attract more new investors for Elon's pump. Funny that those have become quiet (retired off the pump and dump?) now too and there appears to be a new stable of TSLA pumpers on social medias now.

Elon broke the stock, now the company and long time employees and bulls are jumping ship. It's not rocket science.

 

[Zero CO2]

seems as though the trolls are winning...the talk about limiting free speech on this thread is unacceptable ... even with all the noise one of the best places for breaking news and more in depth analysis on Tesla and Tesla

 

[GatorMeat]

From the Washington Post (sorry, political but I think quite important)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/09/trump-oil-industry-campaign-money/

View attachment 1045588

Not a surprise. This is always how US politics has worked. It started with rules and regulations to help the plantation owners get rich by exploiting the land and people. Nothing has changed.

 

[mongo]

The stock is broken and down over 50% from it's ATH. Lots of long time investors have left the stock. Why would a forum of ultra-bulls still thrive in this environment? They have sold off their holdings and left. Most rational ultra-bulls of the past have sobered up and if they are still in the stock they are pissed off. Even the ones that have a single digit cost basis. You cannot rationalize the loss many portfolios have taken while the rest of tech stocks are hitting ATH.

Elon is the head of the two worst performing tech companies of the last 3 years in Twitter and TSLA. He broke TSLA with his Twitter acquisition and his new role as influencer. That cannot be denied. Sure other, smaller factors are involved, but Elon's affair with public attention and his $40B breakup with $TSLA is #1. Now the BOD in name only wants to give Elon his $56B back. Many have had enough.

Some other posters left years ago and rode the Elon pump to become paid Tesla influencers and helped to attract more new investors for Elon's pump. Funny that those have become quiet (retired off the pump and dump?) now too and there appears to be a new stable of TSLA pumpers on social medias now.

Elon broke the stock, now the company and long time employees and bulls are jumping ship. It's not rocket science.

This is the investing-in-Tesla thread, not the make-the-most-money-in-random-stock thread.
FSD, Optimus, Cybertruck, new lower cost models, robotaxi, Megapack expansion are all positives to look forward to regardless of transitory (up or down) stock price.

 

[Mengy]

The stock is broken and down over 50% from it's ATH. Lots of long time investors have left the stock. Why would a forum of ultra-bulls still thrive in this environment? They have sold off their holdings and left. Most rational ultra-bulls of the past have sobered up and if they are still in the stock they are pissed off. Even the ones that have a single digit cost basis. You cannot rationalize the loss many portfolios have taken while the rest of tech stocks are hitting ATH.

Here is why I disagree with you:

You can certainly rationalize why TSLA investors might remain holding the stock even through all of this turmoil and down times. Confidence in Tesla's future is why many investors still own and hold TSLA. Energy, autonomy, and Optimus are massive products coming down the line with huge revenue potential, so anyone (who is a long term investor) who believes these products are indeed on the way would have no issue holding TSLA while its down so much. Even possibly for many years yet while these products come to fruition.

Tesla cars were always just the starting point of Tesla, the stepping stones to the actual company. Ten years from now the auto part of the business will be one of the smallest parts of the business. If someone doesn't believe that then yes they should sell TSLA and invest into something else.

 

[ggies07]

Tesla cars were always just the starting point of Tesla, the stepping stones to the actual company. Ten years from now the auto part of the business will be one of the smallest parts of the business. If someone doesn't believe that then yes they should sell TSLA and invest into something else.

Exactly. We haven't even gotten to the good stuff yet! The timeline for holding for years now as always been at least 2030 if not beyond because:


Legendary Oil Trader Says the End of Demand Growth in Sight

“There’s a non-zero chance that by 2030, we will see a plateauing or decline in global oil consumption,” the former hedge fund manager said at an industry event in New York. “It’ll happen because of technology, electric cars, renewable energy.”

“If the world fully transitions to renewable energy, what is the role of a fossil fuel company?” he said. “I think renewables is the new oil.”

WoodMac: Demand For Oil In Transportation Sector To Peak In A Decade | OilPrice.com

Crude oil demand in the global transportation sector is set to peak in the late 2020s according to energy consultancy WoodMackenzie

oilprice.com

Most major oil companies and analysts also believe that by the late 2020s crude oil demand for transportation fuels will stop growing.

Billionaire Oil Trading Veteran Bets Big On Batteries | OilPrice.com

Billionaire Alex Beard, who retired as head of worldwide oil operations at commodities and mining giant Glencore two years ago, has set his sights on the battery storage market in the UK

oilprice.com

"I have time for a second career in energy markets. It won't be oil and gas but it will be the transition away from carbon that will be most relevant for the next 25 years," Beard told Reuters in an interview—his first since he left Glencore in 2019.

 

[sunwarriors]

The point of having a design center in China and California never made sense to me. Even if Tesla product line expanded to from 5 to 10 vehicles, does it really necessitate two separate design teams? Engineering yes, design, no.

My guess is that the Chinese market has different preferences than the US and having 1.4+ billion people, is a large population base to possibly cater to their preferences. From what I've seen, most? high end Chinese car has Karaoke in it, cars in China may also be driven by a chauffeur. Would someone born/raised/grew up in the US know those nuances not to mention ones I don't know? I can't say personally, but I wouldn't care for any of those things I've mentioned, but this maybe where there was a separate design team.

This is sorta an old article, but face is a big deal in Asia in general:

Why do the Chinese Love Long Wheelbase Cars?

If you have spent a bit of time in China, and taken a look at the Chinese car market, you’ll notice an interesting trend. There are many models which carry the letter ‘L’ in their badging, and on closer inspection, you’ll notice that they are actually a tad bit longer than usual.

www.oneshift.com

https://www.reddit.com/r/cars/comments/q03fb8/why_are_there_long_wheelbase_cars_for_the_chinese

 

[sunwarriors]

Advertising is also about targeting your potential buyers, especially in the digital age where results are more easily measured. Kardashians sell makeup and skims to young women that don't see they are idolizing a *hore.

I really wish Kim K would just stop posting with her Cybertruck because it makes me want to cancel my order and many other pickup truck owners feel the same.

Like you say for yourself, there are people who DON'T want to associate with a certain brand if someone they aren't fans of have something they might have bought. I've seen/known enough folks not buying a Tesla because of Elon, some folks may choose not buy a CT because of some of these "influencers".

I think the CT hype will die down soon, I see quite a few on the roads already.

 

[philw1776]

From Reuters 2022 article:
'As part of the latest probe, Justice Department prosecutors in Washington and San Francisco are examining whether Tesla misled consumers, investors and regulators by making unsupported claims about its driver assistance technology's capabilities, the sources said.'

So they were looking for fraud. Now Reuters has given us an update on the situation - what they're looking for is fraud.

TSLA down 3.5% on the news.

"Show me the man, and I'll show you the crime."
We are living in a Stalinist error era.
Sic Transit Gloria Republic USA.

 

[insaneoctane]

Agree, but then it should be enforced consistently. You can’t enforce a law on some subset of vehicles (autonomous) but then let it slide for every other vehicle on the road. Not only is it not fair, but it causes road rage—human drivers are used to “California Stops” and get road rage when they’re stuck behind a car that stops much longer and more completely than other cars.

Either enforce it on everyone, or don’t enforce it at all.

I'd argue that in it's current implementation it's less safe. FSD not only comes to a complete stop, but it takes an unusually long time (by human standards) to assess the post-stop take off. Not sure if it's related to the creep or what, but I worry every time when I have human drivers behind me, that if they anticipate human behavior from my vehicle, the likelihood of getting tapped from behind is increased. Technically not my fault, but so what?

 

[FreqFlyer]

My guess is that the Chinese market has different preferences than the US and having 1.4+ billion people, is a large population base to possibly cater to their preferences. From what I've seen, most? high end Chinese car has Karaoke in it, cars in China may also be driven by a chauffeur. Would someone born/raised/grew up in the US know those nuances not to mention ones I don't know? I can't say personally, but I wouldn't care for any of those things I've mentioned, but this maybe where there was a separate design team.

This is sorta an old article, but face is a big deal in Asia in general:

Why do the Chinese Love Long Wheelbase Cars?

If you have spent a bit of time in China, and taken a look at the Chinese car market, you’ll notice an interesting trend. There are many models which carry the letter ‘L’ in their badging, and on closer inspection, you’ll notice that they are actually a tad bit longer than usual.

www.oneshift.com

https://www.reddit.com/r/cars/comments/q03fb8/why_are_there_long_wheelbase_cars_for_the_chinese

True, but how much variation is there for cars bound for the Chinese market compared to ROW. The new M3 Performance has 19-inch wheels for the China and others vs 20 inches for ROW. So again, why the separate design team?

 

[Musskiah]

The only question now is if it applies to all FSD (including highway) or just end-to-end NN FSD (which is city streets only still AFAIK - I believe highway is still on the old NN stack from before end to end). Maybe this new release will bring us end to end for highway?

The hoped for eventual removal of hand-on-wheel nag was the main reason I upgraded from EAP to FSD when it was heavily discounted way back in the day. I do use city streets FSD some, but I almost entirely use it for highway scenarios. Usually I prefer to drive streets myself as the car typically is a little more aggressive in acceleration/deceleration than I would like, especially if there's anything in the car like groceries. I wish I could actually make it drive 'chill' ... I don't care if it's technically 1% more efficient or something.

This is a good distinction to draw. The highway nag rate on 12.3.6 is already so infrequent compared to the 11.x version, I would be surprised if they dropped the nag from city streets in v12.4 and kept it for highway (which is far less critical than city).

 

[Musskiah]

I know I wouldn't (because I'm a spoiled and lazy boomer ).

"Lazy boomer" is kind of redundant, doncha think? I'm totally joking.

My sincere comment: I want to come to the defense of boomers. People use "boomer" as a pejorative, and I am grateful for the boomer generation as they are responsible for the many luxuries I enjoy - which, in turn, make me spoiled and lazy!

 

[cab]

Forgive me if this has already been theorized (lot to cover in the thread these days), but could one reason for the dismantling of the Supercharger team (or subteam), be that RoboTaxis will require a simpler "centralized hub" model of superchargers (i.e, fewer, large locations vs. many smaller locations)? I could be entirely wrong on this, but I assume larger metroplexes could definitely have "high traffic" areas where big hubs would be used...and supercharging is just one element of those hubs (which would also include service, detailing, etc.). Here in the Dallas area, I'd put one of those near DFW airport as an example.

 

[sunwarriors]

True, but how much variation is there for cars bound for the Chinese market compared to ROW. The new M3 Performance has 19-inch wheels for the China and others vs 20 inches for ROW. So again, why the separate design team?

From those articles, some manufacturer's make specific models only for China. As one of those articles mentioned, some of this is also for face. You build a factory, maybe Elon has to show face and show that not only cheap manufacturer jobs can be here.

You can take what Franz said on this for the answer for the why:

Tesla exec talks China's Design Center location, fluidity, and why cross-departmental cooperation matters

Tesla Chief of Design Franz von Holzhausen’s recent talk with select members of the Chinese media showcased several key insights from the esteemed executive. During his conversation, von Holzhausen touched on topics such as Tesla’s upcoming Design Center in China, the difference between vehicle...

www.teslarati.com

https://carnewschina.com/2022/02/21/after-l-a-teslas-second-design-center-to-be-in-beijing/

 

[2daMoon]

I take it you are not in Michigan nor travel through it...

You are correct, but...

Spoiler: Just the facts...

It took a lot of research to dig through the statutes to see how they managed to write the law in a way to not circumvent constitutionally reserved rights.

I expect that Michigan will have similar weasel words woven into their statutes, or, there has been no challenge in court to prove otherwise. Poorly written laws exist. The remedy in law also exists that any law which impairs a reserved right is considered null and void on its enactment. All state law must be measured against reservations set in the US constitution. If one state does this more clearly than another, they both must still meet that standard. How they meet that standard may vary, but it must be met.

With that understanding, I was able to discover how the driver's license, motor vehicle registration, and even the licensing of attorneys had clear language in the state statutes that limited their application in a way that conforms to limitations imposed by state and federal constitutions.

If you want to pursue it, begin your search with that premise in mind. If you cannot find how they got around it, do like I did and take it to court yourself.

Weasel words are an art form. The term "United States" has three different contextual definitions in law. The term "Shall" is defined so it can mean "May" in law under certain circumstances. Keep that in mind when you find "shall" in a statute. Purchase a copy of Black's or Bouvier's Law dictionary from the early 1900s or late 1800s, the older the better, as they will have additional Supreme Court precedent references that for some reason don't appear in later versions, but do still exist in the court's record.

My first step in a multi-year journey, after getting a run around to my questions from representatives in the legislative and administrative branches, was to cut up the license I had, mail it to the issuing body, and receive a fax confirming they had received it. Thus establishing I had withdrawn my application.

Then, it took a couple of years before I was cited (oddly enough, for "stopping too quickly" for a stop sign) and could then take it to the judicial branch in order to get the question answered definitively. The case was eventually dismissed as the prosecutor could not rebut my claim about lack of jurisdiction existing, after having called me back to court on three dates over several months. It wasn't for their lack of trying, it was simply that my affidavit was factual and there wasn't anything they could do to change that.

Once this question was settled, I re-applied for a driver's license and have held it ever since.

Attorneys, legislators, and administrators should never be trusted to act in good faith.

Or, alternatively, you may certainly continue to avoid applying the maxim, "you get what you inspect, not what you expect" if that is less trouble for you. Frankly, I would recommend that course of action. You are probably not as stubborn, nor as willing to do the digging to find out how Michigan obfuscates this in their statutes.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Here is why I disagree with you:

You can certainly rationalize why TSLA investors might remain holding the stock even through all of this turmoil and down times. Confidence in Tesla's future is why many investors still own and hold TSLA. Energy, autonomy, and Optimus are massive products coming down the line with huge revenue potential, so anyone (who is a long term investor) who believes these products are indeed on the way would have no issue holding TSLA while its down so much. Even possibly for many years yet while these products come to fruition.

Tesla cars were always just the starting point of Tesla, the stepping stones to the actual company. Ten years from now the auto part of the business will be one of the smallest parts of the business. If someone doesn't believe that then yes they should sell TSLA and invest into something else.

These are indeed uncertain times.
Elon himself fuels the uncertainty, and I agree with many here that his public persona has alienated so much of Tesla original constituency (the progressive/environmental/Californian people who bought into Tesla and TSLA) that right now, in this "down" moment of the energy transition, it can't be denied that some of his bet are not quite paying off. Some would add... "yet".
I still believe that some of his more important bets will pay off: Energy is growing; Semi too slowly, but too; FSD will come, sooner or later. And probably even Optimus.
But theres' no denying that he is indeed accountable for the situation: even if this all happened because he put his trust in other people in the last year... it's still his fault. The buck stops with him.

He has proved again and again that SpaceX + Tesla was doable for him, and engineering wise it made sense. He played on his strengths. He's really great in that regard.
But nobody asked him to buy Twitter, and that was too much on his plate. There aren't literally enough hours in a day to juggle 3 companies so complex and big... And, as CEO, he let Tesla slip. And this is the most charitable interpretation of the last year.
If he actually saw now something in Tesla that actually worries him, and it's the reason for the recent layoffs, then its his fault as CEO.
I'd be really, really mad at him mad if I were let go right now.

And I even think that he should suck it up if people won't vote "yes" to his compensation plan. There is a concrete possibility, out there on X the morale is quite low. He'll live and be a gigatrillionaire anyway in a few years.

 

[sunwarriors]

Ideal Musk employee who's now available:

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/09/tech/china-qu-jing-baidu-pr-backlash-hnk-intl/index.html

Mods, feel free to delete/move if you feel necessary, but this is what demon mode is about and why employees may not want to sign up for it now, if there is a slowdown (not to mention, giving demon mode/80 hours/sleeping at work didn't guarantee you'll be there after a few months neither), you can replace the Baidu saga with Tesla saga:

"“When companies demand complete loyalty, time and energy from their employees, employees feel there’s no reciprocity or reward for their sacrifice or contribution, especially when things are slowing down. That becomes the central conflict, and this conflict is also at the heart of the Baidu saga,” Yang added."