Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[durkie]

"Show me the man, and I'll show you the crime."
We are living in a Stalinist error era.
Sic Transit Gloria Republic USA.

What?

Is your response to "Regulators are investigating if Tesla consumers and investors were misled about self-driving claims" simply "hey, we're all probably guilty of something"?

 

[philw1776]

Unlikely since stopping at stop signs is the law. (At least here in EU, not sure about every U.S. state)

It's not because most drivers disobey the law that an autonomous system (which will be held to the highest standards) has the same right. It's not a right to not come to a full stop. It's a traffic violation.

Either the law should be changed or the signs replaced by yield-signs, or drivers (biological ones or silicon ones) should obey the law.

It does amaze me how many people are up in arms about FSD being "unfriendly" to human drivers by stopping at stop signs. It's a stop sign. If the driver behind the FSD Tesla is annoyed by the Tesla coming to a stop it is they that are the problem.

Nobody will care when being driven by an autonomous Tesla that it comes to a stop at stop signs. As long as it happens smoothly. It even feels way safer for the passengers.

So yeah, the stop sign thing is not an issue IMO.

Disagree. Problem being that the FSD still hesitates far longer than a human before proceeding. Drives like a 90 year old at stop signs.
C'mon man, you (Tesla) have more cameras than we have eyes plus Tesla can look ahead and left and right simultaneously even before coming to a fulll stop. USE the visual tech. Stop and decide to proceed faster than a 90 yr old.

 

[elasalle]

From the Washington Post (sorry, political but I think quite important)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/09/trump-oil-industry-campaign-money/

View attachment 1045588

cancelling of credits ..
Will hurt OEMs trying to make hybrids to get the EV credits more (or as much as) than Tesla in the long run.

 

[scaesare]

FSD 12.4 will annihilate your brain.

 

[thx1139]

Disagree. Problem being that the FSD still hesitates far longer than a human before proceeding. Drives like a 90 year old at stop signs.
C'mom you (Tesla) have more cameras than we have eyes plus Tesla can look ahead and left and right simultaneously even before coming to a fulll stop. USE the visual tech. Stop and decide to proceed faster than a 90 yr old.

Yesterday we were in rural area. Came to a number of country 4 way stops with absolutely no other cars and you had to beg the car to go and when it did it crawled. Had a number of irritated cars behind us. That and the hard brakes when it should just do regenerative braking when coming to a red light or cars at a red light are the biggest issues that cause wives to not approve of FSD. Unless an emergency braking shouldnt cause you to lurch forward.

 

[Speedr117]

Yesterday we were in rural area. Came to a number of country 4 way stops with absolutely no other cars and you had to beg the car to go and when it did it crawled. Had a number of irritated cars behind us. That and the hard brakes when it should just do regenerative braking when coming to a red light or cars at a red light are the biggest issues that cause wives to not approve of FSD. Unless an emergency braking shouldnt cause you to lurch forward.

FSD 12.4 is almost all newly trained, so I expect a lot of these things will change for the better.

 

[philw1776]

Yesterday we were in rural area. Came to a number of country 4 way stops with absolutely no other cars and you had to beg the car to go and when it did it crawled. Had a number of irritated cars behind us. That and the hard brakes when it should just do regenerative braking when coming to a red light or cars at a red light are the biggest issues that cause wives to not approve of FSD. Unless an emergency braking shouldnt cause you to lurch forward.

Quoting because it is SO on point.

 

[scaesare]

Door panels are thick for side impact. They aren't structural. Take the doors off and the truck wouldn't suddenly get all flexy.

I also remembered something about the sails helping rigidity -- in fact I thought that's why they got rid of the sail storage bins. But this guy says otherwise. Maybe he's wrong. As for the pics, most everything that's not orange is the frame. Plus the battery pack, or at least the top cover. As I said it's highly engineered. Nothing like legacy pickup ladder frames. Of course you're not going to pull the bed off and put a flatbed or tilt bed or utility bed on CT, either.

I suspect that the development of gigacastings in the interim time frame is part of the reason why. The prototype CT, and its planned construction methodology, may have placed more load on the exterior panels as a method to eliminate the traditional "body on ladder frame" design. As the advantages of gigacastings became apparent, and the machines needed for the scale CT became available, the CT design evolved.

Removing the panels may not make the entire truck sag, but as the diagrams @mongo posted show, they have appear to have some structural role above and beyond typical automotive body panels.

 

[jerry33]

Agree, but then it should be enforced consistently. You can’t enforce a law on some subset of vehicles (autonomous) but then let it slide for every other vehicle on the road. Not only is it not fair, but it causes road rage—human drivers are used to “California Stops” and get road rage when they’re stuck behind a car that stops much longer and more completely than other cars.

Either enforce it on everyone, or don’t enforce it at all.

I don't believe enough people exit to fill the police ranks to enforce it for everyone. Best to not enforce it for all. However, if you hit someone by not fully stopping, then, regardless of what the other driver was doing, it's your fault.

 

[SOULPEDL]

cancelling of credits ..
Will hurt OEMs trying to make hybrids to get the EV credits more (or as much as) than Tesla in the long run.

Knowing our Gov't in it's current posturing, they would likely make an exception (for another Billion please?)
Sunset the Hybrids in 2030, cancel BEVs since the rich can afford it.

Sad but I could see it being sold to both Congress and society. A way of giving to the people who "can't afford a Tesla". It solves grid overload, Japan is happy, less mining, little cars, etc...

 

[growler23]

Forgive me if this has already been theorized (lot to cover in the thread these days), but could one reason for the dismantling of the Supercharger team (or subteam), be that RoboTaxis will require a simpler "centralized hub" model of superchargers (i.e, fewer, large locations vs. many smaller locations)? I could be entirely wrong on this, but I assume larger metroplexes could definitely have "high traffic" areas where big hubs would be used...and supercharging is just one element of those hubs (which would also include service, detailing, etc.). Here in the Dallas area, I'd put one of those near DFW airport as an example.

I think that is a possibility. Elon (and presumably the Board) see a need for a new vision as Robotaxis are theoretically introduced. They may not fully grok the new vision (hubs as you say, or who knows what!), but they know that the old vision will be inadequate.
Also, as possible SC layoff reasoning, for those who missed Sandy Munro's rant on this (quite entertaining as his rants are), I will paraphrase:
<Sandy rant paraphrase on>
If you already have the best performing, longest lasting, cheapest Supercharger equipment on the market... exactly how many R&D (i.e. New Product Development) engineers do you think you need? This was a business decision, which is what Elon is paid to make.
<Sandy rant paraphrase off>
I.e. My interpretation: Time to focus future energy on new directions. And yes, I have also noticed that Supercharger sites are still getting opened now every day on supercharge.info (some already in Texas, yay!), so things are still happening and will continue to happen on Superchargers. The layoff to us uninformed outsiders looked extreme, but it doubtlessly got the attention of the other groups and managers, shed costly unneeded (not necessarily underperforming BTW) jobs, and trims the sails onto the new tack.

 

[scaesare]

China would have done this long ago, and Taiwan (TSMC) holds all the worlds chips. Funny thing, this conversation is actually about 5 yrs old, on this thread.

The copycat method chases a moving target for yesterday's tech that's not as safe. Needs the same hardware? What a selling point! /s

Sure, there's a market for it, but it would likely take an army of engineers to do the equivalent of brain surgery for even a snapshot in time, several iterations too late, and no hope of ever catching up. There's no business model there. Funding declined... again.

This meshes with Elon's "moats are lame, it's the pace of innovation" that counts.

 

[elasalle]

Knowing our Gov't in it's current posturing, they would likely make an exception (for another Billion please?)
Sunset the Hybrids in 2030, cancel BEVs since the rich can afford it.

Sad but I could see it being sold to both Congress and society. A way of giving to the people who "can't afford a Tesla". It solves grid overload, Japan is happy, less mining, little cars, etc...

But, but Tesla factory working 80hrs to produce MQ, the 25K car. Balance will then tilt for the masses... EV's will no longer be a rich person car

 

[2daMoon]

Forgive me if this has already been theorized (lot to cover in the thread these days), but could one reason for the dismantling of the Supercharger team (or subteam), be that RoboTaxis will require a simpler "centralized hub" model of superchargers (i.e, fewer, large locations vs. many smaller locations)? I could be entirely wrong on this, but I assume larger metroplexes could definitely have "high traffic" areas where big hubs would be used...and supercharging is just one element of those hubs (which would also include service, detailing, etc.). Here in the Dallas area, I'd put one of those near DFW airport as an example.

That likely plays a part, but I think that the network was in the past something that Tesla had to build in order to make the mission work.

Time has passed. EVs have achieved the tipping point threshold, and now that charging is becoming more crucial (and lucrative) others will finally be stepping in. Elon realizes Tesla can throttle back on that front. This frees up resources for focus on aspects of the mission that are more necessary for Tesla to focus upon, as you indicated.

The Superchargers are another example of where Tesla led by making a reliable, world-wide network to prove it could be done. Now that the model is there to copy, Elon knows that over time, only reliable charging networks will survive and letting them make mistakes and grow with less competition from the example they must emulate is good for the mission.

Now, local interests can decide where and how they want to have their chargers. They can come to Tesla and purchase them, along with a service contract. Or, they might go to another supplier. Either way the available charging options will continue to grow in pace with EV adoption.

Tesla getting out of the business of micro-managing site selection, permitting, and all the other burdensome local work that cannot be efficiently accomplished from a remote location, is a smart move.

Tesla can now steer feedback from user requests for new locations to those companies approaching Tesla about buying and installing chargers for fun and profit. Tesla has the knowledge and expertise to help them get that job done, without having to commit employees to managing the harder local tasks as had done before.

 

[lafrisbee]

On "investing" vs "Trading."
It seems obvious to me or am I wrong?
I get labelled a "trader" if I can clearly see (And believed Elon a year ago when he said it was going to be a rough year ahead for TSLA stockholders) that the EV market is not going to be a place to have ANY money for at least a year. Not ANY EV company. Sure the Moneymakers/Market makers will be able to yank the stock whichever direction they can devise a scenario to take advantage of retail investors pathetic psyches, But the EV market is not a place to be investing in in the current economic climate...and political instability as well.

SO I bounced out most of my TSLA holdings. I am not trading. I am investing. I'd be a moron to firmly believe I should keep a stock I strongly feel will go down for an extended period of time. Especially when Elon is whispering in my ear. I still believe Tesla will be a powerhouse in some of the largest sectors of the market. But I am not going to let my money stay in the stock if I can see/feel that the next year will suck.

 

[Max Plaid]

From the Washington Post (sorry, political but I think quite important)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/09/trump-oil-industry-campaign-money/

View attachment 1045588

Not only that, but: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/08/oil-industry-orders-trump-day-one-00156705

"The U.S. oil industry is drawing up ready-to-sign executive orders for Donald Trump aimed at pushing natural gas exports, cutting drilling costs and increasing offshore oil leases in case he wins a second term, according to energy executives with direct knowledge of the work"

I think we can be fairly confident that the IRA would get gutted too

 

[jerry33]

That likely plays a part, but I think that the network was in the past something that Tesla had to build in order to make the mission work.

Time has passed. EVs have achieved the tipping point threshold, and now that charging is becoming more crucial (and lucrative) others will finally be stepping in. Elon realizes Tesla can throttle back on that front. This frees up resources for focus on aspects of the mission that are more necessary for Tesla to focus upon, as you indicated.

The Superchargers are another example of where Tesla led by making a reliable, world-wide network to prove it could be done. Now that the model is there to copy, Elon knows that over time, only reliable charging networks will survive and letting them make mistakes and grow with less competition from the example they must emulate is good for the mission.

Now, local interests can decide where and how they want to have their chargers. They can come to Tesla and purchase them, along with a service contract. Or, they might go to another supplier. Either way the available charging options will continue to grow in pace with EV adoption.

Tesla getting out of the business of micro-managing site selection, permitting, and all the other burdensome local work that cannot be efficiently accomplished from a remote location, is a smart move.

Tesla can now steer feedback from user requests for new locations to those companies approaching Tesla about buying and installing chargers for fun and profit. Tesla has the knowledge and expertise to help them get that job done, without have to commit employees to managing the harder local tasks as had done before.

Proving it can be done and others actually doing it are two different things. I have little faith in those who copy actually having a stable, reliable, and affordable network.

 

[Matias]

I approve of this idea. But only if you remove all the other suggested members and it’s only me.

How about everyone having their own thread. It could be titled as “diary “.

 

[MP3Mike]

That likely plays a part, but I think that the network was in the past something that Tesla had to build in order to make the mission work.

Time has passed. EVs have achieved the tipping point threshold, and now that charging is becoming more crucial (and lucrative) others will finally be stepping in. Elon realizes Tesla can throttle back on that front. This frees up resources for focus on aspects of the mission that are more necessary for Tesla to focus upon, as you indicated.

The Superchargers are another example of where Tesla led by making a reliable, world-wide network to prove it could be done. Now that the model is there to copy, Elon knows that over time, only reliable charging networks will survive and letting them make mistakes and grow with less competition from the example they must emulate is good for the mission.

Now, local interests can decide where and how they want to have their chargers. They can come to Tesla and purchase them, along with a service contract. Or, they might go to another supplier. Either way the available charging options will continue to grow in pace with EV adoption.

Tesla getting out of the business of micro-managing site selection, permitting, and all the other burdensome local work that cannot be efficiently accomplished from a remote location, is a smart move.

Tesla can now steer feedback from user requests for new locations to those companies approaching Tesla about buying and installing chargers for fun and profit. Tesla has the knowledge and expertise to help them get that job done, without having to commit employees to managing the harder local tasks as had done before.

Well, then Tesla should stop making EVs too. They have proven that it can be done, and done profitably. They have even opened their patents to make it easier... Same for energy storage.

I do think that the Supercharger network is mature enough now that expansion can be slowed down a little and be done more strategically. But I don't want Tesla to get out of the business or stop expanding it.

Tesla shouldn't even consider stopping any of what they are doing until a lot of competitors are actually doing it at scale, reliably, and profitably. (In other words: likely never. )

 

[2daMoon]

having used Superchargers around 270 times, it is extremely convenient to, plug in charge, and go, having already set up the payment system.
having tried and failed to use others payment systems, frustration levels increased to "never again that system"

Which is exactly why Tesla is still in the game. Third parties will install Tesla chargers, and they will use the Tesla network to transact.

Everybody will have to step up their game, or, be left behind. Tesla's technology is the benchmark.

Tesla doesn't have to do all the legwork in the field to continue to grow the network. They can hand that part off to locals, and in exchange they will get a percentage of the take on the Tesla chargers they install.

The backbone of the Tesla infrastructure is what makes it superior. Not the permitting, wrangling with electric suppliers, managing contractors, and all the other headaches at the local level. Tesla can send someone out to verify it is installed to standard and turn it on when it is done.