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Huh... you’re not showing the blue SR+ in SF?


nope nada...

tried Chrome, Firefox, safari...no inventory

configured a SR+ standard and have a 2 week delivery date.

just tried New inventory on all models... nothing.

also tried Used many available cars are older model...non HW3...
I know there are MS out there weeks old, I have seen them at the service centers...

???
 
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I purchased my S six years ago. I got the longest range available at the time. There are trips I can't make in winter and some I can't make in summer. This isn't range anxiety, it's real world knowledge about the limitations of not enough range.

Winter kills my range by as much as 35% and couple that with Degradation of 10% over just the first 3 years you need the most range you can get.
 
They are producing more Model 3 then there is demand for them and at the same time they are stating they are producing less units. If you search new Model 3's available for immediate purchase there are tons of them available. There is no longer a backlog on orders.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think Tesla cleared all backlogs during Q1 and is now living off steady-state demand. I think it is increasing, but currently on the lower side of what we want. In Norway the delivery time for cars has reduced dramatically and it seems that if you are willing to take a configuration they have in stock you can get it really fast. However, there are some people still waiting for cars ordered in 2016 for whatever reason. They are still delivering about 30 cars a day now in Norway compared to the peak of several hundreds a day. I think this sounds like they are delivering in-stock cars at the rate that orders are coming in.

Just guessing I think Tesla closed the production line for some time during Q1 to do some upgrades as they realised they wouldn't be able to clear inventory if they produced at maximum speed.

Counterarguments:
  • A couple of members here reported the inventory going down significantly after Tesla made it available online a couple of days ago.
  • Elon said this about Model 3 demand, in reply to a Bloomberg reporter:
    • Elon Musk on Twitter
    • "There is 35 GWh/yr “theoretical capacity”, but actual max output is ~2/3. It was physically impossible to make more Model 3’s in Q1 due to cell constraints.'
  • Tesla still doesn't ship RHD units (30% of all cars in the world are RHD)
  • Tesla still doesn't ship any Model 3's to half of Europe and most of the rest of the world - about ~15% of the S/X market but possibly larger Model 3 markets. Tesla doesn't sell a Model 3 to @KarenRei at any price.
  • Tesla Storage is still in deep sleep, using only a single 2170 line at GF1.
  • Q1 deliveries report:
    • "Despite pull forward of demand from Q1 2019 into Q4 2018 due to the step down in the federal tax credit, US orders for Model 3 vehicles significantly outpaced what we were able to deliver in Q1."
  • Tesla revamped Model 3 pricing to increase Long Range prices and emphasize the SR+, which uses ~40% fewer cells, in a move to increase unit counts from a constrained cell supply.
All of these signs are consistent with Elon's very unambiguous claim that Model 3 production is cell supply limited.
 
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While I agree that people generally don't need a large range (I bought an MR), many people want greater range, and make buying decisions on that basis.
This community is happy to lash out at V8 powered pickup trucks and its drivers, but carrying twice the battery you realistically need, that's cool, even if it a needless sucker push to the environment? Might as well go rough up some orphans and disabled people.
 
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What demand problems do you see? (Serious question.)


On January 30th, Tesla guided to 1Q S&X deliveries of "slightly below Q1 2018" , that is, slightly below 21,815. Actual deliveries for the quarter were 12,600. That was not a production constrained problem. By the way, Tesla never updated guidance, even though they had to know they would be way below, which is why the final figure came as such a surprise.

This is the problem with credibility. As I vividly remember a judge once saying from the bench (fortunately not directed at me) "Credibility is like virginity. Once you lose it, you can never get it back."

So it goes with comments like "We had more orders for Model 3 than we could deliver." I really want to believe that is true. That way we can blame Panasonic, or parts shortages or wrong paperwork or other logistical problems for shortfall in deliveries." But something inside me fears that that they were including orders for the SR Model 3 that weren't even in production (even though delivery dates had been assigned). Hard not to have more orders than you can produce if you aren't making any effort to produce that variant.

Or I could be completely mistaken and "More orders really does mean more orders".

That's the problem when you lose credibility.

On a more positive note, the potential for an upside surprise could hardly be greater than it is right now. Biggest downside risk is that margins were worse than expected (in part due to deep discounting or incurring greater expense to maximize deliveries) that they make this a kitchen sink quarter to flush everything out. Also, store closings/severance would have been one time charges but operating costs will now be almost fully integrated into expenses. That may hurt EDITDA as well.
 
I am in a rural area of NJ and I can get 20 Model 3's within 20 miles from me.

Go to the Tesla website and configure a system.. What is the delivery time? If its less than 2 weeks you know the car is not being built and its already sitting on a lot.
Wait, so instead of using the "existing inventory" option you are relying on "time to delivery" and just arbitrarily deciding that if the never-could-be-wrong time to delivery is short the car has already been made. Good to know your insight into Tesla's logistics. :rolleyes:

I just checked and there were four SR+ (one black, three red) all >200 miles* from where I'm at. Funny that, SR+. Hmm... no performance or even long range.

[* it says "within 200 miles" but it ain't]
 
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There are enough vehicles produced with the limited options that customers have to choose from that anyone can get a car almost immediately. There is no more waiting for a car to be built like there was just a year ago.
As long as you don't want Red or Blue (within 200 miles of Philly), I suppose you are correct. I have been checking the total available in all options and it is hovering around 20 (+/- 5) but have yet to see a Performance and Reds and Blues continue to be rare.
 
A 20-80% fill is 60 kWh for 100Ds, 50 kWh for Model 3 LRs, etc. Let's say 50 kWh typical. 1100 kWh/day minus Powerpack and charging losses means the panels can charge ~20 cars/day. What's the average day for a 40 stall site, maybe 200 cars?

Making some FCAS cash on the side would be great, if allowed.
Feels like they'll need a little solar farm on the side nearby to shave off all peak rates. Almost like going into electric utility business at that point.
 
What demand problems do you see? (Serious question.)

Not who you responded to but going off of his post you can’t halve your S&X deliveries when you are having trouble shipping, producing, delivering the model 3.

If they had let them halve but delivered 65,00k Model3s this wouldn’t have been as big of an issue but until S&X deliveries get back to prior levels OR there’s a huge bump in model 3 deliveries (like 70k) the stock and financials will languish. So the earliest this notion could be proven is Q2 production delivery numbers.

Model 3 steady state demand hasn’t shown its head yet too many variables going on in 2019: tax credits, not open in certain markets, and model variant limitations in certain markets mean we won’t get a true picture until 2020 or late 2019.
 
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Volume seems lighter than usual.
Shrugg, all in regardless...

Market is waiting on the post-market ER.
Btw, other big companies report also today, so the waiting part (and low volume) is not unique to TSLA.

FySGqhK.png



Edit: Question- if the report is expected (internally) to be bad, doesn't it make more sense to report on Friday (letting the market to digest over the weekend)? Scheduling the report in the middle of the week + big event on Monday + important refresh on S/X announced on Tue is interesting "coincidence".
 
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Yeah, the tweet says its 250kW.
Question is how the production/installation costs (+financing?) minus the peak power rates could lower the electricity costs to make this more profitable? I guess also depends on usage(which, hopefully, should grow), so we won't know unless Tesla says something.
@M3Rider
well, looking at the short video, there will be 5 PowerPacks so 1/2 megawatt battery (500 kWh)
PV will be making between ~32,000kWh and ~40,000kWh per month or well over 1,000kWh/day
Tesla on Twitter
So they can sell FCAS (frequency control & Ancillary services) for grid stability, and charge Tesla's, _and_ be a VPP

as example Australia Hornsdale plant exceeded expectations. many stories about how it surprised folks about how well _and_ making money Hornsdale battery has 'significant impact' on market
It _should_ positively affect stock price
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