There are enough vehicles produced with the limited options that customers have to choose from that anyone can get a car almost immediately. There is no more waiting for a car to be built like there was just a year ago.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
There are enough vehicles produced with the limited options that customers have to choose from that anyone can get a car almost immediately. There is no more waiting for a car to be built like there was just a year ago.
This is not even close to being correct. There are many places that people travel through where 370 miles isn't nearly enough in poor weather to ensure a safe arrival. Now if there were charging stations every fifty miles on every Interstate and State highway, you might have a point, but there aren't and there likely won't be for many decades.
One thing the paper didn't mention, is whether the accuracy actually matters that much to self diving. Accuracy would make it easier to program the part where the car plan the road ahead. But even with low accuracy, as long as you can create a feed back loop between the 3d modeling and the planning engine to adjust for these inaccuracies, you should be OK.
More over, as kaparthy touched upon in his talk, the cameras are moving, they can use their 3d modeling at different time to correct itself, creating a consistent reality. And the only way to be consistent is to be mostly right.
Anyway, another independent evidence that Elon was right, again, against opinions of most expert in the field, just like reusable rockets. Gosh another boost to Musk's already big ego.
People who like to point out that Tesla has more range, that also only applies to such a tiny subset of people who actually need it. All the many other who buy it as just pumping CO2 into the atmosphere when they press "buy".
But, the 100 also needs like 3x the miles driven to break even against an ICEV. Outright wasteful unless you actually cannot charge more often than once in 250+ miles.
Taycan shows where it's at: 4C charging. You get very short stops and high travel speed, no need to boost battery capacity at monetary and environmental cost to get through the first 600 or 800 miles as quickly. Waste is waster. Let that sink in please.
Ioniq showed that it could hold its own against Bolt over 1,000 km. Despite less than half the battery size. That's what fast charging in combination with superior efficiency means.
Tesla is now moving into the fast charging space, but packs are still very large. Once V3 is reality, needlessly large. As fast CSS chargers pop up everywhere to serve the other brands' cars, that 100 kWh pack will be stupidly large, utterly wasteful. Let alone 100 kWh at Model 3's 3C.
The way this is all going, I think I could well swing a 50 kWh Model S with just one PMSR motor. Why actually needs more than 211 kW? ACTUALLY? With 150 kW, travel speed will be stellar. Who wants to pee in a bottle just to skip chargers?
Interesting. I just checked, within 200 miles of my location there is exactly 1 inventory Model 3 available: a blue SR+. Nothing else. You’re saying that’s the overriding spec?
Yeah, the tweet says its 250kW.
Question is how the production/installation costs (+financing?) minus the peak power rates could lower the electricity costs to make this more profitable? I guess also depends on usage(which, hopefully, should grow), so we won't know unless Tesla says something.
These cars are being built to last one million miles, right? Which % of those miles will be driven in a reality where there isn't a fast charger at every gas station AND in between?
Tesla is a brand of vision. Other brands are following it with their own tweaks. Should BEV lovers follow that vision, see that future? People were buying Teslas when some SC leaps were a bit scary at the speed limit. They raved about them anyways.
Range anxiety is just anxiety.
I am in a rural area of NJ and I can get 20 Model 3's within 20 miles from me.
Go to the Tesla website and configure a system.. What is the delivery time? If its less than 2 weeks you know the car is not being built and its already sitting on a lot.
Last edited:
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Is this a description of the state of affairs as you understand them to be, in all markets, or is this for a subset of markets (presumably US and Canada)? Are you claiming that the Europe and Asia, as well as RHD market, order backlog was sated in 2018 + Q1, and that there are excess Model 3's accumulating for sale in Norway for instance, and elsewhere in Europe? "tons" of them?
My understanding is that below the top two trims, Model 3 isn't even available in Europe or China yet (Q2). And that in these markets, there are functionally 0 inventory units available for immediate delivery.
And that there is a reasonably long list of markets where Model 3 isn't available in the top two trims (right hand drive being, I believe, the primary theme of this second list).
I think we're starting to get into the range of understanding US market demand for Model 3, where the evidence is that the full lineup is at least order able in the US, and most of the range of cars is also something you can expect to take delivery of in a reasonably short time frame. What I would describe and what I think of as a market healthy / company healthy wait between order and delivery (because broadly speaking, Tesla is better off when customers wait 2-4 weeks from order to delivery of the car that they want, than when they wait 2-4 months or more, and Tesla's long term business is better off when the customer wait from order to delivery is shorter than longer).
Until Tesla is delivering in something closer to all of the markets in the world, on something like the market equivalent of the 2-4 week order to delivery timeline of the US (I add 3 weeks for boat-on-ship for Europe and China deliveries, so 5-7 weeks for those orders), for the full range of the Model 3 timeline, then it looks to me like demand continues to outstrip the supply by a significant margin.
There is a reasonable different question arising from Q1 production about Tesla and Tesla's suppliers ability to produce Model 3's in something like the unit volume needed to sate that demand. I'm reasonably confident that if Tesla focuses on the top 2 trims of Model 3, then we will see worldwide demand for the top 2 trims of Model 3 become sated sometime this year (given that RHD variant comes to market, and becomes available in the big RHD markets).
So I think, without much evidence, that the worldwide demand for the top 2 trims (AWD, AWD Performance) of Model 3 are something less than 6 or 7k units / week; and possibly a lot less. Beyond that, there's too much pent up demand from year's of people waiting to know what the sustained Europe and China demand will be, once that pent up demand is sated. Or at least, that's the best I can say today about the long term demand, with what I know right now.
Right, so we’re back to delivery location. All northern CA buyers have no problem traveling to NJ to get the spec they want?
I won’t question for a second that Tesla might not be perfectly allocating inventory to those locations with proper demand, but that wouldn’t suggest a general demand problem.
Edit to add: I’m also not terribly surprised rural areas would have lower demand than denser suburban/urban ones.
Existing inventory for M3 is 0...
in San Jose, a few miles from the factory. Search was for 200 miles radius, all options.
Perhaps this is more about NJ dealership issues, not overall demand data.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Hmmmm … we are seeing the post ER drop even before the market closes.
Motor Mouth
Member
Not to mention the likely most important aspect of range - it helps quell uninformed consumer fears and increases adoption.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Converting from cylindrical to prismatic shouldn't be a big deal - electrode manufacture is the tricky part and should be mostly the same.
A 20-80% fill is 60 kWh for 100Ds, 50 kWh for Model 3 LRs, etc. Let's say 50 kWh typical. 1100 kWh/day minus Powerpack and charging losses means the panels can charge ~20 cars/day. What's the average day for a 40 stall site, maybe 200 cars?
Making some FCAS cash on the side would be great, if allowed.
Volume seems lighter than usual.
Shrugg, all in regardless...
I purchased my S six years ago. I got the longest range available at the time. There are trips I can't make in winter and some I can't make in summer. This isn't range anxiety, it's real world knowledge about the limitations of not enough range.
Where there isn't a fast charger at every gas station? About 90% won't have one.
3Victoria
Active Member
While I agree that people generally don't need a large range (I bought an MR), many people want greater range, and make buying decisions on that basis. Many people want the larger Teslas specifically because they drive long distances. Generalizing doesn't work here ... there is no one car that suits everyone, and there is no specific range that suits everyone.
I also don't agree with the 'demand has fallen' tale. We have heard it countless times before. It is most likely that Tesla was production constrained in Q1, by cell production and S/X line changes for the upgrade. In addition, they will have wanted to minimize new owner's pain, for those who recently bought, about missing out on the new range cars, by limiting availability. None of that points to reduced demand. Exposure to real EVs will goose demand fine.
erha
Member
I hope I'm wrong, but I think Tesla cleared all backlogs during Q1 and is now living off steady-state demand. I think it is increasing, but currently on the lower side of what we want. In Norway the delivery time for cars has reduced dramatically and it seems that if you are willing to take a configuration they have in stock you can get it really fast. However, there are some people still waiting for cars ordered in 2016 for whatever reason. They are still delivering about 30 cars a day now in Norway compared to the peak of several hundreds a day. I think this sounds like they are delivering in-stock cars at the rate that orders are coming in.
Just guessing I think Tesla closed the production line for some time during Q1 to do some upgrades as they realised they wouldn't be able to clear inventory if they produced at maximum speed.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
