Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Maybe specific to your bubble - I would assume early retirees with extra cash from the stock market ? Took me six months to get a decent tech job after 25 years of experience, and took a personal connection to get the attention. The job
Market in my industry has significantly changed. Instead of head hunters knocking on my door, most applications disappeared into a black hole, some got a template decline two months later. Also LinkedIn has turned into more of a Facebook than being effective for getting responses for outreach.

After a few years of retirement, I don't really qualify for any programming / database employment.

 

[2daMoon]

I think the Tesla web site is probably correct. If you order a Cybertruck AWD or Beast right now you will get it delivered in 2025. No previous reservation needed. You will only be in line behind reservation holders willing and able to buy an $80,000 car. That line is relatively short.

Out of the guesstimate of ~2 million current reservation holders, what percentage do you consider likely to take delivery before 2025 brings the single motor version?

I seem to recall a poll indicated that the lion's share of respondents reserved the 2 motor, and the single and triple were the outliers above and below that. So, let's call it 25% Single motor, 50% Dual motor, and 25% Tri motor.

Take the single motor count out for now. That leaves 1.5 million reservations for models that can be delivered in 2024.

Would 25% of that total taking delivery of a 2 or 3 motor CT seem a good working number to use? That is 375,000 CTs.

Maybe, just maybe, they deliver 80K in 2024, and 175K in 2025, ramping to an annual output of 250K at the end of 2025. Optimistic, but let's use it.

There would still be almost 120K of existing reservation holders in queue at the end of 2025, based on only a 25% take rate of 75% of existing reservations.

Now, add to that "short line" every CT reservation that has been made since the delivery event.

Also factor in how the current single motor reservations will begin deliveries in 2025 (but let's not even add those 125K CTs into the calculations)

Explain how someone ordering now will take delivery at any time in 2025, or even 2026, even when using a pessimistic fill rate on reservations and an optimistic production ramp.

 

[advocate8]

Tesla actually fighting some of the Washington Post FUD:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1734374558105293081

As an investor I’d have been a lot happier if Tesla had actually engaged with the reporters when they called and had a hand in shaping the story instead of sending back the usual poop emoji, then arguing with the resulting story. No one reads the fine print when someone complains about a negative story. This was an own goal by Tesla.

 

[jerry33]

As an investor I’d have been a lot happier if Tesla had actually engaged with the reporters when they called and had a hand in shaping the story instead of sending back the usual poop emoji, then arguing with the resulting story. No one reads the fine print when someone complains about a negative story. This was an own goal by Tesla.

Given that the reporters were probably charged with creating as much negativity as possible, and anything Tesla may have said would be quoted out of context, I don't see that there was any hope for a positive outcome.

 

[advocate8]

Given that the reporters were probably charged with creating as much negativity as possible, and anything Tesla may have said would be quoted out of context, I don't see that there was any hope for a positive outcome.

The reporters weren’t charged with anything. They were just working without one side’s version of the story. If the WaPo was engaged in that kind of conspiracy, they wouldn’t bother to post Tesla’s response.

 

[2daMoon]

The reporters weren’t charged with anything. They were just working (for Jeff Bezos) without one side’s version of the story.

FTFY

 

[MP3Mike]

The reporters weren’t charged with anything. They were just working without one side’s version of the story.

So, you are saying that they didn't do their job. They didn't report any of the information about the lawsuit where the driver openly admitted fault, which should all be a matter of public record. (Which likely included information about the driver overriding the speed limit AP applied, with the accelerator pedal, which prevented the vehicle from stopping for any reason.)

Tesla shouldn't have to do their work for them.

 

[GOVA]

There will be no 1 motor CT. 2 and 3 motor will remain in production. IMO

 

[advocate8]

So, you are saying that they didn't do their job. They didn't report any of the information about the lawsuit where the driver openly admitted fault, which should all be a matter of public record. (Which likely included information about the driver overriding the speed limit AP applied, with the accelerator pedal, which prevented the vehicle from stopping for any reason.)

Tesla shouldn't have to do their work for them.

I’m saying they weren’t experts on the issues. Tesla is, and could have educated them. Permanently. And it didn’t. PR hit for the company. They “train” a few dozen reporters on the facts, the whole climate of this sort of stuff changes. But sure, maybe its more satisfying and mature to send poop emojis and whine later.

 

[2daMoon]

There will be no 1 motor CT. 2 and 3 motor will remain in production. IMO

???

It is on the order page. So, I'm going with it being produced until it no longer is listed for orders.

 

[SmokyPeat]

As an investor I’d have been a lot happier if Tesla had actually engaged with the reporters when they called and had a hand in shaping the story instead of sending back the usual poop emoji, then arguing with the resulting story. No one reads the fine print when someone complains about a negative story. This was an own goal by Tesla.

I think they finally trashcanned the poop emoji response a number of weeks ago. I believe the current response is along the lines of: "We'll try to get back to you on that" or "Nobody is home right now". A small step in the right direction.

 

[Knightshade]

???

It is on the order page. So, I'm going with it being produced until it no longer is listed for orders.

The plaid plus was also on the order page.

See also the original SR Y and the RHD refresh S they never built either.

I've no particular dog in the fight of will a RWD CT ever exist- but Tesla has certainly decided not to make things it originally said it would (even after saying they'd make them for quite a long time)

 

[2daMoon]

I’m saying they weren’t experts on the issues. Tesla is, and could have educated them. Permanently. And it didn’t. PR hit for the company. They “train” a few dozen reporters on the facts, the whole climate of this sort of stuff changes. But sure, maybe its more satisfying and mature to send poop emojis and whine later.

It would be futile waste of resources. Plus, FUD gets the Tesla name out there more.
Any publicity is good publicity.
Here's why:

• Anyone who reads that and takes time to find out more about Tesla will quickly come to realize how someone tried to fool them. Then, they might order a Tesla, or at least share what they learned.

• Anyone who buys into the story hook, line, and sinker without doing even the most rudimentary follow up will have to wait until later to come to terms with how they were deceived.

Fortunately, this works out fine for Tesla because they can't build enough vehicles to sell to all of those easily fooled people anyway.

 

[CHGolferJim]

I think the Tesla web site is probably correct. If you order a Cybertruck AWD or Beast right now you will get it delivered in 2025. No previous reservation needed. You will only be in line behind reservation holders willing and able to buy an $80,000 car. That line is relatively short.

No way 90% of reservations evaporate……..

 

[Artful Dodger]

Keep in mind that CT sales are spoken for, for the foreseeable future. It will be at least five years or more before Tesla runs out of current reservation holders, plus any who put in a reservation going forward.

Yeah, I'll take the 'under' on that: My Post #435,388

The issue isn't when current reservations will be filled, it's when will Tesla start to lower prices to match (current) demand with (future) higher supply.

I estimate Q1 2025 +/- 3 mths and dual motor CTs pricing being the key.

#predict

 

[CHGolferJim]

The reporters weren’t charged with anything. They were just working without one side’s version of the story. If the WaPo was engaged in that kind of conspiracy, they wouldn’t bother to post Tesla’s response.

When has Siddiqui ever written a balanced or positive article about Tesla, he’s as reliable as Kolodny.

 

[2daMoon]

I think they finally trashcanned the poop emoji response a number of weeks ago. I believe the current response is along the lines of: "We'll try to get back to you on that" or "Nobody is home right now". A small step in the right direction.

It really should be,

"I'm sorry, our PR person is in the office, and is currently on an intergalactic cruise.
Would you like to leave a message for Mr. Zarniwoop?"​

 

[Artful Dodger]

Hope some board rooms out there are listening.

Of course their BoDs are listening;; that's why they are paying exorbitant fees to NY PR firms to attack Elon, and *sugar* on everything he does.

 

[2daMoon]

Yeah, I'll take the 'under' on that: My Post #435,388

The issue isn't when current reservations will be filled, it's when will Tesla start to lower prices to match (current) demand with (future) higher supply.

I estimate Q1 2025 +/- 3 mths and dual motor CTs pricing being the key.

#predict

Still gotta add some of the current single motor reservations back in for 2025.
But, your number isn't any more right than mine is wrong. Time will tell.

There probably is good reason Tesla is giving that period as valid for delivery. I just don't know enough facts on the matter to do better than to guess.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

No way 90% of reservations evaporate……..

You missed their point. If you order an expensive Cybertruck, you'll be ahead of all of the people who want a not-as-expensive Cybertruck.