Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

this is a pretty massive pricing move made yesterday, surprised more digital ink wasn’t spilled here about it.

The RWD is a very popular model internationally with its pricing far cheaper than the AWD models, will be interesting to see how heavily USA sales skew towards it. Some big ASP impacts possibly.

 

[TSLA Pilot]

I understand where you are coming from and I get the brand value of having a flagship model. On the surface it certainly seems like an unusual decision but keep in mind that the refreshed S/X are not exactly setting sales records in Europe and Asia. Part of that is the preference for smaller cars in the UK and Japan. I suspect that Tesla got market feedback that they were unlikely to match the previous numbers making it even less worth it.
Tesla opened reservations in RHD markets when they first revealed the new S/X and then canceled over a year later so it seems that they intended to produce the RHD at reveal time in 2021 but changed their minds later.

Edit: To get an idea of the scale of the model S sales collapse in Europe, Norway is at 87 YTD. The Taycan is at 146. So you have completion from 3/Y at the low end and Porsche/MB/BMW at the high end.
The prospect of selling 20-ish cars a quarter in the uk is probably why the RHD was cancelled

And, as an owner of several Palladium MS's, I must add that the stalkless joke of a yoke, with no easy way to use the horn (a glaring safety defect, frankly), would be a likely reason to see even less sales in a land of many roundabouts.

Bjorn just had a ride-along in the Highland Model 3 and joked with the test driver's absurd use of his right hand to signal his exit from a roundabout.

The best case would have been for Tesla to introduce a RHD MS/MX for these markets, see the lack of orders, and ASK, "WHY SO FEW ORDERS?" That might have given Elon some insights on how to improve the product, but he's stuck on cost-reduction-to-the-point-of-insanity so NO STALKS remains the case for the Palladium (and now the Highland). At least they put the horn button back where it belongs for the Highland so there is hope . . . .

Where is the Tesla Board of Directors when we need them?

 

[raffiniert]

I had a loaner Plaid MS for 3 days and have been used to doing roundabouts (MANY of them here in Switzerland) in about the first 3 of them. You ALWAYS have to signal "right" out of a roundabout so just memorizing to use the lower button (because stearing wheel is upside down at that moment) isn't THAT hard, right?

 

[JupiterMan]

And, as an owner of several Palladium MS's, I must add that the stalkless joke of a yoke, with no easy way to use the horn (a glaring safety defect, frankly), would be a likely reason to see even less sales in a land of many roundabouts.

Bjorn just had a ride-along in the Highland Model 3 and joked with the test driver's absurd use of his right hand to signal his exit from a roundabout.

The best case would have been for Tesla to introduce a RHD MS/MX for these markets, see the lack of orders, and ASK, "WHY SO FEW ORDERS?" That might have given Elon some insights on how to improve the product, but he's stuck on cost-reduction-to-the-point-of-insanity so NO STALKS remains the case for the Palladium (and now the Highland). At least they put the horn button back where it belongs for the Highland so there is hope . . . .

Where is the Tesla Board of Directors when we need them?

I very much suspect automatic blinkers/indicators will be coming soon.

The code is basically already there with FSDBeta, and would also help as a navigation tool, to tell those not using FSD when to turn, change lane etc. I can see us getting to a point where we rarely use indicators manually.

 

[jeewee3000]

I had a loaner Plaid MS for 3 days and have been used to doing roundabouts (MANY of them here in Switzerland) in about the first 3 of them. You ALWAYS have to signal "right" out of a roundabout so just memorizing to use the lower button (because stearing wheel is upside down at that moment) isn't THAT hard, right?

Not even that, actually. You are supposed to signal to the right BEFORE taking the exit out of the roundabout (i.e. when you're gradually turning left so the wheel/yoke is maybe ~45 degrees to the left or less) so just a regular press of the right indicator button is fine. I don't see how the wheel is ever upside down when indicating. You should use your indicators before doing any manoeuvre.

(except maaaaybe a 3point turn, but still, you can make sure your wheel is upright position when indicating)

 

[Max Plaid]

Not even that, actually. You are supposed to signal to the right BEFORE taking the exit out of the roundabout (i.e. when you're gradually turning left so the wheel/yoke is maybe ~45 degrees to the left or less) so just a regular press of the right indicator button is fine. I don't see how the wheel is ever upside down when indicating. You should use your indicators before doing any manoeuvre.

(except maaaaybe a 3point turn, but still, you can make sure your wheel is upright position when indicating)

Thing is, you're traversing the roundabout with the wheel turned left and should indicate BEFORE you start straightening up, no?

Anyway I think it's indeed temporary and based on a whole load of environmental inputs, it will indeed be updated to automatic signalling - the same when pulling out of a parallel-parked space, it's obvious what you're doing and which what you intend to go, the car should handle it

Obviously stalks won't work with a yoke anyway, you need the continuous arc of movement to be consistent for that

As for the horn, yes, this a problem, after nearly one year of ownership, I still have no idea where the horn button is on my yoke - neither the high-beam, because I don't use them very often, so no mechanical memory has built up

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Regardless, the stalkless design is terrible, especially for overseas markets, and RHD markets suffered as a result--no RHD MS/MX's. Tesla was saved by the fact that the M3/MY sales so overwhelm the MS/MX sales overall, but with Highland coming soon, well, let us all hope that the negatives are greatly outweighed by the positives with that refresh . . . .

The real question is can we keep these sorts of self-induced errors to a minimum going forward? And can poor choices be corrected quickly?

(And one must ask, "Just how much do stalks on the steering column actually cost for Pete's sake?!?")

 

[jerry33]

I honestly feel that Tesla should rapid flash the brake lights anytime the vehicle stops rapidly, ie stops above a threshold like ~0.75 G's or so. Since they're computers on wheels, safety features like that are trivial. Reducing the odds of a rear-end due to a sudden stop by enhanced visibility seems like a no brainer to me.

There are some cars that do the rapid flash. After a couple months you just ignore them as a bad noise.

 

[jerry33]

And, as an owner of several Palladium MS's, I must add that the stalkless joke of a yoke, with no easy way to use the horn (a glaring safety defect, frankly).

The horn is mostly there to give you something to do while waiting for a crash. I can't recall using it (except to test the camera save on honk) in the past couple of decades.

 

[heltok]

I get the feeling that Tesla has struggled to hire enough qualified workers in EU and US at all their factories. Maybe that's why ramping has been slow and no RHD S/X. Hopefully Optimus will soon start to replace 3 workers each and these workers can move around to other parts of their production and production will ramp. With Optimus costs will also go down and this can be passed on to the consumers again increasing the demand and killing the competition even more and more importantly improves how fast they can ramp.

 

[Stretch2727]

I get the feeling that Tesla has struggled to hire enough qualified workers in EU and US at all their factories. Maybe that's why ramping has been slow and no RHD S/X. Hopefully Optimus will soon start to replace 3 workers each and these workers can move around to other parts of their production and production will ramp. With Optimus costs will also go down and this can be passed on to the consumers again increasing the demand and killing the competition even more and more importantly improves how fast they can ramp.

The reason for no RHD is likely the tooling cost and engineering resources, not line workers.

In the end it's a prioritization of capital (Both Human and $$) It will cost X to do this and we will gain Y. There were other projects that gave more return. Possibly focusing on the low cost design or putting more resources on the 4680 batteries.

 

[cliff harris]

As an investor, its worrying that we can just dismiss the RHD S/X decision as 'their sales would be really bad because porsche/mercedes competition etc'. I thought we all agreed Tesla makes the best EVs out there? If Tesla cannot outsell the taycan in the UK, with a lower price, faster performance and FSD and supercharger network, then thats worrying.

UK sales year to date:
Jaguar 8,000
Mercedes 52,000
Porsche 15,000
(Tesla 33,000)

Thats quite a big market that the S/X could dominate if Tesla tried, all high-end models with fat margins, and all owned by people with off-street home charging opportunity and high salaries. High FSD take rate potential too!

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

The reason for no RHD is likely the tooling cost and engineering resources, not line workers.

In the end it's a prioritization of capital (Both Human and $$) It will cost X to do this and we will gain Y. There were other projects that gave more return. Possibly focusing on the low cost design or putting more resources on the 4680 batteries.

Forget the UK. 60 countries and 25 % of global car sales volume is RHD. It is a mean decision to deprive this lot of the joys of Plaid. Just sayin..

 

[Huskyf]

I honestly feel that Tesla should rapid flash the brake lights anytime the vehicle stops rapidly, ie stops above a threshold like ~0.75 G's or so. Since they're computers on wheels, safety features like that are trivial. Reducing the odds of a rear-end due to a sudden stop by enhanced visibility seems like a no brainer to me.

it's work if I stop rapidly on my model S75D since last year

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

this is a pretty massive pricing move made yesterday, surprised more digital ink wasn’t spilled here about it.

The RWD is a very popular model internationally with its pricing far cheaper than the AWD models, will be interesting to see how heavily USA sales skew towards it. Some big ASP impacts possibly.

View attachment 979514

I expect it to draw sales rather than lower ASP. AWD is popular, and LR not only has more range, but is faster and charges faster.
But could lose some ASP for multi-EV households who might otherwise have been forced to buy the LR.

 

[mongo]

I honestly feel that Tesla should rapid flash the brake lights anytime the vehicle stops rapidly, ie stops above a threshold like ~0.75 G's or so. Since they're computers on wheels, safety features like that are trivial. Reducing the odds of a rear-end due to a sudden stop by enhanced visibility seems like a no brainer to me.

That's not legal under FMVSS 108. It is also nausea inducing (and non compliant) in the wild as a 3rd party add on.

20288.ztv | NHTSA

 

[Usain]

You North Americans live in a bubble. I have been driving the slowest Tesla in the world for the last 9 months (MY RWD @ 6.9 seconds 0-100kmph)

Here's some context to show how Tesla is willing to diminish its reputation for making super-quick cars.

My 2017 Bolt is quicker than the slowest 2023 Model Y. The Bolt does 0 to 60 in 6.5 seconds.

Of course, you get a much better overall car with the Model Y. But we are entering an era where Tesla isn't always the quickest and doesn't always have the longest range.

 

[Usain]

Overappreciated: Helping avert climate change.

Helping avert climate change can never be over appreciated. Climate is everything.

 

[NicoV]

The horn is mostly there to give you something to do while waiting for a crash. I can't recall using it (except to test the camera save on honk) in the past couple of decades.

Exactly! I always wondered about drivers who react by honking first, and only slow down when that doesn’t seem to work. It’s so much easier and relaxing to just slow down in the first place.

 

[CaliBear1]

There is a really good reason for the clutch and why the Semi has but the passenger vehicles don't

The two climb motors have a significantly higher gear ratio, close to double the cruising motor, there is a whole another stage to them. The climb motors are likely reaching 20k rpm under 100 mph, we can calculate that, been meaning to do that for a while, just need to find a bit of time

View attachment 979237

On a Model S/X, you will only get to 20k rpm at over 200 mph. The problem is that rpm related losses (core losses) grows somewhere between to the square to the cube of rpm, so if your motor is off but running at close to 20k rpm with you just cruising it can be a significant power hog, on top of you also having to spend energy to cool it

Here is an example from some real data from real motors, these are palm sized ones weighting around 1 kg and capable of 3 to 5 hp, so power density is comparable to the motors Tesla makes, but the principle is the same, it becomes a heater just by being off and spun fast

View attachment 979240

Another way to look at it is that when you need the power, you need to spin a motor really fast because that is where it's most efficient and can make the most power, but spinning it really fast when little power is needed, such as cruising on flat, it's really inefficient

A Semi needs around 80 kW for cruising of flat road fully loaded, a single motor spinning at half of the 20k rpm limit can easily do that all day long and efficiently

A few more plots of one of the motors from the graph above, first one is an efficiency map and second is a power output map, ignore all the white labels and lines, not relevant

Let's say we need low power for cruising at just 640 W, if we spin the motor at 11000 rpm, we will operate at 75% efficiency and have 160 W of waste heat, or we can operate at 2500 rpm at 90%+ efficiency and have just 64 W of waste heat

Now for the other scenario, climbing a big hill and we need 2.5 kW of power, at 2500 rpm this would be 80% efficiency and 500 W of waste heat, that motor would cook in no time, but at 11000 rpm we operate at 92% efficiency and just 200 W of waste heat, way more manageable

View attachment 979241
View attachment 979242

Now circling back to why the passenger cars doesn't need the axle clutch, the motor are always operating at slow rpm at normal driving speeds, such as the power lost is so low that it doesn't warrant the complexity added

The Semi is pushing the motors to it's limit, from the above about needing high rpm for high power, in my opinion the two acceleration motors are putting significantly more power each than the cruise motor, if we go from the gear ratios and 1500 hp Dan gave us, I would say each climb motor does close to 600 hp while the cruise motor are on the high 300s hp

Priceless! This is exactly why I religiously visit this site. Such deep dives! It's positive for Tesla Semi, right?