Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tim S]

Haven't seen this posted yet (from Teslarati) ... Tesla Powerwall covers its monthly payment after VPP events

 

[AudubonB]

re Suitability of the Salton Sea:

I’m responding to this from Seward, where I just spent an hour strolling the boat harbor docks.
It is almost impossible here to find a commercial boat - glacier/whale watching, or fishing - that is not aluminum. And motorized boats of all types have had copper wiring for their electrical cables for over a century - at least as exposed as the ones running to/from small boat’s outboards.
Sacrificial zinc anodes perform most of the protection; there are also other means.

Next question, please?

 

[MC3OZ]

re Suitability of the Salton Sea:

I’m responding to this from Seward, where I just spent an hour strolling the boat harbor docks.
It is almost impossible here to find a commercial boat - glacier/whale watching, or fishing - that is not aluminum. And motorized boats of all types have had copper wiring for their electrical cables for over a century - at least as exposed as the ones running to/from small boat’s outboards.
Sacrificial zinc anodes perform most of the protection, there are many other means.

Next question, please?

I wonder how different the Salton Sea is to the Dead Sea, where foolish tourists regularly float and cake themselves in the local mud,.

This could be the difference:-

The water is full of salts, selenium, and fertilizers (mainly nitrates).

Not much farming in recent times near the Dead Sea.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I wonder how different the Salton Sea is to the Dead Sea, where foolish tourists regularly float and cake themselves in the local mud,.

This could be the difference:-


Not much farming in recent times near the Dead Sea.

No, but they harvest a heck of a lot of Potash from the Dead Sea. Kazakhstan is super jelly.

 

[StealthP3D]

That would be true if the people who have recently ordered their vehicles were taking delivery this quarter, but with very few exceptions they'll be taking delivery in future quarters. Most of the folks taking delivery this quarter paid lower prices, so were they not contributing to gross margins either?

May be simple math, but without taking time into consideration.

Look, I don't want to belabor this obvious point, but the fact is, an order at a lower price displaces orders at higher prices and lowers gross margins. it's not rocket science or a slam on the buyer who is getting a lower price. If I wanted the car, even as a fan and shareholder of TSLA, I would pat myself on the back for ordering early enough to get the discount compared to more recent orders.

But financial metrics don't care who the buyer is, only how much revenue the sale brought in. We are talking miniscule fractions of a percent of gross margin here so it's not a big deal but facts are facts. Deal with it. Don't deny basic facts about corporate accounting by claiming sales that displace higher margin sales increase gross margins.

 

[Thekiwi]

FYI: new typhoon (Muifa) bearing down on Shanghai in about 48 hours. Potential for a small disruption perhaps if it maintains course.

 

[wipster]

Look, I don't want to belabor this obvious point, but the fact is, an order at a lower price displaces orders at higher prices and lowers gross margins. it's not rocket science or a slam on the buyer who is getting a lower price. If I wanted the car, even as a fan and shareholder of TSLA, I would pat myself on the back for ordering early enough to get the discount compared to more recent orders.

But financial metrics don't care who the buyer is, only how much revenue the sale brought in. We are talking miniscule fractions of a percent of gross margin here so it's not a big deal but facts are facts. Deal with it. Don't deny basic facts about corporate accounting by claiming sales that displace higher margin sales increase gross margins.

Since when did ordering a car 13 months prior to taking delivery displace a higher margin sale? When he ordered the car, the price was cheaper, and revenue was not recognized until he took delivery of the car! Just like most everyone who orders a higher priced Tesla now won't have the revenue recognized until they take delivery in some future quarter. If the higher priced car were available today, you might have a point, but they're not and you don't.

 

[Singuy]

Look, I don't want to belabor this obvious point, but the fact is, an order at a lower price displaces orders at higher prices and lowers gross margins. it's not rocket science or a slam on the buyer who is getting a lower price. If I wanted the car, even as a fan and shareholder of TSLA, I would pat myself on the back for ordering early enough to get the discount compared to more recent orders.

But financial metrics don't care who the buyer is, only how much revenue the sale brought in. We are talking miniscule fractions of a percent of gross margin here so it's not a big deal but facts are facts. Deal with it. Don't deny basic facts about corporate accounting by claiming sales that displace higher margin sales increase gross margins.

Didn't Zach say the price increase is predictive vs retroactive? So if Tesla predicted the price of raw material/suppliers correctly, margins will stay the same no matter when you order and take delivery the car.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Since when did ordering a car 13 months prior to taking delivery displace a higher margin sale? When he ordered the car, the price was cheaper, and revenue was not recognized until he took delivery of the car! Just like most everyone who orders a higher priced Tesla won't have the revenue recognized until they take delivery in some future quarter. If the higher priced car were available today, you might have a point, but they're not and you don't.

Yeah, I'm generally in agreement with 90%+ of what Stealth has to say here, but raining on the parade of somebody's Tesla purchase is just poor form. You're better than that, man.

 

[Singuy]

Guess we are in a simulation. Was checking my car for the newest software update and noticed this for my odometer. Guess it's meant to be.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Guess we are in a simulation. Was checking my car for the newest software update and noticed this for my odometer. Guess it's meant to be.

View attachment 851597

I would take that as a sign. A super bullish sign.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

A write-up about the event near Gigafactory Berlin. In German, but google translate is pretty good now.

The stands on the left side of the hall were dedicated to further expansion, which was already a public topic in May with an application for a development plan for a site directly east of the Tesla factory . A vote on the initiation of the necessary procedure was initially postponed by the municipality of Grünheide, reportedly because a majority was unsure. There was still a need for voting, it said on Sunday.

Representatives of the municipality also use the opportunity to inquire directly at the source about further projects. For the first time, Tesla publicly presented a new overall plan for its German gigafactory. It is shown that the previous 300 hectares would not be sufficient to accommodate all the planned additional facilities. Because next to the existing property, a kind of logistics center is to be built on another 100 hectares (see photo above). Trains should both bring material and pick up finished electric cars, which Tesla says would mean significantly less CO2 emissions. In addition, many more parts are now to be kept in stock on site because the logistics concept of "just in time" delivery has become unsafe due to ongoing supply chain disruptions.

Tesla will wachsen: Pläne für deutsche Fabrik mit Schienen-Logistik und Lager präsentiert

Bei einem Info-Tag für die lokale Bevölkerung hat Tesla weitere Pläne für seine deutsche Gigafactory vorgestellt, denn sie soll starl wachsen

teslamag.de

 

[Bet TSLA]

From looking at TeslaFi, the pending 2022.20.15 (FSD Beta 12.69.2) installations are close to the total number there that have FSD Beta. One of my two FSD Beta cars got the update installed an hour or so ago (from 10.12.2). I'll give it a try in the morning.

From long experience I am expecting little to no net improvement, meaning some things will get better and some things will get worse.

 

[jw934]

Electrek reported news on end of quarter delivery.

Quoting Fred:

”
Tesla is short on staff in sales to rectify the situation since it sent a decent number of employees to work on service.

. . . Tesla is not pushing as much for end-of-quarter delivery waves . . .”

To clarify- deliveries are handled by the sales dept, and Tesla is moving some untrained sales staff moved a few weeks ago from sales to service back into sales for the end of quarter deliveries.

 

[mongo]

Look, I don't want to belabor this obvious point, but the fact is, an order at a lower price displaces orders at higher prices and lowers gross margins.

You mean the point only you are talking about?
Everyone who buys contributes. Not every purchase is higher than the final gross margin percentage. Read the OP as gross profit or revenue if that helps understand the dissonance in viewpoints.

Spoiler: More words (plus South Park)

Don't deny basic facts about corporate accounting by claiming sales that displace higher margin sales increase gross margins.

Those who pay a higher price for the same product, in the same quarter contribute more to that metric.

Our contribution to Q3 gross margins:

Most of the folks taking delivery this quarter paid lower prices, so were they not contributing to gross margins either?

He's contributing every bit as much as anyone else who got their Tesla this quarter. The people who are on the waiting list will contribute to the gross margins in the quarter in which they receive their vehicles as well.

No one, other than you, was debating whether a larger numerator increases a fraction. Nor was anyone else debating magnitude, nor was @redan making any claim to boosting gross margin.
However, given they were replying to a Model X Plaid delivery post, it is quite likely they were referring to the white X in the photo. Those tend to have higher margin than a 3 or Y (and more for Q3 than the 12 unsold Plaids sitting in new inventory are currently). So it may juice the numbers, but that was never the point.

Their purchase adds to the numerator of gross sales and the vehicle's sale adds to the denominator of cost. Thus, their contribution, regardless of whether it was a higher or lower percentage than the pre-sum value.
But no one else cares if someone didn't buy a vehicle other than a Plaid X with 22" wheels, multicoat paint, and FSD with a delivery charge at today's prices.

Spoiler: Obligatory South Park clip

 

[2daMoon]

Did anyone else notice a busload of Spartans beginning to unload in the parking lot outside the exchange?

 

[JRP3]

Yeah, I'm generally in agreement with 90%+ of what Stealth has to say here, but raining on the parade of somebody's Tesla purchase is just poor form. You're better than that, man.

Buy a Plaid or it doesn't count.

 

[Drezil]

Has noone posted the >300 yet? Or have i just not noticed it? ...

 

[2daMoon]

Has noone posted the >300 yet? Or have i just not noticed it? ...

So, you did notice the busload of Spartans?

(a subtle attempt at speaking in code to avoid jinxing it...)

 

[Knightshade]

Which makes me wonder, are their no journalists ethics or standards or even a law, that gives the right to privacy for a company for a closed door meeting between the management and its employees? The same privacy we all expect for our bedrooms?

Of course even if such standards exists, expecting that from bottom feeders like Lora or Russ is just too much.

In the majority of US states (38 out of 50 last I knew) there is no "right to privacy" regarding a conversation you're part of (that is- any person part of it can legally record it without the consent of anyone else involved)- even in a bedroom (and actually for in person ones, even more states only require 1 person consent, those 12 that require two party often only do so for NOT in person convos)

Interesting, Nevada is in that boat (in person requires 1 party consent, on the phone requires 2 party)- but that doesn't restrict you if you're outside NV, have the right to be on the call, and are recording-- also, business calls are often recorded by default (with an announcement at the start that it will be recorded) in which case there's nothing stopping you from ALSO recording it yourself.