Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Likewise, not to diminish or disrespect anyone's support of Tesla, but gross margin is a specific financial metric and the claim was the delivery increased that metric. Those who pay a higher price for the same product, in the same quarter contribute more to that metric. Tesla is production constrained, not demand constrained, so a sale at the lower prices of 13 months ago actually does reduce gross margins slightly vs. the same car going to a more recent order at a higher price. Simple math. Will the margins be higher with that particular sale or without it? The answer is, without it.

Not so, their statement was that they contributed to Q3 gross margin, not that they increased it.

Our contribution to Q3 gross margins:

You are arguing against your interpretation.

I like a good deal as much as the next guy, but I wouldn't exactly call it a "contribution to Q3 gross margins" when you are paying the low price from 13 months ago and there is a waiting list for the same car composed of current buyers at much higher margins.

Whether their contribution is the highest it could be is irrelevant. Unless Tesla is selling old orders at a loss (they're not), redan's purchase contributed to positive gross margins. Technically, even at a loss it would still be contributing to the Q3 number.

Edited for tone.

 

[Gigapress]

In the last two years there has been so much bickering about politics, and anger and fear about the effect on Tesla's business and stock price.

• Elon spouting off on earnings call about "fascist" stay-at-home order and tells California authorities to "give people back their goddamn freedom", getting into fights with local politicians, and moving headquarters and his residency to Texas.
• National controversy surrounding a certain abortion law enacted in Texas last September
• Tesla being conspicuously excluded from White House EV Summit
• Biden Admin awkwardly avoiding even uttering the word "Tesla"
• Elon arguing with prominent members of the more left portion Democratic Party
• Biden "You led and it matters" praise of Mary Barra's heroic charge for electrification of "the entire auto industry"
• NHTSA Missy Cummings appointment, NHTSA probes into Tesla self-driving development, concerns about Biden Administration banning FSD Beta or hampering progress
• Union favoritism in Build Back Better bill proposal for EV tax incentives
• Twitter acquisition drama, free speech debates, speculation and outrage about Elon allegedly trying to allow Trump to return to the platform

I complained about the complaining and I predicted none of this would have much net impact. Shockingly, this seems to have come true. In the time since, we've seen:

• Tesla's car market share in California has risen to 11%, second only to Toyota (for now), and Model Y and 3 have become the #1 and #2 top-selling vehicles of any kind in the state. Model 3 in 1H22 beat the third-place Toyota RAV4 by 23%!
• Texas has not a had mass exodus of suitable workforce and as such, Tesla, SpaceX and Boring development deep in the heart of Texas is seemingly progressing at warp speed with no problems.
• Americans and people all over the world are still ordering Tesla cars and energy products, prices keep rising and barely any progress is being made keeping up with order backlogs.
• Starlink played a critical role in saving Ukraine from communications catastrophe, earning well-deserved international praise for Elon Musk and SpaceX.
• NHTSA has continued to allow unfettered development of FSD Beta, save for the ongoing industry-wide requirement to report accidents involving advanced driver assistance systems. The FAA and FCC haven't really interfered unfairly with SpaceX either.
• The version of US clean vehicle tax credit that was actually enacted benefits Tesla massively, and the union favoritism was deleted. The previous version had a limit of 200k vehicles per company after which the credit started to phase out. This time, the government decided to eliminate the cap despite the fact that Tesla sells twice as many clean vehicles in America than all other companies put together and would thus claim the majority of the credit benefit.

I'm not injecting my opinions about these things in this post, just pointing out that despite all that stuff that people were worried about, ultimately Tesla has posted great results in the last two years including record profits that have continued to surprise Wall Street analysts over and over again, and also the Biden Admin hasn't actually done much to hurt Tesla in terms of what matters most: legislation and regulation by federal agencies. Starting especially in Q3 and Q4 of this year, the explosive earnings growth will speak for itself and I don't think there's much that can keep the stock price tamped down, not even media headlines. Money on the bottom line speaks louder than anything else.

 

[Singuy]

In the last two years there has been so much bickering about politics, and anger and fear about the effect on Tesla's business and stock price.

• Elon spouting off on earnings call about "fascist" stay-at-home order and tells California authorities to "give people back their goddamn freedom", getting into fights with local politicians, and moving headquarters and his residency to Texas.
• National controversy surrounding a certain abortion law enacted in Texas last September
• Tesla being conspicuously excluded from White House EV Summit
• Biden Admin awkwardly avoiding even uttering the word "Tesla"
• Elon arguing with prominent members of the more left portion Democratic Party
• Biden "You led and it matters" praise of Mary Barra's heroic charge for electrification of "the entire auto industry"
• NHTSA Missy Cummings appointment, NHTSA probes into Tesla self-driving development, concerns about Biden Administration banning FSD Beta or hampering progress
• Union favoritism in Build Back Better bill proposal for EV tax incentives
• Twitter acquisition drama, free speech debates, speculation and outrage about Elon allegedly trying to allow Trump to return to the platform

I complained about the complaining and I predicted none of this would have much net impact. Shockingly, this seems to have come true. In the time since, we've seen:

• Tesla's car market share in California has risen to 11%, second only to Toyota (for now), and Model Y and 3 have become the #1 and #2 top-selling vehicles of any kind in the state. Model 3 in 1H22 beat the third-place Toyota RAV4 by 23%!
• Texas has not a had mass exodus of suitable workforce and as such, Tesla, SpaceX and Boring development deep in the heart of Texas is seemingly progressing at warp speed with no problems.
• Americans and people all over the world are still ordering Tesla cars and energy products, prices keep rising and barely any progress is being made keeping up with order backlogs.
• Starlink played a critical role in saving Ukraine from communications catastrophe, earning well-deserved international praise for Elon Musk and SpaceX.
• NHTSA has continued to allow unfettered development of FSD Beta, save for the ongoing industry-wide requirement to report accidents involving advanced driver assistance systems. The FAA and FCC haven't really interfered unfairly with SpaceX either.
• The version of US clean vehicle tax credit that was actually enacted benefits Tesla massively, and the union favoritism was deleted. The previous version had a limit of 200k vehicles per company after which the credit started to phase out. This time, the government decided to eliminate the cap despite the fact that Tesla sells twice as many clean vehicles in America than all other companies put together and would thus claim the majority of the credit benefit.

I'm not injecting my opinions about these things in this post, just pointing out that despite all that stuff that people were worried about, ultimately Tesla has posted great results in the last two years including record profits that have continued to surprise Wall Street analysts over and over again, and also the Biden Admin hasn't actually done much to hurt Tesla in terms of what matters most: legislation and regulation by federal agencies. Starting especially in Q3 and Q4 of this year, the explosive earnings growth will speak for itself and I don't think there's much that can keep the stock price tamped down, not even media headlines. Money on the bottom line speaks louder than anything else.

Tho no doubt Tesla is growing despite all the noise, you cannot discount that some of this stuff have damaged Tesla's brand value.

One such example is that after the whole airline stewardess hit piece, Hertz no longer show any version of their online ad with Tesla cars, just the Polestar cars. The switch literally went live on the day off and I thought Hertz will be alternating but still have yet to see them rotating Teslas back.

If anyone still sees Hertz's online ad with Tesla cars, let me know. Maybe it's just a coincidence.

 

[Gigapress]

Tho no doubt Tesla is growing despite all the noise, you cannot discount that some of this stuff have damaged Tesla's brand value.

One such example is that after the whole airline stewardess hit piece, Hertz no longer show any version of their online ad with Tesla cars, just the Polestar cars. The switch literally went live on the day off and I thought Hertz will be alternating but still have yet to see them rotating Teslas back.

If anyone still sees Hertz's online ad with Tesla cars, let me know. Maybe it's just a coincidence.

Yeah, it may have. I'm just saying the ratio of worrying and posting about it was way out of proportion to its actual impact on the business. The numbers don't lie and overall demand for Tesla's products and pace of Tesla's progress are both at all time highs.

The Hertz ads are still up on their Youtube channel. I don't know if they took them down at some point but as of today the entire front page of their channel is covered in ads from the Tom Brady "Let's Go!" ad campaign including the Tesla ads.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Some info coming in from the Citizens Event at Giga Berlin:

Output of the Cell Facility will be 16 cells per second. 4680

So that's 50 GWh/yr 4680 cell production at Giga Berlin @ 99% uptime and 0% rejects.

Given an avg 82 KWh/pack, that's enough for the nameplate capacity of 500K/yr Model Y capacity from that factory (including rejects) if uptime averages just 82% (ie:75 KWh avg pack size requires just 75% uptime/yield).

Also that's 500K/yr Model Y capacity without any 3rd-Party 2170 cells. I expect Giga Berlin will prioritized building TE products like Powerwall, then prioritize delivery to VPP plan participants. I also expect the next Auto product built at Giga Berlin to use LFP packs (still holding out hope for a Model 2/Z Eurocar).

Cheers!

 

[Singuy]

Yeah, it may have. I'm just saying the ratio of worrying and posting about it was way out of proportion to its actual impact on the business. The numbers don't lie and overall demand for Tesla's products and pace of Tesla's progress are both at all time highs.

The Hertz ads are still up on their Youtube channel. I don't know if they took them down at some point but as of today the entire front page of their channel is covered in ads from the Tom Brady "Let's Go!" ad campaign including the Tesla ads.

View attachment 851526

I'm not saying the original was deleted, but Hertz chose the polestar version for youtube to advertise on the day of that hit piece. It was first thing I noticed and didn't think much of it. Now it has been a few months and I still don't see the Tesla version.

 

[Paul_SF]

Money on the bottom line speaks louder than anything else.

At the end of the day this will and always been the case. Thank you for all your work!

 

[Artful Dodger]

0.0% chance Tesla is working on a VR headset. This is like the rumors they were making a phone.

However, this is Elon, and we can expect him to develop all the tools & tech that humans will need on a Martian colony. There's precidence for Tesla being involved in that process:

Tesla Cybertruck News and Reviews | InsideEVs

Get the latest on new Tesla Cybertruck models including first drives, in-depth reviews, concept car photos, new features, recalls and more.

insideevs.com

A better question might be, "is there room to disrupt the VR Headset market?" Certainly, if this is done in conjunction with Neuralink technology. Just 2 days ago, we learned this:

Austin-area is gaining Neuralink, another company from Elon Musk

The site plans that were filed with Travis County outline that it will be located on Caldwell Lane off of Texas 71, which is near the Colorado River.

www.kvue.com

It seems to me that platoons of mostly-autonomous 'bots, supervised remotely via VR, will form a highly effective team (whether operating on Earth, or in Mars orbit via AriesLink).

Think "Long-Game" like operating autonomus rocket fuel depots on Titan. This process is headed to Proxima Centari in a few hundred years, and to the entire Milky Way in a million years.

Interstellar Highway System | Cool Worlds on Youtube​

Cheers!

 

[MC3OZ]

AI Day September 30th now less than 3 weeks away:- Tesla AI day

 

[SmokyPeat]

I'm not saying the original was deleted, but Hertz chose the polestar version for youtube to advertise on the day of that hit piece. It was first thing I noticed and didn't think much of it. Now it has been a few months and I still don't see the Tesla version.

I just Googled "Hertz EV" and clicked on the link to the first Hertz ad that popped up. The page has a full screen image of a Tesla with a sub-heading that simply says "Tesla". I don't think they're trying to distance themselves from Tesla in any way, shape, or form.

 

[Prunesquallor]

There were a number of contributing factors that led to the meltdown of the graphite moderated Chernobyl reactor- design flaws, errors in the operating manuals, and operator error. There is an excellent dramatic series (appropriately titled Chernobyl) depicting the events leading up to, during, and after the meltdown available to watch on Amazon prime for anyone interested in that disaster. Complete with chilling soundtrack. Gigawatts are a measure of energy, not radioactivity, btw.

That was a great min-series.

 

[kanweg]

Interesting YT video featuring Alexandra Merz (@TeslaBoomerMama) who discusses credit ratings and the rating agencies (plus ESG in the middle). She clearly isn’t done with them yet, thinks they abuse their power and at the very end reveals what steps she is going to take next.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Tho no doubt Tesla is growing despite all the noise, you cannot discount that some of this stuff have damaged Tesla's brand value.

One such example is that after the whole airline stewardess hit piece, Hertz no longer show any version of their online ad with Tesla cars, just the Polestar cars. The switch literally went live on the day off and I thought Hertz will be alternating but still have yet to see them rotating Teslas back.

If anyone still sees Hertz's online ad with Tesla cars, let me know. Maybe it's just a coincidence.

First Google hit I pulled up.

 

[KBF]

Way back Elon talked about using EV's as battery backups, or for helping buffer the grid. Is California the only place where this has actually happened (there was an article recently, maybe someone can refresh my memory)?

I'm building a Net Zero home on Vancouver Island next year, hopefully getting a Powerwall to run the solar through (availability seems tricky in Canada). But it seems to me that my X (and future CT) would add a lot of emergency storage in case of power outages...

Is there any way for our EV's to supplement a Powerwall yet, or is that going to be an undelivered idea? Or is this simply unworkable?

And how advanced is the current California 'grid stabilization' thing? Is it just in a test stage? Are any non-Tesla EV's capable? It seems to me that it theoretically could be a valuable feature (another competitive advantage), but I haven't heard a lot of talk about it from Tesla (maybe I've just missed it in the last few years... Apart from that one very recent example)

 

[2daMoon]

It seems I may have guessed right some time back about the potential for a Boring Company tunnel under the river between Giga-Texas and the recently acquired Horse Ranch LLC property.

To me it seemed like a good place for a logistics lot. Joe Tegtmeyer leans more toward it being access for use as a park.
Either way, it will be very cool to see the latest Boring Co. equipment making short work of this project.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

USD 265 per hour?? Didn't know you need a top university education to replace parts in a Volt.

USD 265 per hour?? Didn't know you need a top university education law degree to replace parts in a Volt.

FTFY

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

I’m skeptical of any Tesla VR / metaverse discussion based on Elon’s comments in the Babylon Bee interview last December

starting at 33:18

 

[thesmokingman]

I’m skeptical of any Tesla VR / metaverse discussion based on Elon’s comments in the Babylon Bee interview last December

starting at 33:18

Lmao, the bit about Batman...

Elon, "Squirrel man!" "I'll be Irony Man..."

 

[Electroman]

Yeah, it may have. I'm just saying the ratio of worrying and posting about it was way out of proportion to its actual impact on the business. The numbers don't lie and overall demand for Tesla's products and pace of Tesla's progress are both at all time highs.

The Hertz ads are still up on their Youtube channel. I don't know if they took them down at some point but as of today the entire front page of their channel is covered in ads from the Tom Brady "Let's Go!" ad campaign including the Tesla ads.

View attachment 851526

A good reason why you may not be seeing Hertz-Tesla ads on TV the past few months, could be primarily due to the fact that Hertz's Tesla rentals are all booked way in advance. So there is no reason to advertise them anymore when their rental demand is much more than their capacity (hmm.. where have you heard this before?).

The set of people who rent cars and has any interest in EVs everyone of them know that Hertz rents Tesla. On the other hand I think hardly anyone is aware that Hertz rents Polestar EV too. Heck I didn't know that until I read your post.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Even gas exporters want off gas. Egypt is looking to add tons of battery storage so even more tons of renewables can be added.

What we need to move past is these "pilot program" phases in all these grand plans. Supply is obviously an issue on the storage side, but we need to be moving faster. Bigger.

EBRD to help fund transition from gas to wind power in Egypt

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) will help finance the decommissioning of 5GW of inefficient gas-fired power plants in Egypt from 2023 while pledging up to $1 billion for renewables, its regional director said on Sunday.

www.reuters.com