Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ipcress]

It's not as if he's a young person who's personality will suddenly be influenced by new found fame, I think he was genuinely surprised by all the attention and expressed that in the video. He's spent most of his life working in relative obscurity and suddenly people are swarming to talk to him everywhere he goes. He's always made some mistakes in his analysis of Tesla but overall he's usually more right than wrong.

And let’s not forget the early importance of his being an auto industry insider convert to Tesla. He brought a lot of people with him. His tear downs have been of incalculable value to the tesla community, and the EV cause. Is he right about everything? Of course not, and neither is Elon. Pretty tough crowd here today. I’m thrilled Sandy’s doing what he’s doing , and have learned a sugar load from him and people like Jordan Ghisege. If he’s celebrated, after 50 years in the trenches, it’s through hard, unflashy work and straightforward talk.

 

[jerry33]

EPA numbers are SELF REPORTED by SELF TESTING.

I explain the 4680 numbers as Tesla sandbagging the new SR Y so as not to Osbourne the existing 2170 based cars.

This is correct. The numbers can be reported lower than are actually achieved, but not higher. (And presumably it's possible to game the numbers to achieve higher results, but if caught no one will ever trust your ratings again.)

 

[advocate8]

I wouldn't be so certain. In my experience, once the market has a widely held expectation, the market loves to blow it up.

Said another way, if the market largely expects bad Q2 numbers will crater the stock and create a buying opportunity, bad numbers would be more likely to kick off a powerful rally. I've seen that dynamic play out time and time again.

Of course, we don't know what the market expectations going into Q2 results will be yet, so we will have to wait and see.

I think I meant broadly, rather than day-of. But... point taken, and a good one.

 

[Ogre]

And let’s not forget the early importance of his being an auto industry insider convert to Tesla. He brought a lot of people with him. His tear downs have been of incalculable value to the tesla community, and the EV cause. Is he right about everything? Of course not, and neither is Elon. Pretty tough crowd here today. I’m thrilled Sandy’s doing what he’s doing , and have learned a sugar load from him and people like Jordan Ghisege. If he’s celebrated, after 50 years in the trenches, it’s through hard, unflashy work and straightforward talk.

Munro has bored us with a lot of other boring rants. It’s not as if he stopped saying interesting things, you just have to be willing to wade through a bit of junk to find it. The arrow keys or the +15s buttons do wonders for his videos.

What Munro thinks is video worthy and interesting… doesn’t necessarily mesh with what we do. I just skip the boring bits and focus on the interesting parts on his videos.

 

[Accident]

https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/u2hbqo

 

[2daMoon]

Munro has been candid about his disappointment over the years decades in showing the legacy OEMs the way and them not taking the ball and running with it. He is an unsung hero of sorts. Had any OEM picked up on his shared wisdom and carefully considered suggestions earlier the world would be better for it.

He's been right more often than not, and, I'd say is long overdue for this sort of recognition. His celebrity status means more to him because of this. More than it would mean to the usual Johnny-come-lately you-tube channel experiencing sudden success.

Let him bask in it. We can hold his feet to the fire easy enough if this affects his evaluation of technology going forward.

 

[samppa]

Soo.. about the Model Y SR (or will it be called just "Model Y" like the 3 is now?)
with claimed to have 4680 cells, and not LFP. Model 3 SR+ and now model 3 have been lfp packs in europe for a couple years now.

My takeaway from this: the 4680 production is still lagging behind, they are ramping but it's not quite there yet. So Tesla can make more cars when they use them in SR packs.

Situation sounds similar to Lemur.

 

[JRP3]

We don't know which it is right now, simple as that. But one solution to all these requirements is that Tesla may have decided to cool the cells both from the sides and from the endplates.

Only if you ignore all the available evidence proving there is no end cooling. Not only are there no cooling manifolds on the bottom there are also gaps that can be seen on the circular cell end caps which would create poor heat conductivity. There are also insulating sheets on the bottom of the cells.

Mongo already covered this in the engineering thread

How so?
Tabless cuts electrical path and self heating way down while improving the thermal path. Cooling on the sides is more protected and energy efficient than bottom cooling which has losses to the environment and increased risk of damage. Plus height increase and complexity of flow channels.
Implementation wise, the heat/ electrical path is the circumference on the side at the bottom and the center button on the top. The bottom is also the vent and not a uniform suface to mate to along with need for a gas escape path.
Before bottom cap install:
View attachment 792415

Spacer/ insulation/ vent path:
View attachment 792418

 

[Todd Burch]

One potential positive side effect for the factory shutdown in Shanghai (silver lining?):

This may cause the wait list for orders to grow so large that Tesla increases prices further on Shanghai-made cars (increasing margin) just to keep the wait list to a reasonable length.

 

[JRP3]

Montana Skeptic crawled out of the sewer on SA to try and maximize the FUD on the Shanghai shutdown

 

[wipster]

Now if the SP will just stay at this level, or go higher, that will make me a happy boy... at least for today.

 

[2daMoon]

Now if the SP will just stay at this level, or go higher, that will make me a happy boy... at least for today.

No!

What you meant to say is how upset you are that the promised sale seems to be over sooner than expected.

There will be NO allusions to things like "happiness" until after a new ATH has been reached.

Now, go stand in the corner for ten minutes and think about what you've done.

 

[The Accountant]

I reviewed your linked forecasts from January and I’m wondering if you’re still forecasting 2022 M3/Y avg price of $50k and S/X $96k, representing zero 3/Y price increase from what we had in Q4 2021 and then gradually declining price into 2023 and beyond. These numbers are mathematically impossible because they’re outside the low end of Tesla’s price range. Unless prices plummet in the next few months and Berlin in 2022 produces almost none of those €70 Ys for the European & Mediterranean market.

US prices have been pretty close to global averages. Tesla minimum price in America for 3/Y is now $47k with everything else $56k+, and for S/X it is $100k with everything else $115k+. Of course, many people get more expensive trims and add options for FSD / paint / wheels / interior / hitch / extra seats. Also we’ll see more Y in the mix this year, which is now $60k minimum.

(I’ll put out my more detailed analysis on ASPs and revenue today as part of my promised demonstration of how I got to outrageous 2023 earnings on the order of $100B.)

The backlog lag before these prices hit will keep prices behind the times, but when averaging across 2022 that effect is likely canceled out by the trend of prices continuing to increase with no end in sight.

View attachment 793205
View attachment 793204
Current US Prices on Tesla.com compiled by Rob Maurer

My 5 Year numbers published in January are a bit outdated but not by much.
The average Model 3/Y pricing worldwide for Q4 2021 was $49.400 based on my analysis of the 10K filing.
Keep in mind that in Q4 2021, local sales in China of the Model 3 & Y accounted for 40% of all Model 3/Ys sold in Q4 worldwide.
The Model 3 sells for $44k in China while the Model Y sells for 49.7k (entry level trims). This brings down the worldwide average.
My latest average pricing for 2022 is $50,5k on Models 3/Y as the price increases will take time to show up and there will be a mix shift to lower priced variants as China local sales grow and Hertz grabs the cheaper Model 3 variant. The $50.5k is likely low but I will adjust as I get new info quarterly.

Here's the Q4 math.

Total Units of 291,760 exclude Leases while Revenues of $15,025,000 exclude Leases and Regulatory Credits.

 

[Ogre]

No!

What you meant to say is how upset you are that the promised sale seems to be over sooner than expected.

There will be NO allusions to things like "happiness" until after a new ATH has been reached.

Now, go stand in the corner for ten minutes and think about what you've done.

Happiness is when my TSLA investment is high enough to fork my IRA and establish an SEPP so I can stop working. No other benchmark really matters as far as I’m concerned.

I think that’ll be $1300 - 1500/ share. But inflation and some other craziness may change that.

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514278625872207875

 

[elasalle]

SP looking good heading into earnings ... planning to sell some more Dec 2K+ CC's next week (Mon or Tue). (& buying more shares) . cheers!!

 

[jbcarioca]

Working through taxes with the CPA. Sorry, that's the reason I'm so "punchy" today.

That one is the best reason of all.

 

[Ogre]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514278625872207875

It’s a great “tread”. Here is a screenshot so you don’t have to chase it down on Twitter.

Why Tesla (TSLA) is a great inflation hedge.

 

[jbcarioca]

This is correct. The numbers can be reported lower than are actually achieved, but not higher. (And presumably it's possible to game the numbers to achieve higher results, but if caught no one will ever trust your ratings again.)

There are different acceptable methodologies permitted by EPA rules, OEM can and do choose the ones that best present their objectives,

 

[Words of HABIT]

Buyer beware. A very important lesson learned by some today. Always double and triple check your sources of information prior to putting your money on the line. Some traders made out like bandits today, most all others lost their shirt betting on Lithium Corporation. I'll just stick with TSLA, thank you very much.

Lithium Corporation Comments on Tesla Rumor

ELKO, NV / ACCESSWIRE / April 13, 2022 / Lithium Corporation (OTCQB:LTUM) ("LTUM" or "the Company"), a North American company focused on energy metals for the growing energy storage sector and high-tech industries, wishes to inform shareholders that, contrary to a press release issued by unknown...

finance.yahoo.com

"Lithium Corporation (OTCQB:LTUM) ("LTUM" or "the Company"), a North American company focused on energy metals for the growing energy storage sector and high-tech industries, wishes to inform shareholders that, contrary to a press release issued by unknown parties on the 12th of April and rumors circulating on social media, we have not received so much as an expression of interest from Tesla, Inc. and no employees have left Lithium Corporation to take up employment with Tesla."