Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Interesting product roadmap leak (not by Tesla or a Tesla employee, but by an automotive consultant). It will be interesting to follow the proposed timeframes and products and see if they match up:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514216350817812482

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514256928658145282

http://www.globalautoforecasts.com/afs_pm/addons/ProgramDirNAm.pdf

edit: Column Titles
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Cybertruck October 2023, based full image. 10/2 vs 2/10...

 

[Knightshade]

There haven't been any filings regarding $LTUM at the SEC. Seems like they would need to file to alert the market.

Could be a penny stock pump and dump.

Possibly related news

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514271045896716288

 

[Stretch2727]

Do we have confirmation that the new Standard Range Model Y from Austin is using the NCA chemistry? Because it is not the highest range but more than what would be in an LFP pack, I wonder whether it is using LNMO instead.

Manganese is dirt cheap, so it would be great if they could use it to substitute partially for nickel.

I know that we went round-and-round on this a couple of months ago, but it would seem to be an important detail because of the cost differentials.

Could be as this is how it was shown at battery day, but recent comments by Elon suggested it was still in the future.

Elon Musk announces Tesla is working on new manganese battery cell

Elon Musk announced that Tesla sees potential in battery chemistry with a manganese-based cathode. The CEO reiterated that the industry...

electrek.co

This could be the explanation for the lower range of the 4680 car. They are saving $$ but the energy density is not as good as the current 2170.

The high nickel batteries just in cybertruck and semi.

Anyway, they will sell every car they can make even with lower range.

 

[jbcarioca]

EPA numbers are SELF REPORTED by SELF TESTING.

I explain the 4680 numbers as Tesla sandbagging the new SR Y so as not to Osbourne the existing 2170 based cars.

Again - Elon himself was CRYSTAL clear - no LFP in 4680. He said if they do LFP a different form factor is better for that, at what @jbcarioca alluded to. He was very clear and specific about this.

No argument. He was. My point is only that things do change. There is no question at all that LFP is both more stable and less intolerant of large variations in SOC, hence lower risk of 'thermal runaway' than with nickel-intensive options. So, ideal form factors are partly driven by BMS needs, partly by cooling issues and cost optimization. We all know those things.

We also know things can and do change. I do not disagree with you at all. How could I when your statements are true?
Yes "CRYSTAL". And other equally adamant points have changed with changing circumstances. Quoting one very famous person:
"When I am presented with new evidence I change my mind, what do you do?"

There has been major commodity price and availability fluctuations recently, and they are not receding. Technologies are advancing at a very, very rapid pace. Major changes are coming, but we don't know what they will be.

Of course the EPA standards for BEV are so flexible that OEM's can sandbag or not. Both of us are acutely well aware of that one.

I just edited this to remove a gross error that @mongo kindly pointed out.

 

[Krugerrand]

Super small company that doesn't make any money. For long-term growth and securing future supply at lower costs this makes sense. For the stock, mining is typically very low margin and not something that is likely to improve profitability in the near term for Tesla. If anything I'd expect a small negative to to the stock. But ~30m company is a drop in the bucket, doubt the market will really care on the Tesla side...

So, you don’t think there are any efficiencies waiting to be discovered in mining and that Tesla couldn’t find them? Like Tesla never figured out a way to decrease car parts by hundreds of components via single cast front and rear - just one of dozens, perhaps hundreds of ways Tesla has improved car manufacturing; a hundred year old industry?

Um…ok.

 

[MartinAustin]

Possibly related news

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514271045896716288

Another tweet deleted by "industry scooper" Sawyer Merritt. Not news he is scooping, this time

 

[henchman24]

So, you don’t think there are any efficiencies waiting to be discovered in mining and that Tesla couldn’t find them? Like Tesla never figured out a way to decrease car parts by hundreds of components via single cast front and rear - just one of dozens, perhaps hundreds of ways Tesla has improved car manufacturing; a hundred year old industry?

Um…ok.

I'm not saying anything of that sort. I'm saying the market will price any mining acquisition as a low margin, heavy cost intensive endeavor... and then price it as such until proven otherwise. Just like how they didn't price in Tesla's margins until it was clearly seen (and I'd say they are still behind)

 

[jbcarioca]

It's not as if he's a young person who's personality will suddenly be influenced by new found fame, I think he was genuinely surprised by all the attention and expressed that in the video. He's spent most of his life working in relative obscurity and suddenly people are swarming to talk to him everywhere he goes. He's always made some mistakes in his analysis of Tesla but overall he's usually more right than wrong.

In many things he is. However he still thinks of "operators" while not really understanding modern factory technology. He seems to have the idea, for example, that AGV are a new development, when they were in use in a factory I worked in as a college student. The primitive ones still were a marvelous innovation.

Frankly that is why I cancelled my subscription.

 

[Knightshade]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1514121746567208968

Remember when reporters would bother to check if a claim is even physically possible before publishing a story on it?

 

[UkNorthampton]

Another tweet deleted by "industry scooper" Sawyer Merritt. Not news he is scooping, this time

I've edited my post with a warning, putting rest of tweet in a spoiler. Not good for Benzinga, Sawyer or me. Neither Breaking, nor News.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

There haven't been any filings regarding $LTUM at the SEC. Seems like they would need to file to alert the market.

Could be a penny stock pump and dump.

yah, it is looking like it might be false. that explains why it has been under the radar

 

[AudubonB]

One of the three executives at Lithium Corp is Brian Goss.
Brian was my geochemistry classmate, housemate and running partner in grad school, and I was his Best Man.

As far as this hypojunior exploration company and its stock goes.....

....I am very happy to learn it is a different Brian Goss.

 

[Gigapress]

My original share price prediction:
I posted my revised 5 Year Forecast in January and calculated a Share Price of $1,930 by year end.
It was computed as follows:
GAAP EPS $12.87 X 150 multiple = $1,930
This was based on deliveries of 1,555k.
5 Year Forecast - Published in January

Current Thoughts:
I have not updated my 5 year model; but here is my current back of the envelope thinking:
Prior to the Shanghai shutdown, my GAAP EPS had risen to $13.30 from my original $12.87 (based on strong Q4 financial metrics).
If Shanghai returns to production by May 1, I only expect a Full Year EPS reduction by about $1.00 taking my GAAP EPS from $13.30 to $12.30.
GAAP EPS $12.30 X 150 multiple = $1,845 per share.

Why only a $1.00 EPS impact from a 1 month Shanghai Shutdown?
If Shanghai comes on line May 1, I still expect deliveries of 1,555k for the year. The lost April production in Shanghai of 70k units can be recouped over the 8 months of May-Dec across all 4 sites. It would require a 6% increase in the balance of year production versus my original production numbers.
The 6% increase is achievable . . .remember, Tesla is chip constrained in 2022 and not production constrained. If they have chips for 1,555k cars they will build 1,555k cars assuming Shanghai is back online by May 1. The reason for the $1.00 decline in EPS despite deliveries staying at 1,555k is because of inefficiencies incurred with a one month shutdown (particularly with labor costs).

A price of $1,845/shr by year end may seem aggressive considering we are at about $1,000/shr in April especially in-light of covid, Ukraine, Inflation, Fed Res rates increases . . . but Tesla will keep marching forward putting up huge profits and cash flow numbers . . . . there is the likely share split arriving too.
Tesla often turns on a dime . . .if Q1 financials are strong and Shanghai reopens by May 1 . . .we can move to new highs quickly.
Investing in Tesla will be a flight to safety.

I reviewed your linked forecasts from January and I’m wondering if you’re still forecasting 2022 M3/Y avg price of $50k and S/X $96k, representing zero 3/Y price increase from what we had in Q4 2021 and then gradually declining price into 2023 and beyond. These numbers are mathematically impossible because they’re outside the low end of Tesla’s price range. Unless prices plummet in the next few months and Berlin in 2022 produces almost none of those €70 Ys for the European & Mediterranean market.

US prices have been pretty close to global averages. Tesla minimum price in America for 3/Y is now $47k with everything else $56k+, and for S/X it is $100k with everything else $115k+. Of course, many people get more expensive trims and add options for FSD / paint / wheels / interior / hitch / extra seats. Also we’ll see more Y in the mix this year, which is now $60k minimum.

(I’ll put out my more detailed analysis on ASPs and revenue today as part of my promised demonstration of how I got to outrageous 2023 earnings on the order of $100B.)

The backlog lag before these prices hit will keep prices behind the times, but when averaging across 2022 that effect is likely canceled out by the trend of prices continuing to increase with no end in sight.

Current US Prices on Tesla.com compiled by Rob Maurer

 

[StealthP3D]

Company's that are growing fast and have a high confidence of success/profits (rare combo) are valued more on future years outcomes discounted backward more than present success. I've thought about it a lot and it's basically mathematically / game theory guaranteed.

If the market has high confidence that Tesla in 2023 or 2024 will produce massive profits, they value Tesla today based on those earnings (discounted). So even bad earnings for one quarter don't have to ding share price if it doesn't affect outlook future year profits.

Tesla could have a big drop in earnings but if Austin / Berlin show a positive ramp to improve confidence of higher earnings next year, stock could easily go up.

Exactly, well put!

COVID and various governmental responses to it are not Tesla's fault and these things barely move the needle in terms of where Tesla will be in 5 years. I would even argue that COVID has accelerated the move to sustainable energies (accelerated the adoption curves) in ways that are difficult to document considering we can't go back and do a non-COVID "do-over". COVID has changed the way people think about everything and they want to leave the bad memories behind them. One way to do that is to embrace change.

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm not saying anything of that sort. I'm saying the market will price any mining acquisition as a low margin, heavy cost intensive endeavor... and then price it as such until proven otherwise. Just like how they didn't price in Tesla's margins until it was clearly seen (and I'd say they are still behind)

You have a lot of confidence in how the market will perceive this and what the market will do with it.

 

[StealthP3D]

Q2 numbers likely will just present another predictable buying opportunity. We know why the numbers will be down... all temporary.

I wouldn't be so certain. In my experience, once the market has a widely held expectation, the market loves to blow it up.

Said another way, if the market largely expects bad Q2 numbers will crater the stock and create a buying opportunity, bad numbers would be more likely to kick off a powerful rally. I've seen that dynamic play out time and time again.

Of course, we don't know what the market expectations going into Q2 results will be yet, so we will have to wait and see.

 

[SOULPEDL]

... I trust that Sandy Munro will buy a Texas Std AWD Model Y and show us with a teardown how it works.

Cheers!

How does one buy a Texas Model Y? How do we know it's not coming from Fremont?
Asking for a friend.

 

[Knightshade]

How does one buy a Texas Model Y? How do we know it's not coming from Fremont?
Asking for a friend.

Currently? Be an employee.

But in the future it's currently looking like the answer will be "Order an AWD SR Model Y" since those will only be made in Texas, with 4680 structural packs.

 

[bkp_duke]

No argument. He was. My point is only that things do change. There is no question at all that LFP is both more stable and less intolerant of large variations in SOC, hence lower risk of 'thermal runaway' than with nickel-intensive options. So, ideal form factors are partly driven by BMS needs, partly by cooling issues and cost optimization. We all know those things.

We also know things can and do change. I do not disagree with you at all. How could I when your statements are true?
Yes "CRYSTAL". And other equally adamant points have changed with changing circumstances. Quoting one very famous person:
"When I am presented with new evidence I change my mind, what do you do?"

There has been major commodity price and availability fluctuations recently, and they are not receding. Technologies are advancing at a very, very rapid pace. Major changes are coming, but we don't know what they will be.

Of course the EPA standards for BEV are so flexible that OEM's can sandbag or not. Both of us are acutely well aware of that one.

I just edited this to remove a gross error that @mongo kindly pointed out.

Working through taxes with the CPA. Sorry, that's the reason I'm so "punchy" today.

 

[Mengy]

How does one buy a Texas Model Y? How do we know it's not coming from Fremont?
Asking for a friend.

My hunch is the new MY Standard will be added to the store webpage any day now, and if you order the Standard MY then it must come from Texas since it will only be made there for the near future. If you order a MY LR or a MY P then you'd get a Fremont car.

That's how I think this will go for now. Eventually the different MY models will likely be made anywhere and everywhere.