Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Drezil]

I kinda get that. But here’s one example. Delivery centre for us is 500 kilometres away. Because of flooding there is only one open highway to get there and it’s a high mountain road that needs snow tires. Timing is pretty important for us. Hopefully the stars will align and there will be a weather window that corresponds with our delivery in February. We bought chains and will bring them with us. If there is no weather window we’ll have to turn it down.

Wasn't "take delivery at home" a thing once? I mean .. there must be more than just 1 person in that area be in this situation .. why not pack a dozen on a truck & deliver them that way?

 

[winfield100]

I wonder about how it all collapses, like what comes first, second...? Anyone for a thought experiment?
- Parts not available
- Nobody want's your used ICE
- Nobody want's your Hybrid
- Price of a barrel of oil drops from low demand
- Gas prices rise as refineries exit
- Gas stations close or convert to EV, no customers

Like what's the actual wakeup call that sets it in motion to where it's so obvious and the scramble happens in every home? When can I say to the people in our cul de sac... "I warned you."

@SOULPEDL
(used to live near this area when it was all farmlands)
$30,000 markup on a $40,000 electric truck

 

[JRP3]

Wasn't "take delivery at home" a thing once? I mean .. there must be more than just 1 person in that area be in this situation .. why not pack a dozen on a truck & deliver them that way?

I'm doing that for an extra $750, Tesla arranges a third party shipper. To avoid a 10+ hour round trip in the winter it's worth it to me.

 

[mltv]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1475872952180563973

 

[EV forever]

so, is Elon done selling? We are back in the green now. I am guessing Elon finished his remaining sell today?

 

[MP3Mike]

@SOULPEDL
(used to live near this area when it was all farmlands)
$30,000 markup on a $40,000 electric truck
View attachment 749240

To be fair none of the first deliveries are going to be the $40k version. They are likely going to cost at least double that.

 

[mltv]

Tesla is pushing hard on Q4 delivery. My father ordered the Model Y just a week or 2 ago (changing from a M3. Originally he want a CT but could no longer wait). Today they message him he can take deliver today. Note this is a benefit for taking deliver in Fremont.

 

[generalenthu]

so, is Elon done selling? We are back in the green now. I am guessing Elon finished his remaining sell today?

Tuesday has been a regular selling day for Elon, but its not clear there's any selling going on. The volume today is lower than yesterday so far. Here's my volume tracking as of 12:05 PM EST.

edit: to be noted, this last tranche is a bit smaller than the previous ones.

 

[Prunesquallor]

so, is Elon done selling? We are back in the green now. I am guessing Elon finished his remaining sell today?

 

[madodel]

To be fair none of the first deliveries are going to be the $40k version. They are likely going to cost at least double that.

So how much do you think Tesla dealers will markup the CT? Do the Ford dealers at least include undercoating and pin striping for that $30k?

 

[MartinAustin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1475872952180563973

Honestly, seeing this on December 27th indicates to me that Tesla isn't anywhere near starting up production. They said they would start in 2021 and have deliveries next month but I don't think that will happen. (Unless this was some sort of vanity drive-around just for the drone flyer videos)

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Wasn't "take delivery at home" a thing once? I mean .. there must be more than just 1 person in that area be in this situation .. why not pack a dozen on a truck & deliver them that way?

No idea. Interesting approach though.

 

[Curt Renz]

so, is Elon done selling? We are back in the green now. I am guessing Elon finished his remaining sell today?

I suspect that is the case. The chart pattern today is similar to his past sales. That should be his last tranche of stock for the current selling program. We'll know better if a Form 4 is reported later today.

 

[Curt Renz]

Tesla is pushing hard on Q4 delivery. My father ordered the Model Y just a week or 2 ago (changing from a M3. Originally he want a CT but could no longer wait). Today they message him he can take deliver today. Note this is a benefit for taking deliver in Fremont.

I ordered a Model 3 Long Range yesteday and was simply told to expect delivery in March. Today they tell me the estimated delivery window is now February 3 to March 3.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Honestly, seeing this on December 27th indicates to me that Tesla isn't anywhere near starting up production. They said they would start in 2021 and have deliveries next month but I don't think that will happen. (Unless this was some sort of vanity drive-around just for the drone flyer videos)

I'm guessing that the original report that it was for 4680 structural pack is incorrect. It's probably a reference build for checking quality. For example, built there to compare with Fremont, or from Fremont to compare with Austin, or for taking to another location to examine.

 

[Words of HABIT]

I suspect that is the case. The chart pattern today is similar to his past sales. That should be his last tranche of stock for the current selling program. We'll no better if a Form 4 is reported later today.

@Curt Renz, are you implying we hit ATH by today's close? I'm o'k with that.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Fun to speculate. My wife has a film camera that we haven't used in nearly 20 years. When we got our first digital camera, we stopped buying film for the old one and forgot about it. Now we have great cameras on our smartphones, so we have forgotten about the digital cameras too.

Maybe this transition is too simple as a model for the EV transition. After all, the cameras we have forgotten over the years are small and still sit somewhere in our closets. They were never such a large investment that we needed to sell them or make special arrangements to haul them away. But one thing seems clear, from the perspective of early adopters, you can easily trade in, sell or give away your ICE vehicle when you replace it with an EV. You can easily forget about you old ICE. It's someone else's problem.

Internationally, we know that affluent countries tend to buy new cars and a large fraction of used cars get exported to less affluent countries. So affluent countries that transition quickly to EVs could simply cast off most of the aging ICE fleet. Forgotten.

But this raises questions out the countries that import used ICE. Will they become flooded with cars that nobody wants. For example, parts of Africa have become dumping ground for cast off used clothing donated from affluent countries. The poor can pick off what they want from mountains of clothing. Perhaps we will see giant tracts of land in Africa covered with used vehicle, a defacto pick-and-pull for spare parts. A giant fleet of old ICE could cannibalize through to the next century. This could have adverse environmental consequences for poorer countries with cast off fleets. Proper recycling of used vehicles might not be available at scale in these places. When ICE values decline so much that affluent countries are "donating" ICE to poor countries, watch out. Donating easily crosses the line in to dumping. Dumping ICE into poor countries that lack automotive recycling infrastructure is negligence. It would be far better to recycle cars in affluent countries and donate useful reclaimed metals to developing countries if one has genuine charity in mind.

Of course, in affluent countries there very well may persist a nostalgia market for ICE. But my hunch is that the nostalgia market will fixate around certain iconic models and types of vehicles. Watch what ICE models remain in production the longest. There's a lot of forgettable ICE that will go out of production by the end of the decade. My own modeling suggests that from 2024 to 2030 non-BEV falls from 80% of new car market to 20%. This is a rapid collapse of demand for the most forgettable models of ICE. What's left in production after 2030 is largely niche, nostalgia or going-out-of-business models. Only the nostalgia models will have any sort of durable value. However, nostalgic petrol heads will have a huge supply of used vehicles to pick over for many decades. Nostalgia buyers may even find that they prefer pre-EV vintage model years to post-EV model years. As companies like Hyundai shut down ICE development units the quality of new ICE could decline. ICE makers just try to make the post-EV ICE models as cheap as possible with little inspiration or innovation. So the nostalgic car buyer could come to appreciate the older model years back when car makers still had some passion for antiquated technology.

Another twist here is that if you can use your smartphone to call a self-driving EV at lower cost than owning an EV or ICE, then quite a lot of us could forget even about owning a car. This would be like the digital camera we never use because smartphone.

OK, I got it...
"Donate your used car to NPR, and get a tax write-off!"

Well, that's not gonna last, so I suspect the recycle industry kicks in here as folks realize the true energy costs and the actual Carbon-taxed economy that prices raw materials accordingly (we hope).

There will be the diehard hold-outs for sure, but likely another S-curve and slower to transition than the intro of EVs as the users split into 2 groups (Tesla Network vs Ownership). This accelerates the junk pile you describe. (NPR, careful what you wish for.)

Our used clothing channel in the US is Mexico. I think it's gonna look like Cuba after a while, with many converting to EV (vs 4 cylinders in full sized vehicles like Cuba has been doing for decades). Clearly, that's additional battery demand, and it could be massive in scale.

Lots of great perspectives, I wasn't sure about lowered gas prices but pure supply and demand seems inevitable here. True cost of ownership will be unclear for many and they will continue to see the discounted ICE as a bargain. I still have trouble explaining total cost to folks. It's a credit rich economy and the low sale price will continue to deceive.

This could be a new thread. Not quite on topic here, but super interesting and Hyundai made me realize how fast we are going to transition, with or without new law. This group of skilled intellects, rich with experience in all fields, might collectively figure out some equitable solutions for leadership or even new business that align to the mission. This is possible.

 

[thx1139]

Honestly, seeing this on December 27th indicates to me that Tesla isn't anywhere near starting up production. They said they would start in 2021 and have deliveries next month but I don't think that will happen. (Unless this was some sort of vanity drive-around just for the drone flyer videos)

Thats my take as well, unless they have a version that doesnt use a 4680 structural pack and that is ready to produce or even is being produced and they are being stored in an empty area of the factory.

 

[jerry33]

I ordered a Model 3 Long Range yesteday and was simply told to expect delivery in March. Today they tell me the estimated delivery window is now February 3 to March 3.

March 3rd is the day I took delivery on my first Tesla back in 2013.

 

[generalenthu]

Looks very murky to me whether or not Elon is selling today. We are outperforming macros by a good bit as of this.