Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[wtlloyd]

The message that this sends to auto buyers globally should not be under-estimated. This is a powerful message to every buyer of new cars, not that the future of the automobile might be EV's, or that the future will be a mix of EV's and ICE, but the future of the automobile is EV and it's coming much more quickly than you thought. Too many people still don't know this or think this way.

This from the article : "EVs are predicted to dominate the global market before 2030, compared to forecasts made in 2020 that the eco-friendly automobiles had been expected to account for half of new car sales in 2040."

In ONE year, outlook advanced by TEN years. Chew on that a while...

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I'm not sure if it is common for customers to custom order a product and then refuse delivery because the timing isn't convenient or whatever other reason. I can't think of a single company other than Tesla that allows customers to do that. That must cause a lot of headaches for Tesla when this happens. I'm surprised they don't charge a fee to discourage it or compensate them for the extra time and paperwork of dealing with finding a new home for an abandoned car.

 

[Todd Burch]

My hunch is that was an Elon sale.

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm not sure if it is common for customers to order a product and then refuse delivery because the timing isn't convenient or whatever other reason. I can't think of a single company other than Tesla that allows customers to do that.

Just a simple situation along those lines. If you order something for pickup at say Home Depot, its fully paid for but they will cancel your order and refund it if you don't pick up within 3-4 days. Some think that just because they initiated payment, that Tesla should just sit on a car for however long until they feel like picking it up.

Who is so busy that they can't pick up a dang car?

 

[JustSaying]

The correlation between the value of my Fidelity portfolio going up and the number of times they contact me with suggestions for diversification are strong.

I could make it very clear to them that I'll never take their advice but there's a part of me that likes keeping them on a string thinking that just maybe the next time I'll change my mind. You'd think after two years of being strung along they'd get the hint

I emailed my Fidelity "financial advisor" that I am a CPA, former member of AICPA PFP practice section a satisfied customer and I always recomend Fidelity.
The emails keep coming, I just got invited to join him for a year end portfolio review.
(I am not sure if he wants to give me advice or learn about Tesla and how I got so lucky in 21 with my Tesla leaps and calls)

 

[jhm]

I'm not sure if it is common for customers to order a product and then refuse delivery because the timing isn't convenient or whatever other reason. I can't think of a single company other than Tesla that allows customers to do that. That must cause a lot of headaches for Tesla when this happens. I'm surprised they don't charge a fee to discourage it or compensate them for the extra time and paperwork of dealing with finding a new home for an abandoned car.

I'm not so sure even Tesla does that. Several years ago, a friend of mine took delivery of a Model 3 at quarter end. Tesla did not have the exact order that he placed. Rather they had a car that was really close and slightly upgraded from what my friend ordered. This is what my friend took in delivery. My sense is that if Tesla can find any willing buyer for an available car, they will not hold it over the quarter end.

 

[wtlloyd]

I wonder about how it all collapses, like what comes first, second...? Anyone for a thought experiment?
- Parts not available
- Nobody want's your used ICE
- Nobody want's your Hybrid
- Price of a barrel of oil drops from low demand
- Gas prices rise as refineries exit
- Gas stations close or convert to EV, no customers

Like what's the actual wakeup call that sets it in motion to where it's so obvious and the scramble happens in every home? When can I say to the people in our cul de sac... "I warned you."

I think about the change coming a lot. Your (initial) list is a pretty good summation, I think, except I would invert it if looking at it as a timeline. Gas stations will convert, largest stations first as they have the needed space - the stores (where all the profit comes from currently) will expand to contain counter service. Food to order such as sandwiches, pizza, coffee barrista service...and a very small surcharge on charging rates.

 

[NicoV]

I know a guy who is an auto broker and he is advising all his clients to get EVs so they don't get stuck with obsolete technology and very low resale values as a result.

Maybe true on the very long term (10 years or so), but this article has a different short term (couple of years) view: https://www.tijd.be/ondernemen/auto...sten-per-auto-met-kwart-stijgen/10355986.html

The German car manufacturers have seen their ASP improve on average by 25% since 2019, eg Mercedes-Benz 38.000 euro in 2019 to over 54.000 euro at the end of Q3 according to the Financial Times. Audi from 46.000 to 57.500 euro. This because lack of semiconductors allows them to focus on high value cars.
The Germans are content with lower volumes and higher prices, which indirectly leads to shortages in the second hand car market (and thus higher prices).
All caused by semiconductor shortages of course.

 

[Krugerrand]

Not trying to sound classist here, but your average EV driver isn't going to pop into the station for a lotto ticket and some skoal. You need lattes and avocado toast or something.

You’re not wrong about the general stereotype, but you will be sooner than you think. I’m already seeing the quintessential skoal chewing redneck wrapping their brains around EVs as they begin to see what’s going to be available for their lifestyles. The more aware of that demographic is actually excited to go electric.

There will always be the foot dragger, unbeliever, it’s the devil’s work person. But the very second you let one of them experience a Cybertruck; game over. Because this demographic will instantly appreciate it for what it can do.

My redneck, hunter, skoal chewing, mountain contractor got a black Cybertruck hoodie for Christmas. By the time I’m done, every single redneck within a hundred miles of my mountain will own a CT.

 

[thx1139]

I think about the change coming a lot. Your (initial) list is a pretty good summation, I think, except I would invert it if looking at it as a timeline. Gas stations will convert, largest stations first as they have the needed space - the stores (where all the profit comes from currently) will expand to contain counter service. Food to order such as sandwiches, pizza, coffee barrista service...and a very small surcharge on charging rates.

An issue is the cost and time of cleaning up old gas station sites. Many sit dormant for years because of the cleanup costs associated with tiny spills that happened over and over and over again and small leaks from underground storage tanks.

 

[Nocturnal]

You’re not wrong about the general stereotype, but you will be sooner than you think. I’m already seeing the quintessential skoal chewing redneck wrapping their brains around EVs as they begin to see what’s going to be available for their lifestyles. The more aware of that demographic is actually excited to go electric.

There will always be the foot dragger, unbeliever, it’s the devil’s work person. But the very second you let one of them experience a Cybertruck; game over. Because this demographic will instantly appreciate it for what it can do.

My redneck, hunter, skoal chewing, mountain contractor got a black Cybertruck hoodie for Christmas. By the time I’m done, every single redneck within a hundred miles of my mountain will own a CT.

I do agree, just needs more time. I think the CT will change a lot of minds. Before I bailed on CrapBook, I saw many in the CT groups that didn't like Teslas/EVs at all but who were excited to get a Cybertruck.

I will be spending a lot of time taking mine to places like the drag strip or tractor pull like events and get some more butts in seats, just like I did with my 3.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Just a simple situation along those lines. If you order something for pickup at say Home Depot, its fully paid for but they will cancel your order and refund it if you don't pick up within 3-4 days. Some think that just because they initiated payment, that Tesla should just sit on a car for however long until they feel like picking it up.

Who is so busy that they can't pick up a dang car?

I kinda get that. But here’s one example. Delivery centre for us is 500 kilometres away. Because of flooding there is only one open highway to get there and it’s a high mountain road that needs snow tires. Timing is pretty important for us. Hopefully the stars will align and there will be a weather window that corresponds with our delivery in February. We bought chains and will bring them with us. If there is no weather window we’ll have to turn it down.

 

[Prunesquallor]

You’re not wrong about the general stereotype, but you will be sooner than you think. I’m already seeing the quintessential skoal chewing redneck wrapping their brains around EVs as they begin to see what’s going to be available for their lifestyles. The more aware of that demographic is actually excited to go electric.

There will always be the foot dragger, unbeliever, it’s the devil’s work person. But the very second you let one of them experience a Cybertruck; game over. Because this demographic will instantly appreciate it for what it can do.

My redneck, hunter, skoal chewing, mountain contractor got a black Cybertruck hoodie for Christmas. By the time I’m done, every single redneck within a hundred miles of my mountain will own a CT.

You're starting to dox yourself. When I see a bunch of rednecks in CT hoodies, I'll know I’m getting close.

 

[JRP3]

If Tesla impose stronger non refundable deposit in the near future then we know why.

Not sure how you come to that conclusion, I didn't cancel my order, I just reminded them when I was willing to take delivery.

 

[jhm]

You’re not wrong about the general stereotype, but you will be sooner than you think. I’m already seeing the quintessential skoal chewing redneck wrapping their brains around EVs as they begin to see what’s going to be available for their lifestyles. The more aware of that demographic is actually excited to go electric.

There will always be the foot dragger, unbeliever, it’s the devil’s work person. But the very second you let one of them experience a Cybertruck; game over. Because this demographic will instantly appreciate it for what it can do.

My redneck, hunter, skoal chewing, mountain contractor got a black Cybertruck hoodie for Christmas. By the time I’m done, every single redneck within a hundred miles of my mountain will own a CT.

Thank you, brother, for your mission work taking to light of the EV gospel to the skoal chewing, critter hunting, cabin building redneck mountain people.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Read in Reuters Canada: U.S. regulators step up probe into Hyundai, Kia engine fires — Reuters Canada

Ah, the fallacies of ICE.
"(Reuters) - The U.S. auto safety agency has stepped up its probe into engine fires that have plagued some Hyundai Motor Co and Kia Motors Corp vehicles for over six years.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said it had opened an “engineering analysis” covering about 3 million vehicles to evaluate, among other things, the efficacy of recalls initiated by the two automakers. The agency added that it was aware of 161 fires occurring potentially due to engine failures.
The two South Korean companies had agreed to a record $210 million civil penalty last year after regulators said they failed to recall 1.6 million vehicles for engine issues in a timely fashion."

 

[JRP3]

This is too funny, the TSLAQ brain trust decided that foaming car wash is evidence of car fires at Tesla

https://twitter.com/x/status/1475545986781134851

 

[Curt Renz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1475864729763696641

 

[Singuy]

This is too funny, the TSLAQ brain trust decided that foaming car wash is evidence of car fires at Tesla

View attachment 749237

https://twitter.com/x/status/1475545986781134851

The only people I know who makes negative money per hour. All this research just to lose money on a consistent basis. They will make more money standing on the side of the road with a sign. Someone should let the secret out.

 

[madodel]

The correlation between the value of my Fidelity portfolio going up and the number of times they contact me with suggestions for diversification are strong.

I could make it very clear to them that I'll never take their advice but there's a part of me that likes keeping them on a string thinking that just maybe the next time I'll change my mind. You'd think after two years of being strung along they'd get the hint

Do what you need to do that makes you feel comfortable. Don't let them pressure you into making a decision about your investment to keep them happy. I've been with Fidelity over 20 years now and in the beginning they contacted me at least monthly. Now the guy that was my assigned advisor back then (and still is now) is a VP there and he has an assistant call me once a year to see if I want to schedule an appointment with him. This guy convinced me that having too much AAPL 20 years ago was dangerous and I needed to diversify. Sadly I finally let him talk me into selling half my AAPL chairs just before iPhone. Their mantra of "diversify for safety" probably makes sense for a lot of people who really don't know what they are doing, but also selling/buying keeps the churn going which profits the brokers. It was a learning experience that cost me a few million dollars.