Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Antares Nebula]

"Did Tesla just sell out of the medium range Model 3? The MR is gone from the order page. Demand must have really spiked."

Alter Viggo on Twitter

This is interesting. For Tesla to remove the MR from order page strongly suggest that (not only are they discontinuing it) but that they are now sold out of existing inventory. Thus knowing the amount of MRs produced in Q1 would contribute great insight into deliveries (as all produced MRs should be delivered in Q1 -- MR only sells in North America).

 

[Fobble]

Increase cash-on-hand any way possible....... Check-ish (Thanks for the deposits, you unsecured creditors, you!)
.

This is well aligned with Jeff Osborne's view: "$2500 deposit for Model Y reservation instead of $1000 is a sign of crash crunch"

 

[KarenRei]

This is BAD ASS!!!

It's not going to look like that... or even close.

It's going to be aero. That's not aero.

 

[winfield100]

Two seminal papers (I wonder if Elon has read these):

@Antares Nebula
Hmmm.
Thank you for pointing to a more succinct description of my incoherent thoughts ‘n ideas.
Took a bit to read, much longer to digest,eh?
and that was 20 years ago.

 

[bdy0627]

Just ordered model Y (will join my model 3). So pumped up. Again no expectation in terms of timing, just hoping that initial delivery quality is better this time. This will replace our MDX (give us 17-18 mpg city mileage).

One more point. Hopefully they release seven seat option sooner (not sure why they are pushing back the $3k option revenue).

If a substantial percentage of people are ordering the 7 seat option, no reason why Tesla couldn't make that available sooner.

 

[Fact Checking]

It's not going to look like that... or even close.

It's going to be aero. That's not aero.

If it indeed has a 200 kWh battery does it need to be aerodynamic?

 

[KarenRei]

This is well aligned with Jeff Osborne's view: "$2500 deposit for Model Y reservation instead of $1000 is a sign of crash crunch"

I find it funny how analysts keep saying that they want to see Tesla raise more cash and sell stock, but then when Tesla increases its cash position and does acquisitions with stock, they say, "SEE, TESLA IS DOOMED!"

I mean, make up your damned mind, people.

More cash is always good. Doesn't mean that you have some urgent need for it. IMHO, Tesla should try to secure a better cash pile, in the event of a trade war with the EU later this year which would mean that they'd sell either a lower-cost mix in Europe, or have to lower prices (and thus margins) to compensate for the tariffs. (On the other hand, a trade war would to some extent work both ways, as it'd raise the costs of European vehicles in the US, both EVs and "competing" ICE vehicles like BMWs and Audis, and thus could increase US sales somewhat).

 

[ZachF]

Originally. I don't believe that to be the case anymore because body on frame construction is not as safe as unibody construction.

Part of the big reason body-on-frame is preferred for trucks is because you can remove and replace the bed with equipment if it is a work truck.

 

[KarenRei]

If it indeed has a 200 kWh battery does it need to be aerodynamic?

Yes.

• Battery size directly affects production and maintenance costs, which in turn affects the total addressable market size and how easy it is to compete against Tesla within a given market.
  Battery size affects handling.
• Battery size affects how much you sink into loose ground
• Battery size amplifies suspension losses on bad roads
• Heavier batteries have knock-on effects throughout the vehicle, increasing the demands on the suspension, the crash structure, etc etc.
• Less efficient EVs take more energy and thus cost more energy to operate, particularly when supercharging.
• Less efficient EVs spend longer sitting around at Superchargers on trips.
• Less efficient EVs mean less throughput for Tesla at its Supercharger stations

Etc, etc, etc.

It will be efficient. Tesla always does efficient, and for very critical reasons. It's what makes Teslas have such better stats than its "competitors".

 

[Pras]

Thats the perfect reason for not buying any of the competitors, where are you going to charge it. Road tripping in a Tesla is so easy..

Here's another render from InsideEV:

New Tesla Electric Pickup Render Is Bold, Reminds Us Of Ram Truck

More conventional looking in white, while still badass in all black. The front flatbed is a nice touch.

Gonna be an interesting unveil later this year, but chances are high that either you or your wife is going to be disappointed.

​

First principle guys...is it blade runner worthy. I say no to the second picture.

 

[Fact Checking]

More cash is always good.

Also note that opening the Model Y configurator and requiring $2,500 deposit solved a number of difficult structural problems in the Model 3 reservation system:

• It measures actual demand for specific trims. In particular the popularity of AWD on the Model 3 caught Tesla by surprise. Reservations didn't give any idea about take rate of options.
• $2,500 is more customer commitment than a $1,000 deposit - so cancellations might be lower.
• The Model 3 preorder queue created unfair outcomes where "late customers" were allowed to "jump the queue" as the configurator opened for non- reservation holders. This created quite some resentment. The Model Y configurator on the other hand is fundamentally fair: first come first served on a geographical region basis.
• $2,500 avoids all the unnecessary comparisons to Model 3 pre-orders. In fact Tesla rarely published actual order queue numbers in the past - and they might as well stay silent about Model Y order numbers. I'm sure competitors would love to have access to such proprietary model popularity numbers, but Tesla is under no obligation to disclose them. This would also de-fang the pre-orders FUD that was a favorite disinformation game of the shortz.

So the $2,500 configurator deposits are a very elegant solution to all these problems - the cash effect is mostly just a happy side effect.

 

[winfield100]

SpaceX BFS - Phase 1 Big Falcon Hopper (BFH) - Photos and Updates

View attachment 387372

Is there a launch of the Falcon Heavy 4/7/2019 out of Canavral/Kennedy in Florida at about 6:36EST (3 weeks!)
It is, to me, more viscerally interesting to see a falcon launch, esp heavy, than static test

 

[Webeevdrivers]

That is unfortunately the case until Tesla comes out with an adaptor. I suspect this adaptor will be easy to make because CCS and Tesla charging are not very far apart technically.

I get that Tesla has higher priorities than a few thousand schleps like us in BC. I want Tesla to succeed in a big way. But I will continue to vent because, well, I can. We have been waiting for awhile and it looks like we’ll be waiting a while longer. We’ll probably by the Leaf E-Plus this time to replace Angela’s smart ED and then wait four more years and replace my 2016 Leaf SV with a 3...assuming it has Chademo or CCS. I can’t see Tesla building out the supercharger network 10 fold in BC by then (I wouldn’t) for probably less than 10,000 customers. We are an EV only family so no ICE backup. We thought about renting for those 10 or 12 weekends per year that we tour the Kootenays, interior etc but it’s hard to go back to ice when you have been driving only EV for 4 years. Sigh.

Whine mode off...for a while.

 

[KarenRei]

Is there a launch of the Falcon Heavy 4/7/2019 out of Canavral/Kennedy in Florida at about 6:36EST (3 weeks!)

Yeah, we're about to enter a really exciting period with SpaceX Lots of big milestones for Starship Hopper, Falcon Heavy, and crewed spaceflight over the next several months.

 

[Freder Reeve]

Here's another render from InsideEV:

oooh I like where he took it.

I still wonder/daydream if the entire cab/crew cab area isn't a fabricated structure to hide a blade runner looking beast underneath. sorry for my crap pics

 

[Antares Nebula]

@Antares Nebula
Hmmm.
Thank you for pointing to a more succinct description of my incoherent thoughts ‘n ideas.
Took a bit to read, much longer to digest,eh?
and that was 20 years ago.

(Apologies off topic, but one last post)

The extension thesis:

The hammer extends the arm, the telescope the eye, the computer the mind. The degree of extension (or incorporation) depends on various factors (as listed in the above papers). To wit, a prosthetic leg may be more considered a part of one's body than a walking cane or hammer.

But interesting in regards to Musk's Neauralink endeavor. Consider the progression of computing technology:

Large computer rooms (World War 2, 1950s) >> Personal Computers >> Smartphones >> Wearables (Apple watch, Apple/Google glasses) >> (and finally) cybernetic implants (a la Neauralink).

Notice the greater and greater closeness and intimacy to the body of computing technology over time. People consider their smartphones as a very personal item and many would feel violated if strangers just started playing with them (like they would feel violated if strangers started playing with parts of their own body). Not exactly, but you get the point. There has even been legal rulings to this effect (whether law enforcement has unfettered access to one's smartphone). If you have the right to remain silent, then (if your smartphone is considered an extension of your mind/body) that right extends to your smartphone as well.

 

[Beltsbear]

Here's another render from InsideEV:

New Tesla Electric Pickup Render Is Bold, Reminds Us Of Ram Truck

More conventional looking in white, while still badass in all black. The front flatbed is a nice touch.

Gonna be an interesting unveil later this year, but chances are high that either you or your wife is going to be disappointed.

​

Interesting but I don’t want to compete with the hummer h2 for numbers of logos on the truck.

 

[Antares Nebula]

I find it funny how analysts keep saying that they want to see Tesla raise more cash and sell stock, but then when Tesla increases its cash position and does acquisitions with stock, they say, "SEE, TESLA IS DOOMED!"

I mean, make up your damned mind, people.

More cash is always good. Doesn't mean that you have some urgent need for it. IMHO, Tesla should try to secure a better cash pile, in the event of a trade war with the EU later this year which would mean that they'd sell either a lower-cost mix in Europe, or have to lower prices (and thus margins) to compensate for the tariffs. (On the other hand, a trade war would to some extent work both ways, as it'd raise the costs of European vehicles in the US, both EVs and "competing" ICE vehicles like BMWs and Audis, and thus could increase US sales somewhat).

This is because the bear thesis, in all its fractured components, are ultimately conflicted (and contradictory). Thus you have the principle of explosion, whereby from a single contradiction, any statement follows. And so bears put forth anything and everything under the sun as arguments against Tesla.

Witness that for shorts, it doesn't matter whether model 3 ramps successfully or not. If it doesn't, then they say that Tesla failed to reach their 10000/wk goal. If they do reach or go beyond that goal, then even better because (according to shorts) every car they sell is at a loss, so Tesla will lose even more money. But should somehow Tesla actually make a profit, all the more better for the shorts, because then everyone can see what a ridiculous PE ratio Tesla has.

So for shorts, if Tesla makes less cars, they (Tesla) are screwed. If they make more cars, they're screwed. Make no profit, they're screwed. Make profit, they're screwed. More automation, they're screwed. Less automation, they're screwed. Delay of new models, they're screwed. More new models, they're screwed. Raise capital, they're screwed. Fail to raise capital, they're screwed. They're just f****** screwed no matter what they do. Easy peasy, Tesla is the best short in the world.

Principle of explosion - Wikipedia

 

[AlMc]

Lemur, the Mid-range 3 is gone. We'll miss ya.

As long as' Le Jerome' is still there I can live with that.

 

[AlMc]

Fred alert
MR is no more.

As for FredL...don't let the door hit you in the a$$.