Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Antares Nebula]

There were a couple of other Model Y unveil surprises to me:

• Elon confirmed FSD will be feature-complete in the next 9 months (by end of 2019),
• Model 3 and Model Y order page lists the upcoming FSD features:
  • "Coming later this year:"
    • "Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs."
    • "Automatic driving on city streets."
  • Model Y lists these and the existing FSD features as part of the FSD option.

• No $1,000 pre-orders, but $2,500 (fully refundable) configurator open. This is a very nice touch, because it allows the measurement of demand for the take rate of actual trims and options. Also de-emphasizes comparisons with Model 3 $1,000 pre-orders.

• Panoramic glass roof - this is very nice and will be a big selling point too IMO.

• Range is better than expected, cargo space is huge and 7 seats will make it a popular family car - Osbourning any competing SUVs that have a lower entry price than the X, while safely differentiated both from Model X features and looks.

• Could result in more Model 3 (or Model X) orders: with the Model Y being a known quantity and having fix prices and expected production, it could trigger quite a few "the Model 3 is large enough for us, we'll trade up to the Y once the 4th kid is underway" decision.

To me the Model Y unveil was exactly what I hoped it to be: a gorgeous crossover with well specified looks, features and pricing, differentiated from the Model X, which should unlock more Q1 demand and which should Osbourne the heck out of the (mostly ICE) competition.

In ~2 years ICE carmakers should book a ~1.5 million units sized hole in their SUV order books in the $39k-$80k price segment, in the ~90 billion dollars per year order of magnitude.

Just saying.

I think most of what you listed was well known prior. Feature complete FSD by 2019 end was already mentioned by Musk in ArkInvest podcast, including traffic lights, stop signs, etc.

Various people guessed 2500 deposit. Though I think the ability to order specific configurations vs just reservations was different. And yes, it will help Tesla gauge configuration demand. Good move.

Panoramic glass roof. Isn't this what the Model 3 has, or what am I missing?

Agree about the seating and cargo space. Very competitive. It doesn't look it from the outside. I'd really like to see a close-up in person.

I guess the big hits (IMO), is the 7 seater / large cargo space and the $39k base. Skeptics questioned how functional it will be and whether the price would be competitive enough (some folks were guessing $45k base). Tesla dispelled those concerns, turning the myth into reality, while putting the skeptics and competitors on notice. Again, I don't think that there was a lot of hype or wow factor or surprise, but tons of substance that will translate into durable demand. The specs and pricing are very competitive. It was a very sober but substantive launch. I think this article summed it up nicely:

Tesla Model Y Reveal: And The Biggest Surprise Was... | CleanTechnica

 

[Artful Dodger]

Could it be that European Gigafactory will be producing cars early 2021? (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D1rU3l5UcAA5NoA.jpg)

I noticed that too. Perhaps final assembly at the new building in Tilburg? Seems too near to 2021 to start a new site now, with enviro assesments and all the permitting...

 

[KarenRei]

GF3 changes in the past week (7 March vs. 15 March). Note the unambiguous foundation work.

Pave, baby, pave.

 

[mongo]

Panoramic glass roof. Isn't this what the Model 3 has, or what am I missing?

No roof cross bars other than at windshield and hatch (single piece glass roof). Much headroom.
(3 is two piece roof, with cross bar near tall driver's head)

 

[schonelucht]

You are being pretty cryptic, could you outline what you are trying to argue? Are you trying to contrast any yes/no/maybe answer against past forward looking statements of Tesla and Elon? I'll give you that voluntarily: Elon walked back his FSD claims a lot in the past years. We might or might not see a coast-to-coast demo this year - but I'm pretty certain it will be with driver supervision.

So what should we do about those that bought the option in 2016-2017 when the communication from Elon and Tesla has always been that unsupervised driving in public traffic is going to be possible with their car?

 

[mad474]

If a Europe factory is going to be starting production in 2 years, would think a location will need to be sorted rather soon given permits, consent time etc before construction.

Wild guess: We've got enough empty factories over here (and will soon have even more ;-)! Europe production will start in an existing factory (and in cooperation ;-).

Cheers!

 

[jerry33]

Do you drive over 195 miles per day?

Not every day, but often enough.

 

[Hock1]

Shortz do not care. They need no reasons, but will occasionally point a finger a one. They were planning a bear raid no matter what happened at the Model Y event. REALLY.

Absolutely correct. The shorts ARE the reason the stock will go down. "Falling demand", and the other FUD are the excuses.

 

[KarenRei]

Point of fact: everyone's FSD predictions have been far too optimistic. Waymo, Uber, Cruise, etc etc etc. We were supposed to have fleets of autonomous taxis with no safety drivers roaming the streets right now. Instead we have geofenced "specific pickup and dropoff spot only" cars with "safety drivers" that have to make some of the turns for them and whose driving annoys residents.

 

[jerry33]

No $1,000 pre-orders, but $2,500 (fully refundable) configurator open. This is a very nice touch, because it allows the measurement of demand for the take rate of actual trims and options. Also de-emphasizes comparisons with Model 3 $1,000 pre-orders.
​

What's the effect for accounting here? Could 50K "orders" mean 125mil more on the plus side of the Q1 balance sheet?

There will also be $125M on the liabilities side, so it's a wash.

 

[MartinAustin]

One such demand lever yet to be pulled is the Model 3 Ludicrous option.

I think that would make sense after a technical upgrade of Model S/X.

Then Tesla would get a whole new round of social media attention with the P3DL outracing all kinds of cars, all of it advertisement for free.

The Model 3 has no height-adjustable suspension yet. Elon tweeted that it would be available. Not sure why it's not yet... but that is also on the list of potential improvements

 

[Sean Wagner]

Or am I overestimating the red tape?

No, you are not.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Doesn't need to be popular. Merely needs to exist. That said, beyond bragging rights and making it clear how big the vehicle is, it is a market expander. No market doubler or anything like that, but it does make the vehicle suitable to a broader range of buyers.

Absolutely

Dan

 

[Fact Checking]

So what should we do about those that bought the option in 2016-2017 when the communication from Elon and Tesla has always been that unsupervised driving in public traffic is going to be possible with their car?

Qualified by "dependent on regulatory approval", right?

 

[jerry33]

As you are probably aware of, no-driver FSD probably won't be legal in the vast majority of jurisdictions for years.

True, but FSD should really cut down on the number of accidents--particularly those arising from medical conditions or falling asleep at the wheel. The one thing I would like to see tested is if the camera can be blinded by the sun and not see the stoplight (same as a human eye--I actually had that happen once, got lucky, no cars in the cross street).

 

[Artful Dodger]

True, but FSD should really cut down on the number of accidents--particularly those arising from medical conditions or falling asleep at the wheel. The one thing I would like to see tested is if the camera can be blinded by the sun and not see the stoplight (same as a human eye--I actually had that happen once, got lucky, no cars in the cross street).

+1 for that! This is absolutely where the car's maps+gps NEED to be informing the AI what to watch for, and to STFD if it can't see it!

 

[Zaxxon]

Lol. No, the 7-seat option is available now, per this screenshot of an order placed today: (and posted upthread)

Cheers!

View attachment 386577

I'm not sure why this is difficult for you. It's not controversial.

 

[jerry33]

ICYM,

here is a comparison bw M3 and MY when both images are superimposed
View attachment 386597

This is what I wanted to see at the reveal. I really had my heart set on an X*, but with the removal of the second row console the X became much less interesting. The extra height of the Y might be just the ticket. (Once I become employed again, grrr).

* I'm not as flexible as I used to be, and my friends are less flexible than I am. They don't like riding in the back of the S all that much due to the uncomfortable shoulder harness and no drink holders.

 

[jhm]

Strong hints this is the first of several loans. There was talk of "Chinese banks" and this is from only one Chinese bank, singular.

OT

I am going to try to stop posting here (the investor forum) for a while. I do so out of an unhealthy compulsion to provide information to people. On the whole, people don't want to learn anything which disagrees with their preconceptions, so I really shouldn't. I've been told this by many wise people: let people believe whatever nonsense they want to believe; practically nobody wants to learn anything, and it'll just be frustration to explain things to 99% of people. They're right. Almost everything I've posted for the last year is a repeat of something which has been posted before, usually many times, by myself or others; I'm just seeing the same misapprehensions over and over again, and there's really no point in discussion. If I do start posting, I shouldn't be doing so.

Thanks and massive props to Brian45011 for being the only person here to disagree with me who really proved me wrong.
Thanks to jbcarioca for genuinely insightful responses on *all* occasions, even to content which moderators are deleting.
Thanks to those who have collected data.
Thanks to many of the rest of you for being interested in analysis.

I'll still be lurking and reading. I just won't post.

Nerode N signing out.

Moderator Test post; ignore please.

Hey, @neroden, I hope you'll keep posting in the shorting oil thread and other threads I've set up. I really appreciate you.

 

[jerry33]

It will happen. Tesla has to have priorities and right now the added market reached by the Model Y has precedent. They can't do everything at once and there will always be someone left waiting. Patience is a cruel thing. lol!

Dan

Correct, but I would have liked to see the grey dots meaning there was at least a plan. No dots, no plan.