Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Drezil]

Ok, so the China nunbers were good, but the 44/45k number which was supposedly corroborated by multiple sources was totally nonsense?

Wish everyone out there on the interwebs (bulls, bears, and media) would stop posting their “rumors from a source”. It’s all hogwash.

There’s just about one remaining inside source I trust, and he has been “Wright” just about every time that I can remember.

Keep in mind the CPCA is "just" a car-dealer-association & their numbers are also guesses. Often more informed & correct, but we won't know until tesla itself presents anything.

To me the difference looks like "did model y got exported or not?". The 45k-number had ~11k m-y exports. CPCA reported 0 m-y exports iirc. One of them is wrong.

 

[Todd Burch]

Keep in mind the CPCA is "just" a car-dealer-association & their numbers are also guesses. Often more informed & correct, but we won't know until tesla itself presents anything.

To me the difference looks like "did model y got exported or not?". The 45k-number had ~11k m-y exports. CPCA reported 0 m-y exports iirc. One of them is wrong.

Good point, these are estimated deliveries, which are probably close but not a complete picture. Production could easily be in the 40k+ range.

 

[jw934]

Ok, so the China nunbers were good, but the 44/45k number which was supposedly corroborated by multiple sources was totally nonsense?

Wish everyone out there on the interwebs (bulls, bears, and media) would stop posting their “rumors from a source”. It’s all hogwash.

posting hogwash in TMC is great, because the quick replies here supported my suspicion and allowed me to confidently buy the “China order is down 50%” dip last Thursday afternoon.

 

[Discoducky]

Keep in mind the CPCA is "just" a car-dealer-association & their numbers are also guesses. Often more informed & correct, but we won't know until tesla itself presents anything.

To me the difference looks like "did model y got exported or not?". The 45k-number had ~11k m-y exports. CPCA reported 0 m-y exports iirc. One of them is wrong.

To me the difference looks like "did model y got exported or not?". The 45k-number had ~11k m-y exports. CPCA reported 0 m-y exports iirc. One of them is wrong.

Exactly where I'm at as well. All we need is one confirmed ship with Y's.

 

[elasalle]

Keep in mind the CPCA is "just" a car-dealer-association & their numbers are also guesses. Often more informed & correct, but we won't know until tesla itself presents anything.

To me the difference looks like "did model y got exported or not?". The 45k-number had ~11k m-y exports. CPCA reported 0 m-y exports iirc. One of them is wrong.

Only market outside NA, China that got MY seems to be Korea
For Korea someone had posted that per trade deals - the us version will be cheaper

 

[H Mak]

If that figure of 33K for May is correct, then that equates to 396K for 12 months for China, which is more than the whole company sold in 2019.

(Yes I know you should never take one month in isolation but please forgive me, I like this big picture stuff)

 

[ZachF]

You’re arguing with Tesla and math, not me.

Tesla stated a 4680 cell has 5X the energy and 6X the power vs a 2170 cell.

That would mean an 80 kWh 4680 pack can put out or receive 20% more power than an 80 kWh 2170 pack.

Receiving 20% more power means it charges more rapidly.

6X power and 5X energy increase is BY DEFINITION a 20% improvement in cell C Rate.

...and that isnt even factoring in the expected superior thermal management properties

 

[ZachF]

Something to think about:

The Plaid has a reported 1020hp (763kw), so if it doesn't have 4680s, it at least has *drastically* altered chemistry/cells, because that's well beyond the level of power that the old Model S battery pack could put out. If it used the old battery pack it wouldn't be able to achieve the figures we've seen because itd be power limited at the pack level.

 

[elasalle]

Looks like a FUD squeeze
SP rising due to distillation of facts

 

[Mengy]

Any serious long-distance traveler can come up with a multitude of terrific journeys that need ===>real<=== range. For as long as the Cybertruck has been in the public eye, I have read countless stories of the trips people hope to take in it. Another hundred or so SpCs in the LA basin, etc., will never, ever enable these trips to come to pass. RANGE is king.

I agree that range is king for road trippers in EV's today, but that is only due to the scarcity of chargers off the interstates currently. As the charging network along minor roads becomes much more fleshed out range will become less and less crucial.

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Tesla FSD Subscription May Feature Options Including 'Weekend Mode' & 'Travel Mode'

The FSD Subscription is a hotly anticipated update that will become available over the next few weeks. At the moment, the company has not provided any details of the feature, however, according to unofficial information, the FSD Subscription will be available for various periods from several days.

www.tesmanian.com

“Tesla may offer "weekend mode" and "travel mode.” While no details have been obtained as to what these actually are, the names hint at what these modes could represent. For those Tesla owners who are accustomed to using FSD in their daily trips, it can be a big problem when they have to travel not in their own car. Therefore, the ability to activate FSD for just a few days would be a big blessing for them.”

“…users will be able to subscribe to FSD for various periods (one week, one month, six months, etc.) Tesla has developed an interesting new subscriptions page that will allow for various customizations, such as enabling auto-renewal, updating billing address/details, downloading PDF invoices, and so forth.”

 

[Pezpunk]

It looks like the 44/45k number fortunately wasn't taken seriously by the market or not widely dispersed, or we would have seen a drop in premarket due to 'disappointing numbers'.

i wish people on this forum were as dismissive of far-fetched unsourced positive news as they are far-fetched unsourced negative news. The delta in skepticism is a vulnerability.

 

[wombat9]

i wish people on this forum were as skeptical of far-fetched unsourced positive news as they are far-fetched unsourced negative news. the bias is a vulnerability.

Exactly, the missmatch on both sides of the spectrum are/were massive. The actual May numbers are within the expectations, so all good here.

Some Tesla supporters on Twitter should just turn on their brains before posting/retweeting and think about what is even possible and what facts are given. On the other side the media should now apologies for their FUD. Oh wait a minute, most of them are corrupt and want to influence, not inform. So unfortunately that will not happen. I learned my lesson and canceled my news subscription long time ago after a poorly written and misleading story about Tesla and Elon Musk.

 

[H Mak]

i wish people on this forum were as dismissive of far-fetched unsourced positive news as they are far-fetched unsourced negative news. The delta in skepticism is a vulnerability.

My knowledge of USA geography is sparse so I am often interested to discover where places are, based on posters' locations. I searched yours, Bristow VA, to find out where you live, and google maps came up with this picture. Is that the EV charger on the right?

 

[lascavarian]

Tesla FSD Subscription May Feature Options Including 'Weekend Mode' & 'Travel Mode'

The FSD Subscription is a hotly anticipated update that will become available over the next few weeks. At the moment, the company has not provided any details of the feature, however, according to unofficial information, the FSD Subscription will be available for various periods from several days.

www.tesmanian.com

“Tesla may offer "weekend mode" and "travel mode.” While no details have been obtained as to what these actually are, the names hint at what these modes could represent. For those Tesla owners who are accustomed to using FSD in their daily trips, it can be a big problem when they have to travel not in their own car. Therefore, the ability to activate FSD for just a few days would be a big blessing for them.”

“…users will be able to subscribe to FSD for various periods (one week, one month, six months, etc.) Tesla has developed an interesting new subscriptions page that will allow for various customizations, such as enabling auto-renewal, updating billing address/details, downloading PDF invoices, and so forth.”

It will be interesting to watch how and when this is launched. This subscription approach stands to Osborn full purchases which will dip the revenue stream.

Activating this option could add a little bump to the quarter if it hits after/if a full purchase dip happens. If the charge is monthly up front, then this subscription revenue from a wave of curious subscribers will tend to give a bump.

Updates revealed to be eminent just as subs renew will tend to hold subs from cancelling. We could see updates coming the 3rd week of the month perhaps.

 

[dww12]

Something to think about:

The Plaid has a reported 1020hp (763kw), so if it doesn't have 4680s, it at least has *drastically* altered chemistry/cells, because that's well beyond the level of power that the old Model S battery pack could put out. If it used the old battery pack it wouldn't be able to achieve the figures we've seen because itd be power limited at the pack level.

And what could be done with the 2170 packs?

 

[agastya]

Something to think about:

The Plaid has a reported 1020hp (763kw), so if it doesn't have 4680s, it at least has *drastically* altered chemistry/cells, because that's well beyond the level of power that the old Model S battery pack could put out. If it used the old battery pack it wouldn't be able to achieve the figures we've seen because itd be power limited at the pack level.

With all the reported leaks, very strongly feel 4680 will be in the Plaids. If they are ready for Austin and Berlin to start Y based production in a few months... Why would they not be used already in low volume products?

Plaid is also reported to deliver peak power from 0, all the way to the top speed. IMHO, that's something could not be possible if it was the 18650.

S/X will continue to use the 18650s, there's no reason to give away a big chunk of cell capacity when being battery constrained.

BD was over 9 months ago, and it was mentioned Tesla was running cars with 4680s back then even. I personally don't expect much on the range front, maybe round out to 420, or go full memelord at 469 - but, showing the world that 4680s are now shipping in cars, beginning with the most expensive cars they make is the most bullish news one could wish for.

 

[st_lopes]

Ok, so the China nunbers were good, but the 44/45k number which was supposedly corroborated by multiple sources was totally nonsense?

Wish everyone out there on the interwebs (bulls, bears, and media) would stop posting their “rumors from a source”. It’s all hogwash.

There’s just about one remaining inside source I trust, and he has been “Wright” just about every time that I can remember.

Seems like all the Twitter rumors and Uber bulls were doing Wholesale + Export = 44/45… which thankfully we actually have clarity on this time around and know the wholesale number is inclusive of export.

It is odd to call it wholesale since TSLA doesn’t actually have wholesale distribution (not a dealership model), but who cares about semantics…

Regardless, excellent numbers in China, debunking the FUD courtesy The Information, and coming ahead of even some of the more level headed « conservative » bulls. I look forward to GoJo’s take.

 

[agastya]

I look forward to GoJo’s take.

Essentially, look... Tesla is a busted growth story.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

The FUD will be easy: numbers are down compared to March. May is up only 29% YoY. No way are they going to get to 50% growth when sales are declining and not that much better than last year.

An AI could write this stuff. Maybe one already is.