Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[BornToFly]

It's going back down.... People! !!!!

 

[daniel]

FSD cost may stay the same for personal use, but maybe they'll take some percentage of all robotaxi revenues? That seems more reasonable.

The comment was made (I forget by whom) that FSD would make the car effectively cheaper because it could generate revenue as a robotaxi. But if FSD costs an additional $8K, that's a big chunk of change to come up with in order to get into the game. Tesla will certainly take a share of revenues, just as Uber and Lyft do. But that's on top of the added cost. I will never use my car as a robotaxi. But I'd pay way more than $8K for sleep-in-the-back FSD. I doubt that Tesla will hold the price down just to grab a share from the small number of people who will go on the robotaxi app. The real money for Tesla will be in charging what the market will bear for the car and the feature.

But then the question is, who do you think is better positioned to do that? Who else has the right approach or the right amount of data to achieve this? Serious question, because I don't think anybody is better positioned than Tesla is. I don't think there's anything wrong with looking at Tesla's potential outside of autonomy and robotaxis, they have plenty going for them. But I also feel Tesla is better positioned for robotaxis than anybody else is.

I have no idea who will get there first. It might be Tesla. But there are plenty of players in the game and the future is notoriously unpredictable. We can talk about data and hardware all we want, but the reality is that we cannot know. We can use the stock market to make bets, and maybe that's what this thread is all about. Me, I just want a car that will drive me around when I'm too old to drive safely. And I don't see that coming any time soon from any company.

I don't think that a car that can drive itself with nobody in it, outside of very limited pre-determined geographical regions is on the horizon. It's coming, but not as soon as some folks think.

 

[Unpilot]

Possible. I just convey what the sign said, but I’ve been hearing from other sources about steel/metal/material shortages in other industries.

It’s a fact that a lot of businesses/factories/mfging companies have been slowed down and/or completely shutdown because of Covid all over the world for close to a year’s time. Some of them have been put permanently out of business.

It’s a fact that many products ran out of stock entirely and even now haven’t caught up.

I’m preparing for my mountain build, the costs and supplies available of a lot of products is currently compromised. Wood product prices are through the roof and continue to rise. Steel prices are up as well but the pricing has temporarily leveled off.

So, your theory is possible but I’m not buying it as the main issue.

I wanted to tag this as informative..but can't on my phone for some reason....new update only has like button.

And I don't like it.

 

[asburgers]

Ark Webinar:

Some of the relevant Q&A:
Q: How do you stay calm when markets drop, and when do corrections not create great buying opportunities?
Cathie: With exception of great depression, history of market suggests that averaging down have worked well for people. During risk off, sell lower conviction stocks (creating losses) against future gains of adding high conviction stocks. Ark's conviction is "innovation solves problems". Ark knows that long term returns are galvanized during risk off periods - what they do during downturn will have biggest impact on long term returns. Most portfolios move closer to benchmarks during downturns (benchmarks typically hold mature companies) ignoring growth

Q: Mutual Fund vs ETF wrapper
Cathie: Lots of misinformation around, will have webinar to set things straight. A lot of ETFs are passive, ARK is not. What sets ARK apart is that they are interested in talking to the engineers and learning about technology (which is rare in this space)

Q: As more and more companies enter EV space, why is TSLA still in the lead?
Sam: Look at range in EV (TSLA is at least 3Y ahead of comp). Harder to measure metrics: Plans to ramp up cell manufacturing itself as opposed to waiting for industry to catch up.
Tasha: Autonomous - think they could be a leader in this space. Unique approach to solving problem. Most recently FSD Beta over the weekend sounds like it will be available to all Tesla owners over time as opposed to small group. Other than newer players in Asia with smaller fleets, TSLA is the only company that can pull data from customer fleet. WAYMO and AUTOX are first two robotaxis, think TSLA will be next. Valuation update should be out in the next couple of weeks.

Q: Solar...
Sam: Utility scale solar is more economic than residential. Potential is with integration of photovoltaics (like solar roof). Even though traditional solar panels are coming down in cost, balance of system costs (ie. installation) makes it uneconomic for most of the US. These costs are hard to bring down (low tech). However, with photovoltaic roofs, they incorporate more tech and can actually be better at bringing costs down.

Q: Why is ARK so open (transparent)
Cathie: 1) Pushes out research as it is being completed because they want to engage with community. Sharing dialogue helps. 2) Trading - ETFs generally have to disclose every day. It's not too difficult to reverse engineer ETF transactions. This has grown very popular as people are interested in what an innovation team would think is a good purchase or sale - especially during difficult times. More detail in a week or so in a webinar.

Closing Remarks: Last 2 weeks have broadened bull market out - healthy measure. "Truth things out" and keep an eye on the prize.

 

[st_lopes]

I wanted to tag this as informative..but can't on my phone for some reason....new update only has like button.

And I don't like it.

If you hover on the like button you should get a popup that gives you the option of all the reactions. It's a little sensitive on iOS, because it tries to select the text under the pop up panel, but it works.

 

[Krugerrand]

I wanted to tag this as informative..but can't on my phone for some reason....new update only has like button.

And I don't like it.

Just hold the like for a second and you’ll get a menu of symbols from which to choose from.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

how could a large cap stock move +20% in a single day is beyond me.
must be the greatest recovery of all time.
if only I had grabbed one of those bottle of Teslaquila to celebrate this beautiful day

Money is perhaps not only a value-store or a trade medium, but perhaps also information streams. Yeah, I know, it is a very abstract way of looking at money.
As investors we process information (emotions are also information) and money is our medium of communication.

Tesla the company, and TSLA the stock has always been controversial , a least in the ˝ 7 years I have paid any attention.
So another way to interpret these wild swing is that people as a large group change their minds *a lot* about Tesla/TSLA - and very quickly too!
It could also mean that re. Tesla/TSLA the information spread/advantage is larger than most companies/stock. Which, to us TMC'ers make perfect sense.

I try to think of a group of investors who are more gung ho than our group here: Perhaps Apple-investors 10 years ago, in the early iPhone days. Maybe race-track enthusiasts/gamblers...!
Not saying it is all good to be gung ho, but ... at least it fires you up and make you want to spend a lot of time trying to learn about technology and on keeping track of the company. And that can, potentially, be good because it (hopefully) increases your information advantage.

The idea of 'money as information' can also predict that if certain huge shifts in perception and/or reality takes place, wild swings in TSLA will occur. From personal experience, many family members and friends don't really believe that self-driving is possible - its either 'not in my lifetime' or 'never'. I don't believe these persons are stupid but the way they see the world is more static and not in tune with big innovations . They are not stupid, but just old-fashioned.

I like the phrase 'mind blown': When your reality is shattered is can have profound consequences on how you act.
So, should a large number of the hoi polloi suddenly experience self driving that works and is safe, we may expect their minds to be blown. Another mind-blowing series of events would be the start of mars colonization. Even though not Tesla related, it is Musk-related.

So, as more and more people change their world view to become more Tesla aware and Musk aware, we can expect them to follow the ideas and emotions by communicating via money as well.

 

[dl003]

Just hold the like for a second and you’ll get a menu of symbols from which to choose from.

The forum getting upgraded really shows who's not an avid Facebooker.

 

[Norwalk79]

I have some common sense about FSD levels, lacking in practical details:

1) The level 5 is only applicable if every car on the road is also running FSD level 5. If there are 2 guys racing on the street, lost control and hit your car at very high speed, the FSD cannot react fast enough. Only human can foresee the accident and change lane to avoid ahead. If there is a sudden accident on freeway, all lanes are closed/jammed, only human can look for a clear lane/shoulder to get out of freeway.

2) I would not trust my life on a piece of SW. Any SW will require a lot of revision to correct/improve, then there is computer glitch/crash.

3) The FSD is helpful for the following cases: too sleepy/too tired/too drunken (DUI), too old/too weak to drive, paralyzed from the hip down. As Tiger Woods injured both of his legs requiring surgery in a single car roll-over to a hill side, he definitely needs Tesla EV with FSD to prevent a costly accident. This Tesla is also needed for millions of DUI drivers, handicapped and seniors need a ride to doctor appointment, markets….

4) The bottom line is human supervision is always needed, except too sleepy/too tired/too drunken (DUI), in these cases FSD is required to bring you safe home without killing yourself or others.

 

[Norwalk79]

Tesla FSD and reckless skateboarders

While testing the latest version of FSD Beta, the Tesla approaches an intersection with a green light, then you see a group of skateboarders rolling through the intersection towards the Tesla on both sides of the road. It doesn’t get more reckless than that.

Fortunately for the skateboarders, the Tesla’s sensors “saw” the group, slowed down, slightly turned away from one skateboarder coming at it, and even momentarily stopped for everyone to pass. Once the group passed, the Tesla continued on.

Tesla FSD Beta Defeats Reckless Skateboarders in San Francisco

Tesla FSD SW $1.5B Revenues:

Munster estimates the electric vehicle maker will recognize $1.1 billion in deferred software revenue in 2021 from its Supercharger network, internet connectivity, and full self-driving (FSD) features and over-the-air (OTA) software updates. The number will increase to $1.5 billion in 2022

Tesla’s deferred revenue next year can account for about 20% of GM’s operating income today and 200% of Ford’s,” the Loop Ventures analyst wrote.

FSD, Driver Of Revenues: Munster is of the opinion that FSD is the driver of revenues for the Elon Musk-led automaker. The analyst assumes that both FSD revenue and vehicle deliveries will grow by 40% annually.

Tesla's Big Advantage Over Legacy Automakers? Software, Says Munster

 

[Joe F]

I have some common sense about FSD levels, lacking in practical details:

1) The level 5 is only applicable if every car on the road is also running FSD level 5. If there are 2 guys racing on the street, lost control and hit your car at very high speed, the FSD cannot react fast enough. Only human can foresee the accident and change lane to avoid ahead. If there is a sudden accident on freeway, all lanes are closed/jammed, only human can look for a clear lane/shoulder to get out of freeway.

2) I would not trust my life on a piece of SW. Any SW will require a lot of revision to correct/improve, then there is computer glitch/crash.

3) The FSD is helpful for the following cases: too sleepy/too tired/too drunken (DUI), too old/too weak to drive, paralyzed from the hip down. As Tiger Woods injured both of his legs requiring surgery in a single car roll-over to a hill side, he definitely needs Tesla EV with FSD to prevent a costly accident. This Tesla is also needed for millions of DUI drivers, handicapped and seniors need a ride to doctor appointment, markets….

4) The bottom line is human supervision is always needed, except too sleepy/too tired/too drunken (DUI), in these cases FSD is required to bring you safe home without killing yourself or others.

You appear to be assuming that AI can't learn that which you define as required by human supervision only. I believe you need to rethink what's possible, especially given what the experts believe. Fancy a game of go?

Also, you, as a human, can not possible react to everything happening around you as well as a properly equipped vehicle can, especially not as fast. Unless you have eyes in the back and side of your head.

Granted, as of Right Now, your position is correct, and I share it as well. But, advances happen quickly. Keep your eyes on the road 100% of the time, for now.

 

[DaveG_NJ]

My IRA is admittedly not diversified, but this is a good day (maybe the 2nd out of the last 30).

 

[WattsHappening]

The forum getting upgraded really shows who's not an avid Facebooker.

I have no idea what you're talking about.

 

[jerry33]

I have some common sense about FSD levels, lacking in practical details:

1) The level 5 is only applicable if every car on the road is also running FSD level 5. If there are 2 guys racing on the street, lost control and hit your car at very high speed, the FSD cannot react fast enough.

It's really the human that can't react fast enough--even if he or she notices the racers (which will be quite far away at the time when evasive action is required).

 

[Mike Smith]

People 25 to 34-years old plan to invest half of their stimulus checks in stocks, according to a survey from Deutsche Bank

Combined, all age groups surveyed will allocate 37% of their stimulus checks to stocks, for a potential inflow of $170 billion, according to the bank.

markets.businessinsider.com

Direct deposits start arriving later this week. Guess which stock they're going to buy...

 

[HG Wells]

People 25 to 34-years old plan to invest half of their stimulus checks in stocks, according to a survey from Deutsche Bank

Combined, all age groups surveyed will allocate 37% of their stimulus checks to stocks, for a potential inflow of $170 billion, according to the bank.

markets.businessinsider.com

Direct deposits start arriving later this week. Guess which stock they're going to buy...

ONE share of TSLA if they are lucky.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Guys I'm sure glad we got into the S&P 500 and volatility is now a thing of the past...

 

[jerry33]

ONE share of TSLA if they are lucky.

It only takes a million people with one share to make a dent.

 

[15Peter20]

It’s look like we are doing the GameStop clone. This is one in a lifetime chance to damage the stock market shorts for good so we can invest successfully for our family and our children. Every time Market go up for one day, the shorts attack the very next day because all buyers have bought their shares, so no one is around to protect the share price.

So dear Tesla comrades: the shorts have been shorting all over the market, particularly the EV stocks. They are vulnerable for consistent buying because they have to buy back borrowed shares at higher price. Tell everybody to keep fighting for this final battle.

Good luck to all. Cheers

I think you mean

 

[StealthP3D]

The forum getting upgraded really shows who's not an avid Facebooker.

I dislike Facebook intensely. It's what you would get if you took the stream of consciousness of a Millennial and tried to code it into a digital society. A cohesive thought is a terrible thing to waste. Let's simplify everything into good/evil, like/dislike, rich/poor, happy/sad, smart/dumb and on/off.

This was my original problem with Facebook but it has grown into a much bigger problem. Anyone who hasn't seen "The Social Dilemma" on Netflix needs to watch it now. This may seem off-topic but watching this documentary will make you smarter and a better investor. Some of the early techies featured in the show have insane clarity and wisdom about this. People who created social media and understand exactly how it works and what it's effects are. No one should live in the 21st century without being aware of this.

THIS post is being kept up but all the follow-up "Yeah! Me, too!" useless ones have been massaged with extreme prejudice.~~~