Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

I find it a bit odd that they announced this early if they were so close to 500k deliveries... if they had waited to sunday night or even monday morning, wouldn't it have been possible to get a more finalized number that would actually break 500k?

I almost want to say that they intentionally wanted to announce below 500k for whatever reason....

I believe that is the most likely case - not because I'm eternally optimistic but because your reasoning is sound and also because it fits with Elon's new way of doing things. In recent quarters he has shown signs of adopting the "under-promise, over-deliver" mindset.

But the details hardly matter since this story has transitioned from one where the focus was on the exact number of cars produced and how long Tesla's cash/solvency would hold out and moved onto the bigger picture of growth rate, decreasing costs of production/increasing margins and the growth of adjacent businesses (solar, energy storage, autonomy).

Those wanting another crazy bull run of any size will have to wait for another catalyst.

 

[woodisgood]

I put the Fear Of The Mod in her now, didn’t I!

It was a pretty good rant indeed.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

Finally a journalist that sees the real story.

That was pretty good for a writer previously from the fossil fuel beat. Interesting take for the Journal. I’ve seen a mixed bag of articles out there today, not the usual 80% negative rate.

 

[woodisgood]

That was pretty good for a writer previously from the fossil fuel beat. Interesting take for the Journal. I’ve seen a mixed bag of articles out there today, not the usual 80% negative rate.

Power of S&P right there. The real antagonists will be more clearly marked.

 

[petit_bateau]

Your assumption the annual growth rate will be close to constant from .5M to 20M is wrong. The rate will be much higher in earlier years and decline later. For example, there is no way to grow from 12M-13M to 20M in just one year.

Absolutely, which implies S-curve growth

On the other hand, annual volumetric growth could be fairly consistent at somewhere between 2M-3M per year.

It might on the one hand be consistent with peak growth of 3m/yr, sustained for several years. Or it might be a higher sustained rate (5m/yr) or a lower rate.

A lot depends on the extent to which the other OEMs get their sh1t in one sock, and start transitioning at scale. At the moment there is a plausible scenario that has TSLA and VAG ending up at 30m/yr production each, with all the rest fighting over the scraps.

It is interesting to watch.

 

[FireMedic]

Where is the name Model 2 coming from? Surely it’ll be the Model A.
S3XY
CARS
Cybertruck, A, Roadster, Semi

No?

I think the ATV is supposed to be the A. I foresee a model A and model F. SEXY AF CARS

 

[CanadaEV]

I know exactly how everyone feels.
Missed my bitcoin target by a lousy $0.3!
Why can't anything ever work out right?

 

[StealthP3D]

No regrets or sickening feeling here, given that I'm in the group you're referring to. Can't speak for anyone else, but rebalancing into other income-generating assets can be a perfectly rational decision even when bullish. It's a game of probabilities, and not everyone has the highest possible expected value as their primary objective.

It doesn't sound like you are in the group I referred to at all, you are in the same group I'm in. A couple months ago I sold 20% of my TSLA because it had completely taken over my brokerage account. I refrain from rebalancing too early or too extensively but fully recognize when it can make good sense. I also sold 5% on the last day of the year (@$715). I'm still so far overweight TSLA it's not funny. The difference between the group you and I are in, and the group I spoke of, is the latter planned to buy back for less but watched it zoom away.

You and I do not plan to add more Tesla to our positions (although I probably would if a black swan event decimated the share price because then I would be rebalancing in the opposite direction). But, in general, I try to rebalance at times and in amounts that it won't be necessary to re-buy. Of course any traditional money manager looking at what I'm calling "re-balancing" would just be shaking his head. Everyone's situation will be different.

I'm sorry if I didn't make that clear.

 

[ggr]

Yeah, something's wrong with the IPO system: no retail investor can ever buy shares at that price.

My CAGR is based on TSLA's Closing Price on it's first day of trading, July 2nd 2010.

Retail HODL'rs actually COULD have those gains. Paging @Krugerrand and a few others I think...

Cheers!

Oh, OK. But I will point out that a number of people here did get shares at the IPO price. You just had to have a Roadster and an order for a Model S at the time. <---

 

[lukex4]

I hope Tesla adjust the number of deliveries by +30...

 

[15Peter20]

I think the ATV is supposed to be the A. I foresee a model A and model F. SEXY AF CARS

Model 4 next then I reckon.

S3XY CARS 4
????
PROFIT

Damn, too many ‘R’s. And ‘?’s.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Rebecca Elliot of WSJ with a nice first article (refreshing after the hack we had before):

Elon Musk Steers Tesla to Record Deliveries

Good for her. For those of you in the Twitterverse, it might be good to give her kudos there.

 

[jerry33]

Oh, OK. But I will point out that a number of people here did get shares at the IPO price. You just had to have a Roadster and an order for a Model S at the time. <---

Yup, perfectly matches the average Robinhood investor.

 

[Tachyon]

"A" is already taken by the Tesla ATV.

I suggest model Z
S3XYCARSZ

 

[gene]

Since today is my birthday, I think that is why Tesla announced deliveries.

 

[UncaNed]

I am a retail investor but I guess one of the newer/poorer one. So really apprehensive of dropping 15k on a single leap. Earlier I chased the call options while the IV was high and I ended up selling at a loss. So trying to find what tricks the option guys are doing to breakeven/make more money.

As I understand a call option price depends stock price, IV and time premium. So, the March23 Leaps price will depend on these two but not time, since it is so far into the future. So, I can afford to buy a single call at cheaper price if SP and IV, both drop in a short period. Hope. But trying to learn from the pro's.

Where do you check the leverage?

I dunno exactly, but the brokerage I use said that if you want a farther OTM (higher strike price, and therefore cheaper premium price) - to call them and they can forward the request to the Chicago-something-or-other and there's actually a good chance of getting it added to the option chain. I don't know if this is useful information.

 

[LN1_Casey]

I suggest model Z
S3XYCARSZ

They already have the S on the end of CAR, so a Z doesn't make sense.

I think they'll go for 2 or Too, as in Too S3XY CARS.

 

[Dutchie]

Since today is my birthday, I think that is why Tesla announced deliveries.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY!

 

[CorneliusXX]

I suggest model Z
S3XYCARSZ

Surely we can make it SEXY CZARS?

 

[kcveins]

OTM call options are a good way to go broke. Made a good amount on TSLA stock through 2013, lost most of it on OTM 1 and 2 year LEAPs when the stock didn't go anywhere for about 3 years and those options kept expiring worthless.

What could have been if I'd just kept my 1000 shares at the end of 2013...I'd be retired 15+ years earlier than I'm likely to retire now.

Exactly my experience... except I lost more than you and this was all in my Roth IRA which made it more painful.
If I had kept all of it in shares, I would be nicely retired now on a sandy beach or on the top of a mountain
Fortunately I was able to salvage some of the money in early 2015 before the price dropped to nothing and was able to get a few shares that will allow me to attain my target for retirement in another doubling..