Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Lessmog]

... ...


I fully expect one day the negative narrative around Tesla will disappear, short sellers will have lost their money, car dealers will be out of business, Fossil Fuel companies will be extinct, legacy auto will be trying desperately to survive. The push back will be Tesla is too successful , too dominant and too powerful, some countries will try to protect their auto industry from Tesla and Chinese competition.

If there is any legacy media around to "eat these stories up", they are slowly becoming less relevant and less able to move the market.
This isn't a risk that bothers me, yes it might happen from time-to-time, but we have similar stories now about accidents driving on Autopilot.

As to the decline of Fossil Fuel, just this week the largest oil refinery in Sweden, Preemraff, decided to cancel the planned buildout of the facility outside Lysekil (not far from here) due to dwindling demand for primarily jet fuel, I believe. Preem is pretty well advanced in biofuels such as "pine diesel", but they had felt a need to process heavier petroleum fractions as those are no longer going to be sellable as bunker oil.

It may also have played some role that the Green Party is dead against the expansion and threatened to leave the governing coalition over the issue ... but the company stated that the decision was made strictly on commercial grounds; they had permission from the highest national legal authority, based on EU law.

 

[lascavarian]

Since we have so many investors here, many of whom are frighteningly undiversified outside of Tesla.... How do you move past the inevitably that during the pursuit of FSD, Tesla will have crashes and deaths.

Diversification is a separate issue IMO.

Investors in Westinghouse/Tesla/AC did well even though Edison was frying elephants in the town square to generate fear. Technology comes hand in hand with risks and costs. A cow and a fossil fuel lantern nearly burned a whole city(Chicago). The world could have chosen to be afraid of AC but the benefits soon became undeniable.

FSD will change the world by bringing the benefits of robotics/AI into the daily life of the common person as I see it.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I’m a bit surprised by lack of volume/lack of speculative buying ahead of Q3 delivery numbers. Q3 results started the turn around last year.

Lately have been wondering how much of a "beat" effect we could get out of ~144k deliveries when two dozen fanboys have been regularly retweeting Troy's numbers and Gary Black sends out 5 messages a day about the same.

I get that the Factset numbers are still a bit lower, but it used to be that TMCers had a much better guess at deliveries due to the amazing work of some of our contributors, while the analysts were clueless. Now, it's all out there, this will be less of a surprise.

 

[ThisStockGood]

OT:

Diversification is a separate issue IMO.

Investors in Westinghouse/Tesla/AC did well even though Edison was frying elephants in the town square to generate fear....

Probably not accurate. This article states otherwise:
Topsy the Elephant Was a Victim of Her Captors, Not Thomas Edison | Smart News | Smithsonian Magazine

 

[Tslynk67]

Lately have been wondering how much of a "beat" effect we could get out of ~144k deliveries when two dozen fanboys have been regularly retweeting Troy's numbers and Gary Black sends out 5 messages a day about the same.

I get that the Factset numbers are still a bit lower, but it used to be that TMCers had a much better guess at deliveries due to the amazing work of some of our contributors, while the analysts were clueless. Now, it's all out there, this will be less of a surprise.

TBH, I don't see why it has to be a "beat" over an estimation, much more important is the comparison with the same quarter last year, which was 97k deliveries. Tesla getting close to 500k deliveries by the end of the year, that's much more interesting.

In any case, I'm not so sure how much attention Wall Street analysts pay to Twitter, but you don't need to be a genius to subtract the deliveries so far in 2020 from Tesla's guidance to come with a value around 140k - in fact given the production constraints, "beating" any estimate would be close to impossible - the only wildcard being potential MYC MY towards the end of the year...

 

[JBRR]

Walmart Canada more than triples order of Tesla Semi Trucks

MISSISSAUGA, ON, Sept. 29 2020 /CNW/ - Walmart Canada is more than tripling its reservations of 18-wheeler Tesla Semi trucks as it drives towards its commitment to alternative power.

Walmart Canada is now reserving a total of 130 Tesla Semi trucks, making it one of the largest reservations of electrified trucks in the country. The move comes on the heels of Walmart Canada announcing a major $3.5 billion investment over the next five years aimed to generate significant growth in the business and is aligned with Walmarts global goal to target zero emissions by 2040 announced at Climate Week earlier this month.

The $3.5 billion investment will impact every aspect of the business leading to a faster e-commerce experience, two new distribution centres to speed up the flow of products, re-invented and "smarter" stores, an enhanced omni experience and modern digital tools to ensure associates can best serve customers.

Walmart Canada has built a best-in-class supply chain and is continuing to put sustainability at the forefront of its business operations, finding new and innovative ways to reduce its carbon footprint while continuing to focus on safety and delivering value to its customers. Walmart Canada is committed to converting 20 per cent of Walmart's fleet to electric power by the end of 2022, as part of the goal of its broader goal to power its fleet using 100 per cent alternative power by 2028.

Walmart Canada more than triples order of Tesla Semi Trucks

 

[jerry33]

how is it that analysts ranked in the absolute bottom of their peer rankings get so much air time and importance in MMM

Presumably because they're the only ones that can be found to support the negative views.

 

[aubreymcfato]

I had the chance to write a whole page in a national (Italian) newspaper about Tesla battery day.
I tried to underline the importance of batteries, single-point-of-failure of the electric transition.
And explained Wright's Law.

Hopefully some folks will be interested in what Tesla is doing, beyond clicbait headlines.

 

[jerry33]

Since we have so many investors here, many of whom are frighteningly undiversified outside of Tesla.... How do you move past the inevitably that during the pursuit of FSD, Tesla will have crashes and deaths. This will be true during beta, while the driver is still technically responsible and afterwards when the vehicle is responsible. Mathematically speaking, there will be crashes and deaths no matter how good FSD is because no matter how many "nines" they get, crashes and deaths will always be > zero. The media will unfortunately eat these stories up. Just wondering what this inevitably does to our portfolios?

I doubt it will be significant. We got through the "fire era" when Tesla was a much weaker company. Tesla Energy is poised to become a real juggernaut and will likely dwarf Tesla Automotive.

 

[Khamul]

Tesla is trying to mine its own Lithium after dropping M&A plan

"Tesla held discussions in recent months with Cypress Development Corp., which is seeking to extract lithium from clay deposits in southwest Nevada, but the parties didn’t reach a deal"

 

[SPadival]

Walmart Canada more than triples order of Tesla Semi Trucks

MISSISSAUGA, ON, Sept. 29 2020 /CNW/ - Walmart Canada is more than tripling its reservations of 18-wheeler Tesla Semi trucks as it drives towards its commitment to alternative power.

Walmart Canada is now reserving a total of 130 Tesla Semi trucks, making it one of the largest reservations of electrified trucks in the country. The move comes on the heels of Walmart Canada announcing a major $3.5 billion investment over the next five years aimed to generate significant growth in the business and is aligned with Walmarts global goal to target zero emissions by 2040 announced at Climate Week earlier this month.

The $3.5 billion investment will impact every aspect of the business leading to a faster e-commerce experience, two new distribution centres to speed up the flow of products, re-invented and "smarter" stores, an enhanced omni experience and modern digital tools to ensure associates can best serve customers.

Walmart Canada has built a best-in-class supply chain and is continuing to put sustainability at the forefront of its business operations, finding new and innovative ways to reduce its carbon footprint while continuing to focus on safety and delivering value to its customers. Walmart Canada is committed to converting 20 per cent of Walmart's fleet to electric power by the end of 2022, as part of the goal of its broader goal to power its fleet using 100 per cent alternative power by 2028.

Walmart Canada more than triples order of Tesla Semi Trucks

* The first 4680 cells from the Kato road line will go to the Semi (100% confidence)

I am surprised

 

[Tslynk67]

Tesla is trying to mine its own Lithium after dropping M&A plan

"Tesla held discussions in recent months with Cypress Development Corp., which is seeking to extract lithium from clay deposits in southwest Nevada, but the parties didn’t reach a deal"

Indeed and they've inked the deal with Piedmont to allow them time to develop the clay extraction process. Anyone here think they won't succeed?

 

[Tslynk67]

I am surprised
View attachment 593325

Indeed, as battery "yield" allows, build another Semi "prototype" and get it out there to one of the big clients.

What we miss though, is the MegaCharger, although conceivable, routes with SuperChargers along the way might be enough for initial deliveries.

 

[BETA1019]

Moved over from the Twittersphere. Already recognize some names. Good to be here.

 

[dc_h]

You what?

To the UK. With their tax break policy demand in UK is very high. They should be breaking records there.

 

[22522]

Jeebus, is this real? 30K Americans die every year in auto accidents? What's that do to people's portfolio's? Who's paying for that outrage?

Tesla is working to solve the actual problem. Not coddle investors with cash. Jeep Cherokee.

When I looked a while ago, over half were alcohol related. BTW, I categorize alcohol related fatalities as something other than accidents. Lost a dozen friends in my lifetime to this.

Only lost 4 friends to literal murders.

 

[jerry33]

Indeed and they've inked the deal with Piedmont to allow them time to develop the clay extraction process. Anyone here think they won't succeed?

I doubt they would have inked the deal if there wasn't at least a working prototype.

 

[dc_h]

He is saying that 2 of these delivered Teslas to the UK this quarter...

Roll-on/roll-off - Wikipedia

Exactly, thank you.

 

[dc_h]

Lately have been wondering how much of a "beat" effect we could get out of ~144k deliveries when two dozen fanboys have been regularly retweeting Troy's numbers and Gary Black sends out 5 messages a day about the same.

I get that the Factset numbers are still a bit lower, but it used to be that TMCers had a much better guess at deliveries due to the amazing work of some of our contributors, while the analysts were clueless. Now, it's all out there, this will be less of a surprise.

Everyone here and on Reddit and Robinhood knows, but Wall Street and business news peeps could be shocked.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

Please swing by Buffalo along the way. Everyone could take in Niagara Falls and my wife and I could join the convoy.

Only if yours has a Zubaz wrap and a bed full of folding tables.

Spoiler

Go Bills