Since we have so many investors here, many of whom are frighteningly undiversified outside of Tesla.... How do you move past the inevitably that during the pursuit of FSD, Tesla will have crashes and deaths. This will be true during beta, while the driver is still technically responsible and afterwards when the vehicle is responsible. Mathematically speaking, there will be crashes and deaths no matter how good FSD is because no matter how many "nines" they get, crashes and deaths will always be > zero. The media will unfortunately eat these stories up. Just wondering what this inevitably does to our portfolios?
The real issue is of FSD gets regulatory approval and is safer than an human driver, even past that point the "march of nines" continues.
Working FSD boosts the share price in multiple ways:-
- Increased take rate of FSD and recognition of revenue.
- Tesla network income
- Increasing appeal of Tesla cars.
Financially the positives more than cancel out the occasional negative.
In terms of the preservation of human life the argument is the same, any death is unfortunate, but fewer deaths and injuries are highly desirable. There is a difference between prefect and significantly better.
I fully expect one day the negative narrative around Tesla will disappear, short sellers will have lost their money, car dealers will be out of business, Fossil Fuel companies will be extinct, legacy auto will be trying desperately to survive. The push back will be Tesla is too successful , too dominant and too powerful, some countries will try to protect their auto industry from Tesla and Chinese competition.
If there is any legacy media around to "eat these stories up", they are slowly becoming less relevant and less able to move the market.
This isn't a risk that bothers me, yes it might happen from time-to-time, but we have similar stories now about accidents driving on Autopilot.
