Tesla Model S CPO Website - Now Live

[Drucifer]

Only things I have been able to discern, and some of this is trends and patterns. You would have to do multivariate regression analysis to figure out the formula for real.

1. Price drops significantly with increased miles and earlier date of service.
2. Options vary between being valuable and worthless or in between in the model. Mostly options are steeply discounted in the used market more than the base car is.
3. Green, Brown, White and Pearl cars seem to be cheaper than Black, Blue, Grey, Silver and Red cars.

Transport costs for that will likely be $1000.

 

[HankLloydRight]

My VIN is 15xxx (w/tech package) and I don't have folding mirrors, so you can't go by VIN alone.

I've been trying to come up with a formula Tesla uses to price the CPOs. But I can't seem to come up with any logic.
Consider these two cars,

I used to do it all the time, but I don't have time to sit down and figure it out, but someone should be able to do a multiple regression analysis on all the options/features/mileage, etc to come up with an approximation at a formula.

But I suspect the CPO price is highly correlated with the price Tesla paid to take the car in trade, and that may have differed greatly between people, timing, policies, etc. So who knows if there is any formula you can apply?

 

[kuttakamina]

1. Price drops significantly with increased miles and earlier date of service.
--- And the chicago car (cheaper) has 12K fewer miles.

2. Options vary between being valuable and worthless or in between in the model. Mostly options are steeply discounted in the used market more than the base car is.
--- Agreed, which is what makes CPO so attractive. If I get new, I would not get high end sound system and air suspension. Another thing I've noticed, the "P" part costs you a lot when you get new, but resale viz, not so much. The S60s are depreciating the best.
--- Still in this case, both cars are similarly optioned.

3. Green, Brown, White and Pearl cars seem to be cheaper than Black, Blue, Grey, Silver and Red cars.
--- Okay that makes sense, even though Pearl White costs 750+ out the gate compared to grey . Personally I prefer grey. Still doesn't justify the price difference.

Thanks for your answer. I'm googling mutivariate regression analysis, on a saturday morning.

 

[Drucifer]

Warning on the statistical analysis is that HankLloydRight may have a point. There may be an element of "random walk" in this or even regional differences that may make discerning a pricing model difficult.

 

[kuttakamina]

But I suspect the CPO price is highly correlated with the price Tesla paid to take the car in trade, and that may have differed greatly between people, timing, policies, etc. So who knows if there is any formula you can apply?

I've been manually comparing lots of cars on CPO.
There is indeed a lot of randomness that could save you up to $5K if you do your homework.
$5K to me is worth putting in the effort for (I'm not a richie rich).

Not to mention, by end of this year, you will see some D's show up in CPO also.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Hank you need to put a little paypal donation button on your site. Something that says "If you like this site buy me a beer!" I'd kick you $5 for saving me hours of time trying to navigate that terrible Tesla CPO site. I'm sure plenty of others would too. You probably won't get rich from said button, but you'd surely pick up some decent bar money. (or enough for some nice dinners at least).

/edit Or if you're too modest, donate the funds raised to a noble charity and earn yourself some karma points.

Good idea.. while I am a 100% capitalist, love money, and have the MBA to back it up, I will find a charity and add a link to the CPO Consolidator by Monday.

Some things I do for income, and other things just for fun. This was totally for fun and to give back to the community, so that's my reward.

But if it can raise a few dollars for people or causes who really need it, that's even better.

 

[kuttakamina]

#1. Washington DC: 85 kWh Performance Model S P08188 | Tesla Motors - 30K miles, 19" wheels, matte, grey, dual chargers $72K
#2. Chicago: 85 kWh Performance Model S P05357 | Tesla Motors - 17.5K miles, 21" wheels, carbon fiber, pearl white $67.4K

The Chicago tesla sold .. .. I guess it WAS a good deal. Congrats to the new owner, whoever it is.

 

[TomServo]

Chicago just added about 15 vehicles since Thurs. I read they had 90+ pre-owned vehicles so maybe they take time to get them ready to list.

I'm looking for a particular MS and while there are a few that are close I think many more will start showing up coming off early leases. Good time to be in the market for a Tesla.

 

[MsElectric]

My VIN is 15xxx (w/tech package) and I don't have folding mirrors, so you can't go by VIN alone.


I used to do it all the time, but I don't have time to sit down and figure it out, but someone should be able to do a multiple regression analysis on all the options/features/mileage, etc to come up with an approximation at a formula.

But I suspect the CPO price is highly correlated with the price Tesla paid to take the car in trade, and that may have differed greatly between people, timing, policies, etc. So who knows if there is any formula you can apply?

I think you are going to have a really hard time with this as you are missing a key ingredient, the original in-service date. I suppose you can use the VIN number with a look up table that maps a VIN number to an approximate date range...

- - - Updated - - -

Are you sure? Folding mirrors were introduced at P12142 (ref: http://my.teslamotors.com/en_EU/forum/forums/power-folding-mirrors-retrofit-price-12002400-euro-16003200)
Either way, it still doesn't justify the price difference. The wheels alone are $4500 more.
Plus folding mirrors IMO are in the same category as the mercedes headlight wipers.
They will probably break down the road, they suck in winter, and I don't mind hand-folding them when I need an extra 2" on a 50 feet wide car (rare!)

Anyway, your point withstanding, folding mirrors even if they are there, still don't justify the price difference.

I saw both cars listed and you are absolutely right. Perhaps Tesla paid more for one car than the other. With CPO cars people who don't do their research might end up paying more for a less desirable car. Also not everyone knows about The Great Consolidator so they might just look locally and buy what is available locally to them.

Given that nicely optioned 2013 P85s are available for the late 60s someone paying a lot more than that is likely paying more than they have to.

 

[kuttakamina]

I think you are going to have a really hard time with this as you are missing a key ingredient, the original in-service date.

Yes, but both are/were 2013. 5-10 years later when I go about selling a used Model S, believe me, nobody will care about the month the car was put in service. It'll all be about it's a 2013 Model S with the following miles - and ooh I like or dislike the options.

IMO, the price difference of 4K is worth saving .. esp for better options. I'm such an astute buyer :tongue:

 

[HankLloydRight]

I think you are going to have a really hard time with this as you are missing a key ingredient, the original in-service date. I suppose you can use the VIN number with a look up table that maps a VIN number to an approximate date range..

That's why I said I wasn't doing it. I'll let someone else give it an attempt. Besides, as mentioned above, actual in service date would be a minor factor, if a factor at all,

 

[3mp_kwh]

I've been trying to come up with a formula Tesla uses to price the CPOs. But I can't seem to come up with any logic.

I posted a poll, on miles/age/options. So far, answers surprise me.

The locations are different

If we’re going to have fun with stats, I think this is the answer. It calls for a multi-factor model, run first within each region. Otherwise, I think correlations would get too weak, or noisy.

1. Will Tesla consider adjusting the price, considering their own prices are in conflict?
2. What do you think will be the transport cost from Chicago to DC? I live in DC, so the other issue is, I am not going to buy the car without being able to see it in person.
3. What is the condition of the tires on the CPOs? Do they put new tires on like other dealers do?
4. A general question - is the build quality of the newer 2015 cars better than older cars?

1 – Doubt it. Not if they won’t give pictures. Call it a “no communication” discount.
2 - $1,000
3 – I’ve heard “as new”, from DS, as has at least one other. No feedback on 32nds.
4 – Too open ended a question. Little things like wipers and headrests were improved, with the AP cars. Does that make older build quality “worse”?

I bet the program generally goes well, but it is only a matter of time before a bad car(s) create a challenge. Tesla takes care of its owners. If you don’t own one, call that an understatement. That said, they don’t communicate and get lots of slack for things, like horizontal wood grain (website), where the 2013 dash boards all have it vertical. Even Ebay can be tough on that sort of thing.

 

[ahurst]

So one issue I've discovered is with P85 and P85+. How can I find the original MSRP to gauge the level of discount?
With an 85, I simply build it on the website, knowing it's not exact, but close.

 

[Cyclone]

So one issue I've discovered is with P85 and P85+. How can I find the original MSRP to gauge the level of discount?
With an 85, I simply build it on the website, knowing it's not exact, but close.

Personaly, cost compared to what it was new is irrelevant in my opinion. A better comparison is what you would pay for equivalent (85D and P85D), or what you desire (any current Model S). The choices you are making is which one to buy, not which one to send a message into the past and tell the prior owner they will be selling for a big drop in the future.

For my car, my Owner Advisor found some details for my car from original purchase just because I was curious. That said, deciding to buy it was comparing the price of the CPO car to the cost of a 70D without air suspension. With the savings over even that purchase, it was worth it to me to buy my CPO.

 

[ahurst]

Personaly, cost compared to what it was new is irrelevant in my opinion. A better comparison is what you would pay for equivalent (85D and P85D), or what you desire (any current Model S). The choices you are making is which one to buy, not which one to send a message into the past and tell the prior owner they will be selling for a big drop in the future.

For my car, my Owner Advisor found some details for my car from original purchase just because I was curious. That said, deciding to buy it was comparing the price of the CPO car to the cost of a 70D without air suspension. With the savings over even that purchase, it was worth it to me to buy my CPO.

How do I find the range and performance data for P85 and P85+?

 

[vvanders]

If I remember correctly the P85 and P85+ are identical power and range with the major difference being in the suspension.

Current benchmarks have the 85D and P85 pretty close in power it mostly comes down to your preference in range, AWD vs RWD and handling.

 

[Fiver]

Is the CPO consolidation site that Hank built not updating? There hasn't been a change since Friday. I'm sure some cars sold over the weekend....

 

[HankLloydRight]

Is the CPO consolidation site that Hank built not updating? There hasn't been a change since Friday. I'm sure some cars sold over the weekend....

yeah, I've been meaning to look into that today.

Yes, it appears to be updating normally every hour.

I found one car that was mis-coded in Chicago and not listed, P33083, which is now displayed.

Other than that, the Consolidator seems to match what's on the CPO website.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Just had two price changes:

==========> Price change P09593: from $67,650 to $67,100
==========> Price change P38257: from $82,000 to $79,500

 

[tga]

Is the CPO consolidation site that Hank built not updating? There hasn't been a change since Friday. I'm sure some cars sold over the weekend....

Sort by date (newest first) shows three cars added today, 1 yesterday.