JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I think it's quite real, I just don't think it's the miracle the press seems to be trying to make it, since the energy density seems weak.
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Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread
- Thread starter teddyg
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Well whatever it is their US office is just across the bridge from Fremont. No Doubt Tesla has had the first opportunity to look at it.
One were thing from a science perspective, not sure how much exothermicity there is in a NCA redox reaction or whether thing could possibly be endothermic on discharge.
In the absence of weird, unless it has zero internal resistance it would be a bit hard to support a claim of it never getting hot.
Take a spin through the Battery Tech thread on this forum, dating back a long way. There are many miraculous new battery techs, at least one per quarter, that are going to make Tesla's battery tech obsolete. Going from the lab bench to production scale is hard and slow. I wish them all well, but Tesla cannot wait until one of these comes to fruition.
Nor do they need to. Current formulations can produce GENIII. And some tweaks to that chemistry can exceed those expectations. Furher, the next formulations can easily become part of the next implementation and a cost retrofit. I agree, we are there with the correct deployment of current and imminent technology. Ditto with PVC Solar by the way. The next years are going to be incredible.
Getting closer
Japan's Panasonic Corp said on Wednesday it's examining U.S. electric automaker Tesla Motors Inc's plans for a lithium battery factory before the electronics firm decides how much to invest in it.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014...00320140521?feedType=RSS&feedName=mergersNews
More details in a WSJ article titled Panasonic Says Tesla Investment Won't Be a Risky Gamble (google & search it, its behind a paywall)
Japan's Panasonic Corp said on Wednesday it's examining U.S. electric automaker Tesla Motors Inc's plans for a lithium battery factory before the electronics firm decides how much to invest in it.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014...00320140521?feedType=RSS&feedName=mergersNews
More details in a WSJ article titled Panasonic Says Tesla Investment Won't Be a Risky Gamble (google & search it, its behind a paywall)
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chickensevil
Active Member
Yeah, note the key difference here. They said "before the firm decides how much to invest" this is most definitely no longer a question of if, but now to what level of investment! Hopefully the two companies can come to a mutually beneficial agreement that makes a better and cheaper product for the consumer
From the WSJ article:
"We will make sure to carry out investments one step at a time in line with demand," said Yoshio Ito, Panasonic's senior managing executive officer who heads the automotive unit."
This is what I was expecting, specifically that Panasonic's investment could be in various steps along the way and they could be re-assured by various milestones that Tesla would reach (ie., 50k Model S run rate, 100k Model S/X run rate, etc).
WSJ - Are Tesla's Plans for a Giant Battery Factory Realistic?
Can some of our battery experts comment on this harsh assessment that appeared in Wall Street Journal a few days ago?
Below are a few quotes from the article by a research Professor from Northeastern Univ.
May 18, 2014 4:46 PM
WSJ By YULIYA CHERNOVA
Are Tesla's Plans for a Giant Battery Factory Realistic?
K.M. Abraham is a research professor at the Northeastern University Center for Renewable Energy Technology, has worked for 30 years on lithium battery technology, was one of the first to demonstrate rechargeable lithium batteries and invented next-generation lithium air batteries.
"I don't see how they can reduce the cost more than 20%."
"We are already reaching the limit on the energy density you can get in the lithium-ion battery. Next-generation chemistries, such as lithium air, are another 25 years away from commercialization."
"It won't be as simple as it has been so far. We'll need scientific discoveries in the electrode materials. Usually, from invention of battery materials to production it takes 15 to 20 years, and we haven't invented it yet."
Can some of our battery experts comment on this harsh assessment that appeared in Wall Street Journal a few days ago?
Below are a few quotes from the article by a research Professor from Northeastern Univ.
May 18, 2014 4:46 PM
WSJ By YULIYA CHERNOVA
Are Tesla's Plans for a Giant Battery Factory Realistic?
K.M. Abraham is a research professor at the Northeastern University Center for Renewable Energy Technology, has worked for 30 years on lithium battery technology, was one of the first to demonstrate rechargeable lithium batteries and invented next-generation lithium air batteries.
"I don't see how they can reduce the cost more than 20%."
"We are already reaching the limit on the energy density you can get in the lithium-ion battery. Next-generation chemistries, such as lithium air, are another 25 years away from commercialization."
"It won't be as simple as it has been so far. We'll need scientific discoveries in the electrode materials. Usually, from invention of battery materials to production it takes 15 to 20 years, and we haven't invented it yet."
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Disclaimer: I'm not a battery expert, but I have followed Tesla very closely for quite som time.
He is obviously talking on this matter as a researcher/Professor. I would think that even though he is very knowledgable when it comes to the chemistry and engineering og batteries he does not have the full picture when it comes to the production chain and the enormous benefits Tesla can get from economics of scale, better deals with suppliers, in-house production of subcomponents, anode, cathode and electrolyte and any other improvements that can be done to the whole production process. If Elon and JB say they can reduce cost 30% I believe them more than this outsider who just puts his finger in the air and says "20% maximum". JB and Elon know all the details, he does not. They know how and where they can cut costs and improve efficiency.
Tesla will produce the same batteries they have today in the Gigafactory. There will be small iterations over time, but noone at Tesla has spoken of a sudden jump to a new chemistry. I don't know what this has to do with anything. Today's batteries can already do the job. I'm all for better batteries in the future (lighter, denser, safer etc.) but that's not what the GF is for primarily.
He is obviously talking on this matter as a researcher/Professor. I would think that even though he is very knowledgable when it comes to the chemistry and engineering og batteries he does not have the full picture when it comes to the production chain and the enormous benefits Tesla can get from economics of scale, better deals with suppliers, in-house production of subcomponents, anode, cathode and electrolyte and any other improvements that can be done to the whole production process. If Elon and JB say they can reduce cost 30% I believe them more than this outsider who just puts his finger in the air and says "20% maximum". JB and Elon know all the details, he does not. They know how and where they can cut costs and improve efficiency.
Tesla will produce the same batteries they have today in the Gigafactory. There will be small iterations over time, but noone at Tesla has spoken of a sudden jump to a new chemistry. I don't know what this has to do with anything. Today's batteries can already do the job. I'm all for better batteries in the future (lighter, denser, safer etc.) but that's not what the GF is for primarily.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Plus there are a number of different versions of li ion with higher density that are showing promise before we get to li air.
This thread: Tesla CTO on Energy Storage: ‘We Should All Be Thinking Bigger’ links to this article: Tesla CTO on Energy Storage: : Greentech Media
Really great article:
-Gigafactory "breaking ground in the next few weeks."
-"Lithium-ion battery technology would dominate 'for five, maybe ten years.'"
-"2 megawatt-hour battery pack has been helping to manage loads at the Fremont Tesla factory, managing 10 percent of peak demand...will be expanded to 4 megawatt-hours in the next three to four months."
-"400 kilowatt-hour battery pack at the Tejon Ranch supercharger."
Really great article:
-Gigafactory "breaking ground in the next few weeks."
-"Lithium-ion battery technology would dominate 'for five, maybe ten years.'"
-"2 megawatt-hour battery pack has been helping to manage loads at the Fremont Tesla factory, managing 10 percent of peak demand...will be expanded to 4 megawatt-hours in the next three to four months."
-"400 kilowatt-hour battery pack at the Tejon Ranch supercharger."
Great article, thanks for posting.
"He said that there will be improvements in cathode, anode and electrolyte materials, but that for the next five or ten years, things will look pretty much the same. There was little reason to battle about the size of the cell or the 18650 form factor, in the CTO's view. The improvements to the cell will come with better anode and cathode material, not with the shape and size of the cell."
Straubel also said he was bullish that stationary energy storage "can scale faster than automotive."
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
Like almost every business they want maximum return for minimum investment.
Remember Panasonic's original assessment of Model S sales prospects in 2011?
1000 units per year for a total seven year run. 7k units through the 2018 model year.
ElectricAvenue
Member
Can someone tell me how I can invest in the GigaFactory?
I have tried to find the answer in this sea of threads but cannot find it.
Is the a way for the individual investor yet?
Thanks
I have tried to find the answer in this sea of threads but cannot find it.
Is the a way for the individual investor yet?
Thanks
It appears it will be established by Tesla, who will have partners (Panasonic is one we know of at this point). I do not believe they will be setting up a separate company to 'own' it that you can invest in. So, investing in Tesla appears to be the best way to get 'in' on the Gigafactory. Some are investing in Mining companies that mine the materials needed for the battery production but that is VERY speculative. Others are investing in Panasonic. For my money (and do your own research as I could be wrong) if I wanted to invest in the factory I would buy TSLA.
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