Not product demand issues, but demand charges, aka absurd prices charged for commercial/industrial consumers that don't use electricity in a very steady way.
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Tesla Class 8 Semi Truck Thoughts
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I get it. It's a short lived problem, because a) energy is going to get cheaper as more renewables are installed and b) those most affected will figure out short term workarounds.
You can be sure whatever solution tesla is developing takes into consideration concerns like even peakier loading.
Electric would save money no question but what you are leaving out is logistics. FedEx and UPS have drivers that drive hundreds of miles (some over 600 miles/day). You might say well give the driver with the shortest route the electric truck. The problem with that is logistics. The day you put a delivery person in a electric Truck is the day that a rural area will need help and you have to bring that person back to the terminal to get a different vehicle because the electric vehicle doesn't have enough range.
Tony Williams 7mpg is VERY optimistic. I drive truck and just yesterday I drove 295 miles one way and averaged 6mpg. That was is good weather too. Assume 5mpg and that would cover the worst conditions. I'm very skeptical that this is feasible for the majority of trucks. Like I've said before the truck should have a rated range of 700-800 miles and the possibility of being charged to 80% within 30 minutes. Short of that they won't be feasible except for niche applications.
I don't think you "get it". So far busy supercharging stations with solar panels don't produce 30% of what they consume in the best day of they year, dropping to perhaps less than 10% in the worst days (depending on latitude).
I hope Tesla eventually takes a 12 stall supercharger station and cover 36 parking spots worth of solar canopies.
The trend moving forward is no net metering. If you over produce, you're lucky if you're paid 1/3 of what it would cost to buy back that power. There will be bi directional metering, but not net kWh.
Of course with a huge battery pack, they might never sell electricity and concentrate buying electricity in off off peak hours that will supply them all day long consumption, with a little electricity buying at day time (but still not peak demand) hours.
But do not assume grid electricity is getting any cheaper except for off peak hours. Its not.
Net metering is great for those that have solar panels. For grid operators its a big loss.
The situation in California where citizens are making very effective pressure at grid regulators isn't a national norm.
But even then, at some point the numbers for the grid operators they'll tell the regulators help us or we'll go out of business.
thegruf
Active Member
Think I can guess at why semi's first and not trucks and vans.
Tesla are manufacturing constrained more than battery constrained.
Semi's will sell in lower volumes but need more batteries than "delivery" vehicles.
This is more achievable at the current stage in Tesla's evolution.
It also furthers Elon's aim to demonstrate the workd can move to zero emission transportation, if you can do the small stuff and the really big stuff, then the in-between is just a matter of capacity.
Tesla are manufacturing constrained more than battery constrained.
Semi's will sell in lower volumes but need more batteries than "delivery" vehicles.
This is more achievable at the current stage in Tesla's evolution.
It also furthers Elon's aim to demonstrate the workd can move to zero emission transportation, if you can do the small stuff and the really big stuff, then the in-between is just a matter of capacity.
I've had plenty of electric delivery vans drop stuff off to me. I can't remember if I've seen a UPS branded EV truck, but certainly other firms have been using them for a while. The first one I remember seeing was back in 2015 from TNT.
TNT introduces electric express delivery vehicles in Amsterdam and Rotterdam | Welcome to TNT's corporate website, offering company news and information for investors, press, and other stakeholders
Not sure why it would be different in Europe specifically the UK. Maybe it's in part due to "zero emission zones" being introduced in many UK cities over the next few years?
As a slight P.S. Here we already have a fleet of EV busses too
Tesla may swing for the fences with their truck, but I do think the local delivery truck is the low hanging fruit. Solid state lithium batteries are currently still in the lab and won't see production for another decade, but they might be the necessary to make over the road long distance semis viable.
Delivery trucks are very doable with existing technology. The only issue today would be building enough batteries to supply a mass market delivery truck (which is going to need a lot more cells per vehicle than something like the Model 3). That will take time and money to build, but those are just problems that require resources thrown at them.
Delivery trucks are very doable with existing technology. The only issue today would be building enough batteries to supply a mass market delivery truck (which is going to need a lot more cells per vehicle than something like the Model 3). That will take time and money to build, but those are just problems that require resources thrown at them.
True, which is why those type of vehicles are either available already (Smith Electric Vehicles) or soon to be available: Daimler: Electric Delivery Trucks, Vans on the Way for U.S.
Doesn't mean that Tesla won't build something like that but i think that they want to do something that have a bigger impact on the market. Something that's "accelerating the advent of sustainable transport". And if semis works, well, then all other type of road transports can be electrified.
One problem is the trailers don't necessarily belong to the same people who own the tractor unit.
Then you have individual axle weight limits, as well as total vehicle weight limits. So let's say it's hauling standard shipping containers, then a fully loaded container might have been dropped off by a non-battery enabled trailer, and cannot be forwarded on by a battery-enabled one without the trailers axle weight exceeding legal limits, causing logistical problems with a mixed fleet.
TBH I think a far better solution would be electrification and expansion of train networks to more distribution hubs, with the "last mile*" being done with EV delivery trucks.
It's actually quite common now when using track and trace for me to see international shipping items going via here: Daventry International Rail Freight Terminal - Wikipedia
With extensive railroad electrification, and the channel tunnel linking us all the way through to mainland Europe via international rail lines, it is perfectly feasible if this route is taken for a parcel to have been collected in say Italy and arrive two days later at my doorstep 2000+ miles away in the UK, having been transported solely using electricity. This isn't in some off promised future, but actually happening today!!! (And actually quite impressive if you think about it).
(* in this context I mean 50-100 miles)
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In the US that the rail/truck combination doesn't usually work because the rail network is running at capacity most of the time. US rail was failing in part due to over capacity 30 years ago. Containerized freight helped bring it back, but what pushed it to capacity was the Japanese auto makers discovering it was cheapest to ship cars to Europe by putting them in containers and shipping them by rail across the US, switching to/from ships on the US coasts. Other Asian manufacturer's followed suit and now a lot of domestic freight is forced onto trucks the whole way because there just is no room on trains.
I used to see trainloads of UPS trailers, but I haven't seen any in a while. I don't know for sure, but they may have been forced off the US rail network by other freight. Since Fukashima I have seen a lot more trainloads of coal going west. To go anywhere we need to cross the BNSF main line that goes trough town. We get stopped by a lot of long trains.
@wdolson For sure it's a complicated topic, and the way US rail networks are funded, different mix of freight to passenger make up, etc. etc. all blur the mix.
I would argue though as we are "blue sky thinking", and capital investment levels be ignored, as a model for an electric transportation network we have proof it can work. I guess it depends how you look at it. Building a similar system in the U.S. as a piece of "generational infrastructure" is a worthy goal, even if the payback is multiple decades long.
A good modern example here is the channel tunnel. It was only possible through public expenditure, and cost a fortune. Many of the politicians that signed off on it have passed away, long before it broke even, but my great great grand kids will have the benefit of it's use.
As Tesla's stated aim is sustainable transportation, maybe they should start "Tesla Trains", starting with line between Sparks and Fremont
I would argue though as we are "blue sky thinking", and capital investment levels be ignored, as a model for an electric transportation network we have proof it can work. I guess it depends how you look at it. Building a similar system in the U.S. as a piece of "generational infrastructure" is a worthy goal, even if the payback is multiple decades long.
A good modern example here is the channel tunnel. It was only possible through public expenditure, and cost a fortune. Many of the politicians that signed off on it have passed away, long before it broke even, but my great great grand kids will have the benefit of it's use.
As Tesla's stated aim is sustainable transportation, maybe they should start "Tesla Trains", starting with line between Sparks and Fremont
@wdolson For sure it's a complicated topic, and the way US rail networks are funded, different mix of freight to passenger make up, etc. etc. all blur the mix.
I would argue though as we are "blue sky thinking", and capital investment levels be ignored, as a model for an electric transportation network we have proof it can work. I guess it depends how you look at it. Building a similar system in the U.S. as a piece of "generational infrastructure" is a worthy goal, even if the payback is multiple decades long.
A good modern example here is the channel tunnel. It was only possible through public expenditure, and cost a fortune. Many of the politicians that signed off on it have passed away, long before it broke even, but my great great grand kids will have the benefit of it's use.
As Tesla's stated aim is sustainable transportation, maybe they should start "Tesla Trains", starting with line between Sparks and Fremont
Long distance passenger rail in the US is a tiny percentage of rail traffic. Only 7 routes have more than 1 million passengers a year. People tend to fly or drive. Though there already is an Amtrak route that runs from Chicago to Oakland, CA (a city just north of Fremont) and passed through Reno, NV, it's called the California Zephyr.
One of the things I was thinking about recently is how little people are willing to pull together for the common good these days. The government used to tax people to build things for the common good. Now there is quite a bit of resistance to the idea of the government spending money on anything that benefits anyone (except it seems those who are already rich).
The millennials seem to be more interested in the common good and when they get into power this trend may turn around, but I'm not sure there will be much commitment to large scale public works until that happens.
I've often pondered if it's a side-effect of the 'Net. Communication between the general populous, rather than through the gatekeepers of government or large media houses with agendas. Certainly a couple of decades ago we wouldn't be having these sorts of conversations, and millennials have grown up with it.
It's an often used phrase between the UK/US: "Two nations separated by a common language", and when it comes to politics this is certainly true. I'd consider myself quite right wing from a UK perspective, but I suspect in the US I'd be seen as a liberal. Over time will we see more of a political convergence as the communication barriers are broken down? My guess is we will.
I believe in personal responsibility, and the ability to advance oneself, but that sometimes capitalism can't take up all the slack due to fairly short-term investment return windows.
A heated debate is going on here around one government transport project. Not only is the investment huge (£56bn), but the fact it is government backed means they can force people to sell land or relocate houses (the later being particularly controversial), which would be impossible for a corporation to do.
High Speed 2 - Wikipedia
We live in interesting times!
thegruf
Active Member
^ HS2 - waste of money - should lead the way in technology and do hyperloop for this for quarter the price.
A huge feature of the Tesla semi will be its autopilot be capable of safe tail gating of other Tesla vehicles. A convoy of 10 semis driving less than a meter from each other makes the trailing ones save hugely on electricity while the front isn't penalized one bit. Vehicles would talk to each other telling when they're breaking/shifting speed miliseconds before the action is physically taken, so the trailing vehicles can slowdown / accelerate to keep safe.
This could mean a savings of half the energy per mile or even more.
Out of a sudden in special conditions a 350 mile range semi could drive 600 miles non stop, assuming they do like cyclists, where periodically the trailing vehicle moves to the front, shifting the burden of being the lead vehicle.
This could mean a savings of half the energy per mile or even more.
Out of a sudden in special conditions a 350 mile range semi could drive 600 miles non stop, assuming they do like cyclists, where periodically the trailing vehicle moves to the front, shifting the burden of being the lead vehicle.
The economics of Class 8 trucks are that either they max out on weight or they max out on volume. Most max out on weight but a few, such as furniture vans, max out on volume. So for most, every kg that is part of the vehicle weight is lost revenue on every single trip. When the batteries required weigh less than the engine and transmission, and either give similar range or a very fast way of battery swapping (with the appropriate infrastructure in place), every freight company will jump on electric class 8 trucks.
Think bigger. The problems of the future won't be solved with solutions of today.
thegruf
Active Member
@GSP didnt mean to infer the channel tunnel should have been hyperloop (technology wasnt there anyway) and actually I didn't think that project was a waste of money, HS2 from London to North England though is a different matter altogether.
The difference to the channel tunnel is that hours were taken out of the journey time, plus the huge journey simplification of not requiring ferries, in the case of HS2 a few 10's of minutes saving which is much less defining.
Just to get this back on topic - GBP 58Bn for HS2 (London - Manchester/Leeds) = appx $72Bn (plus at least 50% inevtiable cost overrun) - $100Bn is a lot of Tesla semis.
In other words - is that sort of expenditure on a traditional rail solution sensible in the light of emerging new technologies such as "smart" ev road freight quite possibly forming active road trains resulting in massively more efficient transport and use of roads and hyperloop
imho Elon/Telsa are moving transport technology forward so fast that governments are increasingly outdated in their thinking.
The difference to the channel tunnel is that hours were taken out of the journey time, plus the huge journey simplification of not requiring ferries, in the case of HS2 a few 10's of minutes saving which is much less defining.
Just to get this back on topic - GBP 58Bn for HS2 (London - Manchester/Leeds) = appx $72Bn (plus at least 50% inevtiable cost overrun) - $100Bn is a lot of Tesla semis.
In other words - is that sort of expenditure on a traditional rail solution sensible in the light of emerging new technologies such as "smart" ev road freight quite possibly forming active road trains resulting in massively more efficient transport and use of roads and hyperloop
imho Elon/Telsa are moving transport technology forward so fast that governments are increasingly outdated in their thinking.
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