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Tesla Class 8 Semi Truck Thoughts

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I've often pondered if it's a side-effect of the 'Net. Communication between the general populous, rather than through the gatekeepers of government or large media houses with agendas. Certainly a couple of decades ago we wouldn't be having these sorts of conversations, and millennials have grown up with it.

It's an often used phrase between the UK/US: "Two nations separated by a common language", and when it comes to politics this is certainly true. I'd consider myself quite right wing from a UK perspective, but I suspect in the US I'd be seen as a liberal. Over time will we see more of a political convergence as the communication barriers are broken down? My guess is we will.

I believe in personal responsibility, and the ability to advance oneself, but that sometimes capitalism can't take up all the slack due to fairly short-term investment return windows.

A heated debate is going on here around one government transport project. Not only is the investment huge (£56bn), but the fact it is government backed means they can force people to sell land or relocate houses (the later being particularly controversial), which would be impossible for a corporation to do.

High Speed 2 - Wikipedia

We live in interesting times!

The changes we've seen are probably a mix of a lot of factors. I have seen how insanely right some people have moved because of Fox News in the US. But the internet has also allowed mono-cultures to form where people just communicate with people who have similar opinions to them.

My family is/was Republican and I grew up with it. But it was what is now called Eisenhower Republicanism. A fairly libertarian social view mixed with fiscal conservatism. The Republicans have become the complete opposite over the last 30 years. Socially there are quite a few Republicans who want to turn the US into a theocracy and even though they still talk about fiscal responsibility when they get into power, that usually isn't what they do. I've become very disgusted with the American right.

Generally I believe in personal responsibility too, but there are always some people who, through no fault of their own, can't make it on their own.

A meme has cropped up in the US to make government much more like business, but the two are fundamentally different with fundamentally different goals. One reason Donald Trump is floundering is because government and business are two different animals. There may be some lessons from business that could be incorporated into government on a case by case business. But the "business model" for government is fundamentally different.

Governments are the only entity that can do big things that won't have a direct payoff for a while. But ultimately many big works projects do help the overall economy which in turn raises tax revenue. The US is still benefiting from many big projects done to put people back to work in the 1930s. Just one example: Los Angeles can only exist because of major water projects of the 1930s that brought water there from other places. Having a city that large in Southern California would be impossible otherwise. If something catastrophic were to happen to any of the major water sources into Los Angeles, the region would be in crisis within weeks. Much worse than the drought.
 
I am a Model S owner and I run a waste management firm in the NYC area. I am watching this with great interest and I would love to convert my fleet to electric vehicles. NYC continues to increase the regulations on diesel emissions and this would solve a lot of problems. There is someone out west playing with an electric garbage truck and he claims he only uses 85 kWh a shift. NYC is a completely different animal, and my trucks get between 1 and 3 MPG on diesel because they use most of their fuel to run the mechanics of the compaction equipment.

I am guessing that a truck will need at least 300 kWh battery to complete a shift, and probably 500 kWh in the winter. My bigger concern is the charging infrastructure. Say my fleet of 28 trucks uses 300 kWh each per day. You realize the electric service required to charge all those trucks in a 12 hour period that will happen at peak times during the day, because the trucks operate at night. I already have Coned calling me to cut back usage on hot summer days. The wiring in NYC is also really old, and I get 30 less volts on my Tesla charging versus my home in Long Island. If this is the future, the government has to step up to the plate with the infrastructure needed.
 
I am a Model S owner and I run a waste management firm in the NYC area. I am watching this with great interest and I would love to convert my fleet to electric vehicles. NYC continues to increase the regulations on diesel emissions and this would solve a lot of problems. There is someone out west playing with an electric garbage truck and he claims he only uses 85 kWh a shift. NYC is a completely different animal, and my trucks get between 1 and 3 MPG on diesel because they use most of their fuel to run the mechanics of the compaction equipment.

I am guessing that a truck will need at least 300 kWh battery to complete a shift, and probably 500 kWh in the winter. My bigger concern is the charging infrastructure. Say my fleet of 28 trucks uses 300 kWh each per day. You realize the electric service required to charge all those trucks in a 12 hour period that will happen at peak times during the day, because the trucks operate at night. I already have Coned calling me to cut back usage on hot summer days. The wiring in NYC is also really old, and I get 30 less volts on my Tesla charging versus my home in Long Island. If this is the future, the government has to step up to the plate with the infrastructure needed.
(I'm skipping efficiency losses here, to keep the math easier) 28 trucks * 300 kWh = 8,400 kWh. Assuming 14 hours to charge (24 hours 8 hour shift minus 2 hours just cause), that's 600kW. Just over 4 supercharger circuits worth. That's a lot of electricity. And a lot of emissions displaced if you ever achieve it!
 
I agree about Tesla needing a really aerodynamic/efficient tractor-trailer design. Cummins estimates a tractor trailer needs ~175hp at ~55mph, and a tractor trailer with their version of full aerodynamic treatment needs ~150hp at ~55mph (page 6 and 7 of this pdf).

http://cumminsengines.com/uploads/docs/Secrets of Better Fuel Economy_whitepaper.pdf

The SuperTruck program was able to cut aero drag in half, which looks to be ~120+hp at 55mph based on the Cummins graph. If Tesla can cut misc power requirements by ~50% and rolling resistance by ~15%, they'd be at ~100hp @55mph.

Driving A SuperTruck - Article - TruckingInfo.com

~100hp-hr is ~75kWh, so a SuperTruck style tractor trailer with 400 miles of range would need ~600kWh of batteries. That won't cut it for a person driving long-haul, but I'm guessing it'll work for shorter routes.

I think Tesla can probably improve on the SuperTruck's aerodynamics a bit, but the bigger bang for their buck would be autonomous convoys. The reduction in aero drag from drafting could increase range for the convoy to ~1 mile per kWh of battery capacity. If Tesla's supercharger density is high enough, even if they're governed to 55mph, these trucks might be able to do ~1000-1200+ miles per day because their drive time isn't limited to 11 hours per day. At that point they might be able to compete with some long haul trucking.

The economics aren't too bad either. 600kWh of batteries at $150/kWh is ~$90,000. If these trucks can drive ~150k miles/year, they'll amortize the cost of the battery pack within 2 years compared to the average truck on the road at 7mpg and diesel at $2.50/gallon.
 
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I am a Model S owner and I run a waste management firm in the NYC area. I am watching this with great interest and I would love to convert my fleet to electric vehicles. NYC continues to increase the regulations on diesel emissions and this would solve a lot of problems. There is someone out west playing with an electric garbage truck and he claims he only uses 85 kWh a shift. NYC is a completely different animal, and my trucks get between 1 and 3 MPG on diesel because they use most of their fuel to run the mechanics of the compaction equipment.

I am guessing that a truck will need at least 300 kWh battery to complete a shift, and probably 500 kWh in the winter. My bigger concern is the charging infrastructure. Say my fleet of 28 trucks uses 300 kWh each per day. You realize the electric service required to charge all those trucks in a 12 hour period that will happen at peak times during the day, because the trucks operate at night. I already have Coned calling me to cut back usage on hot summer days. The wiring in NYC is also really old, and I get 30 less volts on my Tesla charging versus my home in Long Island. If this is the future, the government has to step up to the plate with the infrastructure needed.

If Tesla sold you 28 trucks, perhaps they would sell you 10MW powerpack at a discount, so you could charge all night, and recharge the trucks through the Powerpack system. You get bogo electrons (buy one get one free) by charging at night, and you are putting in a cleaner charge to your trucks as they roll back in, and ConEd gets to even out their power delivery, making any capacity improvements more economical.
 
In a discussion I saw about automated vehicles, the interviewee said that with autonomous driving most local delivery traffic can be in the middle of the night instead of during the day. He talked about during the Los Angeles Olympics they got most of the truck traffic off the road during the days by getting them to do their thing at night during the Olympics. It vastly improved traffic in the city.

If a lot of trucks become automated plus electric, many could charge during the day during peak sunlight. But there would still be need to charge at night for trucks that had to be on the road during the day.
 
Most of the local trucking companies in southern CA currently try to move trucks/cargo in and out around current traffic patterns. When I worked on the docks, we were busiest from about 8pm till maybe 6am because that's when traffic was the best. Some stuff would still get moved out later in the morning, but the dock was usually a ghost town by 10-11am, and wouldn't only start to really fill up later in the evening.
 
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I am a Model S owner and I run a waste management firm in the NYC area. I am watching this with great interest and I would love to convert my fleet to electric vehicles. NYC continues to increase the regulations on diesel emissions and this would solve a lot of problems. There is someone out west playing with an electric garbage truck and he claims he only uses 85 kWh a shift. NYC is a completely different animal, and my trucks get between 1 and 3 MPG on diesel because they use most of their fuel to run the mechanics of the compaction equipment.

I am guessing that a truck will need at least 300 kWh battery to complete a shift, and probably 500 kWh in the winter. My bigger concern is the charging infrastructure. Say my fleet of 28 trucks uses 300 kWh each per day. You realize the electric service required to charge all those trucks in a 12 hour period that will happen at peak times during the day, because the trucks operate at night. I already have Coned calling me to cut back usage on hot summer days. The wiring in NYC is also really old, and I get 30 less volts on my Tesla charging versus my home in Long Island. If this is the future, the government has to step up to the plate with the infrastructure needed.

Have you checked out this company?
Wrightspeed Range-Extended Electric Powertrains
The founder was with Tesla in the early days. They specifically target retrofitting sanitation trucks and they have what seems to be a practical hybrid solution now.
 
@cdub I actually worry about that quote.

As others have pointed out the semi market is driven by one thing, cost. Tug of wars and sports car handling are not high up on the list of the buyers.

If Elon had mentioned autonomous smart road trains saving operator costs, or significant lifetime reduction in fuel costs exceeding the upfront capital outlay, then it would seem far more in line with commercial success.
 
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Every big rig owner I have ever known loves to show off what it is capable of doing.

None of the big rig owners I know believe that autonomous vehicles will replace drivers in the near future.

I think that ultimately, they will really enjoy showing off their autonomous big rigs that can tow other big rigs uphill.
 
@cdub I actually worry about that quote.

As others have pointed out the semi market is driven by one thing, cost. Tug of wars and sports car handling are not high up on the list of the buyers.

Power comes from the battery pack and you could probably run a semi on a 100 kWh pack. So i'm not worried about that, performance is "free" since they'll need a very large pack, i'm guessing >= 1000 kWh.
 
Power comes from the battery pack and you could probably run a semi on a 100 kWh pack. So i'm not worried about that, performance is "free" since they'll need a very large pack, i'm guessing >= 1000 kWh.

You could run a semi on a 100KWh pack, but not very far. A semi is going to have an efficiency around 1500 Wh/Mi. The Model S is around 3 mi/KWh (333 Wh/Mi), though the EPA rating is around 280 Wh/Mi. A 100 KWh pack would only get you around 75-100 miles of range. That would be OK for a yard tug moving trailers around a warehouse, but it would only be useful for very short haul applications.

1000 KWH would get you up into a very decent range around 750 miles, which is a day's driving for most long haul trucks. Though a 1000KWh pack would be very expensive at even the projected prices a few years from now. If batteries were $90/KWh, which some might say is ambitious for 2020, that's $90,000 just for the batteries.

Without some kind of breakthrough to make batteries significantly cheaper than they are now, long range electric semis are going to be expensive. A new Kenworth T680 (their long haul truck tractor) costs between $135K and $150K new. It's going to be tough to be price competitive with a truck that has a $90,000 battery. Even with just a 500 KWh battery, that's going to cost $45-$50K ($90-$100/KWh).

With a truck the economics are a completely different matter than with a personal passenger car. Ultimately if it is more cost effective, companies will go for it. Electric is cheaper, but the rate of return on the fuel cost over time is what will be the deciding factor. I updated my chart on fossil fuel costs vs electricity costs for EVs. I highlighted the fossil semi truck and the EV semi costs. I'm not sure what diesel costs these days, but the gas station I drove by yesterday was $2.97 for regular. In the Northwest supercharging is $0.12/KWh, but it's more expensive in California.

At $3 a gallon for fuel, a 6 MPG truck costs $0.50/Mi to run and the EV at $0.12/KWh costs $0.18/Mi to run. That is close to a 3:1 savings and it might be worth it for a truck that's going to cost a lot more in initial outlay. We'll have to see what Tesla's final price on their semi will be. For a truck run 100,000 miles a year, that is a $32,000 savings in fuel per year.

I was a bit skeptical before running the numbers, but that could work for some trucking companies. For some companies it might not be feasible though. When self driving trucks become legal, unfortunately it's going to put a lot of truck drivers out of work. It will also make the economics of an electric truck very attractive. Eliminate the driver who you have to pay $50K+ a year and that's big savings for the trucking company.

ICE v EV.jpg
 
@Laban Arguably it's not quite free.

On one hand it's a benefit but on the other it is a constraint of traditional batteries, having capacity and maximum power output linked. The electrode material being scaled up (either through more cells or large cells), gives more storage as well as more current capacity (power). However the materials used in these electrodes are expensive, so once you go past your design criteria on instant power, you are paying for additional material that is only needed for it's storage.

I'm sure there are ways to mitigate this. Primary high quality battery chemistry and larger capacity lower cost but lower C rated secondary batteries, or a breakthrough in cathode chemistry that make them dirt cheap.

One elegant solution to decoupling capacity with power output (and probably more likely for grid storage) is the flow cell. http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015...ry-can-store-10-times-energy-next-best-device

It's an interesting area of research and one I'm watching carefully. The nail in the coffin for the tech was energy density. In the arena of grid smoothing of renewables though it could make a comeback, as energy density is not such a constraint. However the ability to size capacity and power independently would be attractive. Of course it's a long way from commercial viability.

(Just for removal of doubt: I don't believe the Quant, which is AFAIK the only vehicle implementation of this style of battery, has any future. Nor do I think flow cells are going to hit the semi-market anytime soon ;) ).
 
1000 KWH would get you up into a very decent range around 750 miles, which is a day's driving for most long haul trucks. Though a 1000KWh pack would be very expensive at even the projected prices a few years from now. If batteries were $90/KWh, which some might say is ambitious for 2020, that's $90,000 just for the batteries.

Without some kind of breakthrough to make batteries significantly cheaper than they are now, long range electric semis are going to be expensive. A new Kenworth T680 (their long haul truck tractor) costs between $135K and $150K new. It's going to be tough to be price competitive with a truck that has a $90,000 battery. Even with just a 500 KWh battery, that's going to cost $45-$50K ($90-$100/KWh).

$90k isn't actually that much, at least not with Swedish fuel prices in mind. A semi is driven around 250 000 miles/year. Diesel is ~$4.2/gallon in here.

Daimler Unveils SuperTruck; 12-MPG Semi Is More Than Twice As Fuel-Efficient

12 miles/gallon -> ~21000 gallons/year. Or $88 000/year in diesel costs even with one of the the most efficient semis under ideal conditions (test). An electric semi would be around $20 000/year ($0.1/kWh) if we assume that the electric semi uses 1/3 of the energy of the diesel. That means $136 000 of savings in just two years. And there should of course be some additional service/maintenance savings on top of that.

This is with Swedish fuel/energy prices though. Might look a bit different depending on the market.
 
The number of miles/year in the calculation above was a bit off. It's ~150 000 miles/year (long haul). 150 000 miles = $52 000 compared to $13 000 for the electric. So it'll take 2-2.5 years to get the money back. This is with the assumption that the electric motors + inverters cost the same as the diesel engine, gearbox, emission cleaning systems(s), which i doubt is true.

But let's say that the battery lasts 10 years and that the battery is paid for after 3 years. That's $273k in total. A lot of money.
 
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