Supercharging to be uncoupled for new owners - lowering price of S/X

[ohmman]

I hope its decoupled from the M3 also.

If so.... I'm going to set up a $500 payment every 6 months to Super Charging. My bank has auto-pay. I'm going to check the balance every 3 months or so to see if I'm ok. That way I will never have to worry about balances.

I feel quite certain that the PPU/credit program for Supercharging will be tied to a credit card, and you'll be able to "recharge" your credits remotely on demand. It's very possible they'll even give you an option to have it "refill" your credits once you dip below a certain value. My toll tag in California works exactly this way, and I never have to touch the account.

 

[SageBrush]

BTW, The difference in our estimates comes down to the estimate of SC usage.

That is one difference, but Troy is assuming immediate, full utilization of every SC from the day it is built, which is clearly far, far from the truth. Much better in my opinion is to simply cost out a PV mile. My main uncertainty lies in estimating canopy PV installation cost. I used $2/watt but it could be double. In case you were not keeping track, our estimates of additional cost to solarize SC use are:

• Your initial estimate: 10x
• Your revised estimate: 3x
• My estimate: 0.125x

 

[Garlan Garner]

That is one difference, but Troy is assuming immediate, full utilization of every SC from the day it is built, which is clearly far, far from the truth. Much better in my opinion is to simply cost out a PV mile. My main uncertainty lies in estimating canopy PV installation cost. I used $2/watt but it could be double. In case you were not keeping track, our estimates of additional cost to solarize SC use are:

• Your initial estimate: 10x
• Your revised estimate: 3x
• My estimate: 0.125x

I agree with your estimates so far.

 

[u00mem9]

that last addition to your calculation is losing the plot. The question was how much more does a PV powered SC station cost to install vs one without.

You have added time in to show that over a longer period, it becomes less of an impact. True, but missing the point.

Tesla is in a cash crunch.
That is limiting the network build-out critical to support M3 volume.
Someone suggested adding PV
That makes the cash situation worse and would further complicate the problem.

 

[ecarfan]

I feel quite certain that the PPU/credit program for Supercharging will be tied to a credit card, and you'll be able to "recharge" your credits remotely on demand. It's very possible they'll even give you an option to have it "refill" your credits once you dip below a certain value

Yes, I am as certain as I can be that the Supercharger PPU program will automatically "top up" the kWh's when it gets low, or you will be able to top up via the Tesla web site or the smartphone app.

I think the PPU program will be very simple to use, and will be very popular.

 

[SageBrush]

The question was how much more does a PV powered SC station cost to install vs one without.

Correct.

I make no comment about cash flow

 

[Garlan Garner]

that last addition to your calculation is losing the plot. The question was how much more does a PV powered SC station cost to install vs one without.

You have added time in to show that over a longer period, it becomes less of an impact. True, but missing the point.

Tesla is in a cash crunch.
That is limiting the network build-out critical to support M3 volume.
Someone suggested adding PV
That makes the cash situation worse and would further complicate the problem.

Tesla is indeed in a cash crunch. I wonder why though. They are still building SC's then. I wonder if they can allocate the money coming in that supports the SC network to building the M3. Let me correct myself. I'm sure they can as long as their investors and the SEC understands.

 

[RogerHScott]

I wonder if they can allocate the money coming in that supports the SC network to building the M3.

The line between ethical and legal here is really blurry. It is, IMO, pretty clearly unethical to take $2k/car from people for, among other
things, the promised build out of the SpC network and then spend it on something more convenient to the company but possibly of
no interest or value to the original customer. Whether there's any legal issue with that is far less clear.

 

[SageBrush]

The line between ethical and legal here is really blurry. It is, IMO, pretty clearly unethical to take $2k/car from people for, among other
things, the promised build out of the SpC network and then spend it on something more convenient to the company but possibly of
no interest or value to the original customer.

Save this post for when Tesla stops building SuperChargers.

 

[Canuck]

It is, IMO, pretty clearly unethical to take $2k/car from people for, among other things, the promised build out of the SpC network...

Can you provide a source for this alleged promise? Just because I give a company for something doesn't mean the company is obligated to use the money I provided it for the items I bought. It's very common to use money for other purposes. There's nothing unethical about that.

But I do agree if Tesla has said something to the effect of "We use the $2k you spend for supercharging to build out the supercharging network" then it's not ethical to use it for another purpose. I don't recall hearing them say that, but I might have missed it.

It also seems to me that Tesla has paid more on the supercharger network, including research, development, software, hardware, rent, power, construction, maintenance, etc. then they have the collected in supercharging payments on vehicles sold to date. I could be wrong, but it seems to me even if they promised to use the money for supercharging, they have to have a lot more sales until they even break even.

 

[ohmman]

Can you provide a source for this alleged promise? Just because I give a company for something doesn't mean the company is obligated to use the money I provided it for the items I bought. It's very common to use money for other purposes. There's nothing unethical about that.

To continue this line of reasoning, business works this way across the board. You make more on one thing and sometimes even lose money on other things. If you put every option into a silo, the business would be very likely to fail.

Charities do this very frequently. They use funds raised from high profile media events to satisfy the needs that aren't getting the immediate attention of donors. Is that unethical?

I agree - if Tesla says "this $2k is slated for Supercharger buildout and nothing more," they shouldn't use it elsewhere. But that's not the case. It's an option with a margin and that margin goes into funding whatever needs funding. That's just business.

 

[KublaConn]

What might make sense...

Lower priced Tesla vehicles - Model 3 and the lowest price Model S/X would have SC as an option, to allow owners not planning to do much long distance driving the ability to save around $2K off their purchase price by omitting SC. This is what Tesla did originally with the Model S.

Higher priced Tesla vehicles - for most Model S and X vehicles, they would likely continue to bundle the "free long distance" SC package, since with the higher priced cars, the $2K savings isn't as important.

And, for anyone using the SC's more frequently for local charging, they will likely start getting charged for local charging, since Tesla intended the SC network to be for long distance driving - not as an alternative to an overnight local charger.

It is also a very plausible use case where someone who purchases one of the more expensive models wouldn't want to pay up front for lifetime SpC use because the more expensive models have increased range. Is it not true that it's the shorter range models that will have more instances where a SpC stop is required? Owning a model with 300+ miles of range will mean that there will be an increase of instances where you don't have to worry about a SpC at all, no? That 140 mile trip to the lake where there's no convenient L2 charger? No worries, you own a 100D and can easily make it there and back on a full range charge. It seems to me that there would be many cases where the "free lifetime supercharging" would be more attractive to someone buying a 60D, who would also have more head room in their wallet due to the lower start price, than someone that's already stretching to purchase a 90D or 100D.

 

[Topher]

It is, IMO, pretty clearly unethical to take $2k/car from people for, among other
things, the promised build out of the SpC network and then spend it on something more convenient to the company but possibly of
no interest or value to the original customer.

So got any evidence for that allegation?

Tesla has 698 superstations @ $270,000 apiece, divided by 137,000 cars is $1375 per car just to build the stations. Owners still get a lifetimes supply of charging for their $2,000 plus monitoring, upkeep, repair. The owners should have no complaints.

Thank you kindly.

 

[SageBrush]

Right, this seems to be the much more reasonable solution, and mirrors what they're going to be doing at the Gigafactory. They'll have solar on the roof, which will be helpful, but they still need to bring in a lot more from external sources.

JB talks some about this in a Nov 2015 presentation. Any other informative links ?

 

[FlatSix911]

Love the way that Ar-can-saw was an island in the SC network ...

That is a couple years old, so it could be quite different now. The 2014 network was much smaller:

 

[KublaConn]

Love the way that Ar-can-saw was an island in the SC network ...

Was? I think you mean "is". It's two years later and AR is still a SpC desert.

 

[ohmman]

JB talks some about this in a Nov 2015 presentation. Any other informative links ?

It was brought up during the Gigafactory presentation during the Q&A. Took me a bit of searching, but here it is (skip forward to 2:10)

 

[SageBrush]

Took me a bit of searching, but here it is

Thanks!

Elon mentions importing wind power, I wonder from where. Perhaps the upper Midwest or Idaho. I vaguely remember reading of a plan to mine Lithium from Montana and bring it to the GF by rail. Tesla thinks on such big scales that I will not be surprised if they build their own high power transmission line along the rail-road tracks.

 

[RogerHScott]

To clarify, I wasn't accusing Tesla of any unethical actions. I was stating a hypothetical. Now you're free to disagree with either or both
of the premise or conclusion of that hypothetical, but only hypothetically
That said, are some of you folks saying that if your cellular provider decided tomorrow to stop putting any money into building or
maintaining cell towers you'd be fine with that 'cause you can't produce a written promise from them to spend your payments on
providing the service you value?

 

[SageBrush]

are some of you folks saying that if your cellular provider decided tomorrow to stop putting any money into building or
maintaining cell towers you'd be fine with that

Maintenance: no
Expansion: yes

Now, put your goalposts back where they were.