Supercharger growth

[roblab]

Agreed. Tesla has taken the initiative to do what no other car manufacturer in history has done successfully: build out nationwide networks of vehicle energy supply stations across the globe. And they have to tie into existing public utility infrastructure after finding sites on private property that require lease negotiations and jumping through hoops to get permits. It's a very challenging task and there are numerous obstacles that have to be overcome at each site. It is amazing to me that Tesla has been able to build out so many sites so quickly. No other company has the will and the vision to accomplish this. The Supercharger network advantage is a formidable one that will serve Tesla well.

Oh, so true! I have never seen GM or Ford gas stations. They never worried about that end of it. They never worried about franchise sales. All they do is build cars, and that too is farmed out, to the engine company and tranny company and even the body companies! I guess some of them have done their own glass (L-O-F). But Tesla is doing it ALL. Stuff no one else has even thought of, like their own firmware and batteries and fueling sites -- for FREE, no less!

I am continually amazed.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Odd that we haven't seen a post in this thread for quite some time, seemed like it was a mainstay for awhile. Looks like we're now up to 460 worldwide superchargers.

Looking ahead, if we use 333 and the goal was 666, we are 206 away with 176 days left.

That's 1.17/day.
We're 189 days in with 127 new openings, a rate of 0.67/day.

Looking at 2014, Jan 1 - July 9, 72 chargers were opened, about .38/day.
July 10 - Dec 31, 196 chargers were opened, about 1.11/day.

So if we just replicate 2H of last year, we're in good shape. Hopefully we see some signs in the next couple of months of that 0.67 rate increasing to greater than 1. Though, it might happen mostly in October - December.

Data from Supercharge.info

So we closed the year with 589 Superchargers worldwide. Did not make the goal of doubling superchargers to 656 this year. I am not sure where I remember hearing that goal, but I think Tesla stated it at one point? (Note - it appears data from Supercharge.info may have changed because it now shows 328 as the end of year number for 2014 rather than the 333 I previously stated. Or perhaps I misstated previously.)

By region from 2014 to 2015:
NA: 152 -> 265 (0.31/day TY vs. 0.28/day LY)
EU: 118 -> 212 (0.26/day TY vs. 0.29/day LY)
AS: 58 -> 112 (0.15/day TY vs. 0.16/day LY or 0.23/day since date of first SpC opening LY)
TOTAL: 328 -> 589 (0.72/day vs. 0.73/day LY)

So the rate of openings this year was pretty consistent to 2014 with some slow down in Asia Pacific.

When I previously looked at rates midway through the year, we were running at a 0.67/day rate and we needed to slightly exceed 2014's second half rate of 1.11/day to make our goal of 656. Since that update, the rate has only been 0.73/day. Significantly lower than last year, but much more consistent rates throughout the year than in 2014.

I hope we hear something from Tesla regarding supercharger growth for 2016 and hopefully we will see an updated map on the Tesla site for 2017 like we did for 2016 at the beginning of this year.

What are your expectations for 2016? I would hope to see the same rate continue, which would put us just over 850 at the end of 2016 and over 1,000 in Q3 2017 in time for Model 3 launch. I think as we approach that point, we will need to begin to shift focus to total number of stalls as the network needs to be capable of handling peak traffic during holidays without exorbitant wait times. I wouldn't be surprised however, if we ended up only making it to just over 800 at the end of 2016 and 1,000 to end 2017. Hopefully as Model X/Energy ramp, we can accelerate the growth rate and achieve these numbers more quickly, but I could easily see that money going to Model 3/Gigafactory 2. Additionally, there may be other constraints regarding construction aside from cost that would make a higher rate difficult to achieve, especially as more and more locations become occupied with Superchargers.

 

[MikeC]

I wonder what it would look like if you did compare rate of increase of total number of stalls instead of new sites this past year. I think there must be some constraint between whether to add more capacity at an existing location vs. opening a new site.

 

[Saghost]

I wonder what it would look like if you did compare rate of increase of total number of stalls instead of new sites this past year. I think there must be some constraint between whether to add more capacity at an existing location vs. opening a new site.

Pulling the Supercharge.info "data" tab information into a spreadsheet and doing some quick math, I came up with 1490 stalls opened in 2015, with 1493 stalls opened in 2014, 429 stalls opened before 2014, and 188 stalls in construction, planning, and temporarily closed (which includes the site from this latest fire.)
Walter

 

[Mihai]

Tesla promises again much more than they can deliver. If I look at the current supercharger map I see that Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey will be covered by superchargers by the end of this year.
If we look at real life, there are no superchargers under construction in any of these 4 countries till today and I doubt they can build them in 1,5 months.
I just want to visit my home country and tell everyone how amazing Tesla is, but as of end of 2016 I can only get as far as Austria.

 

[ggr]

You cannot know whether there are superchargers under construction or not. Tesla doesn't announce them until (after) they open. Ones that are listed as "under construction" have been found by interested and knowledgeable outsiders, so ones in places where there aren't many Teslas yet tend to be overlooked. This topic comes up every few months, and invariably they appear.