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8.1 will bring us highway exits and probably some minor adjustments to the radar.
It was never stopped being offered - AP 2.0 cars didn't have the software ready yet. 1.0 has continued.
If Trump eliminates EV incentives he'll be killing every other automobile manufacturer. Also, it won't change what states are allowed to do, and will do if he does this.
If Trump removes all US clean energy commitments, I expect there will be massive revolts at the state level. Also, I expect states run by educated people to massively increase clean energy incentives and requirements.
Nothing Trump is able to do will help the Coal Industry. The coal industry is already dead.
Solar is already cheaper than coal in most places. If Trump tries to help the coal industry and hurt the Solar industry, he will fail.
If Trump removes all US clean energy commitments, I expect there will be massive revolts at the state level. Also, I expect states run by educated people to massively increase clean energy incentives and requirements.
Nothing Trump is able to do will help the Coal Industry. The coal industry is already dead.
Solar is already cheaper than coal in most places. If Trump tries to help the coal industry and hurt the Solar industry, he will fail.
Kenriko
Former Vendor
Pure FUD with a bunch of false information: Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Stock Is Getting Killed! Here’s Why.
3Victoria
Active Member
Mike Smith
Active Member
I find it shocking that so many media organizations would cover Mark Spiegel's contention that Tesla will lose huge amounts of money on every model 3 sold without even bothering to mention Tesla's actual forecast:
Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk sees the vehicle generating ~$20 billion in revenue with 25% gross margin (TSLA)
Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk sees the vehicle generating ~$20 billion in revenue with 25% gross margin (TSLA)
A lot has been said about Model 3 and how it is different from X and such. Here is a different view point.
With Model 3 the complexity is moving from the car to the factory. Musk has said many times that they want to build an incomprehensible "alien dreadnought". Something that is radically different from any other factory that every existed. Nothing off-the-shelf about it. Yet, he also wants to accomplish this, or a working version of it (ver 0.5), by mid-to-late 2017 for Model 3 launch. Every single auto analyst or industry expert said that the new model 3 timeline is unattainable, using the normal way of building auto manufacturing lines. But Musk wants to invent entirely new ways of doing it in that timeline.
From many posts in this thread, from factory visits apparently all we have so far is a big hole in the floor of the factory.
I'm sure Musk will get the dreadnought done. Eventually. Just not anywhere close to the timelines that he has been talking about. If Model 3 is contingent on this, any timeline is just a wild guess, with Musk's timeline being the worst guess (if you disagree with this, you just don't know Musk enough).
TL;DR Yes, Model 3 is simple. But nothing about "the machine that makes the machine" is simple.
With Model 3 the complexity is moving from the car to the factory. Musk has said many times that they want to build an incomprehensible "alien dreadnought". Something that is radically different from any other factory that every existed. Nothing off-the-shelf about it. Yet, he also wants to accomplish this, or a working version of it (ver 0.5), by mid-to-late 2017 for Model 3 launch. Every single auto analyst or industry expert said that the new model 3 timeline is unattainable, using the normal way of building auto manufacturing lines. But Musk wants to invent entirely new ways of doing it in that timeline.
From many posts in this thread, from factory visits apparently all we have so far is a big hole in the floor of the factory.
I'm sure Musk will get the dreadnought done. Eventually. Just not anywhere close to the timelines that he has been talking about. If Model 3 is contingent on this, any timeline is just a wild guess, with Musk's timeline being the worst guess (if you disagree with this, you just don't know Musk enough).
TL;DR Yes, Model 3 is simple. But nothing about "the machine that makes the machine" is simple.
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I'm shocked any semi credible news source is willing to cite anything Spiegel says unless they are pointing out that he is not a financial analyst, has no present financial qualifications, and operates (is basically the sole operator of) what looks like a fake "pooled investment fund".
Link to report on BEV vs FCEV:
Battery cars a better choice for reducing emissions than fuel cell cars | Energy
What makes this report special? The study was conducted by Stanford's Global Climate Energy Project (GCEP) which is funded by the fossil fuel giants, XOM and Chevron being in the that group. Thus, the addage, 'consider the source' adds additional weight to the superiority of BEV's being the long-term winner.
Battery cars a better choice for reducing emissions than fuel cell cars | Energy
What makes this report special? The study was conducted by Stanford's Global Climate Energy Project (GCEP) which is funded by the fossil fuel giants, XOM and Chevron being in the that group. Thus, the addage, 'consider the source' adds additional weight to the superiority of BEV's being the long-term winner.
I have no idea how this *may* affect deliveries before year end but the 5 seat version (folding seat) of the X is being held up waiting for some 'parts' for the second row seats. I have seen it first hand and there is a discussion on TM about this situation. These Xs are at the SCs waiting on the adjustments/parts before being delivered.
Edit: add link: 5 seater delivery | Tesla Motors
Edit: add link: 5 seater delivery | Tesla Motors
Read between the lines. 0.5 is just the thing at Fremont. Car is simple. Making a model S is also simple, or it should be if the interior wasn't complicated and they probably made other dumb choices along the way in the body. But fundementally think simple BIW+Simple drivetrain+simplified interior designed for manufacturing. By far the biggest bottleneck they have now is final assembly, which is the interior stuff. So the existing hole can make on the order of 100-200k pretty easily. This is how I think of it. The "1.0" line is probably some of the new Fremont buildings.
Mike Smith
Active Member
So you think they don't expect to be producing cars when they say they will and they're lying to their suppliers, employees, customers and investors? Seems like an extreme and illegal thing to do. Why do you think they would do this, instead of just giving the proper timeline which everyone would have been perfectly happy with?
Totally agree. I interpret "0.5" as code for Elon grumpily and grudgingly resisting the urge to innovate on the "machine that builds the machine" for the first round of Model 3s in order to get them out the door.
In other words, the manufacturing equivalent of deciding to introduce Model X v1.0 without FWDs.
Doubt @SBenson believes EM is lying. Having been through several missed deadlines over the past two years I believe it is prudent to be cautious when it comes to EM timelines. I personally believe *he believes* the deadlines/timelines he gives, so I do not believe he is lying.
I just believe he is *overly optimistic* at times.
You must be new around here. You should read the ER CC transcripts say from Q1 2015 to get a better sense of Musk speak.
Maybe read Ashley Vance's book or at least read the excerpt or if not, just this one paragraph as a sample data point:
The proposed timeline for upending the aerospace industry was comically short. One of the earliest SpaceX presentations promised the first complete engine by May 2003, a second engine in June, the body of the rocket in July, and everything assembled by August. A launchpad would be ready by September, and the first launch would take place in November 2003, or about 15 months after the company started. A trip to Mars was naturally slated for somewhere near the end of the decade. “Elon has always been optimistic,” said Kevin Brogan, an early SpaceX recruit. “That’s the nice word. He can be a downright liar about when things need to get done. He will pick the most aggressive time schedule imaginable assuming everything goes right, and then accelerate it by assuming that everyone can work harder.”
Looks like someone mentioned it's a side piece of the seats. I wonder if this is a safety (i.e., required) part issue or a cosmetic one. The sides of the seat look unfinished compared to the 6/7 seaters, so my money is on them wanting to make it look better.
Ameliorate
Member
Sorry to steal the thunder from whoever loves posting these (vlad?) but holy mother of short interest.
We're up 4,156,828 in 15 days for a total of 35,687,317 shares short as of Nov 30.
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Short Interest
edit - Last time the shorts piled in from 27.6M to 31.5M we dropped from 240 to 143, we began to recover even as they threw another 2.5M shares short before they started to cover and then began the climb from 143 to 265. This time they could only drop us $20 and keep within 200-180! Even with spiegals killer presentation (Even if most deaths were boredom related)
We're up 4,156,828 in 15 days for a total of 35,687,317 shares short as of Nov 30.
edit - Last time the shorts piled in from 27.6M to 31.5M we dropped from 240 to 143, we began to recover even as they threw another 2.5M shares short before they started to cover and then began the climb from 143 to 265. This time they could only drop us $20 and keep within 200-180! Even with spiegals killer presentation (Even if most deaths were boredom related)
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