Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[dirtyofries]

I agree it's not a smoking gun on its own, but added onto the 'spaceship' comments and general spartan design of the 3's prototype interior, I would place an extremely high probability of a HUD. And by that I don't necessarily mean anything ground-breaking, but at least on par with what other automakers offer today. At least to start.

Fair enough - I get the feeling people are setting themselves up for disappointment, however. At the very least, we'd need to see it on S or X first.

Like I said in my original comment - I'd like to be wrong.

 

[KLC13]

Just visited the Tesla store in Toronto. There was a crowd around the X and the S felt kind of left out...

Anyway, the product specialist mentioned the shipments in the last two months have been greater than Aug-Sept.

 

[Kenriko]

but at some point when Elon is achieving 90-100% of what he set out to do in 2017 the market will have to reward him.

"but at some point when Elon is achieving 90-100% of what he set out to do in 2017 the market will have to reward US."

FTFY

 

[vgrinshpun]

Possibly - I couldn't tell from Vlad's prior posting of the two pics whether both those were from the known 18650's or whether the rhs was from a conjectured 21-70, etc. BUT - I'm in no position to worry about whether we're discussing what is versus what might be: after all, isn't mischievous speculation 99% of what occurs here? So I'm considering the transfer through air - or whatever other medium surrounds every battery in each pack - of heat.
Of course, to be considered as being even remotely rigorous, I concede that one then needs demonstrate efficacy of any basal "active" transfer medium (Vlad's position) vs. whatever might be bathing the sidewall and how such heat thereafter is removed.

Didn't I say I was finished here? I should be doing year-end tax stuff...

Pictures are of old battery pack architecture. I'll try to post my thoughts on the sidewall / bottom area comparison tonight, unless somebody posts discussion in line with my thinking prior to that...

BTW, heat transfer through the air will be very small compared to the transfer through the actively cooled surface. Mouse nuts...

 

[EinSV]

Yep, exactly right. Elon is set to give guidance that is far above the estimates. I think MS/MX guidance will come in at 100-110k, which in itself is above estimates. M3 is the wildcard. If they can guide for 50-100k M3, credibly, then they can effectively almost double auto guidance. Wildcard 2 is TE. Everyone has it as a 0 or close to it. I expect guidance reflecting that "crazy, bonkers" demand Elon has talked about that would start in Q4. Wildcard 3 is solar. Basically everyone has it as negative or 0 right now. They could guide to some big numbers here, too - remember we will get 1-2 quarters of roof deliveries too.

If all this guidance hits in the Q4 call, analysts will be given the choice to either adjust models and significantly increase price targets or assume he's lying and do nothing. I honestly expect the latter, but at some point when Elon is achieving 90-100% of what he set out to do in 2017 the market will have to reward him.

I hope that Tesla gives very conservative guidance across the board and consistently beats (or even crushes) it. The market is likely to discount any ambitious guidance anyway, so a series of beats on S/X, TE, etc. (both volume and margins) could help build credibility.

Having said that, I think your estimate of 100k-110k MS/MX guidance sounds about right and would very likely fit the bill -- very conservative and setting up solid beats in Q1 and Q2.

Whatever they guide for TE, I hope it is low enough that there is a very high probability of a beat. They will get little or no upside from higher guidance, so why not build confidence?

In other words, talk softly and throw big pies.

 

[MitchJi]

Samsung Electronics to Supply Automotive Semiconductors to Tesla
I am reading this as Tesla is looking to produce their own chips instead of sourcing them from Nvidia. But I don't understand to what degree. I assume they arent trying to build the complete PX 2 computer.

I'm pretty sure that they are planning to replace the PX 2 with their own hardware. They could do that by either making an equivalent computer or by making something that is designed to specifically support their needs. The Nvidia computer is a general purpose computer. If Tesla designs hardware that specifically supports their application that could save money and result in a smaller less power hungry solution. I think that they will do both.

A possible reason to continue to use general purpose hardware is if they plan to increase the number or types of sensors, or make other substantial changes to their AP system.

 

[cgiGuy]

I'm sure this isn't related to a HUD.

Oh, that guy? He's just working on the new Tesla augmented reality accessory.

 

[Mike Smith]

I'm pretty sure that they are planning to replace the PX 2 with their own hardware. They could do that by either making an equivalent computer or by making something that is designed to specifically support their needs. The Nvidia computer is a general purpose computer. If Tesla designs hardware that specifically supports their application that could save money and result in a smaller less power hungry solution. I think that they will do both.

A possible reason to continue to use general purpose hardware is if they plan to increase the number or types of sensors, or make other substantial changes to their AP system.

There's no way Tesla is going to develop their own GPU. That would be insanely difficult and expensive.

 

[Kenriko]

There's no way Tesla is going to develop their own GPU. That would be insanely difficult and expensive.

I agree that they won't be developing their own GPU. However the PX2 board is 2 Tegras and 4 A57 Processors It is possible they develop their own SOC and still use Nvidia GPUs for the number crunching. Including R&D I doubt they would save much money doing it though.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

I don't know what Tesla has in mind but for digital image processing it's common to use a chip (high end digital cameras), for example Milbeaut - Wikipedia

 

[Mike Smith]

I agree that they won't be developing their own GPU however the PX2 board is 2 Tegras and 4 A57 Processors It is possible they develop their own SOC and still use Nvidia GPUs for the number crunching. Including R&D I doubt they would save much money doing it though.

It sounds like this is what they're doing with Samsung.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Many people out of the USA are priced out of Mercedes, BMW, Porsche , etc.

The strong dollar never seems to reduce BMW prices in the USA

Part of your statement is exactly my point, currency changes don't change price of your BMW. However, Tesla floats prices with the currency, which changes price in most countries. Strong US dollar, higher Tesla prices. Most other car makers go with regional pricing that is much more sensitive to that specific market, which means changes are very gradual.

Here is one example that may be illustrative. Well equipped P85D was 120 something in Canada few years back. Well equipped P100D is over 200. I don't think ratio is the same in US

 

[Mike Smith]

When the US dollar rises Tesla's costs for imported components and raw materials fall, so prices don't have to fully reflect changes in foreign currency to maintain margins.

 

[dennis]

Unlike the cylindrical cells where the GF1 open house shared details on how the jelly roll content is constructed and how much TSLA is participating in the content of the cell cans. The Panasonic secret sauce appears to be transforming large rolls into small sliced rolls and stuffing them into the cans.

The presses and the ovens that we viewed at the GF open house were in the "Panasonic portion" of the GF and will be run by Panasonic. One of the Tesla employees I spoke with had visited Panasonic battery factories in Japan and he said that this part of the GF is almost exactly the same as those factories.

I assume we will never get to see the cell assembly operations. In fact I was told that those areas are completely off limits to Tesla employees. This is also the area where productivity increases could come from since IIRC Panasonic does the cell assembly in China because of the high labor content involved.

EDIT: The China cell assembly may just be for the "normal" 18650 cells because of their more complicated jacketing, etc. that are not present in the 18650's produced for Tesla.

 

[Drax7]

Part of your statement is exactly my point, currency changes don't change price of your BMW. However, Tesla floats prices with the currency, which changes price in most countries. Strong US dollar, higher Tesla prices. Most other car makers go with regional pricing that is much more sensitive to that specific market, which means changes are very gradual.

Here is one example that may be illustrative. Well equipped P85D was 120 something in Canada few years back. Well equipped P100D is over 200. I don't think ratio is the same in US

Your point is very valid.
The Canadian dollar has been seriously devalued. Tesla has to adjust its price accordingly.

On the other hand, The euro has lost 1/3 of its value in the last 6 years, and German
Cars don't seem to get cheaper here in the USA. I resent that.

We do know how price sensitive the tesla car is, the discounted ones flew of the
Shelf last quarter.

The yuan has also depreciated in the last year, not helpful.

Tesla cars are still a huge value proposition, the cost of fuel
Plus low maintenance are very compelling.

 

[ggr]

Just visited the Tesla store in Toronto. There was a crowd around the X and the S felt kind of left out...

Anyway, the product specialist mentioned the shipments in the last two months have been greater than Aug-Sept.

I visited the San Diego UTC store yesterday, and drove past the Tesla area to park. It had 7 MXs, and no MSs, at the chargers in their area. (There were a bunch of random MSs in the parking lot, but probably all, like me, just there to shop.)

 

[MitchJi]

Republican Trump campaigned on a promise to slash regulation to free up drilling and coal mining, something he said was possible without compromising air and water quality. He vowed that within his first 100 days in office he would rescind Obama's Clean Power Plan, eliminate "unwarranted restrictions" on hydraulic fracturing oil drilling technology, cut "outdated" regulations, and pull the country out of a global pact to curb warming of the planet.

If he believes that it's scary.

 

[dirtyofries]

Republican Trump campaigned on a promise to slash regulation to free up drilling and coal mining, something he said was possible without compromising air and water quality. He vowed that within his first 100 days in office he would rescind Obama's Clean Power Plan, eliminate "unwarranted restrictions" on hydraulic fracturing oil drilling technology, cut "outdated" regulations, and pull the country out of a global pact to curb warming of the planet.

If he believes that it's scary.

Doesn't matter what the moron believes - just matters who he's putting in charge of our institutions. And they definitely believe it - or at least, get paid enough to do so.

I've never seen such blatant fox-in-the-henhouse governance.

 

[FredTMC]

Republican Trump campaigned on a promise to slash regulation to free up drilling and coal mining, something he said was possible without compromising air and water quality. He vowed that within his first 100 days in office he would rescind Obama's Clean Power Plan, eliminate "unwarranted restrictions" on hydraulic fracturing oil drilling technology, cut "outdated" regulations, and pull the country out of a global pact to curb warming of the planet.

If he believes that it's scary.

It believes in Global Warming. Everyone does.
The data is solid. He won't admit it though.

That said, He has interests to protect and defend...

 

[tander]

Regarding autopilot and the upcoming update, is it expected to be a big improvement over the previous version? Also, why did they stop offering it for a while anyway?