Probably from camping out at the end of the production line and eating pizza with the other workers
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
Probably from camping out at the end of the production line and eating pizza with the other workers
Amusing to see a so called skeptic eagerly handwave away GMs changing position here. What did Electrek get wrong exactly? It merely pointed out that it and others were skeptical of GMs original claim of the bolt starting with a nationwide launch. And GM switching to a 'slow ramp' focused primary on CA and Oregon vs...
At the end of 2015 GM said:
As for when the Bolt will actually be available to buy, Balch said that after the positive response to the concept at the Detroit Auto Show earlier this year, "GM leadership has essentially fast-tracked this car into production." There was an announcement that the Bolt would be built at the Orion Assembly facility near Detroit and there are Bolt mules out testing. "It's very safe to assume that this car is going to be here sooner rather than later," Balch said. "We've also committed that it's going to be a 50-state vehicle at launch. That's to show our commitment to the technology. Our hope is that it becomes a high-volume-selling car, and that it's not just for the coasts, it's not just for a certain income level, but it is a long-range EV that anybody can get themselves into. ... [This is] a good alternative to the luxury long-range EVs that are available now. It's something that people can see themselves actually affording to get into. That's the message from this car."
We all know you and your psuedo skeptic act would pummel tesla mercilessly had they committed to a "fast-tracked production" with a "nationwide launch" for the model 3 and then months later changed it just before launch to CA only with a "slow ramp".
Electrek also i think correctly pointed out:
As I have stated in the past, with a planned production of 20,000 to 30,000 units per year, I wouldn’t be surprised if GM was able to sell all 2016-2017 Bolts in ZEV states. Therefore, I think it could be difficult, if not impossible finding the car in other markets.
This is another good bet. It will be hard to find bolts for sale in non ZEV states in 2017.
If one believes TSLA will miss its own guidance in Q4 (20-22k) cars, lose 250-300 Mio on GAAP basis and pull Model X-like Launch for Model 3 at the end of 2017, may one see the stock as not oversold today?
Gerardf
Active Member
Ok, and how would that (if correct) be relevant to this theat ?
I wouldn't bet on your prediction, just as your prediction of 18% gross margin for q3 seems rather bad, no?
You do realize that high frequency trading is responsible for the majority of the traded volume for any liquid enough equity right? They are neither long or short, just go in and out in milliseconds. Just for that 1 cent (or in TSLA case, a few cents) difference in ask and bid then out.
Also I was referring to Aug and Sep, when we went to 200 from 235. The trading volume in those two months were among the lowest actually. A total of 133 m and average 3.02 m (yes I counted, day by day). Even if we just assign 50% of the trading volume to HTF, there's 66 m shares left for long, mid, short, day traders. 8 m (while I still think it should be closer to 11 m) out of sold shares from institutions is 12% of that volume. Still a stretch?
Look, I'm not contesting short sellers are playing a big role in TSLA's price movement for the past few years, even more so with in a few hours in a day. But we should face the fact that for the past few months, longs selling their positions is a major factor of stock price drop. It's nothing new. 2 years ago when Daimler sold their 4% holdings of the company, we saw a big drop that time too.
Bad data in, bad data out, Ingenieur.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Its: "garbage in, garbage out, comrade".
We have an honest disagreement about which percent of decline is attributable to which cause. I appreciate your contributions to this forum and seriously consider your viewpoint, but we disagree on this one.
Edit: To add some color to my position, consider the profound influence on stock price that capping behavior has. We've twice now had Cramer of all people saying "Tesla is about to go higher" as it approached an important technical number, but the capping techniques always kept TSLA below the number needed to set off the rally. Here's a stock which has had its rallies chopped off and capped before they punched through the necessary number, every time. No wonder longs are disappointed in TSLA's performance for much of this year. What's important is to place this explanation out there for investors to chew on and see for themselves if they believe it explains the events they themselves have witnessed.
Last edited:
We dont know how much costs TSLA moved between quarters, it will all show up in Q4. We also dont know how Tesla accounted profit from sale of 20 Mio Nevada tax credits, i wasnt even aware of it back then. My biggest error was underestimating the impact from ca. 1300 fully loaded PX90D being delivered in Europe. It is one off, now its below 10% of total deliveries, these cars had 40ish% GM.
In fact, given that SCTY takeover was being planned since early 2016, i think Q2 delivery miss and massive loss was engineered to produce big Q3, chunks of Q3 costs were moved to Q2 and Q4. Not even Tesla bears had logical explaination for Q2 delivery miss. Imo they just moved some deliveries to Q3 to produce profit, hoping for replay of Q2 2013. This obviously sounds as stupid to a Tesla bull as some of the posts on this forum sound to myself, but thats the beauty of it.
Message from Lord Vetinari:
A whole lot of you need to leave your keyboards and go have some Saturday night fun. You're ruining mine - NEVER a wise move.
A whole lot of you need to leave your keyboards and go have some Saturday night fun. You're ruining mine - NEVER a wise move.
What fun do you have anyway, this time of the year, in that goddamn place called Alaska?
FredLambert
Member
Hi, author of the article here. I was going to defend myself, but I was pretty much going to say exactly what Turing wrote here. Thanks for that.
The goal of the article was really only to highlight the fact that GM is completely walking away from its earlier claim that the Chevy Bolt EV will be available in all 50 states at launch.
This is clearly not true anymore and obviously disappointing. I think the article was clear about that.
Now if you detect some slight implications that I'm claiming the Bolt is a compliance car, you wouldn't be wrong. Though I'm not outright saying it and leaving the benefit of the doubt to GM. Hence why I reject your claim of "making a mountain of an article out of nothing".
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
You're right of course, Fred, mmd doesn't know what he's talking about.
Either way thanks for the slowed down version of the new AP2 demo video from Tesla, it's quite amazing to see some of what's happening behind the curtain with the visual object tracking and recognition. Clearly this is not the Mobileye based hardware+software suite, but the Tesla in-house developed suite.
Watch Tesla’s latest self-driving demo in real-time instead of sped up for better look at the system
FredLambert
Member
I have it under good authority that we are going to see a lot more of those videos in the coming months. We are talking about all sensor feeds being displayed and operated in different conditions. Tesla is serious about showing their progress and building confidence in the system.
Since this is the investor forum, let me make this prediction.
Right now the market clearly doesn't believe Tesla can either achieve level 5 on its current hardware suite or deliver it in the timeframe Elon announced, this will change in the coming months. The "lidar or nothing" crowd will not go down without a fight, but they will lose credibility quickly.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I agree with this assessment and see it as "the other" important stock price growth promotor in 2017, together with Model 3 production actually taking off of course.
I appreciate your contribution to the community as well. At least we can agree on we have different opinions on the extent of short's role for the past few months. /shakehands.
And I totally agree it is very effective to put extra pressure on the stock when it is approaching important technical levels. Many short or mid term traders care about those levels more than fundamentals. We are also at an important support level and bulls are defending it not that bad. But I do think once fundamental becomes strong enough, those who try to do the capping behavior will be trampled. It's just not that strong (or should I say obvious) yet.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Who on earth will buy a Bolt when the 3 is around? Will any short, long, thin or thick do this? Please let me know, this is a serious question as I may consider shorting a few auto companies when the M3 ramps.
My feeling is that the only reason the Leaf or I3 has been able to sell is bc there hasn't been any lower end cars that can capture the econobox market, hence, buyers naturally gravitate towards inferiority due to unavailability of options to choose from. But when you add the M3 to this segment, why would anyone buy a Leaf, I3 or Bolt? Please, enlightened me and talk me out from Shorting big auto.
Last edited:
Yes. However I think we have come to a point where Mobile Eye can safely change their name to Black Eye.
mmd
Active Member
Not really true. I said that on July 5th after the big Q2 delivery miss. If not for the leaked email and discounting near the end of Q3, I would still be expecting a small miss.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
