Search results

Aww, how nice. Sorry couldn't post much but we just finished our vacation - being on the internet was just not a priority and not easy from many of the places we went to. Really happy about the run - the TSLA stock I picked up from the SCTY acquisition has been a windfall i wasn't expecting...

With the end of daylight savings today, any guesses about how this will pop the stock tomorrow? More daylight, less saved for later, the more value the solar business will be.

You only proved that you don't know what the word miss means. Tesla said they would do 50,000 in the second half, they did not. They were off by about 3k. Based on that you claimed "truly amazing that anyone can say Tesla missed anything" Now you are doing some blah blah blah about powerwall...

Yes, it is very easy for me to use facts that are provided by Tesla to prove a point as I did in my post. There is no context to support your claim they didn't miss when they said "we are re-affirming 50k" in October 26th and missing that by 3k just 9 weeks later. You are right, there is no...

By definition, they haven't been doing the impossible. Even meeting a goal that they announced about 9 weeks ago on a car that is 4 years old and a car that is 1 year old has not been met and, based on the predication thread for Q4, that goal of 24k was hardly viewed as impossible.

Truly amazing that some people don't get that words have meaning. . May 5th: We are re-affirming our 80-90k forecast Oops, missed even the low end. Oct. 26th, We are going to do 50k in the second half - Oops, we missed that by almost 3k units. If that isn't missing, I don't know what...

Depends on how much you believe they are demand constrained vs. production constrained. If you believe they are more production constrained, then you need to think about what they need to do to reduce that constraint while setting up to do several times more in volume for the M3.

It depends on how much you take what a company says at face value about why they missed their numbers. Clearly, the M3 will have more "new"/"unknown" things than a 4 year old MS (although has had updates) or a 1 year old MX and so will they take that much more time to work out all the issues...

Which they have every quarter, so this really is nothing new. When the InsideEV numbers came out for Sept and then again for October, the chorus here was "but that is because all the cars and many of the 'in transit' vehicles from the previous quarter are for overseas dues to the shipping time...

On Oct 26th, Tesla said they would hit 50k for the second half after doing 24,821 in Q3, or 25,179 for Q4. That is almost 3k worth of "production problems" that then happened in November and December.

FYI. Tesla doesn't have dealerships, so a delivery is when it gets to the customer.

Lower revenue probably would mean a lower EPS unless they had a lot of ZEV credits and/or a strong cost reduction program. What was the guidance at the end of Q3, wasn't is to be about the same as Q3?

I thought the super charger was based on when the car was ordered, not when it got delivered. Is it based on delivery?

What negative news? This is great news. Don't be such a FUD spreader and doom and gloomer. Tesla sets very aggressive plans so only missing by 3700 or so is a WIN!

With about 5,000 in transit last quarter, that is what people thought about Q4. It is unclear what the correlation between in transit and a strong quarter actually is.

That is only 3,770 off of their low-end estimate of 80-90k, so the stock should sky rocket tomorrow.

This is classic: "Our Q4 delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct." Isn't that the definition of what a delivery is?

My Guess is 22,222 deliveries

No he didn't clearly state it wouldn't happen. They have met targets before. You may want to learn what they said they would do and actually DID in Q3. Stop spreading FUD!!!

Oh please. What exactly is wrong with having a car that one ups Tesla in the market. Elon Musk says that more EVs are better for the world, and GM is going to provide more EVs so by definition that is GOOD. Do you disagree with Mr. Musk? GM is leading the auto industry in the use of solar...

Exactly. One can not criticize unless they are trying to change the world Yet there are people here who aren't putting their necks on the line to change the world and they have the nerve to criticize GM and other leaders. No one criticizes those criticizers. Go figure. Do you know who...

Funny! People actually believe that the company shut down the line for a significant period of time for something as simple as installing ap2, especially after earlier reports that cars were delivered with what looked like ap2 ready. Just look at how long the line shut down for the front...

I am sorry that you realize that it is hard for you being a troll. Cherry picking data and saying "only this comparison is valid" when I bring up other comparisons is the ultimate outright falsehood. Your thesis was a 2x reduction in price is worth 10x in sales when you claim that the Volt...

Which is surprising to no one. Trump voters care about independence from oil producing countries and making America Great Again through investments in the U.S. infrastructure which includes wind, solar, etc.

Let us know when you plan to invest more again, or when you are selling. Thank you kindly.

Of course it can. Capital intensive businesses require capital. You just can't wave that requirement away by saying the GM of the core business is great. 20% GM on its core business is terrific. They can do a lot better by keeping that margin and perhaps a lower growth rate without having to...

You should distinguish between people who want Tesla to fail and people who believe Tesla could do a lot better, has a lot of risk and they have concerns. The same thing goes with "FUD". Are Consumer Reports ratings FUD? Here, they weren't when they got the 103 rating, but certainly was when...

Well, you might want to tell that to Tesla They originally said 80k-90k this year, and they could have got to 160k units with just a modest price decrease. Or with an even smaller decrease, they certainly could have nailed the 90k number at least.

Shhhhhh. Some people here get upset with analysis if they don't like the answer. Just say 26k units this quarter and that volume increases 10x for every 50% in price decrease and you will be fine. P.S. coming in so close to that estimate was pretty impressive.

Canada? Really that is the best you can do? Price Data: New Cars, Used Cars, Car Reviews and Pricing | Edmunds.com As I expected, you are cherry picking data again. Here: Lexus LS: MSRP 72k 2016 sales YTD 4,905 Lexus RC: MSRP 40k 2016 sales YTD 10,123 Lexus CT: MSRP 31k 2016...

You forgot two things: 1. Someone should audit Insideev (like people here wanted to audit the Mark S. hedge fund) 2. An evil short got to someone at Insidev - my guess is Big Oil or Big Ol' Dirty Coal

That is good to hear. I hope that it protects you from rain and harsh weather and that you don't get distracted when people cross over it. Enjoy it and keep safe!

Well, lets talk about you being reckless with data... Where do you get the price elasticity of 10x for a half price in cost? It is only preposterous if you don't understand the cross-sell data which you obviously don't. This is just proof that you are just here to troll and hype the stock. Let...

I just responded to what you wrote. I know the what the phrase "with you" means.

Sorry, for how I posted that. This is just fun with numbers for me. We will see in a bit more than a month. If the production rate is 2k/week, 11 weeks (they mentioned 2 weeks of shutdown IIRC), that is 22k capacity. Add 5k overhang and subtract the overhang for production at the end of the...

That is not true. Go look at the cross-sell data for the S.

You forgot to assume what the overhang will be in Q4, it was 5k in Q2 and Q3 IIRC. Not all cars produced in the last 2 weeks will necessarily be delivered. Well, it also isn't that instructive to take 5 assumptions and combine them all together without providing a range of results ;)

Thank you for clarifying. I knew that some didn't but didn't know specifically about the Volt. It is in california where the volt gets a smaller state rebate ($1500 vs. 2500 for a full EV)

The question was whether the Bolt could "bettering record of Volt vis-a-vis Model S" I believe the Bolt will do better than the Volt in competing with the S, even though the Volt is no slouch.

Do hybrids get the full 7.5k rebate? I could be wrong, but I thought that was only for 100% EV.

The Volt sold twice as many than the S did in the last two months. With tax breaks, the Bolt is less expensive than the Volt.

How does it look good? I know there was discussion about the InsideEV numbers, particularly the Tesla strategy is to shift deliveries early in the quarter overseas. Is that a new strategy? Don't they do they every year? For instance looking at Q4 2015 vs. this quarter 2015: QTD...

FYI, there is a new car coming out very soon called the Bolt and Volt buyers may be waiting for that.

It is a good thing their numbers mean nothing otherwise it may have an affect on the stock price today. Of course when they announced great numbers earlier this year, no one seemed to discredit them then. Go figure.

Meh. I not in the least bit frustrated. I am surprised and amused when investors look at facts and try to rationalize them away with hopey statements. Like "I did an analysis (good!) but I just need to add a fudge factor of 20% to make it work (amusing!). Can you imagine a short making that...

How do we know that? Delivery quotes for the S and the X in the US in the beginning of the quarter were very fast.

If the fudge is 60% (taking in account random factors) then they can easily top 30k and the stock will hit $262. The regional allocation seems to be about 50% in Q4 of 2015 (total vs. insideev numbers), but maybe this year it is 90:10 because of the election, Brexit, Putin and that soccer team...

As Gilda Radner would say "It's always something". Got to blame it on something. I am surprised that Tesla delayed deliveries for the AP2 hardware. IIRC, the timeline back in Sept and Oct for delivery was less than a month or so (discussed a lot here showing how the production capacity was...

Thanks for the offer to do a witch hunt with me, but I am not willing to do a witch hunt with you or with anyone else. I prefer to focus on the issues and topics and not make this a personal attack on people

Let's have a witch hunt! Someone said something bad about Tesla! Can we get an audit?! If you don't know the truth of his SEC filing, why don't you call the SEC and share your concerns that he may not be telling the truth. Based on your in depth analysis, perhaps that can trigger an SEC...