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Depends on exactly what you do think it meansbut my guess is AP2 will be out by before New Year. Until then you can always play Yakety Sax on Spotify ... but keep hands on
I think that Elon thinks that first batch of FSD could be uploaded by Easter Holiday. Note the question mark in the tweet, so it is not a commitment, but a possibility in his opinion.
I think that this means that there is a good chance that by the time Model 3 ships in volume, the first iteration of FSD software will be complete.
At that time it would be interesting to see a video of Tesla vehicle navigating a route in FSD mode in Pittsburgh, side-by-side with a roof-top Taj Mahal adorned Uber vehicle doing the same.
"But Musk said eliminating ZEV credits, if it should ever happen, would actually improve Tesla's competitive position in the market."
If ZEVs or fed/state credits decline... that hits Tesla hard... it does virtually nothing to the larger manufacturers... this is such a misleading statement... and now with Solar City... would Hillary's Presidency been good for SCTY or TSLA?... she openly announced initiatives for "solar on millions of homes in the US"... so how exactly is a Trump Presidency "good" for Tesla?
nothing is ever bad for Tesla... all you have to do is phrase the bad stuff right.
If ZEVs or fed/state credits decline... that hits Tesla hard... it does virtually nothing to the larger manufacturers... this is such a misleading statement... and now with Solar City... would Hillary's Presidency been good for SCTY or TSLA?... she openly announced initiatives for "solar on millions of homes in the US"... so how exactly is a Trump Presidency "good" for Tesla?
nothing is ever bad for Tesla... all you have to do is phrase the bad stuff right.
I have been trying Mitch
As a longtime LEAPer - my experience -takes about 30 days on those Nov new issues to 'settle' into more normal bid/ask -
Depending on your role in that orchestra, those movie Extras probably getting various amounts of hazard pay-
This all happened a long time ago, in a different millennium and in an almost forgotten medium called tv, but I think that the British comedian B.H. used this format of high-speed film with Yakety Sax as soundtrack as he went about the country leering at young women in bikinis. At least, I think that's the title of the music. Doubt he wrote it.
Edited: Spleinng. I blam keybored.
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You are aware that $9 million of that was in 2015, and $10.8 million was in Q2, 2016, right? None of that was Q3, 2016.
Tesla Sells $20 Million Worth of Tax Credits to Las Vegas Casino
Wow... you think Model X's delivered in Q3 had 40% GM? Wow. That's really, really out there. Very bullish if true. By my calculations, the average gross margin on a Model X in Q2 was around 11%. One of the biggest drags on overall gross margin, not to mention the production line disruption. That's why I thought it was hilarious that various Tesla bears were fawning of the "low" margins on Model S 60's... which I estimate at near 15-16% at the base, and likely average more like 17-18%. In Q3, clearly the Model X achieved much better gross margins. But 40%? That would be phenomenal. The Model S P90D+L in Q2 were definitely up there in the 40% or so gross margin. That why they can take so much off a demo P90D+L and still achieve "normal" 21-25% gross margin.
The overhang from Q3 is roughly the same as in Q2... so you think Tesla is engineering a Q4?
I'll go a little further on this. This isn't investment advice, but it is life advice. My livelihood is impacted by investing because I've done well enough that I can live off my investments. However, in order to do this, it is *absolutely critical* that I always be able to ride out any short-term stock price movements, and by short-term I mean two or three years. If I've invested in a particular stock for a 2019 time horizon, I must be able to completely ignore that investment until 2019 and live without the money which is invested in it. It's important to *never be forced to sell* by the need for cash for your life, including emergencies. So I keep a large wad of uninvested cash. You should never ever be in the situation where you will need to sell when you don't want to in order to raise cash. Never. I tell people not even to start investing until they have an emergency fund.
See, man, that's gambling, and *borrowing* in order to gamble. You have a problem. 95% of your life savings would be highly aggressive investing. What you're doing is gambling. What if you have a medical emergency and need money immediately? Do you have enough of a line of credit that you could still hang on to your Tesla stock until 2019? And can you really afford the interest charges which you're paying on your margin loan? In your position, Tesla could do great and you could be wiped out by a margin call before it does.
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To integrate your position with that of Fallenone, I should point out that not all the High-Frequency Traders are simply making money off bid-ask spreads. Some of the program traders are actually programmed to go short or long by large amounts and they are programmed to do this off of *technical indicators*. I wouldn't be surprised if the "capping behavior" which Papafox sees is not done by humans but by bots.
There probably is. Utilities, industrial operations, and big commercial sites are not required to announce their private contracts to purchase batteries. Tesla is not required to announce those contracts either. I suspect there is a substantial backlog of Powerpack orders, and we've only heard about a couple of them where they decided to make press releases.
I would expect that a number of them are tentative contracts. On a big construction project it can take a startlingly long time to go from a pretty-firm order to a final contract; it's taking me six months just on a small residential project.
Yes, his show was famous for having sped-up slapstick clips set to that music.
Not accurate. Only 1 completely failed (US Leather), though you would have lost a lot of money on National Lead and on Tennesssee Coal Iron and RR.
The rest survived and ended up as subsidiaries of other companies, or were broken up into subsidiaries which became part of other companies:
See The First 12 Dow Components: Where Are They Now? for details.
It is not good for Tesla. It is, however, worse for other American automakers. It makes it much harder for them to put in the necessary investments. If the CARB ZEV credits were removed, then the Chevy Bolt would be dead as a US product. As would be the Nissan Leaf and the BMW i3. The only remaining volume BEVs on the market with any sort of sales in the US would be Tesla's.
As it stands right now, GM has a $2,500 pricing advantage with the Bolt due to way the ZEV credit program is set up. They can monetize the ZEV credits at $5,000 each. Tesla can only sell their ZEV credits at $2,500-$3,000 on occasion. That's built into the Chevy Bolt development. Without this, Tesla's significant advantage in EV component pricing will hold sway.
Since it is unlikely that ZEV credits are removed before the Model 3 launch, the best of all worlds for Tesla (but not for electrification in general) is that the electrification incentives are removed or reduced after Tesla achieved mass volume with the Model 3. The federal tax incentives start to sunset in 2018 for Tesla anyways... and basically, it pulls up the ladder on the ship if these things phase out in 2018 and 2019. Tesla would then have the production cost structure much more like a major automaker while also enjoying the best cost structure for the EV specific components. It also puts pause into the massive infrastructure spend required by other automakers to get going on major electrification movements. Now, China and Europe will still have significant incentives, so Volvo, VW Group, Renault, Nissan, etc. will still look to those markets and build EVs, but European automakers will probably scale back also as compared to a more friendly US market.
We would then not see the various EVs promised by automakers in the 2018-2021 timeframe in the U.S. We would likely see smaller EVs, like the Renault Zoe and the BMW mini EV soldier on in Europe. And China will still be the EV bonanza, but with lower level tech like LiFePO4.
This would obviously be detrimental to the overall electrification effort. As it stands right now, the leading candidate for EPA chief is Kathleen Hartnett White:
Former Texas Regulator White Said To Be Considered For EPA Chief | InsideEPA.com
Kathleen Hartnett-White
That's not good for the U.S. or the planet.
Here's an article she wrote on CO2 and climate change:
Kathleen Hartnett White - Clearing the Air on Climate Change
Edit: PS, if this does come to pass, and then climate change does get proven out to be true as predicted and the U.S. as well as the world moves towards ZEV in transport, it would more likely make FCA, Ford, and GM live out the Kodak story. As it stands right now, they have the capability but not yet the actual resolve to avoid it.
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Ann Goresuch revisited. Yuck. Well, she'd get sued for violating the court order in Massachusetts v. EPA within about two weeks of being appointed, so there's that.
I think Elon has figured out how to finance everything without another equity raise. I currently think he's going to do it and startle everyone.
Options for raising capital, already being used, include:
-- internally generated capital, i.e. operating cash flow. As long as a lot of cars are sold for cash, or leased through partners rather than directly by Tesla, and as long as a lot of solar panels are sold for cash, or leased through partners rather than directly by Tesla/SolarCity, it becomes possible to reliably generate cash from operations. As they expand, SG&A and R&D costs go up slower than volume of sales goes up. Tesla will probably be slightly in the black on this for every quarter until Model 3 starts generating lots of cash.
-- monetizing old SolarCity leases where the primary income stream is still held by SolarCity
-- monetizing Nevada transferrable tax credits
-- monetizing ZEV credits
-- borrowing against inventory in transit
-- mortgaging the huge buildings Tesla owns
Finally, Tesla can always take out straight-up loans, either by issuing bonds or by other means. Tesla has done relatively little of this, though SolarCity has done more. I don't know what interest rates Tesla would get, but they'd certainly be better than the rates SolarCity was getting.
Wow. Perhaps my hope for a return of the securities-lending-fully-paid income stream is not so farfetched.
So here's a different hypothesis. Suppose the shorts have a hell of a lot of ammunition and are crazy enough to keep piling in. But suppose also that many of them were staying out in the period shortly before the merger, for some reason. (Maybe they're algobots and they're simply programmed to avoid stocks with upcoming mergers.) So short activity declined and then resumed with a vengeance once the meeting vote was over. In this case we might see shorts piling in over the next weeks and we might start getting income from lending our shares out again. I personally would like that.
...but it could be next weekend or the weekend after, since I'm not hearing any news this weekend. There may be some arcane condition of the merger which hasn't been met yet (regulatory approval from some obscure source or something).
FWIW, building on what @neroden said about cash.
In my Technical Analysis reading, one author (Bulkowski) sub-categorizes for himself, "cash" as an industry. This helps him identify when it would be advantageous to put cash in "cash" instead of another industry stock for short term trading. He always keeps it as an "industry" for diversification classification.
If you're primarily trading, I think it is a useful way of thinking of cash. Rather than something to be spent to get maximum "value" as most other folks will always have you think (who want your cash). Cash is a key part of your diversification mix.
IMHO, you always keep 1 year emergency fund (very conservative according to others). The rest you can keep and move around into other endeavors as part of your diversification strategy (or walking around money, however you want to see it).
Good luck.
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