take the wave out... make it a sunny day... and keep the bubble text.... that's the reality. you guys see a wave that isn't there.
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Tesla's Supercharger Team was recently laid off. We discuss what this means for the company on today's TMC Podcast streaming live at 1PM PDT. You can watch on X or on YouTube where you can participate in the live chat.
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The company has clearly established themselves as the leader in high end EVs, growing from around $100m in quarterly revenue in 2012 to the most recent $2,300m, 23 fold increase in 4 years. At the same time they have aggressively invested in future growth by developing the new Model X, a revised Model S, new powertrain variants, utility scale energy storage and making strategic acquisitions to continue growth.
They have demonstrated technical leadership in automotive software with over the air updates, the leading available autopilot system and are soon releasing a version 2.0 that is SO FAR AHEAD of anything else.
Within 12 months this will be packaged into a much more affordable platform, similar to the industry leading BMW 3-series platform at a similar cost, but with increased efficiency and performance.
But hey if you want to make investment decisions on "THEY PROMISED ME LIGHTED VISORS" go ahead. I'm sure we won't be seeing you around these parts by this time next year.
Tesla has already installed 300 MWh through Oct 27, 2016. How many contracts were announced for those? We get a few announcements after the fact, like this article: Tesla Energy installs 1.5 MWh Powerpack system at Brea Mall in California
That article includes references to 3 other projects.
The 52 MWh Kauai project and the 80 MWh Southern California Edison Mira Loma substation project are not counted in that figure. These are Q4 projects.
You want TSLA's Q1 and Q2's quarterly earnings report before it happens. Well, wouldn't that be nice.
no... what I see are headlines that say "massive energy project for 10MWh installation!"... and that's nothing... and 300MWh of installations in 1.5 years is also nothing... and between the handful of headlines around small orders plus 80 + 52... that's 50% of all orders they've ever filled have made headlines... if they managed to sign contracts for numerous 50 to 100 MWh orders... I don't think it's too extreme of an idea to expect we'd be hearing about them.
mmd
Active Member
Never thought you will take my suggestion to donate to WIkipedia as a "rude personal attack"
You can use the online configurator for Chevy Sonic. Hatchback option alone adds about $1000. The starting price is a bare bone manual transmission model. Pretty sure Bolt is much better equipped that that. Then, the 60 kwh of battery pack, sturdier frame and regen braking must be adding some significant costs. At $200/kwh, battery is probably $12k.
Sonic configrator: Sonic For Sale: 2016 Chevy Sonic Pricing | Chevrolet
Bolt EV: 2017 Bolt EV: All-Electric Vehicle | Chevrolet
Bolt EV trims:
http://www.chevrolet.com/content/da...os/05_pdf/bolt-ev-trims-comparison-081016.pdf
Anyway, I'm not sure what we are arguing about, as Bolt EV is not based on Sonic, as you agreed now. I won't say anything else on this.
Gerardf
Active Member
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Nope. I assume you've blocked myusername.
(And I agree with your point.)
Please exercise some discretion or self restraint!
Please don't allow one troll to derail this thread!
We shouldn't need to waste our time reading pages of posts, explaining why Tesla isn't a fraud! We all know that already, probably including the troll.
racer26
Active Member
Never thought you will take my suggestion to donate to WIkipedia as a "rude personal attack"
You can use the online configurator for Chevy Sonic. Hatchback option alone adds about $1000. The starting price is a bare bone manual transmission model. Pretty sure Bolt is much better equipped that that. Then, the 60 kwh of battery pack, sturdier frame and regen braking must be adding some significant costs. At $200/kwh, battery is probably $12k.
Sonic configrator: Sonic For Sale: 2016 Chevy Sonic Pricing | Chevrolet
View attachment 202886
Bolt EV: 2017 Bolt EV: All-Electric Vehicle | Chevrolet
Bolt EV trims:
http://www.chevrolet.com/content/da...os/05_pdf/bolt-ev-trims-comparison-081016.pdf
Anyway, I'm not sure what we are arguing about, as Bolt EV is not based on Sonic, as you agreed now. I won't say anything else on this.
To say Bolt is not based on Sonic is to be purposely obtuse.
Yes, according to GM, it's 'not the same platform'. What GM means when they say that, is that they can't just take the Bolt EV bits and stick them to a Sonic chassis rolling off the line - a thing you actually can do for many of GMs badge engineered brethren like Pontiac Sunfire/Chevy Cavalier that do 'share' their body platforms
They started with the design for a Sonic, and made an EV. To achieve a good EV, they realized that they needed to make significant changes to it, and did them. It's better than the classic compliance car approach of taking an ICEV chassis and sticking batteries where the gas tank was and an electric motor where the engine was, but it's still a far cry from being a totally new design from first principles.
mmd
Active Member
@winfield100, It is funny that you don't see a problem in what you just said. There is rapid efficiency degradation in panels at 25 years. While comparably priced slate roofs last 100-200 years, your solar roof tiles will not produce any electricity after 20-25 years. You will then either need to add regular panels on top of the expensive roofs, or replace the roof after 25 years.
Since your roof always had Asphalt shingles, you will need to check with a structural engineer to make sure the house frame is capable to hold a heavier glass/tile roofing. My concrete roof tiles each weigh 8 lbs. That's like 25000 lbs of weight on top of my house.
BTW, I'm curious how much you paid to remove and reinstall the panels when re-roofing. My roof is 40 years old. They made fixes before installing panels, and said it should cost $500 to remove and reinstall the panels if I re-roof later.
SunCatcher
Member
I found myself wishing the new Tesla video showing full autopilot would give the option to watch in normal speed (not sped up, as in the video). Then, just found this on YouTube;
Cool to see how, at 1:30, the car knows to slow for the passing cyclist. Then, at an all way stop, it knows when it's its turn to proceed. Wow.
Cool to see how, at 1:30, the car knows to slow for the passing cyclist. Then, at an all way stop, it knows when it's its turn to proceed. Wow.
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Here you go
"That means that a panel manufactured today should produce 92% of its original power after 20 years, quite a bit higher than the 80% estimated by the 1% rule."
What Is the Lifespan of a Solar Panel? > ENGINEERING.com
http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/51664.pdf
Ah, no. The 300 MWh installed do not include these two big projects. The 300MWh installed do not have big announcements.
AMS has a master agreement for 500 MWh. Sometimes they announce them, like this one for 34 MWh:
Tesla and AMS win another major energy storage contract, 34 MWh of battery capacity for water treatment facilities
Also not counted in the 300 MWh.
I am thinking you haven't bothered to do your homework:
Tesla and SolarCity in talks for ‘a number of large’ utility scale energy storage installations
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Will TE have "material" revenue for tesla in Q4? There's the two major installs at Mira Loma CA and Kauai...
you have somewhat confused me on several points
1) why would solar roof tiles die after 20-25 years? I personally know folks last 30-40+ years with PV still working, some panels made by ARCO, my BP, ASi are still cranking after almost 20 years, even if they started @ 1/5 the power output of present ones. They have deteriorated from 3.8% to ~3.3 - 3.4%
2) what rapid degradation? its 0.5% per year of remaining and usually better and it doesnt go from 80% to 0% (x^y)
3) my point was, --->3 asphalt roofs in 33 years vs a complete PV roof once (or asphalt again every 1/6 century)
4) If I have a 1,500sqft roof, exposed to the sun, the north side will get less in the northern hemisphere, (cosine of incident light) complete PV coverage that is close to a 14-16kW array would get me roughly 20,000kWh/year. If i derate it by 50%, I still get more than I presently use. you are not making sense. I think you frankly should go to homepower.com as they have more basic and advanced information
PVWatts Calculator
I also realize this whole thing is somewhat way off topic, but it's the weekend, and
I see Tesla Energy as something that will far surpass Tesla vehicles, provide upward stock pressure and have felt this way for several years.
I'm not trying to be contentious, and will respect the group
Perhapes the stock is not stuck in the mud as much as it has settled in where the market thinks the value is and absent any significant new information, it will stay in that range.
I also don't see the ultra negativity in the market. According to the Nasdaq site, TSLA has a consensus estimate of 210 in 12 months which would be a great increase from the 185 it is at today! In addition, the community rating is BULLISH with 78% of 551 ratings. And as you point out, there are people would still hold if the stock were at 100.
It isn't about haters and a new raise. Raising money at $175-$180 share may be a challenge if the people he expects to raise it from were the same organizations that put money in at $215 or so earlier this year.
Depends on the exact timing. I don't know if they will bill in stages, or exactly how the revenue recognition works on the TE side. The Hawaii project is definitely a PPA, so lease accounting applies there. It's solar + storage. Not sure how TSLA + SCTY will report Q4.
As it stands, the "Services and other" revenue section increased to $150 million, or a 78% YoY increase. We don't know the break down yet.
There is going to be the era before the Gigafactory cell production and the era after. In the Q2 to Q3 time period, we should start seeing the financial results. For the 2017 overall, TE should be a cash generator.
I've already seen that last article... notice it's description of a "very large utility-scale project":
"Tesla and SolarCity have been working on over 60 MWh of projects together, therefore, doubling the total capacity with a single project would mean that we are talking about very large utility-scale projects here."
that's 60MWh... at $400/kWh that's $24 million... also known as "nothing" for a $30 billion company.
this is exactly what I'm talking about... but I don't think you quite understand... in order for TE to be substantial... they need many GWh per year... or 100s of those projects described above per year.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
Fixed that for you
.
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Yeah, I think you are right... Tesla will likely fall short of that $1 trillion dollar valuation in 2017. After all, each GWh of stationary storage likely only brings in $75 to $100 million in gross profit at volume. So, what is substantial GWh's... like say, a modest 4 GWH in 2017 would only be $300 to 400 million in gross profit. That's nothing. It won't even be a blip on Tesla's 10-Q. And if they only manage to ship 10 GWh in 2018, that's again nearly nothing... only $750 million to $1 billion gross profit. They have a shot at doubling those figures, btw. We'll see soon enough.
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