Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[mrdoubleb]

Oh. My. God.

Get ready to say goodbye to a lot of electric cars

Queue the "The end is near for the EV" billboard.

haha the comment section is comedy gold. Especially like the commenter who says Tesla is toast after Elon Musk goes to jail.
I can't decide what's sadder: If people like that are just trolling or if they truly believe what they say. Probably the latter...

 

[schonelucht]

Anyone have any insight around whether the new "2 year lease" is popular with customers?

I've seen some good interest on some threads. Especially around demo/inventory cars.

Exactly. I too have a feeling that the two year lease options are really popular to snap up high end inventory pre-facelift cars from inventory. Unfortunately that makes it really hard to estimate just how popular they are. At least on ev-cpo the classic Model S inventory is significantly down, so I think it is really working.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Apple no longer a growth stock. That cash is coming to Tesla....Mark my words.

 

[racer26]

We're all going to have a healthy chuckle in a year or two when Tesla demonstrates that you can in fact have a profitable EV only company. The naysayers are kind of correct, in that all the other automakers sell EVs at a loss, in order to earn ZEV credits so they can continue to sell high profit trucks.

I still think that the longer this situation is allowed to continue by the incumbent automakers though, the bigger Tesla is going to open the gap on their lead. Anybody tries to actually compete with a similarly compelling car, and Tesla can just drop their prices.

 

[joseph7h]

Someone just dumped 50k shares between 10:32~46 AM EDT. With a lot of uncertainties going to Q3 delivery numbers in a month (i c a number around 20k), maybe time to sell it and wait for good news on M3 (prob. mid next year) before reentering?

 

[3Victoria]

Likely shorts trying to test 220 resistance. Longs are patiently waiting for Q3 results and closing of SCTY deal.

 

[sub]

I know I've looked at the 2 year lease numbers a few times since they came out. If I didn't have a daughter turning 16 in a year and an i3 lease ending next summer, I would dump the 335d for a 2 year lease while I wait for model 3. I would like my daughter (only child) to never have to drive an ICE but as of right now it looks like the diesel will be her first car.

 

[Quesder]

so miserable. $1.46 is consumed in 30 min and now red. Where are the longs?

 

[doctoxics]

Someone just dumped 50k shares between 10:32~46 AM EDT. With a lot of uncertainties going to Q3 delivery numbers in a month (i c a number around 20k), maybe time to sell it and wait for good news on M3 (prob. mid next year) before reentering?

The Q3 delivery number is now looking somewhat confused. Taking Tesla at their word of nearly 2,000 cars/week at the beginning of Q3 and projecting to 2,200 cars/week at the end of Q3 would result in ~27,000 cars produced. Then there is their word that 5,000 cars were in transit at the end of Q2. So, just how many cars, out of a possible 32,000 produced, are to be delivered in Q3? Finally, there is the question of VINs which seem to suggest that the number of cars being produced is considerably less than 2,000/week. If Tesla produces and delivers 27,000 cars in Q3, it would be a mistake to not be fully invested now. However, if the number is more like 20,000, it will still represent progress, but will be a considerable disappointment in terms of Model X and Model S ramps and Tesla's statements of current and projected production rates. If your investment time-frame is long-term, better to stay in just in case Q3 is the blowout quarter that Tesla's own numbers suggest it might be.

 

[joseph7h]

so miserable. $1.46 is consumed in 30 min and now red. Where are the longs?

I know there're a lot of Tesla fans (including me) in this board. However the stock performance in last 2~3 years is really under par comparing to other hot names such as AMZN/FB. With Q1 and Q2 misses so big, and then SCTY deal, my belief in EM is really fading.
Until the company beats street estimates both top and bottom line, I don't see any positive development for Tesla share holders.

Everybody invested in Tesla always say stay focused on long term, which has been an excuse long for me to sell any of my tesla shares. Maybe I am wrong, and two quotes are right, "don't be too near sighted, neither far sighted", and "in the long term, we all die".

 

[doctoxics]

so miserable. $1.46 is consumed in 30 min and now red. Where are the longs?

On vacation.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Tesla is working to turn its vehicles into Wi-Fi hotspots, introduces new chip and module

 

[Fallenone]

The Q3 delivery number is now looking somewhat confused. Taking Tesla at their word of nearly 2,000 cars/week at the beginning of Q3 and projecting to 2,200 cars/week at the end of Q3 would result in ~27,000 cars produced. Then there is their word that 5,000 cars were in transit at the end of Q2. So, just how many cars, out of a possible 32,000 produced, are to be delivered in Q3? Finally, there is the question of VINs which seem to suggest that the number of cars being produced is considerably less than 2,000/week. If Tesla produces and delivers 27,000 cars in Q3, it would be a mistake to not be fully invested now. However, if the number is more like 20,000, it will still represent progress, but will be a considerable disappointment in terms of Model X and Model S ramps and Tesla's statements of current and projected production rates. If your investment time-frame is long-term, better to stay in just in case Q3 is the blowout quarter that Tesla's own numbers suggest it might be.

Even with an average of 2100/week, Q3 total production would be ~25k cars, not 27k. And some problems in some area would almost certainly lower the average production rate, that's just how real life is. And 5k was in pipeline at the end of Q2, I expect there will also be 4k~5k in pipeline at the end of Q3, it's not realistic to add the 5k to the total Q3 production and raising the possible deliverable cars by that number.

 

[joseph7h]

The Q3 delivery number is now looking somewhat confused. Taking Tesla at their word of nearly 2,000 cars/week at the beginning of Q3 and projecting to 2,200 cars/week at the end of Q3 would result in ~27,000 cars produced. Then there is their word that 5,000 cars were in transit at the end of Q2. So, just how many cars, out of a possible 32,000 produced, are to be delivered in Q3? Finally, there is the question of VINs which seem to suggest that the number of cars being produced is considerably less than 2,000/week. If Tesla produces and delivers 27,000 cars in Q3, it would be a mistake to not be fully invested now. However, if the number is more like 20,000, it will still represent progress, but will be a considerable disappointment in terms of Model X and Model S ramps and Tesla's statements of current and projected production rates. If your investment time-frame is long-term, better to stay in just in case Q3 is the blowout quarter that Tesla's own numbers suggest it might be.

Thanks for the insights! Tesla has disappointed in every single quarter that I can remember and Musk always has excuses (and detailed explanations) why delivery goals are not met. With Model S deliveries now trending down and all kinds of new ways Tesla now uses to sell more cars, there's maybe indeed some slowness on the demand side. So I am not optimistic at all in Q3 deliveries, and if Q3 is of 20k, the whole year target is almost for sure a miss!

Of course, M3 (deliveries and margin) will tell if Tesla has a future or not. But that's too far for anyone to know and won't help the stock price.

 

[dmckinstry]

On vacation.

Or no available cash.

 

[electracity]

Thanks for the insights! Tesla has disappointed in every single quarter that I can remember and Musk always has excuses (and detailed explanations) why delivery goals are not met. With Model S deliveries now trending down and all kinds of new ways Tesla now uses to sell more cars, there's maybe indeed some slowness on the demand side. So I am not optimistic at all in Q3 deliveries, and if Q3 is of 20k, the whole year target is almost for sure a miss!

Of course, M3 (deliveries and margin) will tell if Tesla has a future or not. But that's too far for anyone to know and won't help the stock price.

Were you disappointed in Q4 2105?

Model S deliveries over the next four quarter will likely be determined in Tesla's ability to "pull the trigger" on AP2.0. Model S buyers are sophisticated and many are waiting.

 

[electracity]

so miserable. $1.46 is consumed in 30 min and now red. Where are the longs?

Slowly coming to the realization of the risk added by purchasing SCTY.

 

[dandurston]

The Q3 delivery number is now looking somewhat confused. Taking Tesla at their word of nearly 2,000 cars/week at the beginning of Q3 and projecting to 2,200 cars/week at the end of Q3 would result in ~27,000 cars produced. Then there is their word that 5,000 cars were in transit at the end of Q2. So, just how many cars, out of a possible 32,000 produced, are to be delivered in Q3? Finally, there is the question of VINs which seem to suggest that the number of cars being produced is considerably less than 2,000/week. If Tesla produces and delivers 27,000 cars in Q3, it would be a mistake to not be fully invested now. However, if the number is more like 20,000, it will still represent progress, but will be a considerable disappointment in terms of Model X and Model S ramps and Tesla's statements of current and projected production rates. If your investment time-frame is long-term, better to stay in just in case Q3 is the blowout quarter that Tesla's own numbers suggest it might be.

"Nearly 2000" probably means 1900/wk and they aren't likely to have a linear ramp to 2200. Rather - if this is anything like how Tesla usually does things - they'll make a jump to "near 2200" (actually 2100) right near the end of the quarter. So I think a reasonable production estimate is 1950/wk * 12 weeks = 23400. Tesla will probably deliver 90% of these (21k).

Regarding the left-over 5k cars, they expected to have ~3k in the pipeline and they had 5k, so there was really only an extra 2k cars in the pipeline compared to what is normally there. So +2k for the the bulge in the pipeline being delivered and we have 23k cars delivered in Q3.

If Tesla can pull of 23k and get demand high enough, then they have a shot at 50k in H2 but it would still take ~2300/wk + a big inventory push. The big unknown for the next year is Model X demand. Right now it's about 1/2 of Model S demand. If the X can win some big awards and get some good publicity then Tesla will be all set for demand leading into Model 3. If it's stays like it is, then they're going to have rely on more margin reducing demand levers to push volumes.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Or no available cash.

I scraped a bit and added some at $219.75 to my long term holdings...

 

[FredTMC]

Thanks for the insights! Tesla has disappointed in every single quarter that I can remember and Musk always has excuses (and detailed explanations) why delivery goals are not met. With Model S deliveries now trending down and all kinds of new ways Tesla now uses to sell more cars, there's maybe indeed some slowness on the demand side. So I am not optimistic at all in Q3 deliveries, and if Q3 is of 20k, the whole year target is almost for sure a miss!

Yes, tesla (Elon) has an established record now of setting very aggressive guidance. Everyone knows this now including Wall Street.

So, I doubt Wall Street will be shocked if tesla comes in under 50K deliveries for 2H 2016. I don't believe the stock will get crushed as a result. Tesla is producing cars at their highest rate ever and has substantial growth YoY.