Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Lessmog]

*kay, folks, seeya lidar!

 

[MitchJi]

I hope not! That would be an excellent way to tank the SP!
1.You realize that the market reasons by analogy?
2. What happened the last time that Tesla produced a CUV based on a sedan at the same time?

I'd consider selling all of our calls and buying puts!

Tesla *hasn't* produced a CUV based on a sedan at the same time for simultaneous release before.

Sure, Model X had a boatload of delays, but there is no reason to believe that should be true of Model Y any more than it is of Model 3 (which is to say that its not, because there is a completely different mentality at play.)

I would think that expanding the product line from 2 products to 4 in one fell swoop would be a good thing, not a bad thing. And with TMTBTM behind it all? I have to believe that its being designed to just be able to start to build MY when its ready.

You realize that your reply didn't address either of my points?

Those points addressed the market perception. On a practical level doubling or tripling the complexity and difficulty of an already very ambitious schedule sounds more like hubris squared to me.

Irrelevant anyway because when Elon announced the July 2017 completion date for M3 parts he stated that it would be better to keep the date secret, but that's impossible due to several thousand suppliers. How long do you you think they could keep MY parts orders secret?

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

https://solarbonds.solarcity.com/assets/bond_document/184/?filename=prospectus

Musk & cousins buying $100M of $124M offering.

So that means that they're personally providing solar city the bridge loan till the deal closes right? Is that a positive for TSLA? Sorry, I honestly don't understand how to read that document.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

https://solarbonds.solarcity.com/assets/bond_document/184/?filename=prospectus

Musk & cousins buying $100M of $124M offering.

Very interesting. It seems the Trolls on here who claimed Elon, Lyndon, and others weren't allowed to increase their position in SolarCity, before the merger was completed were 100% wrong.

 

[everman]

Interesting... the site was updated to P100D for a while, but is now back to listing P90D (but still showing 0-60 in 2.5s) and some of the options are broken.

 

[MitchJi]

EDIT: Before someone says why not just keep making the cells bigger, there are other constraints on total pack efficiency. If you make the cells a larger diameter, you waste more of the overall pack volume on the air gaps between the cells because they don't fit together perfectly.

Sounds great but if you do the math, which I won't repeat again [ already explained to Julian and others at great length and detail], the increase in capacity due to increased cell diameter is exactly matched by the reduction in the number of cells. They do gain about 7% due to the increased cell length.

RE-EDIT: There is 1.49x the active material volume in the 21-70 as in the 18650. Theoretically, you should be able to use 66% of the number of cells to come out with the same capacity. Depending on how much of the cost is packaging of the cell vs active material cost, that could add up to big savings when spread over a pack's worth of cells.

Bingo! The larger format cells are largely about cost reductions.

 

[moe.salih]

AP upgrade increased by $500 to $3k. Maybe they're sneaking in new hardware? Discuss.

 

[Irishjugg]

https://solarbonds.solarcity.com/assets/bond_document/184/?filename=prospectus

Musk & cousins buying $100M of $124M offering.

I'm not sure how to feel about this.

Obviously they consider these to be a solid investment or they wouldn't park their money in them, but at the same time the optics aren't great.

Maybe I should buy a few.

 

[pGo]

I'm not sure how to feel about this.

Obviously they consider these to be a solid investment or they wouldn't park their money in them, but at the same time the optics aren't great.

Maybe I should buy a few.

The way I read it is it is hard to borrow money from outside. Hence, insiders specially Musk is purchasing them.

 

[VanE]

A bit OT, but do any of you know where I could get the opening and closing prices of TSLA of last few years in one table?

 

[dha]

A bit OT, but do any of you know where I could get the opening and closing prices of TSLA of last few years in one table?

www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/historical

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Some after hours action? Positive action? Shocking!

 

[Fallenone]

I think one significant point in today's announcement is that Tesla is starting to produce the new pack. And they have 11 months of practice before the earliest not possible date for Model 3. Even though production rate now is only 200/week, it's good to fine tune the lines with so much time. This is significant because the battery cells and battery pack are the two most important components in the 3 and are also the two most different components compared to the S (excluding the new P100D). Should help a lot for next year's initial ramp up.

 

[30seconds]

Once again Tesla is showing how much faster they are moving vs. the rest of the industry.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Anyone else wondering why

The way I read it is it is hard to borrow money from outside. Hence, insiders specially Musk is purchasing them.

I'm viewing this as a sign the merger will happen soon, and Elon is confident Tesla's stock will go much higher. SolarCity bonds aren't reflecting the reality about SolarCity or Tesla. When the merger is complete, they will be converted to Tesla bonds and will look like a no brainier investment.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Anyone else wondering why


I'm viewing this as a sign the merger will happen soon, and Elon is confident Tesla's stock will go much higher. SolarCity bonds aren't reflecting the reality about SolarCity or Tesla. When the merger is complete, they will be converted to Tesla bonds and will look like a no brainier investment.

Musk has something up his sleeve for sure. Likely reason for after hours move. Good point!!

 

[MitchJi]

I think one significant point in today's announcement is that Tesla is starting to produce the new pack. And they have 11 months of practice before the earliest not possible date for Model 3. Even though production rate now is only 200/week, it's good to fine tune the lines with so much time. This is significant because the battery cells and battery pack are the two most important components in the 3 and are also the two most different components compared to the S (excluding the new P100D). Should help a lot for next year's initial ramp up.

A new design and layout of packs with the old cell format. Not sure how that's relevant for the M3.

Plus I don't think it's necessary for them to practice with the new packs anyway.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Very interesting that this didn't get any meaningful coverage today. Probably means Elon is planning another event to explain why this will be significant for Tesla and next Gen Autopilot.

Tesla Motors Partner Nvidia Pops Hood On Autonomous Driving Engine

 

[Fallenone]

A new design and layout of packs with the old cell format. Not sure how that's relevant for the M3.

Plus I don't think it's necessary for them to practice with the new packs anyway.

Unless Tesla is going to redesign all the cooling devices, pack format, electronics in the pack again in a year, this pack will be able to suit old and new cells IMO. And I very much doubt they are designing this pack specifically for the P100D. Having time to reiterate a new design is good for reliability and cost.

 

[MartinAustin]

If y'all remember I pointed out a few days ago that the "Next Gen Grey" seats were suddenly not available until mid-2017... did anyone comment that the "Ultra-White Premium Seats" are now available (in the front seats) for the Model S? 'Cos it looks like they are. $2500.

But only on the P100D. Same options as Model X - white/tan/black (no grey)

One more reason I now want the new car.

BUT BRING BACK GREY!!!