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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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MonroeSS said:
Not everyone is buying a car to impress other people, make them look important or trying to compensate for their shortcomings. I am already reading online comments that the Model 3 will get you laid but the Bolt wont."

What's wrong with getting laid? Is it suddenly not fashionable? :)

The same thing that is "wrong" with selecting Model S over Ford Taurus ...
 
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Tesla is also getting ZEV credits it can sell for every Model 3 they build.

I agree with MonroeSS on the ZEV credit front. each credit is worth at most $x to Tesla, but for GM, each credit can be leveraged towards the sale of more profitable trucks/SUV's, making it possible for GM to literally give away all the bolts and still be net profitable. The 30-40k bolts per year sales goal is simply their objective to be able to sell all the trucks they can (look at all the car makers whose sedans and economy car sales have tanked while their truck/suv sales have grown - with record profits to boot!). If sales of the bolt falls below expectations, they'll simply discount the car until sales rise again. A $10k discount per bolt, translates to only a $300 million hit to their bottom line. That's the game their playing and why they don't care.
 
Racer, you are entitled to your own opinion not your own facts. EV's have less maintenance? Ask 30,000 Nissan Versa (cheapest new car in America) buyers in 2014 and 30,000 Model S buyers from 2014 if which group had to make more service center visits. How many Hyundai Accents (ASP $13,000) made in 2014 had their motor replaced? Want to compare service visits of a Model X buyer in 2016 vs a Kia Rio buyer in 2016?

EVs have fewer moving parts and less things to fail but that doesn't there are fewer failures. Computers have fewer moving parts than cars. How many computers are usable after 5 years and how many cars are running fine after 10 years with just tires and oil changes? Ask any Model S owner who also owned/owns a Volt which car needed fewer service visits.

GM doesn't build a Gigafactory because to them making their own batteries is the same as owning their own rubber plantations or tire manufacturing plants. 100% of their cars need tires/rubber but only about 0.5% of their cars need lithium batteries. Tesla obviously has a different approach to battery production. A Model 3 is make or break for them (S and X do not have the volumes necessary to be net profitable). The Bolt will contribute 0.4% of GM Global sales in the best case scenario and will contribute 0.0% to their net profit. Model 3 will contribute 60 to 70% of Tesla global sales and about 50% of their net profit. Now you know GM doesn't really care as much as they should. You also assume the Model 3 will be cheaper than the Bolt for the same range when neither Chevy nor Tesla has released price, specs and option packages? It may well be but don't forget Tesla has to make a 20% gross profit on the Model 3 but Chevy can sell the Bolt for $20K under cost. One Bolt=4 ZEV credits=$20,000 value. Every 250 Bolts sold will allow them to sell 10,000 high profit SUVs (2.5 ZEV requirement in 2018).

How does a Bolt compete against the Sonic? It is larger, faster, full EV (more people care about this than you can imagine), the first 200+ mile EV under $40K to name a few. OTOH How does a Model S 60 compete against a Taurus SHO? The Taurus SHO is faster, loaded to the hilt, better looking (subjective) and $20,000 cheaper. Not everyone is buying a car to impress other people, make them look important or trying to compensate for their shortcomings. I am already reading online comments that the Model 3 will get you laid but the Bolt wont. People who think only a car can get them laid are people who don't IMO. If looks matter, 90% of the cars would have never been sold. Mazda always made/makes the best looking, best performing cars in their respective segments. Everyone who follows the auto industry knows this. 99% of the population does not care and Mazda's sales numbers prove this.

Why doesn't anyone compete with Tesla even after 4 years? Tesla is showing them why they shouldn't 4 times a year, every time they report earnings. The other automakers may not see what you see and you can't blame them for that. You may think they are wrong and will pay for it dearly, but they are entitled to their own beliefs similar to Tesla naysayers. They are also free to not see what you see. Take the current presidential campaign as an example. One candidate is seen as honest, intelligent, straight shooter, tells it as it is, strong, and tough by his/her followers and they really believe it too. The opposite camp sees the same person as dishonest, dumb, weak and unstable and they really believe this too. So how come different people have completely different opinions about the same individual? Each group really believes they have the correct opinion and the other group is wrong. The same applies to Tesla. Half the group sees a disaster when they read the earnings release while the other half sees puppies and rainbows. Both groups think they are correct and the others are wrong.
This is just my opinion: EVs will become significantly more reliable than gasoline cars. That's basic physics. Give it a few years, Tesla's cars will become the most reliable cars. I think the comparison is pointless. Pretty soon gasoline cars will disappear from the market. Anyone still buying VHS video player? CD? Floppy Disk? Film camera? Tube TV?
 
This is just my opinion: EVs will become significantly more reliable than gasoline cars. That's basic physics. Give it a few years, Tesla's cars will become the most reliable cars. I think the comparison is pointless. Pretty soon gasoline cars will disappear from the market. Anyone still buying VHS video player? CD? Floppy Disk? Film camera? Tube TV?

You forgot making phone call from the public phone booth...
 
I'm not sure which part of this post is most incorrect.

1) Using an early Model S or X as an example for comparing reliability with any other car is simply cherry-picking.

2) GM would MOST CERTAINLY own the rubber plantations if rubber was their most expensive part of the car.

3) The Bolt is a $40,000 Chevy. It won't succeed the same way the Cadillac EV was $70,000....for a Cadillac. People buy the S because it's a better car than the competition for the same price.

4) You're right. No one should compete with Tesla because they lose money. Just like Sears shouldn't have competed with Amazon because Amazon lost money for years.

1) Comparing moving parts between Electric and ICE motors and assuming higher reliability isn't?

2) No, but GM or none of the other automakers own aluminium smelters or bauxite mines just because Aluminium is the most expensive part of a car (engine block, transmission and increased use as sheet metal)

3) The ELR was the most expensive plugin with the shortest range. The Bolt will the cheapest EV with the longest range (at least until the Model 3 is out). No ones knows if the Bolt or the Model 3 will have more EV range per dollar until a year from now when Tesla also releases pricing. We also don't know if Chevy will lower their price a year from now. Lease rates are a big unknown. In 2011, the Volt cost $40,000 and went 37 miles to charge. 4 years later in, in 2015, the Volt went 50% farther and cost $8,000 less. Who knows what the Bolt will look like, cost and how far it will travel 4 years from now?
The most popular EV ever in modern times was the Nissan Leaf, selling 66,000 units in a single year, more than any other EV has ever achieved. The Bolt will only cost a little more, has more room than full size sedans and travel 120% more to a charge than the Leaf. You still think it won't do very well?

4)Again, your belief that Tesla is like Amazon and I am sure you strongly believe yours is the correct belief. Other believe that Tesla is like Blackberry, Enron or Sun Edison and they also strongly believe they are right.

Edit : Point 2 - I am not saying owning a battery factory is a stupid choice. I am just saying GM wouldn't own one because only 0.5% of their cars will have Li batteries but 100% of Tesla cars do and it makes sense for Tesla.
 
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4)Again, your belief that Tesla is like Amazon and I am sure you strongly believe yours is the correct belief. Other believe that Tesla is like Blackberry, Enron or Sun Edison and they also strongly believe they are right.

In case you would like to record your view for posterity (I take it you are in the "Enron" rather than the "Amazon" camp), you may want to consider this handy Prediction Thread:

Prediction Thread - "You Called It"
 
The Bolt will only cost a little more, has more room than full size sedans and travel 120% more to a charge than the Leaf. You still think it won't do very well?

You really think the bolt will have more room than a full size sedan? There's a reason you never see it photographed alongside other vehicles. It's built on the Spark platform.
bolt_11-600-001.jpg
 
4)Again, your belief that Tesla is like Amazon and I am sure you strongly believe yours is the correct belief. Other believe that Tesla is like Blackberry, Enron or Sun Edison and they also strongly believe they are right.

This never gets old...

The fact that both sides believe that they are right does not MAKE both of them right...

 
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3) The ELR was the most expensive plugin with the shortest range. The Bolt will the cheapest EV with the longest range (at least until the Model 3 is out). No ones knows if the Bolt or the Model 3 will have more EV range per dollar until a year from now when Tesla also releases pricing. We also don't know if Chevy will lower their price a year from now. Lease rates are a big unknown. In 2011, the Volt cost $40,000 and went 37 miles to charge. 4 years later in, in 2015, the Volt went 50% farther and cost $8,000 less. Who knows what the Bolt will look like, cost and how far it will travel 4 years from now?
The most popular EV ever in modern times was the Nissan Leaf, selling 66,000 units in a single year, more than any other EV has ever achieved. The Bolt will only cost a little more, has more room than full size sedans and travel 120% more to a charge than the Leaf. You still think it won't do very well?

It won't do very well because it can't. GM's deal with LG Chem for its batteries won't support a sales rate in excess of 30K bolts per year.

You keep stating that the range per dollar is unknown. I'll grant you that exact values aren't known, but there are enough quantities known to conclusively say the Model 3 will deliver greater miles of range per dollar. Tesla has publicly stated, the $35k base model, will achieve at least 215mi of range, and maybe more. GM has stated the $37,500 Bolt will achieve at least 200mi. More money, lower minimum. Tesla wins.

If you want to look at it another way, the bolt has a published Cd of 0.32. Model 3 is 0.21. Bolt has a published battery size of 60kWh. Tesla has said that Model 3 will be offered in a variant with less than 60 -- the expectation is 55kWh.

Aerodynamic & rolling resistance, power & MPG calculator - EcoModder.com

A Bolt, assuming 25.8sqft frontal area, 0.32 Cd and .008 Crr will need almost 18.5kW to break through the air at 70mph. 60kWh / 18.5 = 3.25 hours of run time @ 70mph = 227mi of range, assuming you maintain steady state 70mph with no acceleration losses and traffic and never slow down at all. This is the best case scenario the physics allows for.
 
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