Feeling the heat from the significant other for holding so much our our money in TSLA.
Lets hope the gigafactory party on Friday has steak on the menu.
Lets hope the gigafactory party on Friday has steak on the menu.
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racer26
Active Member
I know the feeling. The disappointment after the flop that was SMP2 was only tempered by my expectation of redemption at GF next week.
MTL_HABS1909
Active Member
If you're only in it for very short term gain/profit I understand. Otherwise, there's no sense in worrying about short term dips in the SP. If you look at the big picture (SMP2) it is blatantly obvious that Tesla is years ahead of the competition. Give it a while and the big SP increases will occur.
racer26
Active Member
Sold my house about 2 months ago and moved to a rental property (which sounds backwards, but was economically the right decision). I am investing with the equity I had, some of it for the long term, but my investing goal is to earn enough in the short term to pay for the Model 3 I have reserved by the time I have to pay for it. That means aggressive investing with some, as 'safe' investments won't get me to my goal at their typical returns. So I got burned this week on the slip on some options that would have paid off huge if SMP2 had been received well.
LargeHamCollider
Battery cells != scalable
This is false, and should be totally implausible to anyone even slightly familiar with trucking. Most trucks are operated by relatively large and highly sophisticated companies I'd bet you 10k that they consider costs for the complete product cycle.
As an aside this thread has been taken over by noobs (of which I am one) it was a much better thread when the rookies let fluxcap, Renz, jhm, capitalist oppressor et al do the talking.
Worth repeating...and must add DaveT.
Our loss (for a long while now) that Capitalist Oppressor made so much he probably retired to an island somewhere, I miss his wisdom the most.
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I suspect Tesla doing semis is more than just electrification and positioning for full truck automation. If Tesla could make trucks where one driver could move two full sized trucks between terminals, the economics would be compelling.
Electrification alone probably makes more sense for local trucks rather than OTR semis.
Electrification alone probably makes more sense for local trucks rather than OTR semis.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
IMO the biggest problem all of "the sky is falling" and "Elon is an idiot" emotional posts that happen whenever Tesla does anything that triggers a short term dip in the SP. One of the worst recent examples was the SCTY acquisition announcement. What exacerbated the problem is that most of the negativity was based on incorrect information.
And Elon said that when Tesla completed their due diligence he believed the case would be compelling. It's pretty bad that people wouldn't be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, but it's even worse that most of the people posting the negative comments had not even listened closely enough to the explanatory call to even aware of that fact he had said that.
The result was that we were all subjected to a storm of misinformation.
A long time ago I had a broker who kept telling me I had too much Apple stock so finally to make him happy I sold 1000 shares. That was long before the 7 for 1 split. I made money but I could have made a lot more had I held on to that block. Luckily I held on to the rest of my AAPL but he doesn''t bother me any more about how I accumulate stock any more. That said TSLA is a risky stock short term. There is huge long term upside potential, but short term the manipulators will find their mark whenever they can.
MitchJi
Trying to learn kindness, patience & forgiveness
I have been wondering if it's even possible for the SCTY acquisition vote not to trigger a squeeze. Elon recently tweeted that the big financial institutions (he mentioned Fidelity) are mostly in favor of this, which implies that they will vote. The tweet that Vlad posted stated that some pension funds are obligated by their bylaws to vote.
Two questions:
1. Is it possible for Fidelity, or any other institutions to vote without recalling their shares?
2. Even if the only institution that recalls shares to vote is Fidelity given the number of shares they hold is it even possible for them to do that without triggering a squeeze?
Edit Addition:
If this happens and you miss the upswing please remember that you will still have the opportunity to profit when the price drops after the squeeze by buying puts.
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Alright, back to short term discussion.. Earnings coming up. Anyone thinks Tesla will reiterate margin and delivery goals. That's going to give the direction to the stock. I am hopeful about delivery around 75-80k for the year, however I do not believe they will get to 30% margins for MS and 25% on MX. The 60s are deal breaker to me for margins. I don't believe GF advantages will come soon enough for MS and MX battery packs as Elon said that Panasonic will continue to support both.
Current MS order rates per VIN assignments show incoming rate of just over 1000 cars /week. For MX it is hard to say and may be driven based on how fast MX production ramps up.
Current MS order rates per VIN assignments show incoming rate of just over 1000 cars /week. For MX it is hard to say and may be driven based on how fast MX production ramps up.
Unlikely, Tesla does not get that granular with its explanations. It's possible COGS is decreased by charging off expenses while cars are in inventory/loaner service to SG&A. If so, the reduced price (revenue) would be matched by a corresponding reduction in COGS so the the GM % remains about the same as if the car were sold as a bespoke order. Operating margin may be a better metric to focus on than gross margin.
Context is important. Hyperloop is an idea that sprung from California considering building a high-speed train from LA to SF. The speed of that train was such that it just wasn't very compelling. Hyperloop would literally enable commuting from SF to LA for work since it's quite a bit faster. If memory serves the point was that building one wasn't that much more expensive than conventional (well, conventional in any other developed country other than US) magnetic high-speed train route. But value is quite a bit better. Lower running cost and much higher speed.
Gone for conferences and travel for a little more than a month and so many posts need to read every one or two days. Feel like I can never catch up but by passing on some and ignoring a few people somehow I managed. Finally had some time to do some calculations on Q2 ER results here. Warning, a lot of speculations on my side without much solid support other than the Q2 delivery number and previous financial numbers.
On the revenue side:
We know Q2 delivery numbers in detailed breakdown between S and X. We also know they introduced the S60 pretty late and I suspect none of those were delivered and assumed as much in my calculations. I assume the S refresh gave a boost to vehicle mix to the higher end and assumed an ASP of $95k. For X, last quarter they said the ASP for X was 30% higher than S. But that was because the early deliveries of X were almost all X90D. I suspect the mix shifted to the lower end a bit in Q2 but still better than the S by 25%, so $118.75k.
Gross margin is a big mystery. For the S, I think it should still be around 25% for the given reasons: a) FX was pretty stable in Q2; b) there was the refresh that may impact GM negatively; c) production rate didn't pick up until the last month so the positive GM effect from production efficiency is likely to be negligible. For the X, we know Q1 X had negative GM. From reports on TMC, it seems they are getting ever better on the QC part so I suspect GM for X in Q2 increased quite a bit. I have no idea how much and just guessed it was 10%. As the delivery mix shifted greatly towards the X, and the X had a higher ASP in my calculations, GM for X is very important and I will put different numbers (0%, 5%, 10%, 15%) here for sensitivity analysis.
For service and others, I'm assuming 30% growth compared to Q1. I'm hesitated to give more on this item as I have not noticed any sustainable news on progress on TE (other than the exact pricing, effects are unlikely to be seen in this Q IMO). Assigning a slightly higher GM of 5% of this part, compared with 4.7% last Q, due to more sales of TE products.
Finally I throw in $70M of ZEV credit. Apparently Tesla is no longer planning on banking on this credit to engineer a surprise positive EPS this year based on what they did last Q. So I assume they just sell whatever they have. And I assume ZEV for the X is higher because they substitute higher emission ICE SUV. Could be totally wrong. So I'll have a $50M ZEV as alternative.
So based on the above assumptions, I have $1.70B non-GAAP revenue and $365M non-GAAP gross profit.
On the cost side (non-GAAP):
RND seems stabilized for quite a while. I simply take the average of the last 4 Q. $156M.
I think SG&A didn't go much higher as Tesla said the main bulk of increase would happen in H2. So I assumed a linear increase in Q2 compared to Q1 compared to last Q4. $285M.
A similar approach was taken for interest income/expenses because I have no idea how these works. Ended up with a net loss of $41M.
Fidelity is showing 145,881,000 shares outstanding. I use this to calculate EPS.
There's also a 22 cents positive adjustment on non-GAAP EPS due to non-cash interest expense last Q. I assume this would be the same this Q.
If GM for X was 0%, ZEV was $50M (worst case scenario), EPS = -$1.09
If GM for X was 15%, ZEV was $70M (best case scenario), EPS = -$0.39
Average of all scenarios, EPS = -$0.74
Analysts consensus according to Fidelity is -$0.51. I think a moderate miss is very likely. But may have already been priced in due to the missed delivery numbers.
On the revenue side:
We know Q2 delivery numbers in detailed breakdown between S and X. We also know they introduced the S60 pretty late and I suspect none of those were delivered and assumed as much in my calculations. I assume the S refresh gave a boost to vehicle mix to the higher end and assumed an ASP of $95k. For X, last quarter they said the ASP for X was 30% higher than S. But that was because the early deliveries of X were almost all X90D. I suspect the mix shifted to the lower end a bit in Q2 but still better than the S by 25%, so $118.75k.
Gross margin is a big mystery. For the S, I think it should still be around 25% for the given reasons: a) FX was pretty stable in Q2; b) there was the refresh that may impact GM negatively; c) production rate didn't pick up until the last month so the positive GM effect from production efficiency is likely to be negligible. For the X, we know Q1 X had negative GM. From reports on TMC, it seems they are getting ever better on the QC part so I suspect GM for X in Q2 increased quite a bit. I have no idea how much and just guessed it was 10%. As the delivery mix shifted greatly towards the X, and the X had a higher ASP in my calculations, GM for X is very important and I will put different numbers (0%, 5%, 10%, 15%) here for sensitivity analysis.
For service and others, I'm assuming 30% growth compared to Q1. I'm hesitated to give more on this item as I have not noticed any sustainable news on progress on TE (other than the exact pricing, effects are unlikely to be seen in this Q IMO). Assigning a slightly higher GM of 5% of this part, compared with 4.7% last Q, due to more sales of TE products.
Finally I throw in $70M of ZEV credit. Apparently Tesla is no longer planning on banking on this credit to engineer a surprise positive EPS this year based on what they did last Q. So I assume they just sell whatever they have. And I assume ZEV for the X is higher because they substitute higher emission ICE SUV. Could be totally wrong. So I'll have a $50M ZEV as alternative.
So based on the above assumptions, I have $1.70B non-GAAP revenue and $365M non-GAAP gross profit.
On the cost side (non-GAAP):
RND seems stabilized for quite a while. I simply take the average of the last 4 Q. $156M.
I think SG&A didn't go much higher as Tesla said the main bulk of increase would happen in H2. So I assumed a linear increase in Q2 compared to Q1 compared to last Q4. $285M.
A similar approach was taken for interest income/expenses because I have no idea how these works. Ended up with a net loss of $41M.
Fidelity is showing 145,881,000 shares outstanding. I use this to calculate EPS.
There's also a 22 cents positive adjustment on non-GAAP EPS due to non-cash interest expense last Q. I assume this would be the same this Q.
If GM for X was 0%, ZEV was $50M (worst case scenario), EPS = -$1.09
If GM for X was 15%, ZEV was $70M (best case scenario), EPS = -$0.39
Average of all scenarios, EPS = -$0.74
Analysts consensus according to Fidelity is -$0.51. I think a moderate miss is very likely. But may have already been priced in due to the missed delivery numbers.
VanE
Member
Here are my (rookie) thoughts on the recent TSLA price movements with regards to Q2 numbers, other FUD and the SMP2, and how this relates to the events in the coming weeks. (I follow TM and TSLA for a few years now, but I only started following the stock very closely in the last few months, so I don't have a lot of experience and I would love to hear your feedback on my thoughts.)
As already mentioned several times in this thread, there is a large and growing gap between the 'sizzle' and 'steak' ratio in the last months. The steak portion decreased while the sizzle part skyrocketed. In the beginning an increase in the sizzle part would mean a rise of TSLA, but it seems that the sizzle part is saturated and isn't able to move the stock price unless something positive happens with the steak part. The only way the sizzle part can have any effect on the stock price is if the steak part is increased first.
- Beginning with the Q2 numbers, TM didn't deliver the promised amounts of vehicles last quarter, but told that they could produce more vehicles on the same production line (2400 p.w. instead of 2000). This started the widening of the sizzle and steak gap.
- Than there was a few weeks of FUD that had almost no affect on the stock price. The reason of this is because it was mostly FUD about the sizzle part of the equation (AP etc.), not about production problems. And since the sizzle part was already saturated a decrease of it couldn't really affect the stock price since there was enough sizzle left to saturate the steak part.
- The SMP2 was an highly anticipated event, but it contained only sizzle (a lot of sizzle!) and no steak at all (I had hoped that Musk would hint to the current production rate or something substantial). And because of this, it had exactly 0 effect on the stock price (if you disregard the rise in anticipation to the plan).
Why this whole boring story? I think this indicates how the stock price will react to the upcoming events.
Next Friday is the GF party. Musk hinted several times that there are already some machines that 'spew batteries out with the rate of a machine gun'. If these machines are shown next Friday and it looks like the factory is really operational that would be a great steak. It could thus have a great effect on the stock price. If there isn't much activity going it would give the shorts a lot of FUD material, since TM once again had great plans, but lacking execution (their words, not mine!).
After that there is the Q2 CF, it will have disappointing numbers, but might have a great outlook on the Q3 results. But I am really doubting it will have a positive effect on the stock price, because everybody already expects Q3 to be great and it is only more sizzle. No real change in the stock price is a pretty good scenario for that event in my opinion. (This would all change if they announce anything significant in regards to the merger. I have no idea what would happen in that case.)
Begin september will the Q3 delivery numbers be released. IF they are as expected (>~24.000) it could have a great effect on the stock price. Depending on the merger I expect that IF a short squeeze would happen it would happen somewhere around here. The perfect set-up would be a successful vote at the end of august followed almost directly by good delivery numbers who potentially could make Q3 GAAP positive?!
As already mentioned several times in this thread, there is a large and growing gap between the 'sizzle' and 'steak' ratio in the last months. The steak portion decreased while the sizzle part skyrocketed. In the beginning an increase in the sizzle part would mean a rise of TSLA, but it seems that the sizzle part is saturated and isn't able to move the stock price unless something positive happens with the steak part. The only way the sizzle part can have any effect on the stock price is if the steak part is increased first.
- Beginning with the Q2 numbers, TM didn't deliver the promised amounts of vehicles last quarter, but told that they could produce more vehicles on the same production line (2400 p.w. instead of 2000). This started the widening of the sizzle and steak gap.
- Than there was a few weeks of FUD that had almost no affect on the stock price. The reason of this is because it was mostly FUD about the sizzle part of the equation (AP etc.), not about production problems. And since the sizzle part was already saturated a decrease of it couldn't really affect the stock price since there was enough sizzle left to saturate the steak part.
- The SMP2 was an highly anticipated event, but it contained only sizzle (a lot of sizzle!) and no steak at all (I had hoped that Musk would hint to the current production rate or something substantial). And because of this, it had exactly 0 effect on the stock price (if you disregard the rise in anticipation to the plan).
Why this whole boring story? I think this indicates how the stock price will react to the upcoming events.
Next Friday is the GF party. Musk hinted several times that there are already some machines that 'spew batteries out with the rate of a machine gun'. If these machines are shown next Friday and it looks like the factory is really operational that would be a great steak. It could thus have a great effect on the stock price. If there isn't much activity going it would give the shorts a lot of FUD material, since TM once again had great plans, but lacking execution (their words, not mine!).
After that there is the Q2 CF, it will have disappointing numbers, but might have a great outlook on the Q3 results. But I am really doubting it will have a positive effect on the stock price, because everybody already expects Q3 to be great and it is only more sizzle. No real change in the stock price is a pretty good scenario for that event in my opinion. (This would all change if they announce anything significant in regards to the merger. I have no idea what would happen in that case.)
Begin september will the Q3 delivery numbers be released. IF they are as expected (>~24.000) it could have a great effect on the stock price. Depending on the merger I expect that IF a short squeeze would happen it would happen somewhere around here. The perfect set-up would be a successful vote at the end of august followed almost directly by good delivery numbers who potentially could make Q3 GAAP positive?!
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Short term options are gambling, not investing. You might as well go to casino and put money on black or red. Expected value is slightly negative as with options.
In casino house always wins, in stock options market maker always wins.
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Q3 lasts through September, so the delivery numbers will be released only in October!
Otherwise, I agree that the only thing that smells like steak short term is the GF opening party. Having the cell line running would be good but is expected I guess, also the invitation said there would be test rides - rides point to Model 3 (as for S and X anyone can get test drives), and it would be interesting if they still have the same three prototypes from the reveal that have been spotted for a while.
As for the SCTY/TSLA merger, I only see the technical thing of getting shares back from shorts for voting to have an obvious effect on share price. Seems most people are unsure about the merger, so if it goes through as expected I don´t expect a rise. On the other hand, if it doesn´t it might be seen as weakness of management and have a negative short term effect on share price.
And once I am at it - I´ve been thinking about the sizzle vs. steak, too. I don´t think there has been too little steak from Tesla long term - the opposite is true. But there has always been even more sizzle, which makes people expect more steak than they get and that causes a negative perception.
sundaymorning
Active Member
Sizzle= short term
Steak= long term
If tesla misses target by 10%, yet growth was 50% yoy, then what is it, sizzle or steak? If tesla continues to miss 10% annually, but grows 50% yoy for the next 10 years, then which is it? Sizzle or steak.
Short term vs Long term perspective...
Steak= long term
If tesla misses target by 10%, yet growth was 50% yoy, then what is it, sizzle or steak? If tesla continues to miss 10% annually, but grows 50% yoy for the next 10 years, then which is it? Sizzle or steak.
Short term vs Long term perspective...
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