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You know, there's the innovator's dilemma and there's the trader's dilemma.
It goes like this:
- SP up, uh no, can't go in, price too high as limit set too low. Panic! Hope it triggers so I won't miss out.
- SP down, limit triggers, SP continues trending down. Panic! Hope I can exit out and soon.
As a fellow trader, I'm sure the above serves as basis for your posts.
Know this - TSLA, being high beta, volatile, subject to the mercy of the market's irrationality will always be an interesting, and gut wrenching ride. Perhaps the minute by minute questions on whether it will go up or will it go down can be kept to a minimum.
Having said that, I'm sure the smart folks and experienced traders here will certainly opine if there is something relevant that they see for all of us to consider for our trades, without much prompting.
It has been an incredible run for TSLA in the last few weeks...and this last week in particular.
Many people I know are taking profit...or took profit.
To the new people on the thread And to TSLA...As Was posted up thread....this is a volitile stock. Both bulls and bears are fanatical about their positions on TM, so TSLA is subject to big swings.
If you are long term holder of stock and believe in the mission then hold tight. If you are trying to catch lightning in a bottle with trading the stock or using options....you might end up trying to catch falling knives as well.
Many people I know are taking profit...or took profit.
To the new people on the thread And to TSLA...As Was posted up thread....this is a volitile stock. Both bulls and bears are fanatical about their positions on TM, so TSLA is subject to big swings.
If you are long term holder of stock and believe in the mission then hold tight. If you are trying to catch lightning in a bottle with trading the stock or using options....you might end up trying to catch falling knives as well.
doggusfluffy
Closed
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
He is implying that fewer reservations will convert into sales because of the higher price. His track record in general and with TSLA in particular is stellar, so we should listen to him.
Options traders should be able to get this point without difficulty:
M3 reservations are like sell-out tickets to a Rolling Stones concert next year. Within reason so long as the Stones show up at the gig no matter what they do on stage the value of the ticket sales is basically secure.
However each time the Stones add some extra performance guarantee to the billing even it is something perfectly doable like - Performing 'Wild Horses' then the refund risk associated with selling the option to attend the concert goes up and chance of the Stones retaining the options premium goes down - dramatically If it is a performance guarantee of something that could prove materially difficult to deliver precisely as promised.
Guaranteeing the world's most stunning laser show of all time when the concert is a sell out anyway would be pretty daft compared with just delivering a great laser show on the night to ensue custoners rush the box office for the next gig.
Very apt analogy.
Of course, Tesla is working on expanding the size of the stadium. Continually. But the execution risk is the pre-show we're watching in the meantime. The side show, Tesla Energy could also provide some additional entertainment, as the Gigafactory first phase is expected to make some cells well before Model 3 launch. And the current show, the Model X might have been written off a bit thus far and the ticket sales for that might be surprising.
flankspeed8
Member
I think the inference would be that thousands of people who put a reservation down on a car that they thought would cost $35k will have second thoughts when they realize it will be closer to 50k or whatever and therefore would not follow through with a purchase because it would be out of their price range. JMO...
Epic fail on passing on the numbers. How can someone go from 325k to 375k?
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
Phil LeBeau is reporting right now on CNBC the 325,000 saying "I think nobody expected more than 300,000 reservations in only one week", and his tone was very positive.
Indeed. The average selling price (ASP) would only rise well above $35,000, if many Model 3 customers voluntarily choose pricey options and willingly pay for them. That would imply strong demand and high profit margins. People more price conscious can still go with a basic $35,000 model.
One must wonder about either the motives or competence of some analysts.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
Elon stated that for $35,000 you will not be able to buy a better car. If they are willing to drop $35K then there will be no better alternative on the market and the argument is invalid. If they were hoping to get $15,000 of options for free and are disappointed then yeah, there will be some cancellations,
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
The risk that Tesla doesn't deliver 325,000 vehicles in the first year isn't much of a risk. Even as the tax credits fall away assuming no change to the statute, there's still state incentives in various states. So the question becomes, is a Model 3 competitive with no incentives at all? I believe the answer is yes, which has to be unsettling for VAG/BMW/Lexus/Infiniti.
Go comparison shop a Q50, a BMW 3 series, an Audi A4, etc. Without incentives, the Model 3 is a terrific competitor for the price. That is the real tipping point. Obviously, Tesla should also improve the price competitiveness of the S/X similarly as we approach the end of incentives and hopefully the lower ASP is offset by improved cost efficiency. Obviously Tesla has a lot of cost efficiency yet to be realized simply because they don't build enough vehicles yet.
Go comparison shop a Q50, a BMW 3 series, an Audi A4, etc. Without incentives, the Model 3 is a terrific competitor for the price. That is the real tipping point. Obviously, Tesla should also improve the price competitiveness of the S/X similarly as we approach the end of incentives and hopefully the lower ASP is offset by improved cost efficiency. Obviously Tesla has a lot of cost efficiency yet to be realized simply because they don't build enough vehicles yet.
hockeythug
Active Member
Phil is usually pretty positive regarding his Tesla coverage and fights back when the anchors/guests say FUD.
The Verge isn't really news, it just poses as such.
The amount of things they and Engadget get wrong makes your head spin. I imagine them all sitting in dirty underwear on a couch somewhere just pumping out articles.
Yes, it means that the perception of volatility in the stock price, which is factored into the time value of LEAPs quite heavily, has gone up, even though the stock itself has gone down.
I sold my short term lots and this week's covered call after the numbers broke out. Tempted to do this yesterday but was deterred by the number.
My thoughts on the short term:
While there are still chances for good news breaking out, I doubt anything substantial (solid progress on expanding production) would be released before Q1 ER. The stock has run a great course so far. I would rather see it take a breather for a month. Technically, if we are super strong, we may assume the uptrend after hitting 255. But I think it is more likely to have a 10% off from recent high which points to ~245. Let the shorts regroup, wire money to their account, and refuel the short interest. We need them when we break 300.
My thoughts on the short term:
While there are still chances for good news breaking out, I doubt anything substantial (solid progress on expanding production) would be released before Q1 ER. The stock has run a great course so far. I would rather see it take a breather for a month. Technically, if we are super strong, we may assume the uptrend after hitting 255. But I think it is more likely to have a 10% off from recent high which points to ~245. Let the shorts regroup, wire money to their account, and refuel the short interest. We need them when we break 300.
Don't know but, I received a call yesterday from Tesla and was told our X delivery would be delayed approximately 2 weeks as there is a reported concern with the 3 row seats. We were originally scheduled to take delivery 4/8.
Analysts may be aware of a car model's average selling price (ASP), but a typical car buyer is not. The analyst in question apparently does not realize that. A customer sees the base price and the price of the options in which he might be interested. In the case of a Model 3, even a basic $35,000 model may be a more desirable product that a comparably priced ICE car.
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